Pailin's Trading Corner

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Weasel Tracker
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Okay! Now I'm short

Okay! Now I'm short silver. I just needed these metals to tap that resistance line

for gold...

Weasel Tracker
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dammit draghi! Have you been

dammit draghi! Have you been able to exit yet Happy?

HappyNow
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Hi Weasel.  Been too busy to

Hi Weasel.  Been too busy to post while I'm not making any trades.  I'm still all short and yes it sucks to have been on the wrong side. First time this year but it's a doozy.  I still don't think this is the big up but now that summer is over a good size dip  also unlikely.  Continuing to hold.

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csquared13
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Nothing to add from me except

Nothing to add from me except I noticed something on the Monthlies for the indices:

RSI making lower highs = potential weakness. (in the context of price action of course..) October seasonal  should be a doozy.

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HappyNow
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Silver, come to Papa...

Silver, come to Papa...

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Ah.  So.  Back in Black.

Ah.  So.  Back in Black.  Well with some of it anyway.  Sold for profit at Ag $17.15 what was supposed to be the quick tranche but took about 3 weeks instead.  Continuing to hold the rest of the shorts.  Did I miss some opportunity?  You bet.  Am I sore?  Nope.

Tony, local builders can't source lumber, it's not just price it's scarcity as Texas and Florida rebuild.   The price of windows just went up  30% as well.  I did think about lumber, I didn't think about windows, invested in neither though as I just don't know enough about the trade.   Hope you and yours are seeing light at the end of the tunnel now.

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The probability that silver

The probability that silver turns here is very low.  Far more likely that $16.50 is in the cards, maybe as low as $16.   All my trades are in profit at this moment and I'll look to exit shorts over price/time and find a spot to start long.

Weasel, haven't heard from you in a while.  If you stayed short and rode out the hump you'll be in good shape here as well.

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Weasel Tracker
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meh

I got shaken out! Out well! I was not comfortable holding after gold and silver passed their long-term resistance area. You have balls of steel my friend!

I'm looking to load up on silver long when gold hits $1,250. 

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Well I got to steel by some

Well I got to steel by some sad experience.  I definitely won't give anyone advice and I can't really explain my trades but from some combination of staring at charts and reading, including the setup thread, Martin Armstrong etc.  I post here mostly to keep myself honest and as a way to help keep me from believing my own crap.  I will say that it was hard to sit on my hands and wait out the rise.   That's why I will sell easily in this zone if I like the gain I can get.  I have gotten feedback in the past that I exit too soon with too small a gain for the risk involved in the trade for example here where I waited out the losing position which was significant risk and now will sell sooner than later on the reversal.  However it keeps me sane and my rate of return suits me very much for the time I have available to spend on this.  Daytrading is just not my strength.

You have the right idea about the entry point, I think although since I go in tranches I would consider a slightly higher first entry.

Actually if you look back on your trades you might see you had the right idea on the trade and didn't hold long enough, or weren't satisfied with a quick small profit and then got washed out when you might have held.  Recommend you review.

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Short is scary place to be.

Short is scary place to be. If it was a long position, I would have held. I would have jumped back in when she went below $17.70, but I had a busy past couple weeks.

I'm looking forward to silver bottoming out though!

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Weasel Tracker wrote: Short

Weasel Tracker wrote:

Short is scary place to be. If it was a long position, I would have held. I would have jumped back in when she went below $17.70, but I had a busy past couple weeks.

I'm looking forward to silver bottoming out though!

Fair enough and that was a scare for me as well.  Thinking the bigger picture is up so...what if this isn't going down soon?    I was confident there would be some dip to give me a decent exit, at worst a small loss.   

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HappyNow
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Sold about half my short at

Sold about half my remaining short at Ag = $18.82.

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Silver (and Gold) are now at

The way I read it Silver (and Gold) have moved to price which is not support from the height of last peak.

Weasel the 1250 you were thinking about is high probability and 1200 ish probable.

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Weasel Tracker
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Gold chart

This is what I see in Gold Happy...

https://i.imgur.com/AV7NKMk.png

JAL
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The Dirty Little Secret of EU Military Integration...

http://facts4eu.org/news_sep2_2017.shtml#trt

http://www.ukcolumn.org/article/exclusive-eu-take-control-british-nuclear-deterrent

http://www.ukcolumn.org/series/eu-military-unification

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Just a quick check in, been a

Just a quick check in, been a few weeks since I've even logged on.

Flooding sucks. FEMA is a joke. Thank God it didnt get in the house, but it nuked my nonflood insured driveway and job. My boys mucked houses for neighbors while i attended to the aging fleet. My boss laid me off since people are not coming for routine dental...tough to care about a dental cleaning when your house is gutted. So many have been impacted by harvey.

As i type my wife is taking her last attempt home inspector test. Either she passes and we launch together in a week, or I launch Monday morning solo. Ill know in about 2 hours. The only thing I lack is my faa drone license, all else is equipped and ready to go less advertising and marketing.

Been watching trading from a distance. Still not back at it and may not get to it until spring. It's near where I exited less a good move and comeback.

Im wore out. Been a demanding year. But daylight shines anew and a new chapter of my life begins. I may have to moonlight in the dental world while I get my inspection legs under me, but the big hurdles have been cleared.

GLTA

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Tony you are right it went

Tony you are right it went up, way down, up and is now on a down, or about where you left.

Sorry to hear that FEMA is of little help and that in addition the dental business has fallen off.  Makes sense as you say but still tough.  

Are people still buying and selling homes in the affected areas?

Hope your wife passed so you can go ahead as a team and keep the income all in the family.

We had been looking at property in Sint Maarten as we love it there and one day will want to winter somewhere warmer.  That's off the table now, I wouldn't want to be an absentee owner or landlord in the face of this and won't be retiring for a while yet.   Renting looks way more attractive.

Trading will be here whenever you want.  I can tell you from experience you will need to think differently if you don't have the time to be always near the button (or don't want that stress).   I would never go back to trying to make significant income from day or almost-day trading.

Good to hear from you.

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She passed! It'll delay me a

She passed! It'll delay me a little but the comarketing is so worth it.

A few months back I was forced to acknowledge I couldn't accomplish all I needed to and daytrade...no way. Its been a decent break, but i still want to get back in. Not until I complete the transition tho.

RE activity died for about 2 weeks but is coming back. Both my inspector friends are busy. 

I've worked since 1985...never had govt assist and have paid more taxes than I'd like to count. The one time i ask for help, no help for the working man from fema... but they offered a SBA loan that required a forensic financial application...literally they ask what/how many appliances are in your home...so invasive. As usual ill do it on my own. My next door neighbor who got a foot of water in the house was told the same thing...both spouses work in that home too. So frustrating to watch the tax/govt system pick winners and losers...

Property as an absentee landlord is tough in CONUS, multiples worse on an island in disaster country. But I will admit to a desire to vrbo or bnb a carribean condo Id like to own...many advantages, but hi risk. 

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HappyNow
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Yeah, don't you love it when

Yeah, don't you love it when you finally reach out to take a helping hand with obvious justification and they want you to get your pants down for an inspection first!

Glad your wife passed and the two of you will be able to move forward.

Only 2 weeks of slow on the RE front.  Surprises me but good news for your business.

Yes we were thinking carribean vrbo or bnb but honestly once you consider off season it's not a money-maker esp if you can't spend enough time local to get to know the trustworthy types. 

Trading: Still short.  For now.

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HappyNow
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Looking to silver taking a

Looking to silver taking a clear downturn in Comex hours instead of drifting up.  Pattern break is due.

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