The setup for the big trade

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UncleFester
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Meant to say that #10351 (regime change) was a top notch post.  I've been under impression that the Yuan/RMB will take the place of the Yen.  Like Japan in the 1980s, China is the export powerhouse...yes?  What if price doesn't get to wave B top until your late2019 inflection?

To all...I am sorry for posting so many charts, some of which are in error.  But I am learning a new tool that Pete has pointed me to and it is liberating.  This could make the case for ~1425 this year and ~1525 end of 2019.  This is speculation of course...

https://s.tradingview.com/x/G15JjtNL/ 

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duplicate

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FWIW

Gold retraced (so far) to the .236R level of the whole rally from 1211.10 basis Dec Gold.  Exactly, to 1326.7.  Sometimes prices go to the Fibs.

It's a very fluid situation and it could go either way.  The daily mls are all up, which is bullish to be sure.  By contrast, the 60m chart shows downsloping mls, and the far h of the last 60m channel got zoomed also (a "power zoom" on the 60m), but we just had a zoom up this evening, and a 60m p2 buy op may present itself (this evening?).  This could be very bullish if the new zoomed 60m ml is not reached, or at least not closed under on the hourly chart, by the time the p2 forms.

If a 60m rally happens, price "should" reach the 60m zoomed ml at least.

The daily chart shows a zoom down, which brings the "zoom rule" into play:  The last high was the high for a while, or the next high is it for a while, with 80% certainty.  20% of the time you get continuation higher and the zoom low is not reached again (the "zoom failure").  You get 5 or more pivots further, usually, with the "zoom failure".

Note that the 60m rally is only 38% of the drop from the high, and it occurred at the mlh, hence it got sold immediately. So it was a weak rally.  Just what happens from here is anyone's guess.

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Hello Byz and Eclectic, long

Hello Byz, Eclectic and gold slut, long time no see, nice of you to post your thoughts. No disrespect to regular posters, that was not my point. I just looked for the doozie post, but I couldn't find it. Then I noticed many posts from old nicks.

argentus maximus wrote:

Not investment advise. Now you know one reason why I'm not joining the PM bull wagon for silver at the moment. But that's a temporary state of affairs naturally.

Silver down and Gold up? Am I the only one who is confused?

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/627733#comment-627733

It says September but the date is October? DD/MM/YY? Swedish is always YY/MM/DD, start big and go smaller smiley

Stockmarkets about to breakout according to some experts ... I don't know like I said I am confused ...

If anyone knows Mr Bob Moriarty, please send him my "Thank you very much for quick profits" regard

http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=v.abn

O´boy I am heavy in Silver, inspired by GSR and the avatar of a Roman Silver coin :-P I guess I am way too early here.

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#Argentus What if you adjust

#Argentus

What if you adjust the topchart, the gray a little bit to the right or the red to the left?

Sirtitan45
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Great info Eclectic! Thanks

Great info Eclectic! Thanks for sharing.

brokerk22
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How many

different charts and scenarios can you guys come up with.  Its fucking ridiculous and redundant.  Ill sum your shit up.  We arent going anywhere in the price of gold or silver forever.  There you fucking go.  Now go to sleep.

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#broker If it were easy,

#broker

If it were easy, everyone would be millionaires. What happened during 2001-2011?

UncleFester
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Petroyuan?

One can see the pieces falling into place, yes?  Relating to AM's Carolan tweet:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Commodities/China-sees-new-world-order-with-oil-benchmark-backed-by-gold?n_cid=NARAN1507

http://www.atimes.com/article/real-brics-bombshell/

And then, Putin delivers the clincher; “Russia shares the BRICS countries’ concerns over the unfairness of the global financial and economic architecture, which does not give due regard to the growing weight of the emerging economies. We are ready to work together with our partners to promote international financial regulation reforms and to overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies.”

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Solsson
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Tx Fester for the link, so

Tx Fester for the link, so the Third World War is already settled without a single shot being fired.

Who stated that the fourth world war would be fought with sticks and stones? I am not so sure about that anymore ...

argentus maximus
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Well I see that. But if I do

Well I see that.

But if I do that I am tinkering with the data before drawing conclusions. Not the best way to get dependable results.

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argentus maximus
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Financially, China is a full

Financially, China is a full member of the club.

Economically and militarily there are areas up for grabs, but at central bank level it's all arranged.

Of course, the best arrangements, even of the most powerful institutions, are hostage to the unfolding of events. After that point they have to improvise. Thus they are simultaneously planning, implementing, and improvising different policies in what have been termed data dependency. Translation - data dependency: improvisation to keep things going until retirement and obtain full pension before it falls apart.

Gold:SDR includes the Yuan in the basket....

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UncleFester
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Pete

If price doesn't hold the fork, there should be support ~5 bucks below it.  1318ish in this chart.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/WSndoRTk/

And if 4 ends this week 9/15...then wave five could run to 9/28 and be the same length as wave 3 (ie. wave 3 would not be the shortest).

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argentus maximus
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Not too many posts .... good

Not too many posts .... good stuff is uncommon. smiley

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UncleFester
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Cheers

(Raises glass)

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argentus maximus
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EW for GLD not yet dismissed

EW for GLD not yet dismissed ....

in C up to end big 4 up

So if this is playing, we are nearing end of C up to end 4 sideways-up, preparatory to 5 down.

And that means either near end of c up or in 4 of c with a last upswing to end c up

In which case gold will approach short term resistance and break out, but stop at a harder larger scale o/h resistance shortly after. But 5s in gold can extend .... Don't anticipate ..

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argentus maximus
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Naturally I'd prefer if we

Naturally I'd prefer if we are in three up having completed big one up big two down.

But the first upswing in my chart above, labelled A, Dec 2015-Mar2017 .... that is a funny looking five. It can be impulsive, but it looks (to me at the moment) more like an upwards 5-3-5

the obvious complaint I expect is: "Norman, that wave B down in four you have 5-3-5-3-5 (a-b-c-d-e) why isn't iot 3-3-3-3-5. or 5-5-5-5-5 if it's supposed to be a triangle?" My response, as good as I can make to that is: This is a currency. On the other side of the cross it might look more orthodox.

Anyway, there is a stop under long term longs c.123 and also c 125 basis this chart. We can go to the other side (at some rally) when GLD gets below stops. And that gap down? That hints of a wave 3 up overboughtness being snapped back. But if it is a 1 down and bigger c up is done. Watch out below.

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Surely they could have done a

American Flag in Distress

Surely they could have done a better job in managing the country, but perhaps it was not the intention. I suppose it started after the meeting on Jekyll island. Be careful for what you wish for, not a big fan of Russia and China. I've heard that Russian kale is good, but that's about it. Finland slapped the big red Russian bear in the face during the Finnish winter war,  my Finnish friend and I celebrate it every year by drinking a wolf paw.

Cheers, 

(raises glass)

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Many thanks for introducing me to EW analysis.  I'm curious...how many alternative counts do you keep up with and how far back in time?  If you were to start over, would you just start up from someone else's count, or would you start from scratch?

I find it fascinating that once you start to see the nested 5, 8, 11 waves in financial data, you can't help but see them everywhere.  Rhythm and price indeed.

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argentus maximus
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Well I wouldn't be without

Well I wouldn't be without the insight that Elliott Wave provides. But I recognize the limitations of never knowing which scenario until I discover I just got in and now it's a three of three breakout I am aboard.

Bad entry or slippage at entry and exit is the enemy of multiple attempts to get aboard, but EW does make intelligent stop setting possible, and that's the exit partially figured out.  So what about the entry and multiple scenarios, that's where the cycles come in. They confirm.

The cycles are themselves quasi, amorphous, flickering and turn upside down when least expected, which it lts own set of problems. But combine cycles with Elliott and bad trades start to become less frequent. not that it got easier, it's still the hardest thing, frought with doubt and fear. And excitement trying to take over when fear lets up for a moment!

If I had to say, I'd say cycles first and Elliott second, but both required. The G-V helps me avoid false signals because the better stuff seems to start or end on a G-V.

At the core all these are working with support and resistance expressed in both price and time.

Alt counts ....  I sort of leave them all hanging there on a mental shelf awaiting for when I can walk over, dust the one I want off for immediate use. I'm always willing to look over somebody elses' count in case it's a possibility I failed to consider! For the alt count scenario reduction process I don't try to get stuck on one timeframe, and slide up or down to find clarity is it's not on my scale. Clarity, or a certain amount of it,  is always on a nearby timeframe if you look for it. Then try to not go against whatever that says in the chosen timeframe. Maybe 2- 3 or 4 big alternatives on a 3-10 year scale, and the shorter term internals that fit into those to construct them?

Your fanlines are good. What you do with yours is very very similar to how I do mine. Basically they express momentum accelleration and decay without resorting to oscillators. So we are still looking at the price, not a separate indicator, and that's a big improvement imo because the S&R is there with the fanlines intersecting.

I hope that makes sense.

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