The setup for the big trade

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Byzantium
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@ Solsson

as a member of the 'etc,' still here, just lurking.

Hopefully we'll soon have plenty to talk about. Andrew Maguire seems to think so. He believes that the cartel is about to fall apart. Indeed, that it is happening right now.....

gold slut
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@Solsson

I drop by here most days although I am also a lurker.  As my uncle used to say:

"When the mouth opens the learning stops".

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Three of my miners: @ Slosson

My 2-cents and other comments about Goldtent TA.   I see Rambus as the next generation of sporting the E&M methods with his longer term modifications and projections.  Not very useful though imho for positioning and trading tactics.  My favorite used to be Plunger as he carried the three stages of a bull/bear market to another depth of analysis, especially with the PM's, his motto being 'be right and sit tight'.   I became disillusioned when he abandoned this concept.  As you cited Spock, has become my favorite.  Seems his strength is the compelling level of confidence he displays with his cycle work, especially the mastery of Hurst; whose work I could never figure out.  Spock I think makes a better case than either of the other two vis a vis the long term trend in commodities and the K-wave.  I'm tempted to sub to Spock just for his long term analysis, although he's already given his views and I am certainly not into monitoring any of those 'rocks'.   I truly admire his level of confidence and the depth and breadth of his work on cycles.   Graddy strikes me as an eccentric type of chartist and shares his painstaking analysis and compelling conclusions based on all types of charts.  Maybe more useful than the work of Rambus.  Again, his level of confidence is unwavering, as is Spock's.  Also worth mentioning is the chart work of NorthStar.  I think this guy is some type of scientist which explains his unique quantative projections.    I find his work interesting because his background is in science and that provides another useful perspective imho.  

The above comments are both simple and low-tech in nature, and the information is available to all who choose to search althogh some computer skills and data management skills are necessary.

Graddy has called us 'lucky bastards' for being around to take part in the opportunity of a lifetime.  The question remains is whether the 'setup' has already occurred? 

Again, just my 2-cents, but I am somewhat skeptical.  At minimum, I think we are on our way to circa 1525 (Wave B of C) but after that I'm open minded for a final C wave.  Another EW analyst ose work I respect think the price moves from the lows have been impulsive and new highs (aboe 1913) are coming.  I personally don't see prices retreating back down to circa 1045 so maybe any C wave will be muted in price.

I'd certainly like the TA trio to be proven correct but as always, time will tell.  

(Please excuse any typos and the hastily composed narrative for any lack of consistency.)

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Hey Pete

As I stated before, I don’t day trade.  So what I developed was a general or visual technique to project from the bottoms.  It has been particularly useful this year but was useless last year…???  The simple procedure is in the picture below.  One will get slightly different results depending on whether intraday candles or closes are used, so I just use round number estimates like below.  I combine this with Fibo retraces as well as what I call tug-o-war magnets to get a ‘feel’ for how long an impulsive wave will run (ie. 1270 and 1285 magnets gave me 1330 and 1360 as possible highs for this wave 3 from 1210 low).  But that puts this run near last year’s high, which is also a possibile pull back level.  Price hit 1257 on Friday so that might be it, I don’t know.  I use all of the above to make my calls and manage my risk/stops.

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edit

Au price hit 1357 not 1257, too late to edit.

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Hey Pete #2

Can't tell yet if this is wave 4 down or just a return to a trading range for wave 3.  So I am waiting which is hard to do at times.  To generate these trading ranges, I connect the 0 and 2 lows then draw a parallel line at wave 1 top.  This presumes one has the count right...?

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UncleFester
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Bonus Chart

Here's an old FesterFan that was broken in June but may still be at play.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/4SIZOgvx/

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UncleFester
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Bonus Chart #2

And here's the one that brought me back from my disasterous last year.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/evDuumOh/

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UncleFester
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Hey Pete #3

A couple of choices for making the next pivot.  Green is 1.62 Fan, blue is trading range with midpoint dotted, and a pitchfork thrown in to boot.  This etool is kind of addictive.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/eMIiHAgH/

PS.  These last two random titles were almost "Easy Dumbo" and "Am I high?"

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@UncleFester

Uncle, I really appreciate your taking the time to produce those charts and post them.  Thanks for elucidating your Fester Fan method.

I have some questions (and will probably have more as I study your charts more deeply), but what data series are you using?  At the current time, to me Dec Gold makes sense for trend study because it has by far the largest open interest of all the contracts.  That's the way I was taught.  But that's Comex futures.  ("Gold reached 1357"--but I didn't find a nearby futures contract where that was the gold high.  In Dec it was 1362.40).  Are you using a spot Forex number?  Is this a proprietary number from TradingView?

For me the data series used is very important for geometric work.

I like your title considerations wink

UncleFester
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Pete

I have a Scottrade acct with a few tens of thousands that I trade with on a weekly and monthly basis.  Plus, I'm a cheap bastard and kind of slow...old dog, new tricks and all.  Hence, I use Goldprice.org which is free and spot, not futures.  When I'm looking at spot and you are trading futures...it can make discussion difficult, yes?  (I may look like a super genius when I say <1303 spot and you see 1302.95 Dec gold pivot).

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Pete
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Uncle

Are you trading unlevered spot gold then?  Or are you trading a futures contract with Scottrade?

Does goldprice.org offer real time data charts for free?  That's a big plus; cmegroup.com offers 10m delayed data but their free TV software creates a such a nice, functional chart for the futures.  My IB account provides free data in real time for futures contracts, and I use Amibroker as RT charting software.  But Ami's graphics are primitive imo compared to TV's. 

So I try to keep up both charts.  That gets clumsy at times.

As for "difficult discussion", you can just mention what pivot you are trading, or "Friday's high", and I'll know what you are referring to. At least now I know you are using some sort of spot number (although I hear there are several "spots" going on out there...).  Most of the data is either Forex spot or Nymex futures, I think, for gold trading in the U.S.  Stockcharts.com uses the spot futures (as defined by cmegroup.com) to create its $gold chart, for example (it has the recent high as 1362.40, which is the Dec ct. high).

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The recent top/review

The overview of the recent high is here.  The close-up with discussion is here.

Current thinking:  None of the recent daily m0 pivot pairs have a down sloping ml that can be used as an initial ml for a correction channel.  There is one on the 60m chart that I think might work. It's not sloping down much either but it's all there is with a downslope.

A 60m chart offering is here.

It looks like price is going to reach wl#1 of this iml, perhaps in the wee hours in the U.S.  If it reaches there and turns upward, odds are good that price will return to the iml.  This implies the gap (high side of 1337.1) may be closed on the next (assumed) rally.  That rally would probably take more than a day.  Be sure to take a profit there!

The 60m chart shows a cluster of resistances and lines that I think will halt this decline (which would be a m2 gap pivot low (stronger than a min-1 pivot low), suitable for a counter-trend short-term trade).  If the risk is low on a reversal (preferably 1 hour rb), I might take it, if I'm awake to see it.  About 1323.0 is the price of wl#1 down there.  If there's a rally back to the gap, that's a 24 point rally.  And if that happens, from there I'd look to reverse to short.

A much better trade was to sell up near 1362 on that 1hr reversal bar, because it's a much more important pivot, potentially.  Holding a position from that short entry could prove very profitable.

Be Warned that some sellers (and occasionally buyers) are so vicious with their market-busting, (mostly) bid-stack assaults that fills on stop-losses can be utterly miserable.  I've been victim to two of these of about 20 and 30 ticks each.  Ouch!  It shows you how illiquid this market can be, even during regular, day time NY hours, not just overnight.  "To be fair", I've not been monitoring this at potential major pivot extremes.  But to be filled several points away from your stop (not ticks away) is shocking, and the damage is more to long players generally than to shorts, because of bank bias and manipulation attempts.

This unpleasant fact is alone good reason to stick to playing potential major pivots only (reducing your exposure to these nasties) and stay out of shorter-term plays in this market.  By contrast, ES is far more liquid (the nasties lurk there too).

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Pete

I trade in and out of GLD and dabble in DGP only when I am confident.  I always assumed that goldprice.org was using COMEX spot data, not sure if it is delayed.  I used to print it out and use a calculator and ruler to set up my trades.  I use it to watch price during work too.

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Two forks

Looks like this is wave 4 down, and where the two forks meet tomorrow morning maybe a good buy near 1320 in this chart.  Wave 5 should be the shortest, so I ended the chart at 9/22.  I'm guessing it will stop near last year's high.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/G910hqra/

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Scratch that

Posted an erred chart, sorry.  The 2 forks crossed  last night at 1315.  So wave 4 could finish today...???

https://s.tradingview.com/x/TFDJcFCX/

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After

Be careful if this is the beginning of wave 5 of 3, because this scenario is also possible.  Mind those stops.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/rbcY2q1y/

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Bounce

Looks like price wants to bounce of 0.786 retrace from last year's high.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/MKt1eIrY/

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Extension?

Price will have to extend to get to 1500ish wave B top by end of year.  https://s.tradingview.com/x/2UobLqLT/

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Weekly silver projection

Weekly silver projection update

I said I would resume posting this when the summer lull was over.  The chart uses SLV as proxy for silver spot.

There are two main scenarios that seem to stand out among the multitude of possibilities:

One looks far more accurate currently to my eyes, and the possibility of inversion or switch to the other should be guarded against. I left the cursor timeline over upcoming significant dates for both of these scenarios.

Also noticeable is that there seems to be a larger cycle, or swing visible than these projections, even though the projection is constructed so that it usually under-portrays the estimated coming market price swings. I regard the arrival of a larger scale harmonic as a significant observation. It will possibly reduce and magnify the swings of lower scale which increase or decrease as a consequence.

Not investment advise. Now you know one reason why I'm not joining the PM bull wagon for silver at the moment. But that's a temporary state of affairs naturally.

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