The setup for the big trade

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Pete
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Gold major pivot high

was probably made on Friday.  Two forms of convincing evidence here.  And another important one here.  The 60m chart also confirms.  I will wait for Sunday PM trade to take a short position if/as price allows; decided to not be short over the weekend.  This is a time when you may want to hold one short during the week at least, anticipating a (probable Major) pivot low.

More technical details:

The three rallies in Dec Gold share a channel pattern where the 0-y line is the lower parallel and the upper parallel is drawn from the pivot high furthest from the 0-y.  The presence of the Andrews major ML spikes the odds of a top.

The 60m chart seems to confirm a turn.  The strong 4 day rally shows just 5 min-3 60m pivots that culminated 5 ticks beyond the ML value of 1297.60 on Friday.  While there is no confirmed min-3 pivot to the downside yet, price has put in a snap-back reversal pattern in the last two hours of trade from a remarkable point that is a confluence of 4 lines. The new 60m ml slopes down while the prior two were up, also implying a CIT.

The swing down from p5 was 11.5 points (putting the daily range in the 92% frequency band).  Price advanced the rest of the session to nearly regain the top levels of the day.  They returned to the crossed 0-4 line, typically a sell area. 

An hourly close below the r1 line of the rally (not drawn; almost reached on the spike down from the high) would confirm a top; price holding above the r1 line on hourly closes confirms price to go higher.  Right now price is on the defensive from a high level; the Sunday evening trade would confirm the daily pivot high by trading lower.  Many traders would not hold recent short positions over the weekend during a period of international turbulence.  

If we get a move higher early in Sunday evening trade be alert for a dash to new highs and a double top break out.  A flat to down open suggests a period of retracement to the  60m r1 line at a minimum, and then probably lower. 

My sense is that gold will correct significantly over the coming weeks, given the "3rd lower top" (Dec gold) or "triple top" ($gold) that appears to be setting up.  Further downside targets on the daily include, as a matter of rote, the new 0-Y trendline, its reaction lines, and the monthly reaction lines suggested in the continuation chart.  From there I anticipate the weekly/monthly W.C rally to begin (taking out the triple top).  We shall see.  We might get only a shallow correction here.

The daily rsi on Friday seems normal for the range trade in Dec Gold over the last 5 months.

DYODD

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How foolish of me, being

How foolish of me, being bullish at a triple top:

A bullish GDX chart? An inverted H&S pattern:

I was encouraged by AM's GV call cheeky next week we will find out! Wait a minute, the GDX has a triple bottom, I think the GDX chart won the battle.

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Sollson

I agree, GDX looks bullish, yet breaking the top rail is important.  Silver similarly looks bullish and just needs to continue higher.  That's true for gold too--just needs to break through to higher ground.  We'll see.  It's going to be big, either way.

A note on eclipses.  With each solar eclipse there is a lunar eclipse either before or after, and this year it was before, on the full moon, Monday 8/7.  GDX  made a "low close" bottom then also!

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Sollson

(Sorry, repeat post)

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Who is Sollson  while we wait

Who is Sollson cheeky while we wait to find out ... isn't this a little bit too obvious:

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"Cap and Enforce"

Silver is certainly in a bullish position right now relative to larger Andrews lines. Yet Friday was an inside day with little to no net change. It  appears that an effort is being made to cap it here, as in gold.  

The simple channel pattern I showed in gold appears in silver too, in the Sep contract.  This too is a correction for now (an "inside major" pivot).

There has been a repeating pattern:  
After the cap at the far parallel to the 0-y line is initiated, it is reinforced by selling at either the new MLH or the mlh to the new initial ml (it seems the less steep parallel gets used--needs more research).

Here are the July Silver and Sep Silver charts to show what I mean.

It's easy to calculate the MLH assuming the day's high is the top.  To find the slope of the ML you can use this formula.  You then add that value for each day from the top to find the MLH value for the day in question.

So in silver, the slope of the ML from Thursday's high would be -4.717/day, meaning that 4.717 cents per day is subtracted from the high value.  The Thursday high was 1724.  1724 - 4.717 = 1719.28 for Friday.  Since 1 tick in silver is 0.5 cents, we would say the MLH value Friday was about 1719.50 (rounding up).  The high of Friday was...1719.50.  Look at an intraday chart to see when and where this was "enforced".  The MLH for Monday is 1714.50.  Watch the price action there if you are interested...if it gets there.

It's the same pattern for gold.  In gold the Babson 0-4 projection was at 1297.80 on Friday, and the ML was 1297.60--very close together (the closest possible given the respective slopes of the lines).  Price peaked at 1298.10 (a mild overthrow, given it happened in a flash).  Using (and assuming) 1298.10 for the high, the new MLH drawn on the 60m chart (using the daily chart major pivots as seen in the 60m chart) gave an MLH that, the same day, served as resistance at 1297.60 for the 1500 ET bar.  That price was the high of the bar.  The next hour gold sold down to end the day at 1295, off 2.70 from the prior hourly high.  That is pretty significant.  Monday, the daily chart MLH value is 1297.646 (about 1297.60).  

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I am

I am bullish:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/152159751@N02/36165475790/in/photostream/

a zoom in:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/152159751@N02/36165475800/in/photostream/

Jordan Roy-Byrne has turned bullish lately ...

https://thedailygold.com/precious-metals-nearing-breakout/

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Listen people ... We're now 1

Listen people ...

We're now 1 month away from the anniversary of a two - three year high in gold approximately 19 years ago. That preceded the lasting low for the 1996=1999/2001 bear.

I have been sitting and watching this for the last weeks keeping relatively quiet while a small trading range broke to the downside, and reinstated again as a larger trading range. And readers of long standing will know that I said between two and three years ago that bottoming structure had to form, with ranges within larger ranges as a part of that.

And I also said my scenario was mainly for a false new high, followed by rejection and a sudden fall to make the low for gold. I also proposed and brought forwards an alternative scenario for if my low as too late, and the breakout came sooner. That was the BP bear during approximately 1955-56.

But I have "called" for a bear market that would last just under seven and a half years, probably, in gold.

And I have been cautious about stock holdings and the risks therein, while at the same time refusing to get shaken out of long positions. What I did was to raise stops under those positions periodically.

In my opinion, it's time to raise stops and take them one fractal, one timescale, closer than they have been since the breakout from the 2000s range highs. And it's time to be very careful about downside moves in the precious metals. If this is a wave 3 top, what comes after those tends to be vertical and sudden pullback type move towards support that holds. The following time it gets tested it fails.

There is change in the air. The reaction of the people in charge is not a given, but I have done my best to estimate in advance what they would do. Now I am extremely cautions. For stocks this can be the top, or it can be the last top before the top. But the risk of a downswing extending is now higher than  it has been for years.

For Gann interested readers here are some links to videos made by Olga Morales. The won't make much sense to those who have not yet studied Gann technique, though I have encouraged readers to give it a go. Gann technique is tough with a long learning curve and it helps if you know markets prior to attempting to figure it out..

If you have not studied Gann and get an insight into solar system rhythm cycles it might be better to skip over these links and continue below.

  Posted Nov 14, 2016

  Posted one month ago

  Posted 3 days ago

OK planetary cycle interlude over and moving on ...

So will gold move up and away (BP scenario time already up), or will it try, fail, drop and retest old lows (my main and prime choice end of gold bear scenario, due approx end 2018 plus or minus a month) to make a bigger bottoming structure? And what would stocks and bonds be doing if that comes to pass?

Stops are crucial during the coming 3-4 months in my opinion. Select the support level that differentiates one scenario irretrievably from the other and let the market tell for itself. Look to recent range trading for levels.

Some cycles appear to have split into doubles with twin tops and twin lows and this is a sign of larger scale market change. Cyclical analysis will be tough for several months and that will affect results of analysis done using this methodology by various parties.

The 72 year cycle in war is operating at the moment for an unknown degree of results, but that period in the past was pretty bad in some places. Remember that a war cycle is also a defacto sovereign cycle meaning it's both a central bank cycle and a war cycle. Bretton Woods was approximately 1942 to 1945. You could use gold as a proxy for the reserve currency chart when looking into this, so long as you don't go too far back in time. Regular readers hopefully will know by now, from my writings here, the resonant and nearby alternative periods for the 72 year cycle.

There are very big cycles in stocks and bonds coming due around now also. As always the bigger the cycle the harder it is to get specific with it. But I do what I can. If lows are passed safely markets will streak upwards. But the last bit before the low is the most dramatic potential for vertical declines prior to lows. So defining lows before they appear is important to not get killed by them and at the same time be able to get in right for their aftermath.

The Bitcoin uptrend. Is this faith in the future of BTC, or fading confidence in the currency that BTC is priced in? In which case, what of other sovereign FX? FX cash is merely a bearer bond payable at sight but via payment with more bearer bonds of the same type. Think about that. I called a bond market major reversal many months ago. What are junk bonds doing, the ones not bought up lock stock and barrel by the central banks in a price fixing action?

The scene is set, the spring is wound tight, we are moving into the third quarter of the year, a time at which central bankers tend to feel they act, and the IMF in particular habitually "does its thing". Intelligently drawn stop levels should look like parabolic tracking devices chasing after price at the moment.

In the US this is tied up with the fate of the new president, the ability of establishment left and right and both their controlled dumb zombie masses, to remove him and reinstate the status quo, versus the ability of his lower profile personal support base to confront left and right and sterilize the actions of the political class and it's weaponized media.

.... in my opinion for whatever that is worth....

Now I am signing off to go and  create visuals explaining how this all comes together for a small group who support my other work, and how to know what path is being chosen. I will bring the big bear scenario illustration here as I promised recently, and reinstate harmonic projection updates weekly for silver. Due to data processing problems I couldn't physically make those charts for the past few weeks, but these difficulties are overcome now.

S. T. O. P. S.

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argentus maximus wrote:S. T.

argentus maximus wrote:

S. T. O. P. S.

I am a sitting duck, it takes three days to sell my pensionfunds ...

Yepp its true, Born 14th of June 1946

14th of June 1946:

https://www.calendar-12.com/moon_calendar/1946/june

I am a Waxing Gibbous whatever that means ... I aint no Donald Trump that's for sure cheeky

Btw a fantastic post Argentus this got to be on your top 10 list! I got goosebumps when I listened to Olga ...

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My first reaction was "But

My first reaction was "But she's a year early!". However Olga is looking at a few different things in those videos whereas my focus is a little more limited.

Going back through prior videos - she has some public ones available - is interesting to get a feel for the accuracy and error built into the techniques that she uses. She is not new to the game and has a certain amount of respect from me though I am not a subscriber. As I said, it's s glimpse into some of what W. D. Gann was apparently up to.

And of course, it's esoteric and therefore not everybody's cup of tea. But aren't all trading systems searching for the same signals each in their own peculiar way?

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Back to back flats

Or would that be simply flat to flat?  This years Au price started out as an expanded flat and morphed into a regular flat.  Bullish impulse going in but will it be bullish coming out?  Completion of Daneric's 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 of III for the Wilshire 5000 and the credit collapse to follow would correspond to another Fourth Turning.  I believe Bannon in the Trump WH is aware of this.  I find it too coincidental that Trump has surrounded himself with Generals and Goldman Sachs guys at a time like this...they know what is coming and they know what is at stake. 

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Dec Gold intraday--the Schiff median line

Jerome Schiff developed a type of median line that Alan Andrews liked to use when the first leg of a fluctuation was so steep that the typical pitchfork was useless.  It's called the Schiff ml, and there's a nice example of its usefulness here.  I wish my Amibroker software had this function because I missed this obvious sell after gold had rallied in a weak abc pattern, taking over four hours.  It's available in cmegroup.com's online software. 

Notice that just like one of the concepts associated with Andrews' ml, price zoomed the Schiff ml and then came back to it...where it turned and went lower.

Gold appears to be approaching the new daily m0 median line near 1276, down sloping, with hourly rsi potentially getting under 30.

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Capital flows and capital havens are segregating

A contra centralization (deglobalization) swing in the middle of society.

If in a hurry, jump to 4:30 - the part about restrictions applied to nationality of buyers - this is a new thing. It will create concentrated enclaves as time passes.

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Speaking of Capital flows

While the DOW and the DAX have kept up with Au this year, check it out relative to the Nasdaq.  Looks like a virtual wealth versus real wealth sentiment maybe developing.  Today price is near 1270 and the 1.38 line for the bull case.

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Dec Gold 60m 6:00 ET

Gold stopped yesterday exactly on the daily m2 mlh from the low of 1211.1.  This evening it is testing that level (at now 1275.8 for the day), and there are hourly closings under the level with almost no evidence of buying interest at that line again.

Next support is yesterday's low.  Breaking that,  the next line of support is the 0-Y line at 1270.24.  If that cannot hold, watch out below.  Looking for support at 0-Y for some relief.  Will cover a short at 0-Y (take profit) and watch if price gets there today.

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Sep Silver 60m

Sep Silver seems to be leading gold upwards for today.  There was a good low-risk buy last night (2nd approach to the red mlh).  

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Revision

If hourly price doesn't head down soon I will have to revise my count.  Originally had 8/15 at 0800 as end of wave 3. I suppose I could substitute that candle on 8/14 at 2100 and label 8/15 at 0800 as wave 5.

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Dec Gold 15m Wednesday

I deeply study the charts at the end of the day in an effort to learn and keep sharp.  If I'm alert and curious (meaning I explore by drawing lines, actively looking for patterns) during the trading session, then I can take great trades.  If I'm not present in some fashion, I miss what the market is offering.

Today's market presented dramatic action a little before the formal opening of 8:20 ET.  A rally that ran my stops at pivot d was sharply reversed with a punishing, high volume smash that ended at pivot e.  I noticed the long tail of the 15m bar but was not alert enough to get curious.  Notice the close of that bar a little below the soft purple line market "tl".  That close was not below pivot c.  The next 15m bar traded higher but not over the high of the pivot e bar.  A very good cover and maybe reverse point was available on a stop over the two 15m bars, sort of an inside bar reversal stop, if you will.  The ensuing hourly rally was on greater hourly volume than the hourly smash down bar--a clear signal the market was intent on going higher after the completion of the correction.  The suddeness of the price action from d to e created an "ending epf" type ending to the whole affair.

After p1 was put in, there was an inside hourly bar, a classic set-up for a continuation higher trade (on a tick above the prior high).  This type of trade puts a stop under the low of the inside bar.  There's a red box around the 15 bars that made up the hourly bar.  After p1, there was a retracement that nearly stopped out that kind of entry (it works better in the early parts of a move, but sometimes that's hard to define).  Instead of a stop out, there was a reversal bar that created pivot 2, and that was the start of the third wave of this apparent C wave up.  The defined risk of 1 tick below the reversal bar low gave a risk of about 1.1 pts, a very good opportunity.  A lot of other traders thought so too (or were they machines?).  Up until that moment there wasn't a very low-risk opportunity to get long.

Alas, I was not at my screen when it happened.  It's OK, because opportunities keep coming along.  It's like endless at-bats.

Right now (20:44 ET) it appears gold is putting in an ending diagonal to finish this wave C, but I'm guessing.  Having gone higher this evening, we have now a possible daily min-1 upside pivot, and I'm looking for a possible high to sell for Thursday.  

Silver's pattern may become a 2nd H bounce if it can close an hour under the new MLH--and that can come after a lot of trading/consolidation above the MLH or the SH--but not anything above the first H-bounce high of 1721.50.   Price has traded this evening over the SH to the MLH.  The stop for the 2hb trade is above the highest high of the 2nd H bounce, preferably on an hourly close.

As I send, gold has reached the new MLH.  Possible reversal from there!  We shall see!  There are two 15m chart lines crossing at that price extreme when I last glanced at the chart.  Exciting stuff.

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Nazism versus Communism

Daneric posted a good evaluation of the Charlottesville riot and subsequent media attacks on Trump.

He describes the confrontation as Nazism versus Communism, with many idealist useful idiots contributing their bodies to the numbers available to the smaller organizing cadres on both sides.

Here's his post: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.ie/2017/08/elliott-wave-update-16-august-2017.html

Daneric  identified the impulsive down swing in the wider Wilshere Index, and is looking at the rally as a 2 up or b up.

This is similar to the interpretation that Prechter's EWI prefer. Of course the big question is: is this the last consolidation of the bull or a first consolidation of a new bear?

Breadth is cracking and the midcaps are peeling away from the larger caps, and underperforming. Time for Dow Theory and associated analysis. But really, it's still too soon to be sure.

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+1 and a look inside the engine room at breadth and support)

Adding to my above post ... on stocks ...

If that is indeed the valid count, and it looks good to me at the moment, then as always, maximum randomness comes at the moment of completion of 2 or b. Which makes that date an inflection day.

Why is that? Because if the upswing is a wave 2 pullback, then following it will come a sharp and fast wave 3 down, with breakouts. At least one of which breakouts that would not be retraced fully by later pullbacks upwards.

But if this is a wave b rally upwards, then it will be followed by a wave c downwards, and that wave c would be fully retraces, and then followed by further moves upwards to extend the rally after it, and attempt to make new all time highs.

So the inflection is the choice. B up or 2 up? In the contest between those two counts. There are others.

Therefore an estimation of the background becomes important in attempting to evaluate whether or not long term top has yet been made.  That's where breadth and momentum and volume come in. And they are inexact science, but careful working with VWAP gives the bigger players an advantage over the smaller. We smaller clients can also use VWAP, but we don't have the luxury of seeing how much selling produced how much VWAP % change in price. It's not really a problem because the volume tool I produce here (VAP) cuts through the mess and gives simple clear analysis of support during such a period.

And there is sentiment. It won't (shouldn't) go down until the right pockets own it ...

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