was probably made on Friday. Two forms of convincing evidence here. And another important one here. The 60m chart also confirms. I will wait for Sunday PM trade to take a short position if/as price allows; decided to not be short over the weekend. This is a time when you may want to hold one short during the week at least, anticipating a (probable Major) pivot low.
More technical details:
The three rallies in Dec Gold share a channel pattern where the 0-y line is the lower parallel and the upper parallel is drawn from the pivot high furthest from the 0-y. The presence of the Andrews major ML spikes the odds of a top.
The 60m chart seems to confirm a turn. The strong 4 day rally shows just 5 min-3 60m pivots that culminated 5 ticks beyond the ML value of 1297.60 on Friday. While there is no confirmed min-3 pivot to the downside yet, price has put in a snap-back reversal pattern in the last two hours of trade from a remarkable point that is a confluence of 4 lines. The new 60m ml slopes down while the prior two were up, also implying a CIT.
The swing down from p5 was 11.5 points (putting the daily range in the 92% frequency band). Price advanced the rest of the session to nearly regain the top levels of the day. They returned to the crossed 0-4 line, typically a sell area.
An hourly close below the r1 line of the rally (not drawn; almost reached on the spike down from the high) would confirm a top; price holding above the r1 line on hourly closes confirms price to go higher. Right now price is on the defensive from a high level; the Sunday evening trade would confirm the daily pivot high by trading lower. Many traders would not hold recent short positions over the weekend during a period of international turbulence.
If we get a move higher early in Sunday evening trade be alert for a dash to new highs and a double top break out. A flat to down open suggests a period of retracement to the 60m r1 line at a minimum, and then probably lower.
My sense is that gold will correct significantly over the coming weeks, given the "3rd lower top" (Dec gold) or "triple top" ($gold) that appears to be setting up. Further downside targets on the daily include, as a matter of rote, the new 0-Y trendline, its reaction lines, and the monthly reaction lines suggested in the continuation chart. From there I anticipate the weekly/monthly W.C rally to begin (taking out the triple top). We shall see. We might get only a shallow correction here.
The daily rsi on Friday seems normal for the range trade in Dec Gold over the last 5 months.