The setup for the big trade

11597 posts / 0 new
Last post
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 7:19pm (Reply to #6608)
redwood
Offline
Joined: Aug 9, 2011
5309
10894

Today was predictably very

Today was predictably very robust. More time than not followed by a sell off, how steep, we'll have to see, so I agree.

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 8:57pm
Hammer
Offline
-
Somewhere over the rainbow
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
5503
16208

I read that it was because

I read that it was because there were no actual markets open at the time so.............and then a data feed from someone's platform. Anyone got anything better ?

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 9:59pm
brennan
Offline
-
Hilo, HI
Joined: Jan 15, 2012
11
46

Harvey predicts fireworks in 3 days time...

34 minutes into this interview from TruNews. apologies if this has been posted already. Basically, the mother of all short-squeezes. The one we've been waiting for...

TRUNEWS 11/25/14: Larry Pratt & Harvey Organ - The International Gold & Silver Ponzi Scheme
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 4:00am (Reply to #6609)
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

Would such spike hit the

Would such spike hit the stops or if its just a technical glitch it won't last long enough to fulfill orders?

When I last traded some time ag0 , there was some similar spike in instrument i traded ( forgot what it was) but my platform did not change my position, did not react to it. 

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 4:04am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

This could be interesting

This could be interesting support as well-Swiss gold poll- although its priced in ( NO vote) , it still may provide temporary support short term until the facts are clear. 

https://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/focus-swiss-no-vote-could-still-have-implications-for-gold-market-hsbc-85698/

Quote:

On Sunday, voters in Switzerland will decide whether or not to outlaw further gold sales from the Swiss National Bank, to make physical bullion at least 20 percent of the bank’s assets and whether to repatriate Swiss-owned gold.

But support for the ‘Save our Swiss Gold’ initiative appears to be slipping, with the latest poll having the ‘yes’ vote at 38 percent, with 47 percent against and 15 percent undecided.

The results of the poll, conducted by research institute gfs.bern and Swiss broadcaster SRG, are in line with a previous poll by news organisation 20 Minuten, which said that public support for the ‘yes’ vote had fallen to 38 percent from 45 percent.

“The bulk of opinion in the market appears to favour a ‘no’ vote and although a rejection of the provision by voters would not be surprise, it could deal a modest psychological blow to the market and help reaffirm the bear trend in prices,” HSBC said in a report on Tuesday.

“[But] we believe a “no” vote is priced in by the market and would not expect a significant impact on gold prices,” it added.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 8:24am
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3637
24402

I added some physical,

I added some physical, Philharmonics in Au, to the long term portfolio. Effect about plus 8%.

If a shakeout downswing forms this is buying high, but it doesn't have to do a final shakeout since we are within the most interesting period. So this a little insurance for the event of a breakout without such a final downswing. If it drops to a lower level I'll have no problem adding more.

Other markets:

Today and tomorrow - stocks, especially Aussie stocks, can set a firm level to move away from. It could do the same for metals, or alternatively the metals might wait until first week of December to take their cue. On balance I would expect a reversal to the downside.

So stop entry order set above and below today+tomorrows price range eg in the AllOrds, with an extremely close stop exit can allow price itself to make the decision. At least that is what I would do if I were to trade that scenario. But I'm just planning to observe. I'm not advising anybody to do anything it's a conversation only with my thoughts on markets voiced aloud.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 9:04am (Reply to #6611)
eclectic
Offline
-
Houston, TX
Joined: May 3, 2013
310
922

Pretcher, etc.

Great visuals Nick! Thank you for posting. FWIW, I also do not agree w/Pretcher's count. He is overlooking the fact that gold did NOT make a lower low on 5/16/2012 at 1527. compared to 1522 on 12/29/2011. That would negate his wave (1) down as a leading diagonal. I like to evaluate prices based on the London Fix; not futures. I do believe that the entire move down from August 23, 2011 (the high in London) is a completed A of I at 1130 this month. For practical purposes however, it's till bullish; but his bigger count is going to be off. Just my 2-cents.

Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 11:37am
klempaton
Offline
-
Terra
South Africa
Joined: Apr 18, 2014
13
50

Look at Oil.  Didn't Ilya and

Look at Oil. Didn't Ilya and the idiot Geoff warn us about this back in May? "USD generational low" he said in May. Oil to be bear market and go to 50$. What a wonderful forecast it was. This forum needs forcasts rather than people commetning on every little blip in Gold and Silver. This is not a place for pros only for shows.

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 4:03am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

This oil drop will cause

This oil drop will cause about 6% GDP drop for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan reducing their ruling clans claims to power and adding to the instability in the region. They are becoming legitimate takeover targets for Russians.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 7:34am (Reply to #6620)
fslade
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jul 23, 2013
88
359

ivars wrote:This oil drop

ivars wrote:
This oil drop will cause about 6% GDP drop for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan reducing their ruling clans claims to power and adding to the instability in the region. They are becoming legitimate takeover targets for Russians.

Or, this oil drop will reduce Russia's oil revenue and make it harder for them to afford starting conflict in other places.

We can play this game all day, it is just using the news to justify what you already think. I'm sure someone has warned against this, hmm who could that be?

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 9:50am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

Gold has hit some resistance

Gold has hit some resistance again..more downside expected.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 1:33pm
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
980
3873

Have a nice weekend  swallow

Have a nice weekend angry swallow your turkey carefully, you do not want to choke.

Swiss shiver ? Should have sold my position a couple of days ago, thought a NO was priced in. And then, should have sold three and ½ years ago. If NO on Sunday, maybe I will start bottom fishing on Monday with my real estate loan. It is so easy these days, no phone calls, no check, no control, no papers to sign, no valuation of my real estate. Just a click at your closest internet bank and a couple of days later you are almost a millionaire in Swedish fiat. I really like this fractional banking system and money printing ! I do not understand why some people complain?

(not)

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 2:38pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3637
24402

Holiday long weekend time is

Holiday long weekend time is upon us.

First we go up to the sky, a couple of days ago, and now we drop down to the floor!

We have seen all this before.

Of course this is the best time, this month, during final trading days of futures, to try for a new low in gold and silver, and neither has been achieved yet.

We'll soon see if the bears still retain enough clout to achieve their aims. For now, both metals are both above support and under the long term trend, that is to say still within the inflection.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - 3:09am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

Yesterday GSR reached new

Yesterday GSR reached new highs with both metals moving down, silver faster in relative terms-as expected and as it usually happens:

It looks more and more likely that negative Swiss gold vote will- as OPEC decision for oil- even though priced in- start the final sellof in PMs- which could last - according to earlier charts about FIBO convergence of expected Russian event impact on gold- 1 month and then perhaps keep around bottom-bottoming out - for another month. It depends on Russian USA tensions, but my scenario is that they will increase in market opinion from that point on, as winter comes to close. flade sees opposite direction-we shall see very soon who is right or is truth still somewhere in the middle. 

As far as I know Russians and estimate Putin, they are not rational, has a big mystical element guiding their actions. And Putin is an adrenaline seeking high stakes gambler. My opinion is based on similarities in character /behavior to Hitler he exposes (more important than differences). Putin's is holding tactical nukes close to his chest, his only strong card with which to scare Europe and test China. Approximately 10000 pcs (if not more if part of Soviet 40 000 stockpiles have not been really destroyed as agreed with the USA) compared to almost 0 for China/Europe.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - 7:01am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

After oil price will bottom -

After oil price will bottom - in few months- with current ruble value or lower, nothing can prevent Russia from turning on printing press to rearm; from history ( French assignats during French Revolution) it is known that government printed money lasts for about 7 years before complete annihilation. This puts a deadline for Putin to compensate - as French tried as well then- this printing and devaluation with asset resource looting by military force. If Russia changes its monetary regime say in early 2015, it has time till about 2020 to compensate it by entering and winning wars. If it does not change its monetary regime soon, it has already lost.

If it wins the wars as Lincoln did in Civil war, its paper money (greenbacks in Lincoln case) will survive, and so will the country (Empire). 

That was the same thing Germany did from 1936 when it replaced Hjalmaar Schacht with Gering as Minister of Economy. And after 5 years it was forced to attack Russia as printing press was pointing towards the end of Reich mark after 5 years of uneconomical rearmament. Returns from winning wars in Europe were too low; Germany needed something HUGE to save it. 

So in fact the choice for WWIII will be made in early 2015 by Russian monetary regime choice. After that monetary autopilot (with help of world bankers) takes over.

I think this change in Russian monetary regime- showing its intents to increase confrontation and the need for military aggression to keep its NEW monetary system functioning- will mark the bottom in gold. 

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - 8:49am
Oboma
Offline
Joined: Sep 1, 2011
155
733

Swiss Gold Referendum

Will not pass. Probaly all just one big noise event. They will never allow for gold to be in the lime light. the fact remains is that the cycles will determine how this all will play out. The news is all about gold now has anyone noticed. all the states are playing their cards. Big wars going on behind the scenes.

Will see how it plays out. NOte that AM keeps indicating he's been long and just recently purchaced some Au.

I see Ilya has been brought back to life. let's see what will occur next on the boards.

Is turd still saying buy the dips:)

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 4:35am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3982
25145

Since institution of FED,

Since institution of FED, average 10% treasury yearly yield has been 4,91%. Not sure if average yield of all debt notes is the same, but could be close ( depends on yield and share of bond in total debt). 

Assignats which were backed 100% with liquid current assets of France and were used to finance wars lasted very much exactly 6 years:

According to Thomas Paine , who correctly predicted in 1796 that Britains currency will collapse in 1797 , average life time of paper currency ( with or without fractional gold support) is (since its based on FUTURE liquid assets to be bought with it- it has leverage built into system as only 4,91% of current liquid assets serves as base for total 100% high power money supply=USA debt) :

(100%/Average interest rate)* 6 =x

Since Britain was forced off gold standard in 1797, and Bank of England was established in 1694, one can calculate back that average interest rate England paid on its bonds over 103 year period were ( x=103) :

100%*6/103= 5,82%

Given 4,91%, if no dramatic changes in average rate happens, USD can last

 (100%/4,91%)*6= 122 years or till 1913+122= 2035 or another 20 years. 

If with latest financial techniques rate suppression will continue and stay below 4,91%, it could last approximately 10 years more or till 2045. 

This all indicates that its premature to write down USD already now; but that in 2035-2045 we are going to see battle- most like;y between USA and China ( Rocks and Roths into final stretch) about the monetary ( and so total) dominance over the world. 

It could be, as in Englands case, that USA wins and USD stays; but history tells that once power has started to move in one direction its unstoppable, so China will win. 

In any case total demise of USD is still far away; of course, according to Rock Roth agreement in the meantime it will share part of monetary reserve sphere with yuan since 2021, later-about 2026- also with Germany ( EUR?) and India, so there will be a temporary Tetrarchy of monetary centers which will be swept away by China latest by 2050.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 7:44am
Offline
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
8170
47854

re: Swiss Gold

The timing of the referendum is interesting within this paradigm both as it relates to AM's pivot dates and maybe as it relates to interesting things that happened around WW2 ie Nazi gold and international banksters and all that jazz. And interesting as a possible indicator of a power struggle. Trying to understand who this "ultra" conservative party (western MSM name) is and there goal takes more than a few googles. CNBC wrote it's nonsense and that gold is in a 6000 year bubble. That's some bubble eh? 

Essentially none of the calls for repatriation have been successful. Now with France and Switzerland, that might not be the point in all of this. Taking gold away from banksters and covert military operations are fightin' words. Looking at the shadows behind the curtain of words is something Farrell is good at because it takes alot of time and research. 

The extreme volatility in weather from sub-freezing to luke warm has my interest from a cycles/commodity perspective but don't see grains doing what the Kondratieff and elliot wave writings suggest should be happening as an indicator as a commodity bullmarket. But I've not spent that much time looking at past analogues. 

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 8:25am
jolidacrown
Offline
Joined: Sep 4, 2012
69
306

Swiss Reject SNB Gold Initiative, SRF Projections Show

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 8:43am (Reply to #6630)
Offline
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
8170
47854

jolidacrown

jolidacrown wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/swiss-voters-reject-snb-gold-referendum-srf-projections-show.html

If we consider that the vote went in favor of the Central BAnkers desires hence the IMF, one could read this decision as a bearish sentiment coming from the IMF. Is that not something we've been looking for? 

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

randomness