A2A with Ronni Stoeferle of Incrementum AG

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Most folks at TFMR look forward each year to the annual "In Gold We Trust" report from Incrementum AG of Liechtenstein. One of the co-authors of this report is Ronni Stoeferle and it was a great pleasure to have Ronni visit our A2A platform earlier today.

First of all, if you haven't yet seen this year's In Gold We Trust report, the full text can be found here: https://ingoldwetrust.report/en/gold-report/  We also featured the executive summary of the report back in June and you can find it embedded in this link, too: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8375/guest-post-latest-gold-we-trust-report-incrementum-ag

Ronni was a very patient and generous guest as he addressed every listener question over the course of this 70-minute call. Just a few of the topics covered include:

  • Since 2012, why hasn't the dollar price of gold continued to track the US monetary base and US debt level?
  • Does a flattening US yield curve inevitably lead to recession?
  • Is a global gold revaluation or "reset" pending?
  • Will the Chinese back their currency with gold at some point?
  • Global attitudes toward gold and the physical possession of gold.
  • How a falling gold:silver often foreshadows rising gold prices.
  • The potential impacts of pricing crude oil in yuan.
  • And much, much more!

There is an abundance of good information contained in this recording so please try to carve out some time to give it a thorough listen. Thanks again to Ronni for being so generous with his time and we hope to have him back at TFMR soon!

TF


62 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Open interest observations

MODERATOR

Crazy OI changes in CDG yesterday. Recall what was happening with Mother and the USDJPY. There was the one $10 surge in price just after Mother's remarks were made public but it never git past $1225. Through this period, then, it's quite interesting to see that total CDG OI rose yesterday by a whopping 15,800 contracts! This takes total OI to 491,438 and this is just 5,000 below the 2017 highs of 496,966 seen back on June 7 and near the 2017 price highs (thus far).

So why is OI spiking again? Are these all new Spec longs yesterday vs a Spec short base that so far is refusing to cover? It's all very interesting and, unfortunately, we'll NEVER know for certain thanks to the criminally-complicit CFTC.

CDS also saw an OI jump yesterday of 900 contracts on a 14¢ price rally. Total silver OI is now back to 208,479 and this, too, is the highest level seen since June 6.

Harley's picture

1st

Golden!  laugh

Turd Ferguson's picture

When you're finished listening to A2A...

MODERATOR

This was recorded yesterday with Dave at X22. At the time, it seemed to have come off better than some other interviews we've done so I encourage everyone to give it a listen and pass it along.

 

scoremore's picture

Open Interest observations

So if I am reading this right last Friday's CoT and even this Friday's CoT may not be as rosy as they seem.

Possible scenario:

Specs reversed course on Wednesday the day after this weeks CoT survey. Commercials took their bets and reversed to short but covered their tracks by doing it on Wednesday.

They then spike the USDJPY to 115 in the coming days and win once again and killing us stackers.

In the meantime AM says the huge metal purchases are still being worked out and will come any day now.

Did I get that just about right?

So freaking frustrating.

indiana rod's picture

Red River Valley

By a strange coincidence this great song

was re-released with the announcement

that Obama and Hillary are teaming up

to raise money for the Democrats

     Come and sit by my side if you love me,

     Do not hasten to bid me adieu,

     Send your money to me and Hillary,

     You know we would never stiff you.

I've been thinking a long time, my darling,

Of getting back in the fray,

Besides that, I need the money,

Since my slush funds all went away.

     Forget that I lost one thousand seats,

     Or that we're in the worst shape since '28,

     Just think of how we are great leaders,

     And of all the Trumps that you hate.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

COTs

So, all this non-stop day by day "analysis" and wailing and gnashing of teeth over a report produced by known liars and criminals. Hmmm....

streber's picture

I was hooked at beginning when Ronni said he was "an Austrian"

and gave recognition to Ludwig von Mises who, in 1920 predicted doom for the Russian,communist central planners because they "don't allow market prices."

70 years later there were parades in Moscow, one of which was led by people carrying a large banner which said;  "70 years on the Road to Nowhere."

Yes!

chocolatechiphorses's picture

LARGEST GOLD COIN STOLEN ~ SUSPECTS ARRESTED IN GERMANY

3 minute video

canary's picture

The COT is important to me...even if it's done by liars

If we traded part of our position based on COT (going long if COT was very bullish and going short when COT was overly bearish) for the last 8 or 9 years, we would be quite rich today. ...The worst thing about the report is the three day delay....Right now I'm waiting for the first sign of the specs covering their shorts, before I add to my position...I haven't seen it yet, but it's coming.

I keep my core position untouchable...though I look at the COT as the best opportunity for me... in this crooked market.

Angry Chef's picture

VISA takes its War on Cash to US Retailers

As my Father used to say. Tell them to stick it up there keister....

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/12/visa-takes-its-war-on-cash-to-us-retailers/

happycamper515's picture

Silver AH

I'm showing 8 contracts traded down around $15.34 right now.  Can anyone confirm this?  It's on my Teletrader phone app.

happycamper515's picture

Silver AH

Telegrader showing a 9th contract just traded at $15.33/$15.34. What kind of markets are open right now?  Someone just trying to paint the tape or globex going to open down 40 cents in about 27 minutes?  Funny thing is the apps shows no movement in the POG or the USD/JPY.

MrOnline's picture

Einstein study

Ok good people of Turdistan I have done deep scientific study. I have gone back in time here at TFMR and compared number of comments first half of this year, December of 2016, summer 2016 and December of 2015. If comments here at TFMR are guide to sentiment than I can tell you that sentiment is EXTREMELY low. I know! You are shocked, right? Average comments when we are heading downward are about 70-100. When we are going up comments are 100-200. Comment we see these last weeks have never been lower. According to that sentiment have never been this low for the past 2 years.

benque's picture

If the scummy banksters are serious

about crashing silver and gold to very low levels, expect some margin hikes this coming Sunday night.  Then you will know that a ginormous buying opportunity is close at hand.

NUGTCALL's picture

Turd

Interesting that Ronald thought AM idea of some entity buying large quantities of physical would not cause a price rise. What say you?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Is that what he said?

MODERATOR

At the time, I thought he said that a major physical shortfall would likely result in the paper exchanges quickly cash-settling etc in order to limit the financial damage.

I'll have to go back and listen when I have the time.

Response to: Turd
Gold Dog's picture

SIU7

The front month has a low of 15.66.

As info.

Dog

scoremore's picture

Look I hate to be negative like I was above...

I was at work and that beauty of a post above came out in all my frustration.

The 3 recent smashes have taken a toll on my mental fortitude.

God bless Turd for coming in here and facing all this blatant manipulation in this market and trying to find positives.

Who is going to stand up to these assholes and let them know it must end?

It seems the answer is nobody. So they keep doing it over and over.

They can do the Hunt Bros like that but then let these commercials do all this stuff?

I think it gets worse before it gets better...I sure hope not but someone is brutally hitting the market at the right times to push this thing down. I would not be surprised to see it go to that low last Thursday in the $14 level. I saw someone call it their "smoke signal".

After putting myself out there with statements above you all should see a rally tomorrow.

tfever's picture

a soverign

It has bee a nation that get pissed at them and enough firepower to stand up from US bombing.  I only could count that with one hand. 

RickshawETF's picture

Everybody's Culpable

People are sheep.  End of story.  My proof?  Take the simple tomato.  At some point [in past history] a producer, realizing that fully-ripe tomatoes just didn't ship well, utilized a new technology to pick tomatoes green, gas them for shipment, and gas them at the end point to "ripen" them.  Of course, those tomato didn't "ripen" -- they merely changed from green to red (sacrificing all of their flavor in the process).  Perhaps this producer was able to offer these tomatoes at a lower price than fully-ripened tomatoes, and the seller loved it, since there was much less waste.

Who was the loser?  Why, the consumer, who received a pallid, unripe, insipid tomato.  So, did the consumer reject those tomatoes, demanding flavorful, ripe tomatoes?  Hell no!  So, that has now become the norm, and that's what passes today for a tomato.

I have news for the sheeple.  Announce a campaign to reject these "tomato imposters".  Boycott buying them -- on a mass scale.  How long do you think it would take producers to realize they had no more customers for their "fake" product, and they must revert to ripening tomatoes on the vine, with full flavor.  My guess is less than two months!  Would you be willing to forego tomatoes for two months, to modify producer behavior (in favor of the consumer) for the rest of your life?

Well, I can tell you the sheeple would not!  They'd rather eat shit tomatoes than demand the real thing . . .  I lived through the gasoline shortage in the early '70's, and let me tell you -- the environmentalists were there at the gas pumps, kicking and clawing for their "share" of gasoline, right along with everybody else.  Most people are willing to talk "green" unless it conflicts with their lifestyle.  At that point, it becomes "The environment be damned -- I need gas for my Range Rover!"

The way to measure someone's commitment for change is to "inconvenience" them in some way, and see if their commitment is genuine . . .

@VikingKing6's picture

Awesome A2A

Thanks, TF!  That was top shelf.  Truly.

RickshawETF's picture

Kudos to Turd!

Oops, I almost forgot (easy to do when you go off on a rant!).

Congrats on those awesome 1-2-3 charts!  Those are the simplest, most compelling examples I've seen on the manipulation in the metals.  I'm sending them to everyone I know -- especially those who have not yet "gotten" the message . . .

happycamper515's picture

GSR

In PM bull markets it's supposed to contract not expand.  It's been expanding for a few weeks now and is currently at a nauseating 77.8.  In the past 5 years I've seen it as high at about 83 and as low as about 63.

Mickey's picture

Cash Settlement

Happened in London  in Nickel, perhaps 10-12 years ago, settled in cash, odds favor the house.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

@Rickshaw

Kudos on the tomato analogy. They have absolutely no flavor. Especially after growing up on fresh NJ vine ripe tomatoes and corn. Haven't had stuff that good in 40 years now... :(

Dr. P. Metals's picture

Beware ZH (again)

another example of what they do. They are no better (at all) anymore than MSM.

exhibit of ridiculous hyperbolic (and misleading) headline:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/75000-mile-wide-hole-sun-could-black-out-earths-communications

since they often just reprint "articles" from other sources (as in this case), this also tells you the reliability of those other sources also. Aren't you all tired of being deceived (by everyone)?

fact: the sunspot has been present for several days already, with this as the latest scientific update:

DECLINING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR2665 has decayed both in area and magnetic complexity. It no longer poses a significant threat for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a declining 15% chance of M-classsolar flares on July 13th. Free: Solar Flare Alerts

http://spaceweather.com/

KeynesianKryptonite's picture

OT -- Significant Solar Flare Activity in Progress . . .

Just received the following two notifications in the last half hour from my "Disaster Prediction App," a body of knowledge published by a group of serious and semi-professionals who are mostly astronomers, volcanologists, and physicists:

"A significant X-Ray Solar flare is in progress."

"Strong solar flare and earth facing CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) in progress."

Curiously, Zero Hedge covered this potential event, and a large and growing, earth-facing sunspot about 3o minutes ago. The 75,000 Mile Wide Hole In The Sun Could Black Out Earth's Communications.

And this from a Russian Solar Observatory site that I follow:

canary's picture

Yellen being concern with our debt...

Here is Chuck Butler on that: "But... she did have this grenade to toss at the lawmakers.... "Let me state in the strongest possible terms that I agree" the U.S. federal debt trend is unsustainable, may hurt productivity, and living standards of Americans."   Hello? Testing, one, two, is this microphone on? Can you hear me in the back? Good, because I want to make a point here... Where has all this concern about our debt path been for the past 8 years when the debt was doubled?  Come on, inquiring minds want to know!"

scoremore's picture

A2A

Liked the fresh blood.

Enjoyed listening.

I want to have a beer with the King at his castle...Sign me up! yes

Old Howard's picture

@beware ZH

I gave up on ZH and mainstream media months ago

Dr. P.   All hyperbolic bullshit. Even here sometimes!

Remember Oroville dam?

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