The setup for the big trade

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Pete
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FFMGF

A buy for the long term at/near the weekly far h?  At the gap?  This share got gdxj'd on Friday.

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Ronnie Fattal's 6/17/17 gold and silver analysis

Good stuff! very interesting and very well documented 

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Here is my prediction for the

Here is my prediction for the coming month. We are at a multiyear trendline, above=bullish, below=bearish. Are we above or below, tough question. Using basic EW skills, I am missing a final wave down to complete this trend, look at the chart:

If we zoom in it’s hard to tell if we are above or below, a sharp correction that pierced the trendline, then a retest from below. It looks harder to break down from here maybe a geopolitical event would help?

The swing down is a third repetition of the two downswings in the C-wave. I just copied the length and angle to measure the time and price to end this downswing, so yes mid July looks good imo.

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OT-Crude Oil

One of the most classic charts I've seen in a long time!  There is big upside potential here.  USO call options are cheap at Friday's close of 44.97 basis August.  The chart is indicating strong potential back to the high at 58.30 ($55 on the continuation chart), with an initial target of the last swing high at 52.22 basis August.  Maybe 6 months to return to the high (a guess).  There was even a volume reversal on Friday (a strong buy trigger on continuation higher).

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August Gold

The market needs to hold this level for continuation to new highs from here.  Price is at the r1 line of the prior rally, and a plausible MLH.  Evening weakness is not helping the bull case so far, and the very narrow, inside Friday bar makes for a cheap "continuation" trade to the downside that many traders will jump on, especially with a break of the r1 line.  r2 may be in the cards quickly.  Crude oil is also not following through so far this evening, but higher crude prices would support a faltering stock market.

This current level breaking may set up a retest of the last low (May) as there was a zoom down of the weekly swing pivots on the daily chart at that low.  Not retesting it would be a good show of strength. 

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Tx Pining I just noticed your

Tx Pining I just noticed your article when I logged out, I was not allowed to comment so I put it here instead.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8404/doldrums-and-summer-lows-pining-sez-no?page=1#comments

Well worth a read, and it's the day before summer solstice tomorrow smiley

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KNT.V again

Using monthly pivots gives us this picture of accumulation at a higher bottom (on the MLH).  Now it has to hold.  (I'm long.)

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Crude oil continuation daily

I didn't do all my homework in the crude oil.  The long term continuation daily of crude oil futures puts the r1 line a little below the current market.  Actually, it's quite remarkable that the August 2017 contract's r1 is as close as it is to the lt chart's.  Anyway, let's see if closes can stay above the continuation r1 over the next several sessions.

My confidence in this chart construction is pretty high:  the action line has many pivots on it; there are many large swings on the way down, in a corrective pattern; prices are holding, so far, above py (bullish); the last wave down has hit rsi 30 and is far from the latest ml; the prior top closed over the last ml (the advance warning indicator).  We shall see.

Argentus, maybe 6/20 will mark the low day!

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ESU7

If the move continues beyond r2, watch r3 to mark the top.

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Clearly this is what is going

SUMMER SOLSTICE laugh The SOL (Sun in Swedish and Latin) at a high and The Sun of money at a low?

Clearly this is what is going on in Gold, we are building the C wave up, 1/3 is already achieved. 1240ish must hold for this scenario to play out. We are at a road crossing at the moment. If this plays out as described we have a very harmonic wave structure going forward. The next correction is the last one in this bear.

(sometimes it's just too simple to see, you are going blind looking at too many analysts charts and EW patterns)

I am bullish smiley and it's summer solstice today at the northern hemisphere! Tx Pining for the bullish case scenario inspiration, a big thumbs up yes

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Some stock market charts

US/global stocks as represented by the Dow. In particular: bigbanking/finance, pharma, bigoil, bigIT/communications and war/aerospace.

I typed a few observations on the charts. I am not a superbear until I begin to see reasons to become one. The width of the decade trading range is the most compelling (return to (rising)mean at some future time), but that is not a short term timing datum of course. Some shorter term factors are highlighted on the charts for today.

Stops have again been raised to capture gains, the stops can be figured out, along with some future stops if this continues, from the charts shown here.

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Daily gold

The G-V peak is passed,with end of contract, end of month all coming in a week from now.

Disregarding the G-V news-event flow, here's a chart of gold in daily with the G-V peak's context shown.

The relevant comments are on the chart, and the nature of the contest opened up in gold pretty clear. A false break being pushed back into the channels would be quite bullish, but it's too soon. Right now the thing is to look for the pullback bar taking the low back, rather than an accelleration away from this prospective breakdown. The breakdown price bar has not spiked down thus far. Limited bear commitment thus far ...

What happens if it starts upwards from here? An end of month bear squeeze, that's what. So ... are the biggest boys out yet or not? If they are flat already , the big boys below them in the pecking order are going to get squeezed as half year positions limits are imposed by regulatory requirements, forcing new exposure adjustment trades.

The bears have 1.5 month double tops and one month double retests behind them, all successfully dealt with. So being reassured so recently they won't just walk.

But the buyers have good levels to cue off too. The horizontal which I labelled as a balance or tipping point price level may be of use in weighing progress. The G-V timed a 2 day-bar penetration of this price, it's a tad under 1250. There is a half year buying point wrapped up in this, not yet resolved, but the times are discussed and the stops can be seen to trigger exits from trades slipping towards the bad side.

This is daily timeframe, weekly is not shown.

Not trading advise. Do your own due diligence. Assume your own responsibility, learn your own expertise, talk to professionals. I trade these instruments myself and this is for discussion and learning - not a "system".

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Gold daily

The linked chart shows the origin of some of the lines AM used in his above post.  It is the Andrews Pitchfork applied to the monthly chart pivots.

Today showed a reversal off the sh (and the minor 2p trendline, not drawn), which is good and necessary to maintain the uptrend.  What gold needs now is to close back above the MLH.  If it does, we'd have a "2nd H-bounce" pattern with greater potential for gold to reach the ML in time (months probably).  Go here for the chart.  Otherwise, if gold is not strong enough to get above the MLH, the odds increase for a break of a 3p line (what was the minor 2p line; could be called a 0-4 line, too) and perhaps sharply lower prices.  The stop-loss for the 2nd H-bounce pattern would be below the pivot low, assumed to be today (a close below is firm evidence of failure of this pattern.)

Here's a good example of the pattern from a recent junior mining takeover offer (Integra Gold).  The day before the announced offer, notice that price closed back above the MLH.  Luckily I was already long this share and sold my position after the reversal trigger from the ML.  It could have gone higher, so I waited for the trigger to sell.

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MLH value

For August gold to close above the MLH and create the 2nd H-bounce pattern it needs to close at 1254.60 or better today.  Friday that increases to 1255.60 by my estimation.  Were gold to close Friday at 1256.60 or better, that would create a weekly bar reversal at the weekly MLH and it's probably an even more bullish indication.

On the 60m chart, this morning gold hit the r1 resistance from the 1284.20 top and was sold down.  Then it surged over the r1, but just closed back under it.  So there is a concerted effort to keep it down this AM after the initial surge.  Chart below created about 10m before the hour's close.  

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Yamana daily

Second day after G-V 20/6/2017:

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Zoom in to 4 hourly, this

Zoom in to 4 hourly, this time Spot Gold x US Dollar:

The coming week should be a bearfest based on past history. So can this interim low survive that, and grow up, and become something bigger? We'll see soon enough. A start would be getting to eg 1258+ for this initial rally. Would that be asking too much?

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Any similarities? The Falling

Any similarities?

The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.

The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.

and a random miner picked just by chance cheeky

a bearfest next week ouch ... I would prefer a bullfest instead, that would caught a lot of experts off guard.

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Well, it would be nicer if

Well, it would be nicer if the two interim lows were in the reverse order to what worked out. Anyway, the second is the lower low. This means that no retest is present yet. So if it is a reversal we need a tiny wave two retest to establish a higher low and set up buying upon pullback to that.

Also, during recent contracts the selling that comes prior to expiry has been seen to split. Some sellers at expiry and others at end of month to about the 4th of following month. I put this down as a likely "bridging" trade between Comex and LBMA expiration for market makers and clients using the OTC. Think about  using a credit card to pay another credit card account. A kiting trade. Whichever it is, recently the period of weakness has sometimes extended a little later and I just an making allowances for that until it goes away. So for me, a  bullish thing would be to see no new lows between now and eg 5th July for gold, even though a good attempt would be seen to create them. I'd like to see a bear failure to create follow through after the recent interim lows. That would be a sign of strength as we move into the low volume summer trading.

Next high volume contracts are August and December.(for gold) - July and December for Silver, speaking of futures primarily because the futures traders are the guys with the money to put up 100% margin when required.

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First Mining Finance

FFMGF shows a good example of what my Andrews mentor used to call a Willie Nelson pattern (WN).  Prices go "off the road" (break below the MLH in this case) and then get "on the road" again (regain the MLH on a closing basis).  This type of price action often indicates a "pivot 2" of some degree has been made, before a possible wave 3 (big move).  Click here.  (Click on chart to enlarge image.)

I was trying to follow FFMGF, looking for a good buy signal, and missed this one.  On the basis of the H break I placed a limit buy order at the minor far h (I posted earlier about this potential setup), and didn't recognize the WN signal that occurred the next day.

The "best" stop (least likely to be filled) for the WN signal and entry is a stop-close-only beyond the pivot extreme.  In this case, there occurred an inside bar after the WN signal, so a continuation-type buy signal could have been taken with considerably less price risk than risking a close under .44.

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Gold 60m

When price gets to wl#1 (to the initial ml) at a possible p1, and turns there, price often retraces to the initial ml (that was zoomed on the way up).  Current 60m gold gives us a good example of this behavior.  A turn there often marks pivot 2 in this time frame.  

Daily gold of course didn't close over the monthly-pivot daily chart MLH (earlier post) on Thursday, so the 2nd H-bounce pattern is not in play (yet).  As I type, gold is pushing to a new evening session high and it looks bullish. 

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