Doldrums and Summer lows? Pining sez No!

With analysts at most public PM websites now turning decidedly bearish, with the summer doldrums staring us in the face, with the new rate hike raising interest rates (on paper making gold less desirable as it provides no yield), and with the gold seasonals suggesting that “sell in May and go away” was the play, there is a definite bearish tilt to the sector right now.  That’s why (among other things) we have a great risk-reward setup staring us in the face. 

Pining thinks it’s a great place to go long (with stops)!  Let me give you a few reasons why, then I'll outline the trade:

Sentiment:

A quick review of 7 popular and publicly available precious metals analytics/trading sites, and a glance through the comments on those sites, made clear to me that there is (at least roughly) a general consensus in the metals complex right now: after failing to break through 1300, and first pushing through then falling back below the long-term downtrend line in gold, the summer doldrums are upon us and consensus sentiment has turned bearish.  The two most likely scenarios I saw discussed were either (1) we languish and churn lower for the next few months following typical gold seasonals pattern into a July or August low, or we cascade from here into an earlier low, perhaps late June or early July. 

I like this widespread bearishness very much.  This is precisely the type of setup the metals love; wrong-foot the investing public, going against well-known patterns (because it’s never that easy in the metals) and making sure the majority of retail is not on the train and has to chase price. That’s also why the so-so COT doesn’t bother me much, that pattern has been a bit TOO clear recently and has been becoming a little too easy to trade, so I think it’s due for a wrong-foot.  In fact it is this “juking the crowd” and subsequent chasing of price on the way up that provides the fuel for the best runs in the metals.  This is an excellent setup from a sentiment standpoint.  Just ask yourself, when was the last time the majority of retail sentiment was dead-on correct and on the right side of the trade in the metals?  Thought so. 

GDJX rebalancing is behind us

Regardless of where you stood on the whole GDXJ/JNUG issue, the fact remains that it is now largely in the rearview-mirror.  This means a genuine, significant source of instability in the sector is now largely behind us, removing some of the unpredictability which had been a drag on both price and sentiment.  Additionally, it is likely that money managers who may have previously been hesitant to allocate funds until this nonsense was sorted may now be prepared to put that money back to work, thus bringing an unexpected tailwind that could help things to the upside.  If instability was a negative, then stability should be a positive.  Bullish! 

Crossing over of the 50,100, and 200 DMA on the Gold Daily chart:

Don’t look now, but for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, gold is about to see the 50 DMA above the 100 DMA above the 200 DMA.  This golden cross setup is seemingly timed to catch people off-guard given the poor sentiment we see now, yet will trigger buy signals for technical traders and algos.  With about 60% of stock “market” volume now quants, this is not immaterial.  With a massive turnover in shares last week, especially the huge volume on Fed day last Wednesday (see black arrow on chart, look at that volume level) and follow-up churning, there has been a significant rinse in the complex. Lots of longs have been spooked out of their positions, and some shorts have covered profitably.  This actually looks good to me, with Quad witching just passed on Friday, and particularly the Thursday and Friday follow-on action- no waterfalls, just tons of repositioning. 

The tinfoil hat wildcard, but worth a mention: Is the Fed schizophrenic or working a plan?

Traditional analysis says that when the Fed raises rates, gold craters.  Yet during this recent cycle, when the Fed raised rates Gold took off.  And guess what? The Fed just raised rates.  Short version-  Bullish! 

Long version:  I actually think there is a reason for this counter-intuitive recent action in gold when the Fed has raised.  Traditionally, why did the Fed raise rates, and when did they do it?  They raised when the economy was getting hot and genuine fears of inflation were taking hold, and they did so to cool-off inflation and that hot economy by sucking liquidity into bonds through higher yield.  So with better options (yield) available, gold (which produces no yield and is an inflation hedge) went down.  But recently, the Fed has raised with (1) no real signs of inflation, and (2) and a genuinely poor economic picture.  So gold didn’t do what it usually does, and in fact one could argue that gold was simply performing another of its traditional roles- that of the Safe Haven in times of uncertainty- since raising rates into a poor economy is quite possibly a recipe for a stock market crash (given that the market is in a highly overvalued position historically).  In this context, gold rising (insurance) when the Fed (stupidly) raised rates actually makes perfect sense.

Tinfoil Hat version: Has the Fed decided to become as part of “le Resistance” like so much of the Washington establishment has, and is this the sign?  Before you dismiss me as a nutter, answer this simple question: After 8 years of keeping what was initially billed as “extraordinary measures that are historically unprecedented and temporary” in place for nearly a decade now, why has the supposedly ‘data-dependent’ Federal Reserve suddenly just hiked rates AGAIN at a time when economic data just missed so badly? Again? And yes, the previous sentence showed how what the Fed once described as temporary is now permanent, what was once extraordinary is now standard, and how "data dependent" means ignoring the data no matter how bad it is.  This is sheer Schizophrenia. Or, you know, Central Banking.

The most recent miss inspiring our data-driven Fedsters to hike more was so big it was the worst miss in six years!  In fact, the last time economic data disappointed by this great a margin the situation was considered dire to such a degree that Bernanke unleashed “operation twist”… back in August of 2011. So how is this rate hike in any way logical for a “data-dependent” Fed, absent the deliberate intent to muck things up?

If the Fed were truly making policy as economic data dictates, they wouldn’t be doing this.  So why keep hiking rates into a dumpster-fire of an economy when they know could easily lead to a major stock market correction, crash, and/or recession at some point (maybe soon)?  Occam’s razor suggests: because they’ve decided that’s what they want!  If you do A, knowing it will probably cause B, that strongly suggests you desire B as an outcome.  Simple. Call me crazy all you want, but that explanation seems quite consistent with the tone and behavior I’ve seen coming from the rest of the DC/government establishment for the last half year, so I don’t see why the Fed would be any different. When the feeding trough is threatened, some folks ‘resist’, some folks leak, some folks hike.  Potato, po-tah-to.   

And if you think the market won’t be allowed to drop because it’s never allowed to drop, ask yourself WHO has not been allowing it to drop for the last 8 years?  The PPT/Fed.  And what are these rate hikes suggesting they might want now?  Ummm hmmm.  

Regardless, don’t totally sleep on the long-shot catalyst folks; the S&P finally heading south as a possible catalyst for gold…

Trendline test, rise above, and rejection:

One of the lessons I’ve learned the hard way in the metals is that trend lines are not what classical trading theory says they are.  In classical trading theory, a trend line should act as a psychological level of support or resistance, and when (for example) price rises then bumps up against it then breaks through, it is supposed to trigger a new wave of buying as other market participants (seeing the strength of price in breaking through the barrier) join in the buying, driving price higher (or of course, in some cases rejecting price and sending it back down).

But all that supposes free and fairly traded markets among participants of equal standing before the law.  And these are the metals. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!  So here, trend lines are places where, when resistance is breached, once price breaks through and attracts new buyers, THEN the market “makers” crush price with an avalanche of paper to harvest all that new money that just came in. Ring the register, bank the bonus.

So the way trend lines work in the metals is that price bumps against resistance or trend lines, and if it goes through bringing in new longs, THEN it gets smashed back down below, and only when everyone who just got run has either been cleared out or turns bearish will price finally be allowed the possibility to rise back up through that line at some point. 

In other words, in the metals, trend lines are only valid indicators after the gang-rape has occurred there.  We’ve now had that in gold (twice, actually), so in my book, we are finally clear for a rise up through 1300.  Strange?  Yeah, but that’s how it works around here. 

The Bottom Line: Risk vs. Reward

In the end, all of the above is just food for thought, or fun speculation.  As the wizened sage of the trading pits atlee once said, “That’s a nice story.  Ms. Market doesn’t care about your story, she will go where she wants.” 

This is a basic range-trade with well-defined risk vs. reward.  You take the known trading range, buy-in near the recent low of that trading range, and use that as your stop- it’s a simple play, regardless of whether any of the above winds up being a catalyst or not.  Right now, GDX is just above the recent lows of May, so we have a very clear and recently defined low. We need to make a higher low above this level if we are going to continue moving up, so there is your well-defined stop-loss level.  GDX is around 22, and 20.75 would be my stop-loss for this trade… we go below that, the trade is busted, so get out (FYI, I find that gold and silver are gamed so much day to day that setting stops, entries and exits via GDX is much more reliable and predictable, even if the vehicles I am trading are gold and silver).  A tight, well-defined 5-6% stop-loss if you’re wrong is acceptably low risk IMO.

But the reward… if this takes off like I think it could, we would at least revisit the highs of GDX 31.5 of last summer. The safe play would be to take 50% profits near that point, then wait for market action to decide further, but I suspect it’s possible that the momentum generated by a rise from 22 to 31 would mean that bull might very well keep running until we hit the 36, and possibly on the outside the 40-42 range. But let’s stay conservative (recent range-bound) in our calculations and stick with the 31.5 figure- that would be an unleveraged gain of 43%.  Put another way, that’s a risk/return ratio of 7.7 to 1 on this trade.  (Best Borat voice) Verra Niiiiiiiice!!!! And if it keeps rolling to 36 or even 40? Ka-ching!

.     .     .

So you can have your summer doldrums, your new lows, and your gold seasonals.  This parrot, with disciplined stops, is going long.

GLTA 

86 Comments

Dingo's picture

Advice taken!

Thanks Pining, again. I've spent the last half hour growing my ignored list from zero to 18. I didn't enjoy doing this, however, I'll report back in week or so about my thoughts on it. Nothing personal against any of these Turdites. Just seeing if the filtering will give me my Mojo back for this site.

Blaggers's picture

GDX etc

Despite the surge in USDJPY back above it's upper channel line the GDX, $HUI and $XAU are holding up pretty well (green even).

Fore shadowing???

Angry Chef's picture

Syria Summary - U.S. Attack Fails To Disrupt Push To Deir Ezzor

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/syria-summary-us-attack-fails-to-disrupt-push-to-deir-ezzor.html#more

The news of Russia warning the US that any further attacks on the SAA will be met with force is a biggy. But Iran hitting ISIS targets from 600 km within it's own border is huge. Well at least somebody is dealing with ISIS/DAESH. Russia, Syria, Iran, Hizbullah, and Iraq.

So why aren't we doing our part ? Don't answer that. I know.

When this is all over and these countries and China dump the dollar. Well, you can imagine.

boomer sooner's picture

Illinois Bancrupt

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-19/illinois-death-watch-continues

I had to chuckle reading the article.  One thing Illinois could do (according to the Constitution of the US) is hammer out some gold coins with a ridiculous face value on them, then pay their bills.  Million dollar 1/2 ounce AU.  The Fed (and CONgress) would shit themselves.  All of the states would start (maybe why Texas is building a vault).

Thanks Pining!  As you know my trading skills SUCK, so I will watch and see (may take a stab at silver tho, just fell out of bb on my Netdania factory setting).

I just got back this morning from a trip to the Gulf coast of US.  Everything that has a bed is full and booked.  Unbelievable.  Between home and there, rooms were scarce.  In the stink hole of Monroe, LA, had to sleep in a fleabag because if you did not book ahead you were out of luck, with 3 fairly new motels added.  Seafood was good, brew's were tasty and the people were polite.  All in all, a nice trip even tho I hate the beach (went to see my oldest at Hurlburt Field, FL.).

Nice museum at Eglin AFB about how potent our weapons system have become.  Even some info on a laser mounted on an AC130 and burning a hole in the engine compartment from a flyby.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

I noticed that Blaggers

I'm pretty surprised GDX et al isn't down more with the metals, but the miners are being accumulated today- just as the were last Thursday and Friday (where we easily could have seen follow-on waterfalls after Fed Wednesday and that big red candle).

A cautiously good sign! I still wouldn't be shocked at a trip to 21.50 or lower on this swing, but knowing myself and my trading psychology I'd rather be roughly right than try to cut it too fine. I've got stakes in NUGT @ 30.25 and JNUG @ 17.50 from today and Friday (just to be on record, posting the trade). 

Angry Chef's picture

RADIOACTIVE WASTE FLOWING FREELY INTO COLUMBIA....

...RIVER BECAUSE THERE’S NO MONEY TO STOP IT

http://www.blacklistednews.com/_Radioactive_Waste_Flowing_Freely_into_Columbia_River_Because_There%E2%80%99s_No_Money_to_Stop_It/59197/0/38/38/Y/M.html

If you stopped borrowing your money and had the Treasury issue the money you could have all the money you need to address these urgent issues.

JQuest's picture

@ RADIOACTIVE WASTE FLOWING FREELY INTO COLUMBIA....

Hanford...

AIJ's picture

What has Radioactive Waste have to do with this thread????

I am turning you into  Site Central Control   angry for punishment.....

" You have Wiolated ze Ordinance.....You must die......" wink

Mickey's picture

comex is closed on gold and silver 3 minutes ago

now to allow it to rise back to where it was 30 minutes ago

OOOBuck's picture

AIJ - what is the difference

between drinking a glass of water and being water boarded.

canary's picture

OI (final)

Gold Future  -6,587   (total 453,021)

Silver Future  -452   (total 197,854).

Ben Stackin's picture

crypto talk ok, but...

let's add some value don't just tell us how smart you were to buy craptobit at $.39 and now you're sitting on a million bucks profit.  That's about as interesting as hearing about how one outsmarted all the other players at the Texas Fold'em tournament with your busted flush, or was brilliant enough to put in 5 coins in the slot the time 777 came up.   Seriously, we'll assume everyone here is getting filthy rich on crypto's.  As long a RED means down, and GREEN means up, I think we can safely assume the rest.

Comment not intended to troll anyone in particular, my eyeball is calibrated now to ignore craptotalk. Just wanted to weigh in on the side of preserving the primary value of this site, which to me is metals metals metals.

Reg FD:  I do have some $ in Goldmoney.com, a few Oz, but as you all know (I hope) that is metals-based not bit-based.

AIJ's picture

Ben S

"let's add some value don't just tell us how smart you were to buy craptobit at $.39 and now you're sitting on a million bucks profit."

I reminded the board on an "unmentionable" recommendation by Jim Willie. 

That was a very valuable recommendation ( from Willie ) if anyone would have listened........and acted....if they would have listened....Willie emphasized the "unmentionable" very distinctly in the interview.....if anyone was listening...........

Angry Chef's picture

Mattis: North Korea Is a War We Don’t Want

Nukes. The great equalizer. Now what about Syria and Iran. They don't have any nukes.

http://news.antiwar.com/2017/06/18/mattis-north-korea-is-a-war-we-dont-want/

AIJ's picture

For those who are interested

26m26 minutes agoBREAKING : $10.22 on bittrex! Only $4.88 away from my prediction and still have 3 DAYS LEFT

Note: When Willie recommended it is was trading at: $ 0.83

Now I would call that information from Willie........Valuable.....

Time to Re Subscribe....I'm emailing him now......

JQuest's picture

@ Mattis: North Korea Is a War We Don’t Want

Been there done that 65 yrs ago!

Mattis is right ..

China would eat our lunch...........

AIJ's picture

Back to Willie Again.....

What I emailed Jim,

Dear Mr. Willie,

I thank you so much for your recommendation of AntShares on Craig Hemke's site TFMR. I was investing in the crypto currencies at the time and I immediately took your advice and bought some at $0.83. It is now trading over $10.00! Please recommend other Cryptos currencies when  Craig interviews you again on July 4th. 

Thanks again you rock.

I will re-subscribe!

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Great article from Graham Summers

He really addresses the "Fed schizophrenia" issue I talked about in this post:

Today, the Fed is about to start WITHDRAWING liquidity from the markets. And not a little: $10 billion per month this quarter, and $20 billion per month in 4Q17.

What’s the deal here?

The Fed is “taking away the punchbowl” from the markets. Sure, stocks might hold up relatively well today or tomorrow, but the reality is that the $14 trillion market rig of the last seven years is ending. Globally Central Banks are going to begin withdrawing stimulus from the system, as global credit is already decelerating at a pace not seen since the Great Crisis.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1497880180.php

His conclusion?  "A crash is coming."

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Bob Farrell's 10 rules of investing

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.

2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.

3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.

4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

5. The public buys most at the top and the least at the bottom.

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names. 

8. Bear markets have three stages: sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.

10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

Docdhj's picture

Operation Freedom Announcement

Friends,

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I am proud to announce that as of Monday, June 19th, I will be joining the Caravan To Midnight Family & Platform lead by The Iconic John B Wells. Caravan To Midnight is THE MOST POPULAR late night subscription radio programming in the country and around the world.

I will continue to broadcast my Live Sunday Show, Operation Freedom, from The Freedom Bunker from 2-5 pm Eastern via WAAM Talk 1600.  The podcasts will continue to be posted on davejanda.com , The Operation Freedom YouTube Channel and NOW on Caravantomidnight.com site as well.

In addition, I will be hosting a 2 hour show on Caravan To Midnight every Monday and Thursday nights. The Caravan To Midnight site is a subscription service which is the biggest "Bang for the buck" in all of The Internet. My shows on Monday and Thursday will ONLY be available on the caravantomidnight.com website. 

John B Wells will broadcast his Outstanding Show, Caravan To Midnight, from Tuesday through Friday and his Ark Midnight Show every Saturday broadcast from KLIF in Dallas, Texas. I suggest you visit The Caravan To Midnight You Tube site as well.

I am honored that John B Wells thought Operation Freedom and Dave Janda were worthy to be included in The Caravan To Midnight Family and Platform. This is a HUGE development and I believe will lead to outstanding programming and content focussed on Empowering EVERY listener! Information that the Lame Stream fake Media will never touch!

This week I will substitute hosting for John B Wells and will be hosting Caravan To Midnight Tuesday through Friday.

For further information and subscription information please visit: www.caravantomidnight.com

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In addition, my book, The Awakening of a Surgeon is now featured & available at The Caravan To Midnight website:

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AIJ's picture

Very valuable information Pining

And we shouldn't forget them; However, if Clif High is right then what we are seeing is a progression in the Crypto currencies that will exhibit mini spikes associated with mini crashes and everyone will say at that time, "it is all over for them" but yet the cycle repeats until a majority of liquidity has been relocated into that sector......which could take time because the universe of Crypto currencies is so small.

In other words, Clif is saying (I think) that standard technical analysis will indicate on each spike that the move is over ( and it will be, for that move ), but the cycle repeats in an upward channel. This make sense to me if there are  Trillions and Trillions of fiat chasing after Billions and Billions of Crypto currencies........

Just look at this chart of the sector's TAV ( click the 3 month ) and you can see the pattern starting. Of course anything can happen and nothing is fixed in stone and I agree totally taking profits along the way is more than prudent.  

http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

I do believe as Andy Hoffman has stated that, " Precious Metals and Cryptos Currencies are the twin destroyers of the fiat monetary system", and if a true statement how would crypto currencies not be an integral part of the mission statement of this site?  

joeblack's picture

Silver options and contract expire next weak

the Cartel may be trying to paint a very  negative quarterly close for the metals and miners

AIJ's picture

Jim Willies response

"not an expert in cryptos

but I have a couple colleagues and a few friends who appear to be

thanks, jim"

So he has associates who are experts in the cryptos....interesting........

question's picture

Darn it Pining

you've got me thinking about trading again; very well written and thought out post. I especially liked your idea of using GDX for stop levels; brilliant!

It aint safe around here these days, people talking about this, that, and the other thing. I've even read stuff about health and diet here on Turd's EOTGKE site, not to mention talk about politics or world events; even some esoteric type crap over there on that DOTS forum. I read, absorb new facts and ideas, have my mind expanded and just generally get exposed to new things that cause no end of mental constipation.

I've no one on ignore (seems rude) but some posts are scrolled quicker than others just 'cause I can and want to; so what, my loss if there is any loss.

This is all just to say I cringe when I'm told by some "net police" that talk of cryptos or some other topic shouldn't be allowed; that is a slippery slope I hope Turd doesn't go there. If this place isn't free to talk in about what someone thinks is important information about navigating through these rough and dangerous waters we find ourselves in I guess I must have misunderstood the idea of the watchtower.

silver10sguy's picture

First Mining Finance Up 12.27 % Today

After the end of the rebalancing in miners it was nice to see FFMGF up 12.27% today.  The volume was 2.892 million shares traded today.  I think the mining sector overall will either be accumulated or just trade sideways until something happens later to the upside. 

Clarki Stomias's picture

Every time I think the market can't go more insane

We go and have a day like today. 

Imminent war in Syria with Russia? Check. 

Escalating terrorist activity in US, UK, France, Iran and Saudi Arabia? Check. 

Illinois imploding into bankruptcy? Check. 

Macro data continuing to swan dive? Check.

Another record day in the Markets? Check.

Insanity. 

streber's picture

Not "Unbelievable" at all.

in reply to jQuest
===

No matter the technicals or fundamentals as of yesterday or last week, you can bet the ranch that the Cartel reaction to the latest M E flareup would be to goose the SnPs and smack the metals.

Seen it many times but 7 July 2005 cast my (previously held) suspicion into concrete.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_2005_London_bombings
"Look folks, nothing to see here." - lol
===

Outstanding post by Pining and great comments today.
Nice to have our board back.

Boggs's picture

I for one think crypto's are

I for one think crypto's are meaningful and play a part in bringing the system to it's knees.  However; they have zero importance to me.  I will never (through my computer) buy a so called "asset" to put in my electronic wallet.  Never, never, ever.  Please move this to a forum or open another website.  

Will I miss out?  Probably...but I don't care...I came here for metal analysis.

streber's picture

Re "TFCryptoReport"

Good idea.

Many knowledgeable postings previously laid down here re cryptos.  
I have C&Pd quite a few.
But now I'm done with Cryto Crap.
===

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today tells King World News that governments will easily smash cryptocurrencies any time they want to and gold and silver eventually will escape price suppression by governments and central banks and begin to reflect the vast inflation of the money supply. As for when, von Greyerz doesn't say. GATA doesn't know when either, only that the World Gold Council and the gold and silver mining industry will do nothing to hasten the day.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

===also...

Bloomberg News
Monday, June 19, 2017

For digital-marketing agency Cooperatize.com, taking bitcoin for payment was easy enough, all co-founder Roger Wu had to do was obtain a digital wallet. To promote the move in 2014, he even penned a blog post for Forbes explaining the decision.

The number of transactions the New York-based firm has made since? Zero.

The biggest thing is are people willing to pay in bitcoin? Wu said. The reality is that most of our customers are other businesses and other businesses dont use bitcoin."

Even as the euphoria over bitcoin reached a fever pitch last week as the price surged to almost $3,000, slow transaction times and inertia are helping to prevent it from achieving widespread usage. Adoption has slowed, according to Morgan Stanley, after a slew of companies from Microsoft Corp. to Expedia Inc. initially trumpeted its use, and hurdles remain when it comes to longer-term viability. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/bitcoin-is-digital-go...
===

 

fluxplus's picture

100 DMA for Gold broken

We went through 100 DMA like knife through butter. Didn't act as support. I think next will be 200 DMA - $1242.1. If gold does not find support at that level then I think we will go all the way to $1220 ( May's low). Cartel will smack it unless there is big demand for physical delivery (or maybe they want to accumulate) or market reverses and we have big sell off. I see 2480 on SPX and after that we may get sentiment change. Need to watch miners. If they will be weak then there is no hope for gold reversal.

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