The setup for the big trade

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argentus maximus
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I'm inclined to give them a

I'm inclined to give them a month to a month and a half and then see what they have done before making my mind up. And in 7-8 months look for pullback/retests to set longer term direction again.

Basis Newmont Mining, I see it trading in the region of the April 2013 selloff in Comex Gold. That's in the 36 region. There is a place around 30 where some trading might have to take place before the following big thing gets going. So maybe a 15 to 20% correction when the current triangular trading range swings get tired would get it there. Would mid year be too soon to expect that? It could take another 6 months, possibly. There's a lot of speculation in this reply!

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The trendline with the big T,

The trendline with the big T, finally to be broken?  It's 4,5years old now:

This is the weekly, look at the volume. Do we have another month of upmove in miners or are we topping out here?

Many questions not a lot of answers, let the market decide.

Edit:

#NC Fred, maybe the technical traders is watching the trendline and are awaiting a break before they buy miners, just a guess ...

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Odds are we're topping out

Odds are we're topping out here, but there is no requirement to be guessing about that.

Set the stops off prices at G-V peaks, price will move and remain either over or under these levels.

There is a track record of several market behaviours, none with a perfect record,  which informs about the probabilities upon pullbacks to descending resistance. Here is one: late phase gold bear trend retests that fail, fail suddenly and often after a false breakout signal becomes aborted. That is to say they breakout temporily before fading fast.

In which case I am prepared to deal with an eg 1-3 period breakout which then fails to carry through. If that happens I would not expect a second chance pullback. The key takeaway is to not get locked in by a sharp move counter to one's position at these stages.

Another takeaway: buying breakouts at top of range is chancy, but the buying should be done at range lows upon a failed breakdown, and that is safer. It makes allowance for entry on not so rare occasions when price runs from bottom of range, through breakout, to top of range in as few as one price bar, or during closed hours.

There are other conclusions too (also not perfect)  for those who do the research or pay to have it done for them by reliable traders. That is something I do for others. A few selected market books contain this kind of practical experience - I've recommended some here. Actually I promised to sometime do a follow up to that with a more advanced reading list. I'll bring that project forwards and make it into a weekend AM blog article.

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Here is a long term target

Here is a long term target for the PALL ETFS Physical Palladium shares:

I wonder if I have the swing directions right? Too soon to try estimating swing size, but it's got 9 to 14 months to run and do wave, symmetry, volume, and ratios.

Let's wait and see if a big trade presents itself at the appointed time.

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ESM

We are nearing a probable turning point low, perhaps a wave 4 or A of 4 per Daneric and T.Joe.

A reaction line was drawn using the 3-4 center line because pivot 4 was made very close to 3 a-b ml.  Pivot 2 is the action point.

Note the two daily tops on 2 uh 3-4.  Intraday, this is a double H bounce pattern, with potential to reach 2 ml 3-4.  (There was a good sell point at the h on Wednesday.)

The rl and ml cross next trading session (Monday) near 2303-2304.  Watch for a reversal at/near there.

Happy Easter!

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I would absolutely love this

I would absolutely love this scenario to play out the coming months:

and it's in line with my own work, looking at a fractal in a gold index, predicting a high in a month. However I do not trust it one bit bcos this is the first time I am looking at this kind of analysis, I have no experience in this field.

Glad Påsk smiley

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Interesting take from two

Interesting take from two "old bond trading colleagues" on a new IMF paper that sees potential problems ahead:

Mohamed El-Erian: Reconciling the IMF's 3 Growth Messages

Bill Gross: Brainteasers

IMF : World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?

Summary: Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges........ More HERE

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G-V next 2-3 weeks

Well, it appears that we have arrived at a most unusual time. Two weeks of continuous peak Geopolitical Effect begin today, the first week of which will also have elevated Violence Effect.

G-V outlook is extreme from 21st April through to 8th May, (but not at rare levels like is what sets the tone for a decade).

And already we can see Operation Gladio style vote canvassing under way in France. Reports of thirty thousand facepuke accounts affiliated with LePen's support base deleted, reports of 500,000 extra French voting cards sent out, terrorist attacks in Paris 3 days prior to the election round one causing early cessation of candidate canvassing. There is of course more since this is a program not isolated incidents and not everything made the news big or was intended to do so. The events are separate but not disparate, being diffused action for a cause. Will the NATO secret files have "For US eyes only" written on them this time, as the files in NATO connected with Italian train station bombings during the 1980s did? I doubt it.

Dogs of war. But whose dogs? There are several dog owners around. Who? Well, who was on the list of countries that promised an investigation into Gladio but somehow never got round to it?

"... the parliament of the European Union (EU) drafted a resolution sharply criticizing the fact. Yet only Italy, Belgium and Switzerland carried out parliamentary investigations, while the administration of President George H. W. Bush refused to comment..."

" ... In 1991, a report by Swiss magistrate Pierre Cornu was released by the Swiss defence ministry. It found that P-26 (Projekt-26)was without "political or legal legitimacy", and described the group's collaboration with British secret services as "intense". "Unknown to the Swiss government, British officials signed agreements with P-26 to provide training in combat, communications, and sabotage. The latest agreement was signed in 1987... P-26 cadres participated regularly in training exercises in Britain... British advisers – possibly from the SAS – visited secret training establishments in Switzerland."  ...

...In 1990, Colonel Herbert Alboth, a former commander of P-26, declared in a confidential letter to the Defence Department that he was willing to reveal "the whole truth". He was later found in his house, stabbed with his own bayonet. ... "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

Let's see: Europe/Eu members back then + UK + USA - Italy, Belgium and Switzerland.

That would be USA, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

Ah, those dog owners.

So, this latest Paris attack ... if you get bitten by a dog, the dog needs to be put down or  muzzled, but the owner who trained and let that dog out ... that party or group, and those behind it or them, who let the dogs out requires to be identified and included with the dogs when creating a solution. These dogs canvass for electoral votes with violence, a common kind of modern dog, and a species not seen parading at Crufts.

These two weeks gold will have the firepower to decide serious trading range contests and it's possible it could set some of price range parameters for the rest of 2017, and likely until Q3.

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Ronnie Fattal's 4/22/17 gold and silver analysis

What are the odds? Silver COT showing a record short position. $18.63 is a number to watch for in silver. What are the odds we are going down further and moving sideways at best the rest of spring and into late summer? Ronnie says no fairytales for you! But just remember this...

Fairy tales can come true
It can happen to you if you're young at heart
For it's hard, you will find
To be narrow of mind if you're young at heart

You can go to extremes with impossible schemes
You can laugh when your dreams fall apart at the seams
And life gets more exciting with each passing day
And love is either in your heart or on it's way

Don't you know that it's worth
Every treasure on earth to be young at heart
For as rich as you are
It's much better by far to be young at heart

And if you should survive to a hundred and five
Look at all you'll derive out of bein' alive
And here is the best part, you have a head start
If you are among the very young at heart

And if you should survive to a hundred and five
Look at all you'll derive out of bein' alive
And here is the best part, you have a head start
If you are among the very young at heart

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I am bearish, both metals and

I am bearish, both metals and stockmarkets:

Silver:

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/new-record-silver-open-interest-at-the-comex-harvey-organ/

US money supply is falling off a cliff:

The deciding factor for the business cycle: Lower money supply growth means fewer transactions and the end result is lower GDP. If this pattern continues USA will soon fall into a recession.

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Holy macaroni JNUG at 4.22, I

Holy macaroni JNUG at 4.22, I would not want to touch it with a ten inch pole, even. I will wait for the summer low, only God knows were it's going to end up by then, sub 1dollar?

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I'm with you Solsson

I've been doing well on the short side thus far, and it looks to me like we have some room to run. Next month or two will be interesting in the miners...

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People are funny.Sixty to

People are funny.

Sixty to ninety days ago they bought a story peddled by a neocon/democrat-election-loser/metrosexual/neo-feminist/liberal-deep-state-segment alliance with the meme that "Putin=mortal-threat-to-you".

So a consensus arose that Russia must be attacked.

That represented a problem for ... well ... lots of powerful parties who are powerful and also responsible.

For instance, if Trump didn't take action his support would dwindle. If the Pentagon took on Russia in short term conflict (as opposed to considered long term economic and territory attrition) their armed forces would also dwindle somewhat. But the crowd had been roused - something had to be done to alleviate the crowd's insecurity, anger, plus whatever else had been triggered in them.

Who said the people have no power was wrong. They do have power. They just have no sense! And not much memory either. When they rattle the bars of their cage somebody has to throw them a banana or a terrible ruckus may ensue.

They also wanted a confrontation with China, more proximate to the Chinese side of planet Earth than the US is located. That might be called invading the Chinese sphere of influence from afar.

So here we are now. Not much time has passed for people with real attention spans.

For some reason, everybody now wants the US to attack North Korea instead of Russia.

This is a much more manageable problem. For some parties.

So the public seem to have an ability to have their desires reversed in less than three months. While remaining totally unaware of that fact.

How much am I, or You, a part of the public? Might I, or You, also have this propensity for falling under influence without noticing?

Does this happen in, for one example, choice of financial asset purchases?

If so - or if it is a teeny little bit possible that it just might be so - what signs would you notice for the redirection?

Who gained from the Put-ussia-to-Nor-orea redirection? I have identified some above, there are others. It's recent. You already noticed the strings pulling peoples' psyches? Not yet?

If you didn't see it while it was going on, and you can't see it now looking back to recent weeks, then you probably were ... shall we say ... adjusted? By someone. Somehow. Without noticing.

If you have thought or said recently, the Trump has reversed direction, or been "taken over", agreed with the plethora of youtube podcasts about Trump betrayal, or been a victim of a "silent coup", or feel betrayed or disappointed in his actions, then you are a member of the above mentioned public. How can I say that? Well, despite posts here in Setup (and posts I made in DOTS) about a candidate running down the middle to represent somebody else then left or right political class and easily able to scoop up the disaffected vote - all this happened in front of you and you are somehow surprised?

How does that thought sit with you?

Not nice, is it?

Those invisible strings that pull at us never stop tugging oh so gently.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Let's look at cycles.

The bond-sovereign cycle has hit extreme and rates are rising (with return swings). The last extreme was approx 36 years ago. I have posted here that that was an interest rate high, so another swing must be added so as to compare like-with-like. We need to look back to a period of time when interest rates last made a significant low.

So 36 x 2 = 72.

Years

What was 72 years ago like? What was happening?

That would be (measured from today which might not be the best date to measure back from but we'll go with it for brevity)

2017 - 72 = 1945.

The end of World War 2. The time when the US emerged as least damaged superpower. The time of Bretton Woods and transfer of world reserve currency from the war damaged and heavily indebted UK's £Sterling to US Dollar with gold backing. The years prior to the UN (US) backed war in Korea which the UN/US lost or was fought to a standstill by North Korea with it's allies China and Russia.

Cyclic influence is incredibly easy to see, but very very few manage to see it.

So ... sub cycles .... 72 divided by 4 = 18. Years. What were bonds and stocks and precious metals doing 18 years ago? 2017 - 18 = 1999.

Bonds? In Feb 2000 the USBond yield was at it's half way down the interest rate bear/sovereign monetary bull, and making a pullback to the 38% of the entire bear in rates.

Stocks? In March 2000, the S&P500 was making a high which would be unsurpassed for the following thirteen years, and represented the top of the 2000s stagflation trading range. The price level was eventually taken out April 2013, or four years ago almost exactly.

If you know your gold price history as well as you should, given you're a reader of "The Setup For The Big Trade",  when I mentioned 1999, you should have thought "Hmmmm" instantly. For those who haven't done due diligence on the history of gold  yet, I'll help. That was the low for gold after a long bear market.

So what about looking forwards instead of looking back? Well, a person might consider looking for the giant's last footprint as a starting point. Step forwards from there, and choose a (cyclic) timeframe suitable for your needs.

Have a nice day.

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Solsson's Thursday Fun Analysis

Two cycles, one bigger “The mother” and one smaller “The baby” they are almost identical when 50% of the baby cycle wave has been printed in the chart. I’ve added the wave structure going into the future, a plausible outcome imo.

From now on I am expecting a creeping trend, there is still bulls/buyers in the market. We got lower highs and lower lows in the chart and it will always end with a sharp correction when the buyers are gone. Please be patient here and wait for the sharp a-b-c correction. After the fifth and final wave of the c we will finally get the buying opportunity.

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Can gold finally bust up

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They could possibly

They could possibly be calling this a year too soon:

Behavioural finance points to $1,050 gold price

It depends on this:

Will the most significant retest of gold's end 2015 price low come two, three or four years after the original price probe to the downside?

I can make good arguments for both sides of this question. (Eight year cycle related mostly) Also arguments about what prices a retest seems most likely to get to before stopping. But there's no advantage in detracting from the article I linked to by talking over it with my analysis. that can be another time.  

It seems sensible to let the market be the battleground and watch the relative strengths of the two sides, while at the same time availing of opportunities provided by all significant drawdowns and avoiding bad buying.

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@AM

Keep guessing.  Keep charting worthless CDG analysis.  Keep forecasting down prices.  You will never be wrong.  You have subscribers to satisfy.

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You will also never call the bottom or the top because you are chasing a dot which measures nothing.  But you will have a new lower forecast and time frame every month.  Why?  Because that is the general direction for 6 years.  Why would you forecast anything different.  You can always claim you were right.  Everyone wants to claim they called the bottom or they were right. It is so rigged they will never let it go up until something breaks it. At this point everyone will be wrong.  Its fucking obvious. Pointless drivel until then.

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brokerk22 wrote:You will also

brokerk22 wrote:
You will also never call the bottom or the top because you are chasing a dot which measures nothing.  But you will have a new lower forecast and time frame every month.  Why?  Because that is the general direction for 6 years.  Why would you forecast anything different.  You can always claim you were right.  Everyone wants to claim they called the bottom or they were right. It is so rigged they will never let it go up until something breaks it. At this point everyone will be wrong.  Its fucking obvious. Pointless drivel until then.

I called it more than two years ago. The gold price has been tracking my forecast wave for wave since then. Most of my posts here are entertainment to while away the time, or hopefully raise some readers awareness of the things that matter to develop a good trading/investing skillset.

Last meaningful forecast I made here  was June 2016. I went bearish (in advance by about two weeks of the top) as of the third week of the  following month July 2016. We are still below that price level.

brokerk22 wrote:
...It is so rigged they will never let it go up until something breaks it. At this point everyone will be wrong.  Its fucking obvious. Pointless drivel until then.

No. THEY are breaking it. THEY are making the end by their own actions.

But you are emoting about it, and that makes it harder for you. You need ti look on the markets like a spider looking at it's web. Nothing. Static. Until a fly hits the web, then combat. No emotion, just hunting and trapping.

brokerk22 wrote:
... But you will have a new lower forecast and time frame every month.  Why?  Because that is the general direction for 6 years.  Why would you forecast anything different.  You can always claim you were right.  Everyone wants to claim they called the bottom or they were right....

No. At end of 2015 I went bullish and spent every cent I had during the four weeks before final low. I posted it here realtime. How can you say that when I post my trades? I am not making multiple forecasts so I can say later "look - that one worked!" I post my trades. That is entirely different and you are being dishonest if you imply I do otherwise. Now I make very few trades.

I went bullish Oct-Nov 2015. I spent every cent I had buying at that time and posted the trades here as I made them! I went bearish July 2016 about two weeks before the top saying the top was due end July. I am clearly not always bearish. That is a disingenuous statement you made about me. Please read what I say and not what you think I say.

So I post an article earlier today that has a projected low for gold and you get offended by it. It's not my article. It'd written by an EU located author. It's a conversation piece, something to spark thought. Don't get angry, get thoughtful. I hinted that I could critique it and decided not to do so. You try being objective and say why the author is wrong, and give reasons rather than venting frustration. Claiming "they rigged it" doesn't cut it for a reason by the way. Whinging is immaterial in war. You need to grow up about what this activity actually is.  Feelings are immaterial. This is money. This is war. Only wins and loss avoidance matter.

BY the way B22. Have you noticed that we are in a G-V peak and you're posting in the Setup thread again? You've got to stop being herded and stand aside to see what's happening. This particular frustration is correlated ( I expect) by the price of gold (Yeah, that dot) retreating downwards away from a breakout to the upside, as represented by a trendline on a chart. Now I said correlated, not caused. I'll never post the causes here. I do expect that most readers of Setup have got it by now, though it is unbelievable before one figures it out for one's self.

I'll push the boat out a bit: in my post above the one that provokes your response I referred to the Korean War among other geopolitical events of great size. I mentioned 72 years. There are other posts in Setup that add more flesh to that bare number. But ... 72 ... 74 ...76. Just numbers. Honestly, does the present world psychology not mimic that time extremely closely?

So ... you already looked back to see what the price of gold looked like in 1945, Right? No? Did you notice me telling you to check it out? I present pieces of information which can be put together like a jigsaw puzzle, and all you have to do is look, think about it, and then take the obvious step to see it.

I wonder what percentage of readers are there reading that post looked at the chart of gold for 1945?  I always check out a clue observed, or hint given, by somebody with more expertise then myself. Always have done since I was a child.

Got to go. This reply got lost first time I hit "enter" and is a second effort, so I'm down a big amount of time on it.

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AM: Although I am no where

AM: Although I am no where near your awareness levels about such things and as such can not truly grasp them, I will strongly state that you are very much on to something here. 

What person puts his thoughts out there for examination by others, while intending to help enlighten? A rare one indeed.

One other thing lest someone claim it's about money....AM gave entrance to thought a while back. Due to work I was and am still, unable to explore it by giving it the time it requires. These pages are a portal to other portals of thought. This isn't about money folks. Whatever your opinion upon such matters, it isn't about him making money...

Posting your thoughts, trades, positions.....starting your own thread....giving it up to the market and internet for grading....a very very hard thing to do. It requires confidence and a level of success, along with a good dose of intraspection that will reveal on a personal level...much. It will also make you think about....much. I strongly recommend it for anyone who thinks they are up to the challenge. It's a wonderful journey but the first step is often the hardest to take.    

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