The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Jan 17, 2014 - 12:03pm (Reply to #4646)
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argentus maximus wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:
..... I have given a few dates. Q2 2014 is crucial for huge events in my humble opinion. Q2-Q3 2013 contains the vital moment for the bond market. ...

That should have said Q2-Q3 2014. Late June-Aug, and I'll plump for July looking from this far out.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jan 17, 2014 - 12:49pm
redwood
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broker22

Take it easy broker. I read the market as I see it, whether accurately or not, whether it's up or down. If gold holds above 1250 I would say it will be good for the metals in the short term. But there are some in the know as evidenced by that quirky pressure on the pedal yesterday minutes before close.

Also a reminder that next Monday the US market will be closed which could hamper things some this afternoon with a long w/e looming.

Fri, Jan 17, 2014 - 12:51pm
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Possible, but I prefer to

Possible, but I prefer to think we may have a larger scale bear squeeze getting going this time.

That's why I held longs during the slide during the last couple of months. This might be a good time to do a gold/silver ratio study for this forum I think. It can be impenetrable, but sometimes it gives good clues.

I have intended to set up ratio charts between the PGMs for a while but didn't yet due to workload, and flu. It's time to get that project done too.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Jan 18, 2014 - 9:19am
eclectic
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Commodity Chart

Sat, Jan 18, 2014 - 9:13pm (Reply to #4642)
dsharp9000
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thanks for the response...

thanks for the response... the more i read... the more i know how much i dont know.

Sun, Jan 19, 2014 - 1:36pm
Solsson
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The setup for the big trade is a done deal!?

The time to buy was late June and late December -13. I am a small investor not a trader. My portfolio setup is
10% physical: 90% silver coins, a prefer Canadian maple leaf coins that has 10 times greater purity than American eagle. More bang for the buck.

40% Producers

30% Explorers, A bag holder in a number of juniors like CMB, GBB, XAG, VIT. Added Pretium in November thanx to Tekoa da Silva's newsletter "Legendary Mine builder index". That repaired some of the damage in 2013.

20% Cash

TSX-Venture at Do or Die 975:

Three of my favorites going into 2014. Silver Standard. Allied Nevada, Pretium Resources rebouncing at the moment.​

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 4:31am
ivars
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Silver trendline still at

Silver trendline still at work (daily):

Current EUR USD fork 8h

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 5:21am
ivars
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Gold as well is testing

Gold as well is testing similar trend line as silver for the first time since mid October:

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 8:38am
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Long term volume update (Gold)

It's a while since I updated this study, and I think there was greater interest in silver at the time, so the weekly to monthly gold is getting forgotten.

Here is Comex Gold, weekly, with volume at price, and volume:

The areas calling for backfilling price moves are shown with horizontal red lines. It can do them in any order it pleases, even leaving some for later years retracements.

Whether it revisits 1040 this time remains to be seen, but I note the attraction to go to 1300 as there will be volume there as yet untraded.

1450 to 1500 will be visited some time to fill a large hole. The trading bulge between 1650 and 1800 is also notable. When gold eventually moves through 1575 and holds, it is very likely to go directly to 1850 or higher with no pause. I'm not saying that is happening anytime soon, there are the other price levels to be traded at first, or 2 of the three price levels, before more distant levels will draw price towards them.

The next chart below is the same study. But it is PHYS instead of CMX Si.

On a whim I applied it to PHYS, just to see what differences the less liquid physical backed fund would have when compared to all the other charts we regularly see of spot silver and SLV. The price levels of interest are highlighted in the same way as for the Comex Gold chart at top above.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 9:20am
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Wanted: A Market matrix or Delta contributer

We have cycles here, and Technical analysis, and Elliott Wave, and cross market correlations & capital flow. We don't have Delta or Market Matrix. 

If any reader using these techniques feels like putting their (reputation) head on the chopping block of fate, once or twice a week, please join in! You'll be in good company! smiley

AM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's a link to the AM Blog Article of yesterday, for convenience of any "setup" readers who might not visit Main St. regularly:

Rogue Traders, Martingales and Central Banks

Martingales are walking the corridors of monetary power, and they shouldn't be.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 10:16am
GoldMania3000
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Time frames

AM

Any potential time frames for the back fills 1550-1850. You know me im a greety SOB and like to ensure i'm long well before this phase

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 12:58pm
ivars
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According to 1929 DJIA

According to 1929 DJIA overlay and Sornette model S&P has peaked, on Jan 15th. One of the models ( do not remember which) was pointing at peak on January 14th, another on January 18th. They did predict DJIA but...S&P would have shown the same, but its sqrt (17) times more reliable due to 17 times larger number of companies. Closed my long on Friday 17th and will short S&P before FOMC (which announces decision on January 29th). 

Here was the latest 1929 today overlay:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/611000#comment-611000

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 2:11pm
Lamenting Laverne
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Probably stupid question

but why the heck is Forex Silver not trading??? My last minute in two separate outlets is 19:15 and it is now 20:11, and everything is yellow? Is there a dinner break in the 24 hour forez market that I did not see the memo on? 

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 2:31pm
Lamenting Laverne
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Disregard previous question

the US is apparently on holiday.... and the supposedly "very decentralized" forex market still does not trade, when the US is taking a breather. Sorry for stupid question - I have been somewhat submerged in research for the last couple of days. 

Oh and thanks for alerting newbies with your advert to the existence of Delta and Matrix - Argentus - it looks very interesting. If you knew how many vertical lines I have plotted on Netdania - trying to decipher patterns in the same low-high-low sequences as Delta pinpoints - without luck of course - it is simply wonderful to see that a system has already been recognized and described. More books to read ;-)

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 4:08pm
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Steve Copan's book "The

Steve Copan's book "The Market Matrix" is the one to read. The Market Delta by Welles Wilder came before, and The Adam Theory before that.

I need to get stuck into that reading list post or series of posts. I started off with a blog on MacKay. Next one in that vein is coming tomorrow.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 4:10pm
Ruprecht
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Delta Phenomenon

AM,

Okay, I'll bite on the Delta thing. I've been following various purveyors of Delta data since about 2006. I'll offer my thoughts on what Delta is saying, but only when it's reasonably clear. Right now, Delta is in a total funk. I've never seen it quite so discombobulated. Rosen is pretending there is no problem, claiming the rotation he's been selling for over a year is perfectly intact, and the PMs are ready to rumble. Riiiiight. No one should listen to Rosen.

The problem is that it is not clear whether LTD4, due Feb 12, is an upcoming high, which will come in late, perhaps June or July; or whether it was a low, which came in early on June 28. There are differences of opinion between Rosen, Alistair Gilbert, and Kirby Cooper.

The only event that would clear up the LTD rotation would be a new low, within the next month or two. That would nail LTD4 as a low. But if we just drift upward, LTD4 could have been an early low on June 28, or it could be a late high in the future, probably around June/July. In the absence of a new lower low, I don't believe the LTD rotation is knowable.

Still, I think we are at, or very near, a bottom, so I have put on a large position of Jan16 SLV call options. If LTD4 continues its customary role of being a high. That would allow the pairing of LTD1 and LTD2 to also continue their usual roles as being new all-time highs. LTD1 is due late 2015 and LTD2 is due early 2016. I think my trade is fairly safe because we are either about to play catch up and shoot upward toward an LTD4 high, or LTD4 came in as a low, and we are about to head up to LTD5. At the next intermediate top, I'll have to decide if I think LTD4 is a high. If so, I should keep the trade on since those options should expire near the next top at LTD1. If I decide LTD4 was a low, the next intermediate top will be a chance to get out and wait to see if LTD1 is going to invert to a high. If it doesn't we'll presumably have a deflationary 2014.

I hope this wasn't too confusing, but the situation is confusing and hard to simplify.

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 4:28pm
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I got it. People who know

I got it. People who know Matrix or Delta will too. They are variants of the same underlying idea.

Welcome to the stick-your-neck-out-before-it-happens-club Ruprecht! smiley smiley

People who aren't familiar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdkBkc5ZTQA

Not everyone likes it, but that's ok.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 6:26pm (Reply to #4668)
eclectic
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Ruprecht...

Appreciate sharing your sobering and honest post on Delta! Cheers.

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 8:03pm
It's a mystery
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Here's a question for you all

A person who writes one of the most highly read financial blogs states that it is impossible for money to flow in and out of stocks.

Pray tell, how does the market cap of stocks go up without increased money flow if there is not a corresponding gap?

Tue, Jan 21, 2014 - 2:46am
ivars
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I think it is time to short

I think it is time to short gold and silver for a ride down ( longer in gold case). But I am not doing it as my margin is used on short EUR USD, long USD JPY and waiting to short S&P prior to FOMC. I have learned hard way or usual way not to go over 10% in margin. 

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
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