Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Jan 14, 2014 - 9:32am (Reply to #38125)
csquared13
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BlackHawk wrote: ..please

BlackHawk wrote:

..please stand up and take a bow right now. Up 7.5% yesterday, 15.3 % pre-market today with a $7.50 offer on the table. Well played! I thank you and my dog thanks you.

https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/14/alliednevadagold-brief-idUSWEN00C2Z20140114

BRIEF-Allied Nevada Gold up 15.3 percent premarket

Jan 14 (Reuters) - Allied Nevada Gold Corp : * Up 15.3 percent to $4.97 in premarket; gets tender offer from China Gold Stone Mining Development Limited for $7.50 per share.

yes Strawboss if I remember correctly. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Jan 14, 2014 - 11:31am
Rico
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OMG...

Well, sometimes you get lucky...

China Gold Stone Mining Development Limited Announces Cash Tender Offer of the Outstanding Shares of Allied Nevada Gold Corp at $7.50 Per Share in Cash

I don't feel sheepish for winning that way--I've had the floor fall out from under me so many times that turnabout is fair play. It is nice, though, to get a freebie. Someone here got me interested in ANV originally, and I think it was Strawboss, so thank you!

Tue, Jan 14, 2014 - 11:44am (Reply to #38127)
csquared13
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Rico wrote: Well, sometimes

Rico wrote:

Well, sometimes you get lucky...

China Gold Stone Mining Development Limited Announces Cash Tender Offer of the Outstanding Shares of Allied Nevada Gold Corp at $7.50 Per Share in Cash

I don't feel sheepish for winning that way--I've had the floor fall out from under me so many times that turnabout is fair play. It is nice, though, to get a freebie. Someone here got me interested in ANV originally, and I think it was Strawboss, so thank you!

Well said. 

The question now is, is this the start of the M&A cycle that so many miner investors have been waiting for....who knows?

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Jan 14, 2014 - 2:52pm
Rico
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Now, they're saying the

Now, they're saying the offer's BS...wadayagonnado??

Wham! - Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go (Official Video)
Wed, Jan 15, 2014 - 11:33am
Rico
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Whew...

That oil pop sure gave me some breathing room...

Add: Sold a March 99 call

Wed, Jan 15, 2014 - 12:04pm
csquared13
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I peeled off 1/3 UCO in to

I peeled off 1/3 UCO in to the spike. Nice day to be long. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Jan 15, 2014 - 3:21pm (Reply to #38130)
BlackHawk
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Oil and Gold contrarian indicator

I'm flat, no oil position or conviction ATM, long or short since yesterday when I sold my that UCO position. Went short gold on Monday with GLL. Even though I agree with rico's earlier comment that the oil charts look terrible, unless the markets all head south, I think it's almost time to go long WTI based on the typical trade range for WTI. FWIW, Gartman was tweeting on Monday to go long gold and short oil. It looks like the opposite buy/sell strategy for the pair turned out to be the winner. (Edited)

....."Dennis Gartman, who is now long gold.... in crude oil terms. 

Further, we shall recommend owning gold in terms of crude oil, buying the former and selling the latter in equal dollar sums. Further, to eliminate the impact fo the Brent/WTI spread from this trade, we’ll do half of the oil trade in WTI and half in Brent."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-13/gartman-now-long-gold-crude-oil-terms

Wed, Jan 15, 2014 - 3:51pm
csquared13
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I hear ya both on the

I hear ya both on the charts..the weekly channel that gave me long signal in Dec not looking good since the crash. I see one on the daily with a little potential, but am also somewhat lacking in my conviction. (hence why I sold 1/3 today) I felt like there was a possibility to form a bullish engulfing on the monthly for Dec, but I shouldn't have trusted that solely based off of the holidays. 

Might sell another tranche tomorrow and possibly go flat by friday...just watchin' and a waitin' .

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 4:36am
Spinky
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Thankyou

Thanks to resident POT smokers csquared13 and BlackHawk. Went long for a breakout - we had a nice pop, seeing if it holds to reach my initial target.

Is the USDJPY pullback to 102.90 all we get? That one completely passed me by. Was anyone else crossing their fingers for 101?

To hold a pen is to be at war - Voltaire
Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 8:12am
Deluxe186
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Is the usdaud a buy

Is the usdaud a buy here?

Canada's unemployment, Our unemployment, and australias unemployment all came in horrible and its summer in australia!

Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 8:23am (Reply to #38135)
greatwarden
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Check this report:

Check this report: https://www.capitalsynthesis.com/weekly-technical-analysis-rotation-bonds-commodities-into-equities-the-new-mega-trend-07jan14/

The risk in the USDAUD (chart 43.) is to see a final overshoot towards 0.85 but
a break of 0.90 would imply that a major tactical bottom is in place and this trigger would be bullish commodities,
gold (see chart 9.) and Emerging Markets as one of our tactical key calls or 2014!!

And then check this: https://www.timingsolution.net/market-timing-central/forecasts/currencies-commodities/aud/usd-forecast

Still too early.

Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 10:17am
securi_D
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Bogus offer for ANV?

Rarely post in here, but I thought it would contribute to the ANV discussion for anyone who has some skin in it (as i do)...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/1507071-offer-for-allied-nevada-was-fake

https://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/short-report/2014/01/15/mystery-takeo...(t-a

-_D

Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 12:31pm (Reply to #38137)
BlackHawk
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ANV offer

The AMV offer sure seems to be bogus. Price is back near its recent high (during NYSE hours at least), so I sold for a gain of >17%. No sense getting greedy today. Is it just rumor holding the stock price up? How do these rumors get legs like this one did?

Somebody made some great profits on ANV in the pre-market the day trade was halted.

It's just like unraveling the mystery of who shorted the airline stocks prior to the 9/11 event. To me, it seems like the exchanges ought to be able to follow the money back to the insiders who placed the bets. If they wanted to know "who dun it," it couldn't be so difficult to find out.

Hang the perps. https://youtu.be/IKqV7DB8Iwg

Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 12:38pm (Reply to #38137)
BlackHawk
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Who Agrees?

Quote:
Just two weeks from today, The Comex will begin the process of delivering February2014 contracts. More than ever before, JPMorgan has The Comex "by the short hairs".
Fri, Jan 17, 2014 - 6:45am
Deluxe186
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So randomly strolling through

So randomly strolling through websites....thought this was rather humorous

https://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2014/01/gold-gets-canc...

Fri, Jan 17, 2014 - 10:03am
Rico
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Funny Business Friday.

Funny Business Friday.

Fri, Jan 17, 2014 - 2:29pm
Lord Henry
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Miners etc

SW made a good call on miners having a good month in January . This is often a decent month due to a reactionary bounce following the usual December washout caused by tax loss selling. Mining stocks are non-conformists. In Jan 2009, junior gold stocks, having got nearly obliterated in the preceding Months, rallied very dramatically for a sustained period - when the general market was still crumbling. I've still got a lot of skin in miners, and I'm inclined to think they might have bottomed., although I'm not intensely confident about this. Neverless, risk/reward in miners is at a tempting level - especially for those who think metals could potentially rise in '14.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Sat, Jan 18, 2014 - 1:23am
madcow
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Nintendo

Nintendo has been sucking lately.. well ever since the Wii release, and today marked another 17% (i thinkit was) drop.

Doubt it fits into the "trading" vehicle model here in PTC but im keeping an eye on it. Will prolly pick up some if it drops anohter few bones. I mean, come on, its nintendo. They arent going anywere anytime soon! At least i hope .... poor Wii U :c

Sat, Jan 18, 2014 - 3:57am
why do I even bother
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What do we KNOW, what do we BELIEVE, and what do we EXPECT?

Knowledge

  1. As a monetary metal, Gold has been used (and widely accepted) for thousands of years - especially as a Unit of Account and a Store of Value; it involves no Counterparty risk, it does not require an internet connection to access it, it is not easily taxable once you've got it, and it can be held and circulated privately in a conveniently high value-density format. (My entire PM portfolio could travel with me as hold luggage on a Business Class flight, whereas my house cannot, and my paper assets and bank balances are dependent upon the continued existence and cooperation of third parties. Wherever that plane landed, somebody would be willing to accept Gold in payment for goods and services)
  2. The US Federal Reserve in particular (but numerous other Central Banks in general) have in recent years been massively increasing their balance sheets by monetizing government debt; whatever the legitimacy or economic consequences of this, it is readily apparent that Western economies have not returned to pre-2007 health, and that in particular savers and wage-earners are worse off than at any time over the past 30 years. Whoever is benefiting from QE, it isn't Joe Public
  3. The political process and mainstream media in most Western countries have been bought by vested interest groups. to the point where the last US Presidential Election campaign cost over $6 billion, and the UK's "Independent" newspaper is now (quite publicly) run by an ex-KGB station chief. The public have been lied to over e.g. Iraq and Syria, the NSA and the British GCHQ have been compulsively spying on friend and foe alike, and the internal security apparatus of Western states now rivals anything ever seen in East Germany, the Soviet Union or anywhere else this side of Orwell's '1984'.
  4. Banks have repeatedly been shown to be corrupt, but both institutionally and at the individual level appear to be Above the Law (with JP Morgan recently paying a $2 billion bribe to avoid prosecution for fraud). Inadequately-qualified and unaccountable Bank executives continue to take profanely excessive compensation without any effective governance or oversight - see, for instance, the case of the CEO and Chairman at the UK's Cooperative Bank - and the regulators are (at best) not motivated to investigate (see the case of the UK's FSA/FCA, where the Report into RBS's 2008 failure and government bailout has been postponed yet again)
  5. Finally, at the macro level, unelected organisations continue to steer policy in defiance of democratically elected national Governments - whether this be the IMF/UN/BIS, the EU or e.g. the Saudi Royal family inciting and threatening terrorism at the Sochi Winter Olympics, in Iraq and in Syria, or the US quite blatantly supporting the overthrow of democratically elected governments in Egypt and Mali. We, the People, are lied to and told that it is all about conveniently nebulous concepts such as Terrorism and Freedom, when in fact it is our own Governments who are terrorising and destabilizing vast swathes of the earth (such as South Sudan and Syria) and encroaching on our Freedoms. The Chinese renminbi appreciates 20% and this is badged "Currency Manipulation" - the Japanese Yen is quite deliberately made to collapse by 25% and this is cheered as a triumph of Abenomics. Black is White, it's not about oil and resources, it's about Arab Springs, and whatever the weather, Blame the Other Guy

The consequence of this is a collapse in trust and confidence in establishment institutions, widespread voter apathy and an increasing gulf between "Us" and "Them" (every second Comment in these discussions now includes at least one reference to "TPTB").

Beliefs

  1. There is a widely-held suspicion that 'this ain't right', that something is wrong with 'the system' and that this can't go on for much longer; whether that manifests itself as contrarian investment strategy, renewed interest in Austrian Economics (and at least some of Karl Marx's analysis of the problems of unfettered capitalism), or in prepping for an anticipated societal collapse, many people now believe that this is a temporary state of affairs. History may indeed rhyme, but looking for guidance from a partial knowledge of the drawn-out collapse of the Roman Empire is surely taking tea-leaf gazing to the extremes.
  2. In the absence of concrete knowledge or decisive leadership, we as human beings instinctively revert to faith in more abstract sources of guidance, including religion, inferring hidden knowledge from and extrapolating ex-post patterns in charts (or clouds?) and in 'wise saws' from yesteryear. Whether these help with any degree of consistency or immediacy remains unclear, but they undoubtedly bring considerable comfort during those long dark nights of the soul - as, indeed, they have done throughout history (and there is nothing wrong with that). Inevitably, however, some Prophets will turn out to be false or - worse still, not to have been the Messiah, just a Very Naughty Boy. We all like to believe that "The Truth is Out There": maybe it isn't.
  3. People also believe in a notion of Justice or Fairness, and that there will be retribution wrought on those who perpetrate wrongs; these concepts embed a large degree of 'in the Eye of the Beholder', but there is a palpable thirst for revenge, and whilst a large portion of society has been cowed into dependence or indifference, an increasing number of people - be they suicide bombing religious extremists or civilian militias - are moved to take matters into their own hands. Whether for good or for evil, whether it will ultimately succeed or fail, for the rest of us this descent into anarchy is probably considered even more scary than more of what we are experiencing at the hands of our own governments. Such fears are well-founded in experiences of lawlessness ranging from the Wild West to the Tai Ping rebellion to 'Lord of the Flies', and whilst governments undoubtedly prey on and exploit such insecurities, these fears are no less valid, rational and compelling than any other belief system. Don't expect a popular revolution in China any time soon - they are sick of it, and every time riots in Cairo appear on the evening news, the Communist Party's (already stratospheric) popularity increases. (see Pew Research if you doubt this)
  4. As a consequence of 1 - 3 above, society has become increasingly polarised into "Us" and "Them" - just look at the Republican / Democrat divide in the USA - and the uncompromising belief that "If you are not with us, then you are against us". This suspension of rationality and tolerance is potentially unhelpful in resolving our difficulties in an increasingly diverse yet interconnected world; learning to deal and cooperate with people who have radically different perspectives, beliefs and expectations from our own is a potentially high-risk strategy, but from a Game Theory perspective, "Winner Takes It All" offers an unappealing outcome for most participants. Tribalism is therefore an obstacle which needs to be overcome if, in replacing the current system we despise, we ourselves become that system in the future.

    Personally, there are only 3 people who I believe are worth paying close attention to - George Orwell, Bob Dylan and whoever it is claims they can get me 30 minutes alone in a confined space with Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas

Expectations

  1. In the precious metals and personal investment space, we all now expect further lies, manipulation and exploitation; this may be rational, but unless you propose to "Take Your Ball Away and Go Home" this is not the basis of a sound investment strategy. It has been said that the Market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent, and whatever the validity and justice of our views and opinions, this is a sobering thought. We surely cannot Bet The Farm on a single roll of the dice - certainly not in a rigged market - and as a consequence personal investment should surely be risk-averse and conservative at the present time (at least until a clear trend re-emerges). Personally, in Gold, I think that only 3 numbers are relevant right now: $1000 (collapse), $1500 (Game On!) and $2000 (How far can this go before I exit?) and everything else is just noise.
  2. We no longer expect honesty or transparency from the sources of information (selectively) made available to us, and as a consequence it behooves us to conduct our own analysis, form our own opinions, and stick to them (rather than following herd instinct). If you can't trust yourself - and accept responsibility for your own decisions - then who are you going to trust, and who is going to trust you? Fear and Greed are the enemy - read Kipling's "If" or something similar if you need inspiration, but whatever you do, you need to treat these two charlatans with the same contempt. Be honest with yourself, don't invest money you can't afford to lose, and be grateful for what you've got rather than fretful about what you've lost, or what you might have if only the World was "fair" (It ain't!).
  3. Life, the Universe and Zerohedge: "On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero". None of this really matters; people matter, not investments or politics or events taking place on the other side of the planet. Even if as Americans you guys can't quite find it in your hearts to "let live" for everybody else on the planet, surely "live" is a reasonable proposition? Compared to every generation since the dawn of time, we are living on Easy Street: life expectancy, literacy and public health are way beyond what our forebears experienced 100 years ago, there is no immediate prospect of World War or widespread Famine (at least not in the continental USA), and - even if only thanks to a misguided socialist government which lies, bullies and can't pay its bills - most people have access to enough spare cash for a few idle luxuries (internet, cars, mobile phone, porn, booze or in my case fishing).

Conclusion

There is a saying that "You Make Your Own Luck", and this has its origins in the fact that the German word for "Happy" is the same word as "Lucky" (think "Happy Go Lucky"). My take on this is that it's all a matter of perception: if you are a "Glass Half Empty" kind of Guy, then I can understand how the NSA, the Rothschilds and Obamacare can get you down. There's also nothing wrong with dreaming, planning and scheming for how to fill the other half of the Glass. But for me, personally, it's just that the Glass is the wrong size, and if you'll excuse me, I'm going to carry on drinking while I can

My apologies if this turned into a bit of an evangelical rant: maybe I just needed to get it off my chest. But if you hold the mirror up to your face, many of you on this Forum will realise that you have increasingly become a distorted reflection of everything you (quite justifiably) fear, hate and deride. Rise above it - there is more to Life, and you are bigger than the London Fix or some socially inadequate needledick working for the BIS or Rapist Capital. If that tsunami from the Canaries ever hits, well, at least you'll have 8 hours warning to wax down that surfboard and, Boy, if you're gonna die (as we all surely will one day) what a way to go! A few extra Silver Eagles sure as Hell ain't gonna save ya......

'Free Advice Is Worth Every Penny'
Sat, Jan 18, 2014 - 3:30pm
csquared13
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good stuff Salvation

good stuff Salvation Army. yes

Here's a good post from JB of Ritholtz, and an excerpt:

"Nothing much has changed between December of 2013 and January of 2014, but the way the game often works is that last year’s trash can become this year’s treasure for no important fundamental reason – a shift in sentiment is all it takes. And of course, once capitulation happens and tax-loss dumping is out of the way, sometimes there’s just nobody left to sell."

https://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/18/dont-hate-the-asset-hate-th...

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
randomness