Selecting explorers and junior miners

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Sat, Nov 23, 2013 - 7:41pm (Reply to #121)
Gwyde
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A losing streak

No matter what economic outlook is being pictured, the outcome unavoidably seems to lead to precious metals sliding. Better jobs data (despite the record low labour market participation rate), the lack of official inflation the endless taper talk inspired by more upbeat economic data... you name it.

Over the last week, gold is down 3.6% and silver even 4.6%. Too much head wind for miners, which experienced a major slide, with the HUI index now down for 6 consecutive trading days and down 7.8% over the week. HUI/Gold plunged right to 0.168, threatening its Oct 8 (post 2000) bottom level.

It surely has been a rough ride for our “contributor driven explorer and junior spreadsheet”. We escape the worst, posting a 1.78% loss, which brings us to an aggregated loss of 39.17%. Six miners/explorers are up against 17 down over the week.

Pretium

Excellent gold recovery rates in much of the bulk sample treated recently, propelled the stock 80% higher on Friday, substantially cutting the aggregated loss we've incurred on Pretium. It makes Strathcona's decision to walk out as a subcontractor, look more silly than ever. Over the week, Pretium strengthens nearly 70%, as the company posted a historic low earlier this week.

Too bad we also lost double digits on a few of our explorers. Sabina Gold&Silver slid 23% accompanied by a few more list components making a somewhat less impressive slide.

Gwyde
Tue, Nov 26, 2013 - 5:53am
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yes, a win for PVG

yep, Pretium has been the miner to watch these days, and still is. the botom zone , easy to forecast, in the 3.00 area, was the place to load up the truck. the news of great drill results, confirmed the integrity and value of PVG. and the stock doubled in one day.

 myself, I am looking to buy more if PVG pulls back now (or later) to retest 4.50 area, down to 4, I doubt it would pullback below 4 now. 4.50 maybe the best hopeful support target.

but watch out above 6.00 you run into resistance. from 6 thru 10 and everywhere in between.

 I expect a pullback could happen around 7.00 , if not 6. 

the top zone (for now) is near. just overhead. I could see the next movements to be a tired move up now, into the 6.50 area, followed by a reversal pull back down next week, to retest 5 area. This would be the possible chance to buy a falling knife at 4.40 , or 4.65 area . followed by the next rally to retest 7, maybe target 8...... but even then, all PVG will have accomplished is a revival of its reputation, and revival of a normal looking chart , where share price is where it used to be before the phony baloney happened.

so now PVG is back near 6, could hang around 5 or 6 , could fall to 4.50, and rally to 7.50, but the miner will follow the spot gold movement, as it did precisely so today , and spot gold has been moving down, has bounced off the 1225 low, back to 1255, but Overhead now is a strong resistance zone for gold between 12.70-1285, and above that another one at 1300-1320. and gold could get whacked hard again there. That price target area for gold at 1270 and 1310, could correspond to PVG at 6 area and PVG at 7-7.40 area.... Places where PVG could get whacked down.

So its nice to see the little victory for PVG's integrity, and a return to normal chart conditions. But the rigged game is still ongoing, and the down trend channel is still there to be careful about. 

Its good to buy the bottoms, but we must sell the top zones too. PVG is a buy at 3 , a buy at 4.50 area, and lower.

and a sell at 6.50-8 area. in my view. I dont mean sell everything. trim pieces, little positions, buy low and sell a bit at the top zones.

Mon, Dec 2, 2013 - 2:30pm
Gwyde
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A lost year for gold miners

We 've seen three successive minima in the HUI/Gold graph. A first major one on June 26th, after which a failed rally took miners and metals higher until the second half of August. HUI/Gold faced another fresh low (0.166) on Oct 6 and we needed waiting only some 7 weeks to see this low take out once again on Nov 26. HUI/Gold slid to 0.1632 that day and has only marginally recovered since. It seems like we are going to drag along that floor level, possibly finding another pit still lower on the way to 2014. You can find fresh graphs on the GoldMinerPulse blog page. Definitely a lost year for gold miners.

On the the “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”, we were kind of 'lucky' posting an only minor (-0.41%) loss last week. The cap weighed return even was positive (+1.31%), mitigating somewhat the loss accumulated over 2013. Gains (9) are balancing losses (9) on the list, with 5 stocks flat over the week.

We're sliding once more with stiff losses this Monday. It doesn't bode well for the week ahead. With December the month for tax loss selling and precious metals challenging their June 28 low, I can't think of any reason why we should see miners improve before this year ends. It's also several years ago that precious metals surprised to the upside during the last weeks of the year. In 2011 and 2012 we've seen some heavy selling pressure in thin trading between Christmas and the year end.

To end with an informative note: Kitco covers the 2013 San Francisco Metals and Minerals conference in a series of interesting video presentations: https://www.kitco.com/news/video/

Gwyde
Mon, Dec 16, 2013 - 4:44am (Reply to #124)
Gwyde
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Poor comfort

We eventually broke the losing streak of several consecutive days of losses haunting us till Thanksgiving. Not that December brought much relief: the HUI used about any excuse to plunge even further: be it the tapering talk which made broad markets correct from their all time highs or any orchestrated plunge of precious metals. In between we've seen some recovery rallies among miners, possibly (hopefully) indicating a bottom formation. The HUI/Gold ratio slid to a new low on December 5 and there has hardly been any real recovery since. My last call on HUI/Gold has been awfully accurate:

It seems like we are going to drag along that floor level, possibly finding another pit still lower on the way to 2014. You can find fresh graphs on the GoldMinerPulse blog page. Definitely a lost year for gold miners.

There's again fresh graphs on that same URL address, so you can check for yourself. Last week we had three up-days for the HUI index, but the Wednesday slide wiped out much of the gains of Monday and Tuesday. On balance the HUI is up less than 1.5%.

As for our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”, it's a mixed bag. Cap weighed, we post a 1.4% gain over the week, mitigating the aggregated loss to 40.96%. The average result however, further deteriorated by 0.22% to 42.52%. We had 12 list components up against 7 down over the week, with the 4 remainder unchanged. We owe the poor average result to a 20% slide for microcap Brixton Metals (hardly contributing to the cap weighed return). Aurcana didn't do well either, but on the up-side we posted nice recoveries for Excellon Resources and Medusa Mining.

Gwyde
Sun, Dec 22, 2013 - 8:39pm (Reply to #125)
Gwyde
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No mercy

With the much touted tapering, precious metals have been sliding for weeks now. Highly disproportional to the true impact of the measure, but all is in market perception.

Needless to argue the HUI miners index once more a made fresh low last week, as did gold bullion: actually closing below the June 28 intra day low on Thursday.

No mercy for our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”, which added to its losses. We were particularly unlucky with Aurcana, which slid 32% on Friday after announcing the suspension of production at Shafter and placing the mine on care and maintenance. Over the week, Aurcana is down over 55%!

Our aggregate loss adds up to 44.97%. We had 8 list components up against 14 down over the week (with Excelsior Gold at break-even).

It's quite a while ago I've received any suggestion for including any new pick on our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet. After all that's what it was designed to be. Very little enthusiasm after a miner bear market ending its third and worst year.

Gwyde
Sun, Dec 29, 2013 - 10:39am (Reply to #126)
Gwyde
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The gold bear getting tired ...

Last two years, we've witnessed a plunge of precious metal prices from before Christmas leading to the New Year. The relentless gold bear raids from mid April onwards, lead to a multi year low for gold on June 28, and the following recovery completely was wiped out with gold equaling the June 28 low on Thursday Dec 19. It seems the gold bear has gotten ahead of itself and we won't witness another raid during the two trading days left.

Much the same accounts for the miners, which ceased to leverage down precious metal prices over the last week and were particularly vigorously reviving, despite meager gains for the metals. Over the short trading week leading to Friday Dec 27, gold added a timid 0.86% on the Comex close to end at $1213.80, while -after its major plunge- silver added 3.43% closing at 20.08. The HUI index of major gold and silver miners added 4.23% with the HUI/Gold ratio now up to 0.1633, hovering above its decade low. Particularly among the juniors, the bottoming process is all but fluid. Roaring upswings for some stocks alternate with violent profit taking and tax loss selling leading to an unprecedented volatility, despite little new information driving the markets.

On balance our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet” mitigated its loss to 42.44%, up 4.52%. Over the week, 19 stocks are up, against two down and two more breaking even on the list. Despite its plunge on Friday, Miranda gold adds more than 17% over the week, now again climbing out of the red. We also have double digit gains for Aurcana (after its plunge upon closing down the Shafter mine), for Excellon Res., Medusa Mining, Sabina Gold&Silver and Timmins gold, all of them mitigating their loss.

Ivanhoe mines lost some of its gains and Moneta Porcupine was the other shaker, down 8.3% over the week. What forming a bottom may do to an inverse leveraged ETF is clear: DUST saw its accumulated gains trimmed from about 200% to 160.7%.

Gwyde
Sat, Jan 4, 2014 - 7:37pm (Reply to #127)
Gwyde
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A little improvement despite ....

Last week I underestimated the combined effect of tax loss selling and the usual shenanigans intending to make the metals end the month lower. All got concentrated on one and a half day, with the yellow metal once more testing its low. The first trading day of the year showed a marked reversal, with speculators flocking into the very miners and metals they threw out just a few days before. Precious metals saw a follow through on Friday, but miners hesitated after the Jan 2 rally.

Yet the HUI index is back up to 203 and that's good. Though, putting things in perspective, that's almost exactly where the time series on Yahoo started off 17.5 odd years ago: back to square 1. One important difference though: back then gold quoted $389. You find a long (6 years) HUI and HUI/Gold graph plotted on: https://gwyde.blogspot.be/2014/01/hui-mining-index-relative-to-gold.html

Despite the year-end plunge we have a little improvement for our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”, which is up 5.7% over the week (3.5 trading days). The aggregated loss is mitigated to 39.15%. Gains outnumber losses 19 to 4 with no mining stocks breaking even. Among the double digit gains, we count Moneta Porcupine, Aurcana, Eurasian Minerals and Sabina Gold & Silver. They mitigate losses incurred and contribute to the lower aggregated loss on our list. Over the long haul, we're left with only three stocks up since inclusion.

Gwyde
Mon, Jan 13, 2014 - 8:53am (Reply to #128)
Gwyde
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Markets turning on a dime

The first full week in 2014 proves markets to become unsteady. What accounts for the broad stock market, also reflects for precious metals. Until Thursday, we had two up days of modest gains, followed by a two day slide turning the week deep into the red. Yet Friday saved it all with a decent recovery rally. On balance, precious metals add very little. Gold is up 0.86% since Friday Jan 3 to close at 1248.6, while silver is almost unchanged at $20.17. Miners weren't too inspired either, though equally recovering on Friday to end the week up only fractionally (0.26% on the HUI). The usual updates on the HUI/Gold, Sil/Silver and graphs on Canadian Miners are to be found again on the GoldMinerPulse page, with updated graphs on the long term performance spread of individual Miners on: Canadian Miner's Performance.

A mixed blessing also for our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”, which is up 0.53% over the week. Weekly gains outnumber losses 11 to 8, with four components flat over the week. We did enjoy a few double digit gains (Monument Mining, Romarco Min, Aurcana) offset unfortunately by a few slides in the high single to low double digits for some heavyweights on our list. Continental Gold and Eurasian Minerals were among the victims. Long time winner Ivanhoe Mining also had to hand in some of its gains.

Gwyde
Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 7:32am
Peoples Front of Judea
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where to buy miners

Trying to buy Ginguro mining stocks in the UK ......Looked everywhere cant find a thing can anyone help .....yes

Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 11:18am (Reply to #130)
Prem124
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TD waterhouse allows you to

TD waterhouse allows you to buy TSX venture stocks. You can either buy them for ISA/trading account or SIPP. You will have to fill a form first which can be downloaded from their site. I don't think many others allow investing in venture stocks.

Thu, Jan 16, 2014 - 12:07pm
Peoples Front of Judea
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THANKS PREM124

yes

Sat, Jan 18, 2014 - 5:38pm (Reply to #129)
Gwyde
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Miners reviving

Broad stock markets are hesitating after the December rally. Over the week Nasdaq holds on to a tiny gain but the S&P couldn't keep up. Precious metals seem to be floating with the tide. Over the week, both gold and silver were retreating, but rally back on Friday to end the week up marginally. Gold ends at $1254, (+0.44% over the week) while silver closes at $20.32, up 0.74% over the week. Over most of 2013, poor gains would have sent miners sliding. However a different mantra seems to have taken the lead. The HUI index added 3.47% over the week, making HUI/Gold appreciate to 0.173. Whereas this is hardly something to be proud about, comparing where we started 2013, it's definitely up since the December 2013 low. It's not that most miners suddenly have turned highly profitable, but rather that investors simply are fed up with the doom scenario. For now, miners are leading the recovery of precious metals. With the HUI miners index up 12.5% year to date, the absolute dog over 2013 must be one of the best asset classes these first few weeks of 2014. You find fresh graphs on the usual GoldMinerPulse page.

So where does that lead our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”? Not too bad: we're even beating the HUI in its recovery. Last week we book an aggregate gain of 10% and cap weighed that adds up to 12%. We cut the loss to 32.63% and cap weighed that translates to 30.72%. Last week 17 list components are up against 5 down, with Miranda Gold unchanged. Over the long haul, only three components are up.
Yet many of our miners and explorers significantly cut their losses. The best pupils in the class rally well over 20% last week: Almaden Minerals, Continental Gold, Sandstorm Gold, Timmin's Gold and Tanzania Royalty Expl. were our top picks.

Gwyde
Sun, Jan 19, 2014 - 9:34am
Marchas45
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What Do You Think Of NGD

I'm really new to miners and getting ready to take the plunge and after some research my gut is telling me to go with (NGD) New Gold Inc. and (NG) NovaGold Resources Any thoughts?

" Keep Stacking Charlie Say's Hello!! "

Sun, Jan 19, 2014 - 10:33pm
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I would choose Pretium instead. PVG

I like Pretium as the best miner to buy.

some now, and more upon a pullback towards 5 dollars.

Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 3:58am (Reply to #134)
Gwyde
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RE: What Do You Think Of NGD

Imo, NGD is the safest bet of your two suggestions. It's better to stick with producers as long as you're new in precious metal mining. Among the major gold miners, Goldcorp has the best cards.

With explorers, profits can be huge, but the risk of losing over 90% should be borne in mind. NG has plunged from over $10 to below $2 in 24 months and seems on its way to recovery, having rallied to around $3. You should be realistic: with gold prices where they are, NG is not going to be bought out. Donlin Creek, their well drilled and explored concession, needs higher gold prices to become a profitable mine development project.

The spreadsheet is worth taking a look at. Though we're still down over 32%, that compares favourably to any of the ETF's in the benchmark section. The best picks on our list keep cutting their losses. With solid market timing, this list could already have gotten out of the red.

Gwyde
Mon, Jan 20, 2014 - 3:42pm
Marchas45
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A Big Thanks

Thank you Gwyde I tend to be looking at NGD and I just checked out GoldCorp also. Thank You

" Keep Stacking Charlie Say's Hello!! "

Tue, Jan 21, 2014 - 4:07am (Reply to #137)
Gwyde
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Goldcorp launches bid on Osisko

After lengthy negotiations for a friendly merger were unsuccessful, Goldcorp launched a hostile bid on Osisko mining. Osisko is one of the mid-tier gold miners with a quite large resource base. The bid was promptly rejected by Osisko, but ultimately it are the shareholders who get the last word.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-20/osisko-recommends-shareholders...

Gwyde
Sat, Jan 25, 2014 - 5:59pm (Reply to #133)
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Countered by stock market weakness

Last week has been rather atypical. Fear for economic activity stalling in the emerging economies sent stock markets lower globally. The pull-back hit Wall Street full force on Friday. The rosy growth scenario had backed stock markets so far, also causing platinum and palladium to rally, while gold had to take the back seat. This tendency has reversed last few days: PGM's are sliding, while gold is keeping strong. Silver can't uphold either and slid back below $20. The miner's rally seems to be petering out. HUI/Gold kept up at 0.173, after peaking last Tuesday at 0.177. Over the week, the HUI still posts a timid gain. You find fresh graphs on the usual GoldMinerPulse page.

We faced some headwinds on our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”. The list performance shows a 0.7% loss, bringing us down to an aggregated 33.1% loss. Cap weighed that is trimmed to 31.97%. On the list, 13 miners are up against 9 down, with Moneta Porcupine steady. With a near 20% slide over the week, Argonaut Gold has spoilt the broth. The Q4 results were not well received. Ivanhoe mines was weaker too, on account of PGM's sent down again. Decent gains for Excellon Resources and Oceana Gold couldn't bail us out.

Gwyde
Sat, Feb 1, 2014 - 3:37pm (Reply to #139)
Gwyde
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Miners rally petering out

Last week's tendencies are continuing. More general stock market weakness, after Turkey and South Africa had to crank up interest rates to curb the slide of their currencies. It makes the USD look strong. With some more tapering, US indices are ending January well off the high by the end of 2013. As goes January so goes the year? Precious metals didn't gain anything in the whole story. Gold was up three days, but the slide on Monday and Thursday colors the week red (-1.8%). Other precious metals are off worse: silver is down 3.7% over the week. Platinum and Palladium are off worst. Since bottoming at 0.85, the Gold/Platinum ratio is back up to 0.91.

HUI/Gold kept up at 0.174, off the week high of 0.176 we were at Wednesday. Over the week, the HUI posts a 1.3% loss. You find fresh graphs on the usual GoldMinerPulse page.

Once more, we faced some headwinds on our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”. The list performance shows a 2.8% loss, bringing us down to an aggregated 35% loss. Cap weighed that is trimmed to 34%. On the list, only 6 miners are up against 16 down, with Moneta Porcupine steady. Both Platinum Group Metals and Ivanhoe mines were weaker, on account of PGM's continuing to slide. Up 8.14% over the week, Asanko gold is our best pick this time. There's little left of the good spirit we started 2014 with.

Gwyde
Sun, Feb 9, 2014 - 3:38pm (Reply to #140)
Gwyde
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An unsteady recovery ...

Until last Wednesday, general stock markets were continuing their slide, with precious metals recovering some of their late January losses. Miners sympathized with general stocks to the downside, making HUI/Gold slide below 0.17 for the first time since mid January. Friday however made our week, with miners roaring back as both precious metals strengthened and the stock markets made their turnaround. You find the usual updated graphs on HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver along with miners indices and performance disparity on the GoldMinerPulse page.

Where does all of this lead our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”? Our list is up 2.6%, leaving behind the HUI which scraped together a tiny 0.83% last week. Until Thursday, we weren't even holding ground, but then sentiment turned on a dime. We have 14 miners up on our list, against 6 down and 3 flat over the week. Over the long haul, PLG is the only miner still up. Ivanhoe Mines (Ivanplats) and Miranda gave up their gains. Both are now flat since inclusion. Platinum group metals are retreating relative to gold since a few weeks now. This shouldn't affect a well funded mine developer as Ivanhoe Mines (after all there are no mining revenues yet), but it does. Asanko Gold, Continental Gold and Oceana Gold are the best picks of last week, up double digits and considerably cutting their previous long term loss.

Gwyde