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The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 8:56am
It's a mystery
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So there's this

A few years back I had a long phone call with Alan Goldman. He was a frustrated day trader. But in the course of his chart reading he stumbled on something. Unfortunately, he has not figured out a way to crack the code in real time but it was Alan that clued me in to the final piece to the puzzle.

If you are bored on New Year's Day, spend some time watching his videos. At times he is hard to follow. It is largely due to his excitement and irritation as to how rigged everything is in our "markets."

https://www.thedowcode.com

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 10:24am
It's a mystery
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Largest bid in Gold futures I have ever seen

and I have done this a very long time.

At 1204 and change someone bid for slightly over 1500 contracts and they showed the size. That NEVER happens.

GDX ever closer

nbvnv

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 10:42am
ivars
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See Market collective

See Market collective consciousness as emergent phenomena knows when the USD value question will be solved. This Market consciousness none of its members ( maybe) possess individually is what we call charts. It is a mind of new organism made up of smaller cells ( traders) and clusters ( traders behaving similarly). Works like a brain with somewhat specialized function.

So already from Nov 11, 2013 the charts ( collective consciousness of traders) knew its going to resolve on January 29-30th, 2014. If You drew the lines little more accurately, triangle extends to Feb 5th, which is fine, its ADP date, as Feb 7th is January NFP date, and debt ceiling end date.

My bet- USDx will break UP. I have shorted EUR USD along JPY, may be a bit prematurely, but the break of triangle can also happen prematurely if there is enough hints or.even leaked info. They won't be able to downplay taper intentions much prior to FOMC as TOO good stats from all sides will cascade.

Edit: and here is one immediately - read into its focus- I have no doubts artificial unemployment measure will be 6,8% in December NFP, <=6,4% in January NFP.

Quote:
The Conference Board, a private research group(:) ), said its index of consumer confidence bounced back to 78.1 in December, from a revised 72.0 in November, first reported as 70.4. It is the highest reading since September.

The December index is better than the 76.5 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

The board's present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, increased to 76.2 from a revised 73.5, originally put at 72.0. The current index is the highest since April 2008, the board said.

Consumer expectations for economic activity over the next six months rose to 79.4 from a revised 71.1, first reported as 69.3 in November.

Within the board's confidence survey, views on the current labor market are more upbeat. The improvement supports expectations for another solid gain in hiring in December. The Labor Department will release its December payrolls report January 10. Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 in October and 203,000 in November.

The board's survey showed 12.2% of consumers this month think jobs are "plentiful," up from 12.0% thinking that in November. Another 32.5% think jobs are "hard to get," down from 34.1% who said that last month.

Consumers also are more optimistic about labor markets over the next six months.

Those anticipating more jobs in the future jumped to 17.1% this month from 13.1% saying that in November, while the share anticipating fewer jobs dropped to 19.0% from 21.4%.

Private would mean independent:). Not here. Life must be exceptionally good now in the USA according to numbers. No problems, trends taking care of all of them in a sweep.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 10:49am
brokerk22
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Charts

I am curious if if if if we do have a currency reset and lets say the PM do double or more overnight. Are the charts and elliott wavers going to say the charts showed them this? I say bullshit if they say it did. No damn chart is going to show this and you damn sure arent going to trade it. AM is a smart guy but I disagree with trading. Sit tight and be right and keep stacking.

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 11:06am (Reply to #4435)
ivars
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brokerk22 wrote:I am curious

brokerk22 wrote:

I am curious if if if if we do have a currency reset and lets say the PM do double or more overnight. Are the charts and elliott wavers going to say the charts showed them this? I say bullshit if they say it did. No damn chart is going to show this and you damn sure arent going to trade it. AM is a smart guy but I disagree with trading. Sit tight and be right and keep stacking.

Markets will know it before, if only by leaks provided to "insiders". So gold wont change overnight, but start to show spike say week before that. Such things can not be executed without preparation, and as soon they will be in preparation someone will know, sell the info and gamble on it, creating upward pressure. I am not sure about Elliot waves, but looking at charts and having broad background info, making enquiries, looking who trades how one may figure out what is coming. My opinion. I am not a trader though, just starting (few years). 

Looking at S&P and doing so called Sornette analysis one can predict more serious then expected taper coming (and stock market crash) in January, lead time about 2-3 months prior to the top. That is from chart purely.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 11:14am
ENOUGH
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BROKER 22

IMHO

Paper gold will collapse prior to reset..... 

The BEAR EW count is a "paper gold" count, NOT physical. There is a "premium" on physical and I expect this premium to be multiples of paper price itself when it is time....

Always, I am short paper/long physical to some degree, only lifting the shorts side from time to time....

I expect BOTH sides to profit when the time comes....

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 11:20am
It's a mystery
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Why not go to the tape?

https://www.safehaven.com/article/16985/gold-early-1930s-vs-early-2010s

FDR sent gold 75% higher overnight end of JAN 1934. Please examine Homestake Mining Chart.

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 11:40am
ivars
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@broker22

And if market does not know the direction, only date, You will see a triangle as I charted above for USDx. Triangle can resolve either up or down..so the closer the moment comes the more need there will be for info until finally someone will get it and break the triangle. There may be a fake breakout to other side engineered by someone, but usually that would be telling. In this case lead time is short..for a concrete move comparable in scale with triangle size. There could be long term pressure up or down ( like bull or bear flags then these triangles are called) that would indicate market knowledge about the trend. But I doubt that can happen in case of currency reset. Too many people at the top are interested to benefit from it . 

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 10:03pm
eclectic
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An Important trading...

event occurred today in London. Physical prices diverged from the futures; failing to confirm a new low. We'll get some type of small bounce (similar to the December 4th lows) when the same pattern occurred. Paper should have been aggressively bought. I don't believe this is THE low, but I could of course be wrong. This adds vindication to the idea that physical is the dog; and paper Comex the tail. My 2-cents.

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 10:07pm (Reply to #4438)
eclectic
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And if we get a sell off in

And if we get a sell off in the general market; they will probably take down the goldies; just as in 1929. Note the averages topped in early September; but Dome and HM topped a little sooner; in August. They continued down with the rest of the market until the ultimate lows in November, 1929: then diverged. 

Tue, Dec 31, 2013 - 10:31pm (Reply to #4440)
ivars
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eclectic wrote: This adds

eclectic wrote:

This adds vindication to the idea that physical is the dog; and paper Comex the tail. My 2-cents.

Thanks for this observation! How I love when people agree that COMEX is just a game in terms of price discovery of PMs. It is not so often-especially among those who love to play that game and are convinced COMEX can suppress physical prices alone.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 12:30pm
ENOUGH
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PAPER GOLD DOES NOT = COMEX

Paper gold consists of many "products" and to associate paper gold synonamously with Comex contracts is incorrect....

Unallocated and Allocated metal contracts are also paper gold and probably have a greater fractional multiplier than Comex...

Note both Morgan Stanley and UBS have plead no contest to never having purchased metal for ALLOCATED contract holders...

AND charged them storage fees for the fictional metal....

It is quite possible that the failure to deliver emerges in this sector rather than comex....

Guten Rutsch to all, E.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 1:14pm (Reply to #4443)
fslade
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"Paper gold consists of many

"Paper gold consists of many "products" and to associate paper gold synonamously with Comex contracts is incorrect.... Unallocated and Allocated metal contracts are also paper gold and probably have a greater fractional multiplier than Comex..."

Exactly - this has in fact been pointed out on this thread already at least once, let's see if this time the posters who ignored it and instead post voluminously and authoritively, but incorrectly, about the gold market listen to it.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 1:43pm
ivars
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@fslade

I got the hint..never said COMEX is all paper promises that can be built on top of physical gold. Only sad that COMEX plays practically no role in gold silver prices alone. If you control physical as well, you use COMEX to corner the market. If You do not have physical, no effect. JPM uses COMEX to hedge their client positions. Natural. When GLD SLV builds up, clients are long, JPM short. When GLD SLV pukes, JPM is long cause clients are short. 

If there are paper promises out (of course) that stand for delivery in real market where no cash settlement is allowed, then of course that paper participates in price setting and if it stands for delivery and someone does not deliver price will move up. However so far everything is delivered in physical or contracts rewritten i do not know. Usually as long as there is no run on the bank leverage of paper over gold is not so important up to some testable level. 1:400 could be dangerous. 1:100 seems to be fine. Normal fractional banking.

And then there is Turkey and others who may be forced to deliver as GLD runs out of tons. Nothing is lost before everything has been tried. 

I only focused on COMEX because Main street tries to read into it so much and position COMEX as main tool for cartel to suppress physical prices. That is pure ..bad word. 

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 2:52pm
fslade
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The last 53 posts by Ivars

The last 53 posts by Ivars and IAM (not including the one half an hour ago by Ivars), and the hat tips for each. A graph, each on the same scale.

Ivars hat tips are not a natural distribution. IAMs are. I can't explain quickly why this is to someone untrained in statistics and unused to seeing such data - and someone trained in statistics will agree with me. 

State it for the record Ivars (with the knowledge that a moderator can easily check) that your hat tipping is legitimate. If you do so, I'll never post here again.

A LOT of people read this thread - I think the information on here should be legitimate.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 3:40pm
ivars
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What do you mean by

What do you mean by legitimate? I hat tip myself once usually cause i like those hat tips to be not 0, so You can subtract one but that won't change distribution shape.

Otherwise, I have on average over 2,5 years 8 ( ok 7) hat tips per post. I used to get much more in 2011 2012 then nowbroken heart

I do not get 1o or 12 lately because I have noticed that requires expressing some emotion -usually, not always- against/anger/sarcasm about price manipulation, physical reality vs paper scam that will collapse , firm belief in gold price move up, etc..i do not have such emotions that I can repeat with enough frequency.( 

Also, attacking someone personally is a good thing for > 10 hats, preferably with some expletive ( You are missing them as well) . I do not have these emotions either...

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 4:03pm
ENOUGH
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FWIW

My comment on paper gold was a response to this comment by eclectic:

"This adds vindication to the idea that physical is the dog; and paper Comex the tail. My 2-cents."

My response was not meant to be anything other than informative and not a criticism of the author or anyone else....

Recently, I believe the Dutch banks of ABN and Rabo subtly "cash settled" unallocated and/or allocated customer PM accounts?

Best, E.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 4:19pm
Solsson
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Oversold - Overbought

God fortsättning forum medlemmar!

The Swedish blogger David's charts published at KWN smiley

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/1/1_Th...

Oversold: Gold&Silver especially miners

Overbought: S&P

The biggest news on national Swedish television text-tv on New Years Eve was "USA stockmarket ended the year in a strong fashion" The recovery is strong in USA and that explain the successful stockmarket in 2013. They say Buy stock there is no risk of a downturn in 2014

Weird times. 

I got +1,92% pay raise , thank god the inflation is low. Our CEO got 190million SEK in sign on bonus. +362million SEK in bonus for 5 years work. No I am not working in a bank ... and yes I've been working very hard. I got a prize as "The systemleader of the year".

New movie out. The 400 wealthiest in USA own more than 150million Americans. 15% on foodstamps, like i said before weird times. No i am not a communist, no i am not a socialist. Yes i appreciate entrepreneurmanship a great deal! There is just no common sense out there anymore.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 4:31pm
fslade
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If you state that they are

If you state that they are real and I'm wrong then ok, I'll never post here again.

Wed, Jan 1, 2014 - 4:39pm
ivars
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@fslade

They are all real except 1 my own one per post.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac

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