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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 9:21am
ivars
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Nice move in oil. WTI 100

Nice move in oil. WTI 100 USD! USG needs inflation badly, as does FED. Oil is the best tool to make it happen in recession. 

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 9:23am
HappyNow
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Hope you all are having happy holidays

Was away somewhere warm and came home just in time for a postcard-worthy White Christmas.

Trader Dan has put up some food for thought concerning positions in PM's. I suspect he is taking dead aim at sites like Turd's. To a lesser extent Santa's.

Once you get past the insight on JPMorgan's position etc. which makes a great argument there is some serious danger alert.

What if there are still a lot of 'strong hands' (he calls them stubborn) that eventually get broken and run for the hills? I know the prospect of a 15 handle in silver has been raised here. Dan provides one good explanation of where the fuel for that can be found.

I am one of the stubborn ones but with even the seasonal trend broken I find myself pondering my gold and silver long position held since late 2009. Haven't made any money doing shorter term trades in awhile.

I tried to post the link to Dan's article but having trouble doing so. It is Friday Dec. 20.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 10:11am
csquared13
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great day to be long

great day to be long crude. still have 2/3 UCO from last month..maybe sell another layer today and let the last one run through Jan. if it can get through $103ish, top of weekly channel reaches $114-$116 and I think it's possible...so far the candle on the monthly is looking pretty strong to me too. just IMHO. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 10:44am (Reply to #37967)
pailin
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HappyNow wrote: I am one of

HappyNow wrote:

I am one of the stubborn ones but with even the seasonal trend broken...

What's your definition of seasonal trend? My definition isn't broken unless the fall/winter produces a low deeper than the previous spring/summer low. Those are 1280 and 18.20. And that can happen at any time since we're barely off those numbers. But I don't see "the trend" as guaranteeing a certain gain of altitude over previous lows or anything like that; more just a likelihood of where peaks and valleys lie on a weekly/monthly view. Looking at last year and 2011, in both you (hopefully) got stopped out of your longs pyramid-style in Feb-Apr, then either shorted or sat on your hands until summer lows (typically late Jun-mid Aug). It's an oscillation, so it's fun to try to pick that bottom, but once you're in June...good to be on your toes if you're interested in getting long. So with that, we should see our next 'high' (but not lower low) between now and February-May. That high-water-mark sets up for a (most likely) low under 'whatever that number is' in the spring/summer 2014! And from there we 'should' expect a fall/winter 2014/15 range that's higher (but not necessarily a lot higher) than whatever that 2014 low number is!

Interested if you have different parameters, above has worked very well for me, but... :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 11:25am
ivars
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See when everyone needs

See when everyone needs inflation to taper govt agencies deliver. There was a report of private research that USA oil inventories have gone UP on Monday or Tuesday unexpectedly. On Friday, they go DOWN by unexpectedly large amount. Really a fast turnaround!

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 11:27am
csquared13
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Just opened long AMD. For

Just opened long AMD. For those of you following the Bitcoin/Altcoin mining stuff, check out this piece. Pretty interesting:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/1891251-amd-so-how-much-does-the-interest-in-litecoins-matter-for-amd?source=kizur_seekingalpha

Think it could see $5 easily in 2014, but more likely higher. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 1:20pm (Reply to #37971)
BlackHawk
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Truman Lake, MO
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Long AMD

You might check out TSM for a chip maker play. It's been steadily chugging along for me since 2010.

Nice going on your WTI long csquared13. I should have followed your lead. Will prolly have to capitulate on my short position today since its Friday and price isn't moving much since the inventory report. I wonder how many tankers they had to fill and anchor offshore to get the inventory number they wanted?

Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 1:30pm
Lord Henry
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The 5 Most Lamentable things about Xmas 2013

1.) I'm not mountain-biking in Colorado this Christmas .

2.) When I draw back the bedroom curtains, there isnt a pile of rusting Jags, stretching out further than the eye can see.

3.) Miss Uruguay isnt standing skimpily clad in my kitchen, cooking up man-sized portions of fried eggs and crispy bacon.

4.) Realising that every cloud has a silver lining. (That cant possibly be good news).

5.) Expecting that friends of Bitcoin can fix 1,2,3 and 4 in time for Xmas 2014.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 1:40pm (Reply to #37972)
csquared13
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Thanks BH. I should thank P

Thanks BH. I should thank P too since he's the one who turned me on to seasonals. 

I just try to follow the seasonals and basic TA...and not let the news cycles shake me out of positions. (November was brutal, which makes sense since, looking back now, we can see it was the swing low.)

Just barely noticed the dollar put in a new low today too....the trend on the daily is as clear as day. (lower highs/lower lows) of course it's not the primary reason for upside in oil, but it must help a little bit. 

Maybe Jim Willie can tell us where those oil tankers are anchored cheeky

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 5:08pm
csquared13
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oh i should also mention that

oh i should also mention that i am not an oil perma-bull. will happily jump on the short side on any type of break down through support/re-test as resistance type of trade setup if the opportunity presents itself. i just try to have a long bias from nov/dec. don't necessarily disagree with rico and CK for 2014 crude outlook..also think long natgas might make more sense from risk/reward perspective.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 7:13pm
Big Buffalo
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ivars - your thoughts? (others obviously invited to add comments

ivars: if you would not mind too much...what are your thoughts with the USD/JPY at this point and maybe at 108.00ish? It has been on an amazing trend upwards since 97.50 (using the 4 hour chart), but when looking at the monthly chart, it looks to be at the top of a downward channel. Any help would be great...

The same goes for EUR/USD, perfect 4 hour upward trend, but when I pull out and look at the monthly, there's a wedge forming.

Ba-zinga!
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 7:18pm
ivars
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Riga
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@BB

Hi I think 108 will come soon enough in USD JPY. EUR USD I think topped today. .or then very very soon. Not later than December NFP which I think is coming Jan 10.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 8:05pm
Big Buffalo
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@ivars

thanks!

do you think they'll likely turn the other direction and in the channels? and aside from my above very crude, simple charts, is there anything thing else you have brewing?

Ba-zinga!
Fri, Dec 27, 2013 - 10:51pm (Reply to #37971)
madcow
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csquared13 wrote: Just opened

csquared13 wrote:

Just opened long AMD. For those of you following the Bitcoin/Altcoin mining stuff, check out this piece. Pretty interesting:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/1891251-amd-so-how-much-does-the-interest-in-litecoins-matter-for-amd?source=kizur_seekingalpha

Think it could see $5 easily in 2014, but more likely higher. 

still holding my longs, havnt been adding any. Probably wont pick up more unless it drops below my average or under 3$

Sat, Dec 28, 2013 - 1:43am
ivars
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@BB

I am looking at history - USD JPY has been way up in past (144) , while EUR USD way down (0,90) so these i think are attraction points so , while there could be some corrections, may be until EUR USD clears the triangle to downside, longer term ( 1 year) it continues i think quite possibly in USD up directions on both charts. I have these numbers as targets for Yen in my mind, but it should clear it, for EUR may be that will be the bottom. 

EUR USD may have one more oscillation within a triangle , may not. USD JPY i think will clear this channel upwards.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Dec 30, 2013 - 9:23am
Rico
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mREITS and muni CEFs will be

mREITS and muni CEFs will be great trades for 2014--buy 'em while you can.

As Art has pointed out, grains will be in abundant supplies worldwide. A great way to play falling prices is selling OOM options. Yes, it requires a tiny bit of patience, but you will become a believer as you watch your futures acct "miraculously" crank out 1-2%/month. It works with equities, too, but the futures seem to be more consistent, for me. This is one of the key techniques behind those crazy ZH headlines like GS goes a year without a losing trade--their traders grind out singles, day after day. So easy even a well-connected frat boy can do it...

Ivars, try a little Martin Armstrong--it will definitely improve your forecasting.

Mon, Dec 30, 2013 - 11:20am (Reply to #37969)
HappyNow
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pailin wrote: HappyNow

pailin wrote:
HappyNow wrote:

I am one of the stubborn ones but with even the seasonal trend broken...

What's your definition of seasonal trend? My definition isn't broken unless the fall/winter produces a low deeper than the previous spring/summer low. Those are 1280 and 18.20. And that can happen at any time since we're barely off those numbers. But I don't see "the trend" as guaranteeing a certain gain of altitude over previous lows or anything like that; more just a likelihood of where peaks and valleys lie on a weekly/monthly view. Looking at last year and 2011, in both you (hopefully) got stopped out of your longs pyramid-style in Feb-Apr, then either shorted or sat on your hands until summer lows (typically late Jun-mid Aug). It's an oscillation, so it's fun to try to pick that bottom, but once you're in June...good to be on your toes if you're interested in getting long. So with that, we should see our next 'high' (but not lower low) between now and February-May. That high-water-mark sets up for a (most likely) low under 'whatever that number is' in the spring/summer 2014! And from there we 'should' expect a fall/winter 2014/15 range that's higher (but not necessarily a lot higher) than whatever that 2014 low number is!

Interested if you have different parameters, above has worked very well for me, but... :)

Fair comment. The seasonal trend isn't violated. When I said broken I meant not working well. Barely holding together is a better description and it isn't March yet so it's not over either.

I didn't get long on one of the 5 or so days of 18 handle. So the seasonal isn't doing much for me right now. It's not a wipeout but really disappointing. 

As you say technically it is holding together.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Mon, Dec 30, 2013 - 12:25pm
csquared13
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Here's my Weekly WTI that

Here's my Weekly WTI that I've been trading off of.

There are Daily and Weekly pivots around this $100 level marked by horizontal resistance in blue.

I'm looking for $106-$107 as a conservative upside target and $112-$114 as an aggressive/optimistic target (circles @ channel top) 

Not sure if I already mentioned this, but this month's candle shows some pretty legit bullish engulfing action IMHO. (although maybe not as bullish as it looked yesterday given the slight retreat from $100) Anyways, I think it's worth noting for the near-term.

Perhaps 2014 does bring the big sell-off, but maybe not before new highs...of course WTFDIK? 

https://www.screencast.com/t/qSwAYchRv03c

clW_12292013.png

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Mon, Dec 30, 2013 - 12:26pm
SilverWealth
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comment

Good tidings and Happy New Year to all. Good to see some of the old gang are still thriving here. Kid Rico is still about and gun slinging.

My take is a Dogs of the Dow take. Starting in January I get the sneaky feeling that miners will catch a dogshit bid by the tricksters. They lead the real stuff so the real stuff does not need to rally to bone up the Miners. I will only be looking at good business model miners but I will not be surprised to see them all of a sudden out of nowhere and Hell shoot up 25%. Its how the game is often played and these limping whelpers have been horsewhipped for so long now that no one wants to bother and everyone is wearing earplugs to block out the terrifying cries and screeches from these things. Sure once they crawl up out of the basement the owners will come back home from work and absolutely hammer them back down the steep cellar stairs and onto the cold cement floor of the boiler room. This will be a timing trade with a window of only 1 month max IMO only. Just a question now of watching the tape and looking for igniting candles stuffed up the rear ends of these mangy whelpers. Best to all, S.W.

Mon, Dec 30, 2013 - 1:38pm
csquared13
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Anyone like coal? I

Anyone like coal?

I traded WLT long during the Oct to Nov swing, but took profits and ran.

Looking back at the trade now and wondering if I should have held a core position for 2014

Monthly charts (BTU, ANR, ACI) all at multi-year lows.

I'm keeping my eye out here and may put on a trade soon. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota

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