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The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Dec 23, 2013 - 8:24am (Reply to #4364)
redwood
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Dagney

Yes. They do.

Mon, Dec 23, 2013 - 11:56am
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Usually I put up weekly

Usually I put up weekly charts on Monday, but not this week.

Aurcana price down, mine shuttered.

Is this good or bad news?

Well, there is this side to it: By putting the Shafter project on "care and maintenance", they didn't sell forward to the banks at a 3 years low metal price. This preserves inventory for sale a (possibly) higher value, tightens supply, and the noose around the necks of shorts trying to break metal prices down to a lower level.

It's the diametrically opposite kind of news item to last week's story of an LBMA Executive advising mining CEOs to the effect that it's going down more, sell all you can now (to exchange member banks) or you'll be out of business.

Watch and wait.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Dec 23, 2013 - 1:54pm
thedukes
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Gold & Business Cycle Relationships

Very nice cycles work analysis from the main thread. Everyone should have a chance to read it going into the new year.

Mon, Dec 23, 2013 - 3:00pm
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Thanks for reminding me, I

Thanks for reminding me, I keep forgetting to put a link to the blog here when it's relevant to the topic in this thread!

For those who don't follow Main St. and might have missed it, ( I know most regular Turd-ites will read both) here is the direct link:

Gold & Business Cycle Relationships

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 8:49am
ivars
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Love the spin. Its so

Love the spin. Its so telling. Tapering badly needed soon, apparently. 

Quote: WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods rose 3.5% in November, led by aircraft and other transportation equipment, the government reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected overall durable-goods orders to rise 2%. Excluding the volatile transportation sector,orders rose 1.2%, the most since May, U.S. Commerce Department reported.Signaling increasing confidence in the economy, orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investment, rose 4.5% in November, the strongest growth since January. Shipments of core capital goods, a category used to calculate quarterly economic growth, rose 2.8%, the fastest pace since March 2012. Meanwhile, shipments of overall durable goods rose 1.8% in November, the most since July 2011. Also Tuesday, the government revised durable-goods orders for October to a decrease of 0.7%, compared with a prior estimate of a 1.6% drop.

Whenever statistics beat expectations surprisingly strongly, GET the MESSAGE! :)

Meanwhile, banks ordered to stay in stocks. They will get the signal when to leave prior to crash . Insiders getting out rapidly.So far really a simple 1929 rinse repeat (plus minus QE to extend the bubble- it popped a bit too early in 2007)?

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 12:53pm
It's a mystery
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Allied Nevada

Once a $40 stock now mid 3's. yet, over 20% of the alleged float is short.enlightened Shorting a stock down 90% seems a bit odd.

Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 12:55pm
Cottonbelt21
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W

A possible six month ‘W’ formation building in gold from a good friend … either that or a flush of the June 2013 lows – likely will know relatively soon time wise. 

Kudo’s to AM and consistent quality of thread since inception as we navigate our way into 2014…

Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 1:18pm
It's a mystery
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Well this is interesting

Markets close at 1PM EST. 

AVG GDX volume 38M shares.

GDX volume 33M

Anyone want to see if there was another ETF that even sniffed avg volume? Only action I saw tdy was TWTR, which is getting dumber by the day.

Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 1:30pm
ivars
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Its 8:30 P.M. here and I can

Its 8:30 P.M. here and I can not wait more to see 10 year T take out previous max of 3,01. 

Anyway, it will if not today then this week. Few more statistical victories and we are there. And then see you at 4% in February. 

So Merry Christmas everyone !

P.S. In our country, 24, 25 and 26th are state holidaysyes

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 6:59pm
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To all the readers of "The

To all the readers of "The Setup For The Big Trade" both those in Turd-land and also those who come from elsewhere to visit and read what we contribute here, I would like to send best wishes to you and your loved ones at this time of friendship.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Dec 24, 2013 - 9:21pm (Reply to #4381)
tailspin
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Argentus Maximus

I am a lurker on "The Setup For The Big Trade" since its inception and I want to thank you for your very interesting posts, and wish you and your close ones a joyful time now, as well.

Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 5:40am
ivars
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IAM how do You think this triangle will resolve?

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 5:43am
ivars
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And this?

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 9:28am
ivars
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Interesting service-quite new

Interesting service-quite new and concise. Armstrong has been quite accurate on gold in 2013.

https://armstrongeconomics.com/market-watch/

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 9:28am
ivars
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Interesting service-quite new

Interesting service-quite new and concise. Armstrong has been quite accurate on gold in 2013.

https://armstrongeconomics.com/market-watch/

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 10:14am
It's a mystery
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Worthless? You decide who and or what is worthless

wes

bvcb

Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 10:54am
why do I even bother
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China

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-26/what-chinese-consumers-are-rushing-buy-christmas

I am on holiday in Sanya, Hainan Province, and these scenes are for real. These people are buying - quite literally (think about this phrase) - "like it is going out of fashion"

The ZeroHedge article noted that Chinese consumers are buying at the bargain price of CNY 287/ gramme - about US$47.28. Even after todays spikette, that is a premium of 21% over the COMEX price, and is entirely consistent with my own experience of buying Gold Panda 1oz coins in Blackpool, England and selling them retail in Shenzhen for a 20% markup 3 days later

In short, therefore, the Chinese think they are snapping up a bargain when they can buy Gold at CNY 287 x 31.1g ÷ 6.072$ = $1469 / oz. GO FIGURE

'Free Advice Is Worth Every Penny'
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 4:31pm
ivars
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Also thinks 2014 will not be

Also thinks 2014 will not be too good for gold prices:

https://english.people.com.cn/business/8496765.html

Quote: The sluggish recovery of the world economy and the expectation that Fed

will exit quantitative easing (QE) from early 2014 have reduced current global inflationary pressures. Combined with a significant rise in U.S. =10 year bond yields, this means thatU.S. domes

tic long term real interest rates will rise significantly too, said the yellow paper. 

In the immediately foreseeable future, the effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will remain strong due to 

the Fed’s QE exit and the corresponding inflow of short-term international capital to the U.S. from emerging markets. As a result, emerging market economies will slow the pace of diversification of reserve assets and their demand for gold reserves may decline.

But they do not mention the possibility of the USG default to FED. That should arrest=support gold prices above 1000 USD level in H1 2014.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 5:45pm
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Altinvestorshangout Audio Interview with AM

Rahul at Altinvestorshangout produces well thought out material and I subscribe to keep track of his youtube podcasts.

He interviewed me today for a conversation about the Argentus Maximus Blog article about Gold & Business Cycle Relationships of a couple of days ago

The interview is available on Rahul's Youtube channel here: AltInvestorsHangout : Argentus Maximus - Gold and Cycles

I hope you find it worthwhile and of interest.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 26, 2013 - 6:25pm
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Re: Interview

Excellent Analysis! Great preview of things to come. Thanks AM and Raul!!

The Setup-The gift that keeps giving! Gonna be an interesting 2014.

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