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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 9:10am (Reply to #37905)
Spinky
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pailin wrote: Somebody asked

pailin wrote:

Somebody asked how to buy gold in yen terms...a synthetic is short yen (in USD) and long gold (in USD).

Thanks P, that was me.... I'm doing one half of the trade, and will probably execute the other half (long gold) in the coming months.

Only metal I'm long atm is Zinc (in paper that is). Turd Spinky Zinc Report - Zinc bitcheZ!

To hold a pen is to be at war - Voltaire
Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 9:18am
Rico
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Long-term chart info on

Long-term chart info on PMs is not that bad, and things will likely bump along the bottom for 2014--call it a "rebuilding year", in the language of NFL moronscool:

Gold: very long-term (monthly) trendline puts the terminus at ~950-975, which I think will be reached sometime in 2014. This also corresponds to the 61.8% retrace on the monthly Fib, which, if you're going to use the famed "magic numbers" technique, represents a pretty fucking high-probability statistic--so backing up the truck down there seems reasonable (GLD calls, selling OOM puts, etc.)

Silver: Likewise, the trendline takes us to around a ~14 "exhaustion" phase (not 15, but who's counting...), which is also an astounding 78.6% retrace on the monthly Fib. Again, at this point, the prisoner will have finally been tortured enough, and the guys in the hoods with the battery clips will be bored and exhausted, too, and silver will be released, dazed and emaciated, to wander the streets of City 17, wondering WTF happened to it over the last few years...

Note that these prices will be well below any conceivable costs of production, so terrible "upstream" damage will have finally come to pass by that point, leading to near-ideal supply/demand situations for the longs.

In the meantime, take advantage of the continued ride down.

Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 11:26am
Rico
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It's The Most Wonderful Time

It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year...to be long the Nattie...

Energy will continue to be a good long in 2014, but I will continue to collect premium on CL options, comin' and goin'--finally've got the hang of it.

Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 12:14pm
Lord Henry
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In order to illuminate the matter

With yet greater brilliance, might I be so bold as

to impart that the millionaire who refuses to recognise

the reverse alchemy (uncontrollably unleashed to impose

derivative divisibility to all manner of asset classes alike)

phenomenon, or those that recognise it but are in denial about

acknowledging its effect on their assets (which may prove

ultimately to be liabilities) , places him or herself at a disad-

vantage to the thoughtful citizen who has taken all this on

board, and planned accordingly.

I did give serious thought to the roadwarrior domain.

However, the idea of warriors downloading data onto their kindles

seemed somehow unfitting, and quite unbecoming to a Lord of the

realm and/or rings.

 

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 2:52pm (Reply to #37908)
csquared13
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Rico wrote: It's The Most

Rico wrote:

It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year...to be long the Nattie...

Energy will continue to be a good long in 2014, but I will continue to collect premium on CL options, comin' and goin'--finally've got the hang of it.

Yep...somehow I have had way better results trading oil over the metals. No complaints here...still holding 2/3 positions of UCO. 

In Dicker's book, he mentions that natgas typically is cheap during times of recession and expensive during times of growth. If market perception is continued economic growth in 2014, then I think you're right about being long next year. I bought some HGT after the recent pop and plan to average down in to any further weakness. 

Also, still long CJES from earlier this year. 2011 and 2012's earnings were awesome...looks like 2013 may not be as awesome, but should still be pretty nice. You still like this pony, Rico? Doesn't seem to get much coverage compared to the other big services companies, which actually makes me a bit bullish. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 4:55pm
Lord Henry
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@ Bitcoin fans

Here is the perfect item to buy for your loved ones 

this Christmas. Its the BMW bubble car. But to be

perfectly frank and honest, the BMW bubble did just

get bigger and bigger.

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 5:34pm
Rico
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CJES

Yeah, I just think it's a company with super-strong management, doing what they need to do. It is a bit of a "poor cousin", but, sooner or later, is going to move up significantly on either execution or a buyout. Having said that, I would stop at 20, but with an eye to getting back in, if possible. My forecast (worthless) is that its 18-20 days are behind it, and I expect it to hang in the low-mid 20s until something happens.

Here's another one to grow on: JOY. Same deal: execution or a buyout, that baby is gonna move. Too much company there for somebody not to pounce...

Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 11:32pm (Reply to #37851)
madcow
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Deluxe186 wrote: Listen I'm a

Deluxe186 wrote:

Listen I'm a firm believer that if you take 10,000 and catch two 10 baggers you'll never have to work again.

If only it were so easy ahah. I hate that i dont know anyone IRL that understands investing/trading ect. Trying to learn it on my own is fun but its sometimes hard to figure out who is bs and who isnt on the intertubes. Wish i had started at 27 like you, not that i would have picked any winners (hind site being 20/20 :p)

Thu, Dec 19, 2013 - 11:33pm (Reply to #37872)
madcow
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Spinky wrote: 1. PMs:

Spinky wrote:

1. PMs: physical purchasing only. I've gone into the bullion biz to take advantage of this environment, which is going to be a protracted bottoming process. As others have said, long PM trades have been a redundant strategy and continue to be.

2. Bitcoin, Litecoin: we go to c.$3000 BTC and hover there for a while. If we dip below $600 again, it's a gift. Visionary stage past, Early Adoption stage in full swing. And plenty of opportunities to arb between crypto currencies.

15$s as well for me. My first short trade will probably be a break of 18$ (if it happens)

Agreed on the BTC/LTC, tho im thinking sub 500$ is the gift. Pissed i missed the 450 dip and i was looking right at my screen around 480 as well. Damnit haha. Time from for 3k may be a year or 2 out but, its competley doable.

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 3:40am (Reply to #37913)
Deluxe186
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Catching the first 10

Catching the first 10 bagger is the easy part. It'd be betting the 100k the second time that would be the hard part. You don't need anyone in real life. Look at me every bond trader I knew this summer said taper is coming in sept and they were all wrong. I knew two bond traders who bought gold in jan of this year...not so smart. All that said I think when Gold pops in 2014 or 2015 it'll be one of the best options plays in a very long time. Rico's right buy the call options at 14.

Id honestly just pay attention to jim rickards twitter and ben davies of hinde cap for when the metals are ready to move. Davies called up and down moves and is a realistic silver bull imho.

Rico still holding the spy calls...you think we'll trend up into year end because that's what I'm thinking you seem to have a better sense than me.

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 5:20am
Spinky
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Spinky

$3000 just seems to be the goldilocks number, or the top of the s-curve. If you look at world-changing things like 'twitter' or even the internet itself, it tends to have a slow gestation where it's ridiculed, and strengthens in the process. Then it's picked up and simply becomes accepted. Call it Schopenhauers 3 stages of Truth. IF this is early adoption, then $3000 suits several metrics.

I can remember being very young, and actually hearing discussions on talk radio with people saying "what's the the point of this internet thingy? It doesn't do anything, its waste of time. Go outdoors and do something useful."

....global, instant, naturally-deflationary, digital currency is just the last hole-punch in our ticket through the transcendental object at the end of history. Not that I'm a cryptocurrency evangelist or anything hehe :)

@Deluxe I love Ben, but his calls in 2012 were way off. Bet-against-Ben could have been a profitable trade. His fund is down -32% for the year. C'mon Ben take your finger out :)

To hold a pen is to be at war - Voltaire
Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 6:14am (Reply to #37916)
Deluxe186
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Spinky wrote: @Deluxe I love

Spinky wrote:

@Deluxe I love Ben, but his calls in 2012 were way off. Bet-against-Ben could have been a profitable trade. His fund is down -32% for the year. C'mon Ben take your finger out :)

Go back and look at his interviews on silver from kwn. In aug of 2010 he nailed it. Whatever propritery system he has are amazing. In 2012 he talked about how gold could be set to rally that the risk/reward was skewed in your favor. Right around that time someone in here charted two things a. the down trend b. a fib fan on gold and they retraced perfectly.

His fund is long only so its naturally going to be down. Same with an equities long only firm in 2008 and 9.

Jessecafeamerican just posted the gold to contract ratio it stands at 79-1. If yellen says print....yea I may not live past those next couple of months with all the cocaine and hookers. The question is just having enough dry powder available for it.

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 9:41am (Reply to #37915)
why do I even bother
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" investors lost their faith in PM as a store of value"

'Free Advice Is Worth Every Penny'
Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 10:13am
BlackHawk
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Truman Lake, MO
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
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POT

POT Finding some serious momo this morning. Anyone see any news or reason for that?

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 10:44am
Rico
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The less you pay attention to

The less you pay attention to the financial/MSM/blogosphere, the more intelligent you become--think about it. This is not directed at anyone in particular.

Add: Was researching BH's question, and came across this load of crap (how a propos...)

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/13/new-study-paints-a-terrifying-picture-of-nuclear-f.aspx#.UrRgUpGCCGk

There are literally hundreds of these each day...

Add #2: General jubilation in Ag-land today...

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 11:25am
csquared13
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well said Rico. since

well said Rico. since learning to focus more on price and technicals, i have found myself to be far more accurate and consistent..especially when combined with tuning out the financial media/analysts/etc. my friend thinks i'm nuts for not "following the news." i'm okay with that if it means i am improving my trading.

BH: regarding POT, i see it simply as price moving back towards the top of its daily channel. here's my update chart. since rtabit hasn't been around for a while, i guess someone has to share charts. cheeky

EDIT: I suppose I could have drawn in a down-trending channel for the Nov-Dec decline, but I think this simple channel setup is better left simple. Sometimes drawing too many lines not so good...the Degrees of Freedom Bias immediately comes to mind, as I was just re-reading Van Tharp's book yesterday. 

potD_12202013.png

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 12:27pm (Reply to #37920)
BlackHawk
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Joined: Jun 15, 2011
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Comment Roundup

Quote:
Add #2: General jubilation in Ag-land today...

rico - Yeppers, We're happy over here in the perimeter too. BH had a rooster roundup a couple days ago and the Amish ladies butchered them for me. We shared halves. Bob, the psychopathic flock alpha male is in the frig, soon to ensconced in a quart mason jar, along with five of his fellows. He flogged me once in the face while I was picking up trash wood in the chicken yard and nearly knocked me down. Wearing safety glasses to do chores saved my eyes. Who knew?

LH - Alas, with Bob dead, now BH has no worthy adversary to pick on, so I choose you, Lord Henry. My God, tattooed women are an eyesore. May you roll over, on some bright morning, to see that babe next to you, when she celebrates her 70th birthday. That's gonna be both crepe-y and creepy.

Quote:
regarding POT, i see it simply as price moving back towards the top of its daily channel. here's my update chart.

csquared13 - Thanks for the chart. I see what you mean about the channel. I so rarely see anything move up while holding a position lately, that I guess I got overly enthusiastic.blush

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 1:18pm
Lord Henry
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718
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Yes, Ben

had a disappointing run this year. The rising star orbits a

black hole. Every dog has his day, then bites his own tail. 

Much of the same criticism can be levelled at the German

auto-makers. Sometimes the new paintwork I look at is so orange-

peely, it could have been applied with a Karcher pressure washer.

I'd never want to give it to a customer, thats for sure.

 The 'leather' interiors have been made from a hide thats been split

so many times, the 'grain' has to be applied by a gigantic heated

press. That doesnt really matter though, because the surface-only

applied paint colouring is usually wearing through after about 6 months

anyhow. Propaganda is all. If you have to buy new, buy a Ford (imho),

(or a Jag).

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 1:36pm
Rico
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1901
6337

Never thought about that

Never thought about that paint and leather car stuff--pretty interesting. What should the informed buyer be looking for? I remember looking at a new Honda leather interior a few years back, and thinking that there was something fucked-up about it, it felt wrong.

Fri, Dec 20, 2013 - 4:50pm
tonym9
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actually impressed with

actually impressed with silver here. i expected it to elevator fall to 18 land based on gold's fall. holding 19mids is pretty good given the situation. ....and all those in pm long land exhaled a sigh of relief that gold is back in the 12s...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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