Well...

228
Wed, Dec 14, 2011 - 9:37pm

...that was interesting, wasn't it? A long and crazy day but I do have a few things to add.

First of all, I thought I should re-post this in case you missed it earlier. Thank you to "Pining" for the fantastic piece of Photoshop art:

My two favorite parts are Atlee giving everyone the finger and the hot chick jumping off the bow.

In case you missed the updated charts I posted at about 4:00, here they are again. I can re-use them because prices haven't changed much in the time since. However, I have a feeling that that's about to change.

You may have seen this earlier at ZH. Its a new technical summary from Citi. In it, they claim that gold should bottom at around 1550 but still trade to around 2300 next year. Gee...where have I heard that before???

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-predicts-gold-3400-next-two-years

ZH also posted the stock market section of the same Citi report. It included this vehwy scawey chawt. Yikes!

Next....Never fear, the CFTC is here! What a Cartoon Corral these morons are...

https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-mfglobal-cftc-idUSTRE7BD20L20111214

Ole Eric King was hard at work during the downdraft today. First, he interviewed Santa and then he tracked down Egon von Greyerz. Both will be required listening when they are finally posted in their entirety. Until then, here are links to partial transcripts:

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Jim_Sinclair_-_Why_Gold_Was_Smashed_Today_%26_Whats_Next.html

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unrest.html

Jeff Nielson has chimed in with a terrific column that discusses negative lease rates and Libyan gold. I find all of the attention today to negative lease rates rather interesting as I'm pretty sure TFMR was this first place to notice them and warn of impending doom last week. Not that that's any great honor. It's kind of like being the first White Star lookout to have seen the iceberg.

https://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=23385:the-bankers-new-gold&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

Lastly, just a word or two about today's open interest numbers. (Remember, the numbers we got today reflect the changes from yesterday.) Two very important items.

  • The Feb11 OI only fell by about 500 contracts. When added to the 1500 contract decline of Monday, Feb11 OI is only down 2000 contracts while Feb11 gold is down about $53. I would have expected a much greater drop in OI. What this confirms for me is that there are very few human holders of Feb11 contracts. Almost all of the Feb11 contract holders are WOPR on one side and the sub-human EE on the other. If this is true, the likelihood of finding a bottom near 1550-1560 just increased quite a bit. What I'm driving at is: I feared that the MFGRAP would permanently scare away buyers of paper Comex contracts. However, if the spec long position is almost entirely WOPRs, they'll simply flip back over to "buy mode" as soon as the technical picture improves. IF gold bottoms as I hope, we should soon be able to buy paper with confidence and expect a handsome rally.
  • Dec11 gold continues to get new open interest. We added 137 brand new contracts yesterday...all in the face of a selloff? When added to Monday's gains, we've got almost 650 new contracts this week! That's amazing!! There is clearly an effort afoot to jump the queue and get some gold delivered this month and not wait for February. No, I don't think that the gold Comex will collapse from the weight of this. Not this month, at least. However, this potentially speaks volumes about the utter lack of bulk, physical gold available in the world. Very, very interesting and must be watched.

OK, that's all for now. Be on the lookout for some sharp volatility overnight and tomorrow as the metals search for a bottom. Let's see how today's lows hold up and keep our fingers crossed. Regardless, keep the faith and be happy. You have chosen to sock away savings in real, true money. Do not be discouraged by the blatant and shameful price manipulation tactics of The Cartel. The precious metals are going to have extraordinarily strong, fiat-relative performance in 2012. Soon, the pain of today will be long since forgotten.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

Velocity
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:26pm

@ Smiddy ....Prechter is a Fraud

I'd agree with Prechter the markets reflect human emotions insofar as they reflect investors confidence or lack thereof putting their money on the markets. Everyone throws their money in good economic times at housing, internet bubbles, Apple shares etc etc

What Prechter is saying is there are 18 Elliott Wave patterns (of human behaviour) for a market to rise or fall.. even with an 18 to 1 chance and huge amounts of roped in and stolen other metholgies (confidence indicators, RSI divergence, volumes, moving averages etc etc) he STILL cannot predict the market

The proof of Elliott Waves total incompetence is in its results: they're PATHETIC

Over the near 2 years i was a paying member to these Elliot Wave fraudsters they failed miserably at everything. Non-stop calling Gold tops, stock market tops and their calls on currencies. Wrong, wrong and wrong yet again. As an investor it was carnage. The prick could have lost me my life savings if i'd listened to their consistently incompetent advise

But the utterly delusional and arrogant Prechter thinks he knows it all... when he knows precisely nothing/zip/0.00 about PM price movement and cannot time them or the stock markets. Elliott himself who convinced Prechter of the theory died poor i heard too if more proff of their ineptness ever be needed

EW is a total sham and i sincerely hope Prechters latest top calling in Gold gets rammed down his fraudulent throat once again as he's been the laughing stock of the PM community for years now

Velocity
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:30pm

@ Purchaser : Fitch Bank Downgrades

What took Fitch so loooooooooong???

Since 2008 ALL those banks have been, and continue to be, insolvent.. their huge risks outweigh their puny capital, they should all be junk

TheGoodDoctor
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:38pm

Risk list 2011 A new supply

Risk list 2011

A new supply risk index for chemical elements or element groups which are of economic value

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/riskList.html

Here is the article this originated from.

https://resourceinvestingnews.com/27905-critical-supply-economic-risk-me...

Bay of Pigs
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:38pm

Hey Velocity

You sound a lot like a regular over at Zero Hedge. Your handle there? (I think I know it already ;o)

Tyler
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:46pm
roadtoruin
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:08pm

Grandich calls Gartman one of the ‘three stooges of gold forecas

Grandich calls Gartman one of the ‘three stooges of gold forecasting’

Peter Grandich has called out fellow investment newsletter writer Dennis Gartman on his assertion earlier this week that gold is now entering a bear market.

In the latest installment of The Grandich Letter, Mr. Grandich said Mr. Gartman is a “true master of self-promotion” whose “track record better suits him for the lead role in ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf.’”

He also named Mr. Gartman one of the “Three Stooges of Gold Forecasting” alongside two other well-known gold commentators, Jeff Christian, the managing editor of CPM Group, and Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.

“Mr. Gartman is one of three people who many in the media continue to quote despite a nearly decade-long poor overall track record on gold,” he said. “He, Jeff Christian and Jon Nadler have demonstrated to me (and I suspect many others) that a broken clock’s percentage of telling the correct time in any given day is about the same as their actual accurate forecasts for gold in the last decade.”

Mr. Grandich said he is willing to wager any of the three US$1-million that gold will hit US$2000 an ounce before it hits US$1,000 on the COMEX.

....

https://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/14/grandich-willing-to-wager-...

Strongsidejedi
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:29pm

MF Global testimony

The stooges are up on the stage before the other stooges in the chairs.

The one group of stooges is saying Yuck yuck yuck

The other group of stooges is saying woo woo woo.

So far, the Congressional stooges look like...well...stooges.

So far, the MF Global stooges look like they're confused.

So far, the CME's Terry Duffy looks like an abject liar. Duffy claims that CME is not allowed to investigate the situation. Duffy also claims that he is facilitating the transfer of people's money back to them.

Then, the trustee's lawyer testifies that they are returning billions of dollars to clients, but reaching about 70% of the funds.

Want to bet that the CME is sitting on the other 30%?

Strongsidejedi
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:31pm
Strongsidejedi
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:33pm

Terry Duffy claims

Terry Duffy claims that CME had balanced ledgers for segregated accounts as of Wednesday and something happened on Thursday and Friday prior to the end of MFG.

2nd Dan Fred
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:36pm

Duffy Testimony

"We were receiving falsified reports" on the segregated accounts....WOW I am surprised....Duffy better watch out for the big dirt nap. I am starting to feel like someone of some consequence will actually have to be sacrificed

Last Rebel
Dec 15, 2011 - 6:09pm

@Romanoff,PVC tubes, ammo

@Romanoff,

PVC tubes, ammo cans, desiccants, O2 absorbers and shovels. No need to go offshore. When it goes down you'll never see what you have overseas. Think about it, even if you could get it will it be here in time? Blessings.

Edit: PVC sheeting, 4-6 mil at least and duct tape.

Vince AinT
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:03pm

AinT RE: Patterns in random numbers

I am here on this site explicitly to counter confirmation bias. Individual investors would improve their lives and wealth so much by focusing on these while making decisions.

Velocity
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:13pm

@ Bay of Pigs

My crap diction and punctuation is an easy connect :)

silver foil hat
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:43pm

Let's sum it up so far..

NDAA.... unrestricted power to 'detain' citizens sans trial or probable cause.... check.

MFG 'default' (actually a clear theft) of farmer's monies for spring seeds... leading to food shortages.... check

Soldiers in Iraq being handed thousands of dollars in new $100 bills while being videotaped (for later blackmail)..... check

Those same soldiers being told they better serve to 'guard' the FEMA 'guests' courtesy of the NDAA... else their families (and themselves) will be entitled to free FEMA food and lodging when the tape of their financial windfalls will be produced.... check

(I wish I had that link to the Alex Jones interview with a US Army soldier who made that claim.... someone here posted it, I think it was embedded in another story)

So there you go. Anything else to add to the checklist? Anyone?

Teach
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:11am

American protection...

Living next to the U.S.A. is kind of like living next to the Hells Angels...no one will break into your house, but you can easily be hit with a stray bullet or a poorly thrown Molotov Cocktail....and Harper is the classic psychophant wannabe hopping up and down asking : "Whatta we gonna do Spike, huh? Whatta we gonna do?"

Teach
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:24am

@Teach Let me guess...

...you're Canadian?

:)

Teach
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:34am

Neighbours

That'd be true, eh? Cheers 'n Merry Christmas to Turdites all, from North of the 49th. In Gold (and silver) we trust!

turnoffthewater Shill
Dec 16, 2011 - 7:37pm

I will also add that I think

Very true and enjoy the gesture.

Once we had a govt by the people and for the people. Now, it's going to be a govt by the govt for the govt. the whole system is broken. Any building at begin with the words fed, needs to go away. Thanks as always, Shill

Written by a very sadden patriotic american.

Turn

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

randomness