The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 9:08am (Reply to #3051)
It's a mystery
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Maybe u mean

Manipulation? As proven by Nanex and seen on ZH this AM?

foscotanner wrote:

some capitulation happening today!

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 9:29am (Reply to #3052)
foscotanner
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Well.....

Manipulation or capitulation.....

Well now.....

It could be either.

There could very easily be an entity that is short on stocks or something else that has a very large margin call that simply had no choice but to sell a large block of an asset class. I put this into the capitulation category.

There could very easily be an entity that just decided to execute an order all at once. Because it can. I guess that is the manipulation category.

Either way - the following should have happened:

- A lot of stops should have been taken out. Paving the way for higher prices.

- A lot of damage done. So either it repairs or we may need time or more down.

- Ilya should be happy and long Silver and Gold.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 10:02am
Kid Salami
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The fast rise from $20.50ish

The fast rise from $20.50ish in silver - which resulted in a long green weekly candle and a several green daily candles whose bodies did not overlap - was not retraced at all until now. With all the nervousness at these levels, I'd be very surprised if we go higher without tagging that breakout level first. Gold a bit different to silver and had back and filled on its way up, but one won't go down without the other so today seems like perfectly healthy action to me.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 10:05am (Reply to #3053)
foscotanner
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observation

gold has revisited lows on day.

silver didnt entertain it.

just an observation.

2.59pm

~EDIT: I am not paying 100% attention to market, but i am not really seeing a Heavy foot today. I would describe it as more a lack of buyers so heavy foot not needed?

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 10:57am
ENOUGH
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REWORKED

S&P......The now alt. count for the P4-C1 triangle is on the edge. The upper limit of this count is 1709, but really the S&P should turn from the 1689 to 1692 level. The 78% retrace for minor B of major [C]-P4-C1 wave is 1692. The minor C of major [C] wave target would be 1609 where C=A

GLD.....major [1]-P5 topped at 137.55 and major [2] is going for the 50%/62% retrace 126/123. This count is valid as long as major [2] holds the P4 low of 114.68 

FWIW

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 11:37am
It's a mystery
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How the world turns

Putin has emboldened Syria as the world is now firmly against US strikes. Assad now calling for US to stop supplying arms.

So we have German elections, FED taper, Syria, a stock market hopelessly over valued and Treasuries on the precipice.

Sell Gold?

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 11:52am (Reply to #3057)
foscotanner
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well....

you would think that in the past week that there would have been a bit of volatility where the markets were not sure.

it seems to me that the markets feel pretty sure and it is just us that are left waiting to see what they are telling us.

or maybe a certain group have been earning some overtime by being very busy.....

EDIT - Example on markets being sure = Dow going in one direction and not zig zagging.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 12:13pm
Ilya Repin
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@ FOSCO "- Ilya should  be

@ FOSCO

"- Ilya should be happy and long Silver and Gold."

Long yes, but not happy. My targets were hit and hit on time. but that is no reason to be happy. We are happy when it reverses back up and not before wink

It pretty critical really. Its not rebounded as planned.

It goes up or we go to 20$ for the first stop.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 12:22pm
redwood
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I'm expecting gold and silver

I'm expecting gold and silver to pop any moment. Of course wrong is always possible.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 1:25pm
Rui
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A good article

Not sure if it has been posted. I don't think there's going to be a new low (not yet at least) but the author made a good point regarding the suspicious high volume dumping at the high.

"Is the Manipulation in the Metals about to Begin Again?"

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 1:26pm
It's a mystery
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Buy signals

in a well known system execute today and tmrw in gold equities.yes

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 4:08pm
It's a mystery
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Well that was awful

GDX just backtested its trendline breakout and we now have a new uptrend however meek with three touches. Of course we could crash tomorrow making this feel good commentary pointless!no

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 4:13pm
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Overboughtness is now unwound

Overboughtness is now unwound and the gold price momentum has fallen to the lower part of it's rising channel.

A significant fall from here would concern me.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 9:09pm
T
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Visualizing the next head and shoulders

The chart is looking like the next right shoulder would form around 1350 in the coming days/weeks....... and then plunge down from there to retest whatever low can be achieved.

This current plunge to 1320 (from the 1350 area) could bounce and zig zag around,as you described, any movement upwards ought to form that right shoulder at 1350 area. It would also serve to remove the current 'oversold ' condition, and set up the next wave down. I would imagine the next retest targets down would be 1300 and then 1270. 

Its just a question of where one wants to 'buy the next dip' 1320 now is a dip. 1270 is a better bargain ,but a small gamble as well.

During this July/August rally, that pullback to 1270 (which you caught correctly) , I was waiting in vain for 1250 .

1250 is still a target once again. but whats the difference to coin buyers between 1270 and 1250. or even 1300. I just know I wouldnt buy at 1400. I would buy at 1300. I wont buy at 1500. I might sell a bit (PHYS) at 1500. in order to buy back at 1350.

I'm not so worried if gold falls to retest 1270 again. Its a nice bargain. 

I'm much more worried watching what the miners are doing.

A billion Chinese and Indians are buying gold. they are not buying the miners though.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 9:18pm
Rui
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Thinking out loud like a criminal

Silver is sitting right over 50/100DMA. One typical trick EE uses is busting key tech support to scare weak hand speculators away. Now wouldn't it be great if they paint a sudden punch down to 21 or lower to breach both 50 and 100 DMA in one day? That would trigger a lot tech selling counting on the two big MAs for support.

If I were EE I'd go for it, and Friday might be the right date for it.

Either way I'll let GDX chart tell me where the bottom is. It should show up when big unmistakable buying returns.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 9:39pm
redwood
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'One typical trick EE uses is

'One typical trick EE uses is busting key tech support to scare weak hand speculators away.'

Seen that countless times right? I made an early, impulsive and wrong call today. I hope it is just early as so many indices are at critical levels. WS tomorrow as it encompasses the time frame argentus has kindly outlined for us.

Thu, Sep 12, 2013 - 9:57pm
T
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gdx timing

Looking at the volume bars on GDX, I can see what youre saying, a bunch of down days .red bars in a row, maybe 4 bars, to hit a bottom. This current wave down has been different though , in zig zag fashion, alternating up and down. But when we see less volume selling days in a row,smaller bars, might be a tell. I'm kinda looking at the 24-23 area as the target zone.maybe next week ?

Fri, Sep 13, 2013 - 12:34am (Reply to #3068)
Rui
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GDX volume

Big volume after a significant move tends to signal exhaustion of the move, and we had 64M shares traded on Thursday. It does not guarantee an instant bounce back we'd love tho, not when this leg down from 31 has an average of 46M shares per day, which is impulsive.

Fri, Sep 13, 2013 - 4:13am (Reply to #3069)
foscotanner
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miners

There is an amount of disconnect in the miners.

The HUI is pretty close to lows. There is however an interesting line from June to Aug low that needs to be watched.

If you look at miner companies - there exist divergencies.

TNX.TO & PVG.TO are around 40%-50% up from lows.

MUX which bottomed later (didnt have jump up and higher low in Aug but skidded along the bottom until Aug) is also 30-35% up from bottom.

So this feels as if the selling in the miners is no longer killing everyone. Therefore this suggests to me that a worst case is that we are bottoming since the selling is now probably speculative and index and is not dumping of stock. What should happen would be for specific stocks to exhibit strength here and move contra to the indexes since their stock is simply being snapped up at bargain prices.

Fri, Sep 13, 2013 - 4:28am (Reply to #3070)
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psy-op / sentiment

As far as i can see sentiment is pretty awful.

It feels like June.

The difference is that in June Argentus was more sure on the bottom.

What is really weird is the strength of stocks this week. It is easy to assume that it is the PPT but I do not fully buy that. What if it is something else that we do not realise yet. What could that be?

Here are some ideas:

When Cyprus happened - big money moved out before hand. So what if a big bank was about to go boom? what would happen to big money? where would it go? other currencies? stocks? could big money move to gold? what if the big bank was involved in gold? I have no knowledge but am simply speculating. BUT..... What is up. Stocks. Pound. Euro. AUD.

The way gold was trading yesterday - there was NO volume or interest. It was worse than a slow summers day. Gold down 2%. And post London close their was simply no trade. What was with that? Is it the signal that no one is interested in being a buyer with paper. Is this down move caused by inside knowledge that only physical will be worth something soon? Paper contracts about to be ripped up or something?

Or is it more simple. The move in certain currencies and stocks have caught some entities on wrong side and there is big liquidation on things in profit (silver and gold)?