Pailin's Trading Corner

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Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - 2:50pm
Lord Henry
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Happy New Year to All

The Silver market left a lot of us 'High and Dry'

in 2012, and here is Radiohead to remind us.

<iframe width="1280" height="720" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BciOfJsqh7M" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - 5:42pm
redwood
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fwiw, HUI has been showing a

fwiw, HUI has been showing a nice trend line from mid May. If it holds things might be good.

Had a good day except I have a bad habit of fighting with the market. Bad form and of course it costs. I just realized that today. A slow learner ya might wannna say.

On that note, it has been a very good learning year. That in itself has been gratifying and I thank everyone here at the corner. We've had many challenges just as we expected a year ago. I remain optimistic about 2013, it may even be exciting for a while. It may even counter some of the crap we had to endure this past year.

Hope everyone has a safe and exuberant New Year's eve!

Mon, Dec 31, 2012 - 9:29pm (Reply to #31333)
Bum in the library...
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same to you brother!

same to you brother!

Tue, Jan 1, 2013 - 3:56pm
Lord Henry
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Jim Rogers outlook for gold 2013

<iframe width="1280" height="720" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JoqfIpmy9tI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Tue, Jan 1, 2013 - 3:59pm
Lord Henry
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Marc Faber's market outlook 2013

<iframe width="960" height="720" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IXW5g7PhbTE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Tue, Jan 1, 2013 - 10:27pm
redwood
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If the fiscal cliff is

If the fiscal cliff is resolved as it seems it will at this time of posting, we will have our own rendition of fire works tomorrow. The market should respond accordingly at least for this week. Happy New Year.

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 5:19am
kevsta
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charts

posted these on another forum over the break, might be of interest to some here too

on weekly the trendlines from the bottom in the summer held perfectly. was anybody (else but Pailin) bottom fishing on that $1635 spike? I would have been, off that bottom trendline, had I been around

gold big picture, still looking good to go, IMO.. interesting the perfect accelerating timing of each peak, and roll-over too, eh? 

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 6:26am
Strawboss
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Now that the fiscal farce has

Now that the fiscal farce has been "resolved" - its time for NUGT to get to work.

Happy 2013 everyone. May all of your trades be green...

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 6:55am
Big Buffalo
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7:30 and 8:30

It'll be interesting to see how 7:30 am and 8:30 am treats the PMs this morning. It's usually the time where we get a kick in the bojangoes. But with the "deal", just not sure if the old pattern continues.

Ba-zinga!
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 7:05am
Strawboss
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So since we have hit the debt

So since we have hit the debt ceiling, does that mean that the Treasury wont be selling anything for the next couple of months and that the Fed wont have any new Treasuries to buy this month and next? Or will the Fed buy $45B of existing Treasuries?

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has. Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!! Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 7:29am
pailin
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seasonal stuff

PMs should be good* to at least mid/late Feb. After that put your stops under, move them up from time to time and ride until market (stops) takes you out. Be OUT (at least of speculative positions) by April/May at the latest. Stop asking "why?" and just go with it. DON'T get swept again by this market! Be alive and flush with cash instead for the usual summer bottom late June to mid August. Trust me...you want to be able to buy back in then. Just like 2011. Just like 2012 :)

My most effective (even when sloppily handled) strategy. Ever.

And if you can't handle silver (and gold) moving as much as 10% against you...you are under capitalized and should not be trading at all. Go back to stacking moderately** instead. And please leave enough cash on the sidelines to pay your bills.

*in the sense of not making new lows

**at/under 200 dma only

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 7:40am
Rico
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@Pailin,That about sums it

@Pailin,

That about sums it upyes

Here's another resolution for 2013: Minimize your use of information "sources", MSM, Blogosphere, or otherwise! None of those writers know any more about market direction than you do. You should not be speculating unless you can make your trading decisions strictly on the basis of raw data such as COT, weekly/monthly data releases, TA, etc. All the endless palaver is just NOISE--it's fun to read (occasionally), and great for "parlor games", but is extremely dangerous when used as a rationalization for trading decisions.

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 7:45am
pailin
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efficient markets

All markets presently making total asses out of fiscal cliff tax sellers. That's efficiency for ya :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 7:53am (Reply to #31343)
redwood
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In substance agree.  But one

In substance agree. But one can use it very well to know where the sheeple are sitting. The only way I use it. Current example included.

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 7:57am (Reply to #31342)
redwood
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Thanks for your guidance as

Thanks for your guidance as always Pailin. A very good reminder.

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 8:05am
Big Buffalo
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XAG

Just sold a bunch at 31.070, looking for a drop at 8:30 am to pick them back up.

Edit: XAG R3 level official hit at $31.182

Ba-zinga!
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 8:33am
rtabit
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SI

Hitting possible resistance (about 31.31) from that trendline that I think Stawboss pointed out a couple weeks ago.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/762e781...

EDIT: Trying to break through now, let's see if can be support.

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 8:47am (Reply to #31344)
kevsta
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pailin wrote: All markets

pailin wrote:

All markets presently making total asses out of fiscal cliff tax sellers. That's efficiency for ya :)

that's market-maker action for ya in fact.. :) 

Happy New Year all, and the most sincere new year's gift I can give to the PTC crew is to plead with you to watch these guys videos until the penny drops. We all know the markets are manipulated, but when you understand why, how and where its going to be, and the candles confirm it, you just hop on.

Is the Forex Market manipulated?

The Stop Run Reversal

Its no exaggeration to say that in the last 8 weeks this has completely turned my trading around, this was the extra "edge" I needed, after a year's trading experience and education from other places, including Alessio's mentors.

It basically just makes a mockery out of TA once you realize how and why they work around it, trendlines, resistance, support mas etc to trap volume in the opposite direction to where theyre going. 

it has just been too ridiculously easy to take 50 or 70 pips out of GBPUSD / EURUSD / GBPJPY with a 20 pip max stop, by 11am (UK time) 3 or 4 times a week, and again in the US session sometimes too, that I cant even be bothered to trade Gold / Silver any more. (stacked & permanently long anyway) 

once it clicks and the patterns become clear, then you see them everywhere, although gold is clearer than silver at the moment. seriously, if this doesn't help your day trading whatever you're doing, I'll eat Turd's hat, because it is a whole different ballgame once you know with a reasonable degree of certainty which direction its going to run next.

Im not affiliated with them in anyway, I did join up just before Xmas because after 12 weeks watching the free stuff on the outside I was so grateful for the new perspective they'd given me that they deserved payment, but everything you need is on the outside for free if you watch all the vids. 

also totally agree with Rico, shut everything else off, TV, news, all of it. 

good luck in 2013 to everybody..

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..
Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 8:47am
Rico
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Poor Zerohedge--another year

Poor Zerohedge--another year gone by without the world ending...Tyler's hope (hype) springs eternal, though--never a bear market in pessimism.

@Blackhawk,

Today is why I keep the UCO pot simmering--although the glop is getting a bit bubbly, and starting to get the stove dirty...

Wed, Jan 2, 2013 - 8:52am (Reply to #31344)
kevsta
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pailin wrote:All markets

dammit double tapped again sorry

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."
The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..

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