Breeders cup 2016 um Craig

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Ruffian
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Breeders cup 2016 um Craig

this unlike the past several years is an amazing card. One of the best ever and there is already mad money in the pools and just about everyone is vulnerable ... 

Startin with the classic. California chrome on a six race win streak is training like a monster. Last time I saw a horse and it was on tape look this good was secretariat. However, CC is 5 yr old and I suspect that it's stallion weight turned into pure muscle. Also he's pumped but I think he's studdy. It's been ages since we have seen a TB stallion his age racing. He's got arrow gate to contend with who set figures chrome never touched at Saratoga and Santa Anita is not as fast as oils surface but it's like ice compared to Saratoga surface. Only he has 1 post and he has to blast out of there and he's a slower starter. If he does chrome is in trouble cuz he hates being on the rail and could get trapped with so much speed outside. If he goes with arrogate from go it sets things up nicely for frosted and melatonin and keen ice too. Who is back in form. 

The distaff- all I can say is WOW what a field too. Mike smith on top of songbird the 3 yr old is talking smack. I've know him for 15 yrs and he's never done that even on zenyatta. Three eclipse winners in one race??? 

Found is a super filly but Adrian obrien is off his rocker. He does this sometimes. She just won the arc most difficult race in the world and he enters her twice in 4 weeks after. She clearly is the best but she's tired and it shows. 

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Same race : highland reel and flintshire are in there too but all three of them have been knocking heads with EU group ones and are tired. That leaves ectot and ashleeluvssugar ripe to upset both are fresh!!!! 

Filly and mare turf is packed with champs too. She won't be the chalk but I think lady Eli if her feet don't bother her is sitting on a huge race. Her work partner sea calisi is capable as well.... Both will be at a price as the foreign horses are tough but no overlays on them. 

Runhappy last year BC sprint winner is in the dirt mile. He's an incredible horse but his connections have him so efff up. He's one of the fastest ever and he's turned in dull workouts and wouldn't even break off from his lead pony a few days ago. This is so painful to see his owner drama effecting him but it has and even a horse like him can't overcome his asshole owner and trainer... Dortmund looks like the only play in here. It's his to lose.... 

The rest of the races are pretty darned good too and the foreign contingent is strong as ever. 

Lord. Nelson late scratch from the sprint to be retired. That leaves a wide open field and a great tote ... Don't leave out defrong from exotics and gimmicks and a heavy win ticket if he goes at a price. 

Back to classic for a minute - arrow gate could be a super horse.  But he's a unbridled song like the tragic eight belles. Very, very unsound bloodline.  Unraced at two and lightly late raced this year at three... I'm gonna guess sore shins but he's been rested for 10 weeks and should be fit. Same with frosted ... 

The old guys say never been this deep a field since the inaugural travers .. Unlike last year where American Pharoah had a cakewalk over a gutted class.  

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And of course

I can't stop without my yearly I despise bob baffert rant and American Pharoah is the most overrated crown winner - ever. Keep in mind no derby horse, let alone crown winner took 36 blows to pass a horse.  He's scum and so are all of his clients. Klimt owned kalem shah with his red white and blue racing silks  also owns Dortmund. He loves America cuz his company is a paid spy on Americans like NSA. He loves us so much he got caught robbing us 18 million he paid back and still got to keep his govt contract. 

I always love the ponies but never most of the top people in the game! Also materiality the horse that was barely raced and sent to challenge American Pharoah to make it look like he had been pressed was euthanized a few months back. It's been all too easy to gear down.

The stories I could tell if only.....

this one i will. Run happy is an industry favorite... Cuz he does nothing but lay down all day until his rider shows up with tack. He hit the track running and no one  could faster than him. The minute he got back to his stall he was right back to sleep. Now everyone is scared to death he's gonna breakdown or run off ... I'm one of them 

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Sorry

The distaff lived up to all the hype. Beholder got the hat trick. She was much stronger than the by a whisker win photo looks ....

i saw corona del inca go down. They had to blindfold her to get her in the gate... That wasn't her way ... And now she is gone. Hindsight is 20/20 but she obviously didn't want to go and her jock kept riding her .... 

A classic duel that will forever be marred by this tragedy. 

Run happy faltered badly but as far as I know he's ok! 

I just don't feel like talking right now 

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The Classic 2016

yesterdays distaff should have been run on today's card as it wa and is by far the best field and it deserved the highest attention but it's in the books.... 

So as always the premier race the classic is the highlight. California chrome is and deservedly the chalk (the favorite). However, my job is to find the horses who can beat the chalk. Arrowgate is the obvious 2nd choice but he's going to get pounded as well too. Plus he's a three year old going up against older more experienced. 

Frosted is no chump but he's been brilliant and dull and unreliable .... Which leaves me very comfortable picking melatonin as my upset pick. Naturally everyone wants to see California chrome win as this is either his last or next to last start. In January their is a new 12 million dollar race you don't earn your way into- you pay a million and your in.  The lure for chrome is great as he has so many negatives as a sire. He's already the fist to win 10 million in one year and a win there would cover the new owners investment if he fails in the shed row. 

Melatonin is a small horse but he has major speed that he can carry. He's a bit unknown as he was away fighting a life threatening sickness for quite awhile. But he's back and I've watched him working and he has the naturally ability to beat both chrome and arrogate. Found defected to the turf as Adrian obrien came to his senses to take his champ back on turf. 

The tote will dictate any exotics i play. Then again, I might just watch. I'll be happy to see chrome win but I'll be pissed if melatonin does and I didn't play. 

Bob baffert and his long time go to rider Martin Garcia and previous regular rider has a huge blow up and he's been off baffert horses for awhile, but bob found himself in a pickle and had to call Martin. I'd have loved to have been there after Martin cooked Dortmund in the mile yesterday. If so much money hadn't been in the line. I would venture to say Martin did it on purpose. 

Last minute scratch in classic of shamans ghost.. I think he has a fever. 

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Final thoughts

lady eli lost by the tiniest of margins .... 

I was damned wrong about EU contingent. They weren't that tired. But ecots jockey I could smack in the head. He choked his horse down for 1/4 mile. I shoulda known better as they were all by or out Galileo ... The same sire of my fav mare mama two. They never quit. 

Santa Anita had the dirt slowed and turf like lightening .... Oh boy did that eff everyone.

lastly victor Espinoza lost to a better horse and superior jock.  CC has never gone as fast as arrow gate so instead of opening up on him. He keeps turning around instead of riding him. CC didn't run out of gas he got beat by a faster horse in the last ten feet. I guess victor forgot his horse was anything but fresh. I feel bad for his trainer to lose like that ... But ya gotta take the losses like the wins. 

My upset pick just gave up. I have no idea why just yet. 

It makes me sick baffert is teamed up with godolphin it's the Saudis sheiks stable just FYI. 

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Ruff.........................

Thanks for the insights, always great to hear a pro share their passion/expetise!! 

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THX BN

I really was/am more a breeder and pinhooker. 

Edit: I didn't win or lose. Today I was a fan only. 

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