Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 4:06pm (Reply to #24788)
rtabit
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pailin wrote: Not new charts.

pailin wrote:

Not new charts. Pulled from Chrome instead of Firefox. Got a nasty case of BABYLON (it's evil) throughout my system, really effed up FF and have been doing all sorts of purges since last night. Might finally be free now :)

I've never had or dealt with babylon, but you'll never know if it's gone, general virus observation, not specific to babylon. Best thing to do would be reformat, but I guess that depends on how much software you have installed and how motivated you are about reinstalling it. If you upgrade operating systems I think they have a reformat option, that may be better, I think MS will carry applications over to new install, I know they carry files over if you want, PM me if you have a PC and want a newer version of windows (assuming you don't have 7 or for some reason want 8 or whatever that new tablet OS is called) I may be able to get you one.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 5:38pm
SilverWealth
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Alessio

Regarding support in Silver the more times a 'support' gets retested IN A DOWNTREND the more ominous. Always depends on the context. If Silver was roaring away in a bull, different story. Look at it this way. The bounces are all failing. The bounces have not been able to summon any rally.

Look at Silver on the chart. ITs trading along with GDX and Gld below its 21 day, a first requirement imo for some show of wood. And look at the volume. If Silver was of interest to traders you would see roiling volume bars at this bottom. No volume. No interest.

I can't say for sure but I think if the low is spiked out we will see 25.23 quickly, then maybe a good bounce or maybe just a strong lmove dowwn to 22.

The Silver chart is telling me Deflation. The inflationists like Rhino Horn would have people thinking QE and cost push all the time but that is the wrong perspective now in the Market and it has been for some time. For this round Armstrong is kicking Sinclair's ass. This may change at any time but I have to give credit where it is due.

Maybe price is completely managed here and now that OE is done we get a rocket bounce based in forensics. But trading forensics is like trading on hope and supposition. It can lead to trouble and is never objective. Who knows?

my donuts are down today for no reason and I am pissed off. Back to the drawing board.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 5:50pm
SilverWealth
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silver demand

the main page is still featuring posts on tremendous physical demand in Silver,etc. Also expectations are being adjusted downward and now 22 is being quietly discussed as 'a brief possibility'. This is characteristic of the latter stages of denial.

when Silver was trading at 37 and 32 not too long ago, anyone who would have whispered anything about a number like 22 would have been key-holed and hung up to dry.

in a deflationary enviroment any number is possible, forensices or no forensics, JPM or no JPM. And today JPM rallied of all things.

Wake me up when the revolution happens. Until then my money is on the crooks pulling another one right out of their asses.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 6:08pm
Vypuero
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right now

I am positioned to do well if everything sells off and the dollar goes up. That is what I see, but the market is trying to stay up anyway. It has no conviction, or I would be happy to change my mind. To me, it all looks very bearish.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 6:35pm
pailin
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Far OTM future :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:26pm
redwood
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http://www.bloomberg.com/vide

https://www.bloomberg.com/video/soros-bashes-merkel-oil-down-lunch-money...

Nice slip by JPM guy toward the end of the tape, when asked what sectors are currently favorable. He starts off by saying tech sector, then says "commodities" and backs off immediately.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 10:23pm
Gold Nugget
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Jack Schwager FREE

Jack is interviewed by Larry Connors. I think Larry is real good. He has the former head of trading from Fidelity working for him as far as I know. He seems to have lots of respect from the big whales. Anyway I just received the following email from Larry Connors company about the interview. I missed it. Now I am sure he would invite everyone to watch it. I include the salesman who wrote to me as he deserves some credit. I have never talked to the saleman so no comment from me. here is the email copy and pasted. the link turned into youtube. that is larry on the left so i suppose that is jack on the right. you can get the link from youtube. 

Dear Trader, In case you missed Larry Connors Live Interview with "Market Wizard" Jack Schwager on 6/22/2012 at 1:30 PM ET you can access the recording using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx9Q-ni9C-A Thank you for your interest in Larry Connors Live Interview with "Market Wizard" Jack Schwager*.* If you have any questions, you email me at dtorres[at]connorsresearch[dot]com. Regards, Danilo Torres Operations Connors Research LLC 10 Exchange Place Suite 1800 Jersey City, NJ 07302 (direct) 973-494-7333 (fax) 201-433-0060
‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 12:04am (Reply to #24798)
Gold Nugget
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uki wrote: I am a lurker to

uki wrote:

I am a lurker to this great topic most of the time, but thought it might be interesting to share such an observation and ask the following question:

don't you think that the PM sentiment indicator at least measured on this tread (however accurate it may be) got somehow ultra-bearish (i.e., most of you are sure silver is going to break down the 26s support lines) and if so, does this mean that the change of the downward trend is to be expected any time soon? 

NO

I do not think so. In fact I try to NOT THINK at all. 

The problem is THINKING & Analyzing. Both give False answers.

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 12:12am
Art Lomax
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Corn / Protein Gold

I'm a little late with this comment, sorry, just now catching up on the blog after a long day. This move in corn has been fast, over a $1 four days. I wasn't smart enough to catch it, but made a few quick trades in and out that turned out OK.

Like DE said, the crop report Friday is huge, and there was profit taking ahead of the report today. I do not like to carry a big position into a crop report, USDA has thrown the market some curves lately. But even if we get a bearish report, say more acres, and they find more stocks, I think eventually weather still controls the market. 

Like Rico said, the forecast is hot and dry, chances of rain in the northern corn belt, but the trend is more heat, and we are still in June days. Even with profit taking today, I don't think traders are ready to go short the market, just banking some profit before the report. Downside risk probably 6.10 to 6.00 Dec. If July is a scorcher, I think this market goes higher. So staying long into the report is probably an OK risk. Market probably takes a breather tomorrow before the report.

Trying to call a top in a weather market will be difficult. Just pull down some profit when you can, and be ready to short it. More money to be made going down. 

PS.. I think beans can make a move up if July weather stays hot and dry. World depending on US crop to make up for the poor SA crop. Price will have to ration supply if yields are threatened.

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 12:39am
rtabit
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ES

Got stopped out of last ES trade so trying again, in 1327 stop 1330.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/8394d2e2-cc58-41ac-a4bd-eeb2eb5ce281

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 2:37am
Pete
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Gold 6/27

Looking better.

[IMG]https://i48.tinypic.com/y010w.png[/IMG]

BTW, the continuation gold chart does not show this correction to be in the form of a horizontal triangle. Silver is a different story. At this point gold is more like a descending wedge (first 4 swing extremes).

What is more important for me is that both gold and silver have corrected to within the 4th wave of the previous extended fifth, and have not closed below in either case. For silver, that low is 26.30. Not closing below is a sign of strength.

In Elliott Wave Principle there is discussion about retracements of extended waves--which they were in gold and silver-- and that they are "always" retraced twice. In other words, after retracing back down to the start of the extension (first retracement), price will go back up to the start of the correction (the second "retracement"). From there, final top is made (such as an irregular B wave top), or price keeps on going.

Price has retraced in both to within the prior 4th wave (and could some more). The second "retracement" awaits.

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 4:44am
Ssgtrader
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Is Silver Set to Go Sub-$10 Again?

June 25, 2012 5:50 am EDT

Is Silver Set to Go Sub-$10 Again?

By Abigail F. Doolittle

Enough attention was paid to the chart of gold last week with its confirmed Double Top highlighted in the context of what appears to be a Descending Triangle that confirms near $1,524 for a target of $1,136 per ounce and so let’s look at what’s happening in silver, but before turning to that very bearish chart, let’s take a quick look at gold through GLD.


GLD’s Double Top remains confirmed below $153 for a target of $147 and it is supported by April’s Death Cross along with that Descending Triangle – and a massively bearish pattern – that confirms at $148 for a target of $110. Maybe GLD defies its Double Top to move up toward the top trendline representing GLD’s true downtrend near $164, but more likely is GLD trading between $148 and $156 for a few weeks before fulfilling the Double Top to confirm the Descending Triangle to the downside with the unlikely upside scenario worth dissecting only if it becomes more relevant.

Turning now to silver, its chart is similar to gold over the long-term but differs slightly in the near-term.

 
What is similar in silver to gold is the long-term Descending Trend Channel that was not highlighted in the chart of GLD for its Descending Triangle, but it is this technical aspect in gold and silver that is most worth weighing at this point and that is a year-long downtrend that is trying to reverse the long-term uptrend in both gold and silver.

Before turning to the Descending Triangle nestled in silver’s Descending Trend Channel, let’s treat what could have been a Double Bottom or a bearishly-oriented Symmetrical Triangle just last Wednesday with the latter winning out on Thursday and Friday on confirmation of $26.75 per ounce for a target of $21.85 per ounce.

It was that possible Double Bottom along with the true top trendline of the Descending Trend Channel in gold and silver that had caused me to believe there was a shot that gold might trade close to its 150 DMA at $1,657 per ounce and silver to some level between $31 and $32 per ounce but that near-term bullish possibility was never achieved ahead of the FOMC meeting and is unlikely to be achieved until the QE3-Dreams become strong enough again. Perhaps this does happen in Q3 with this being a typically strong “season” for the precious metals, but this recent and failed attempt to rise to the trendline marking the respective downtrends in each does not support it.

This failure by silver, of course, puts the focus on that massive Descending Triangle that confirms at $26.13 per ounce for a target so low it is not worth mentioning outside of saying silver may slide sub-$10 per ounce and a level last seen in 2008.

Let’s take a look at how silver’s unbelievably bearish look translates to SLV and its bearish Symmetrical Triangle will confirm below $25.99 for a target of $21.54.



Relative to that hugely bearish Descending Triangle that shows nicely in SLV’s weekly chart above, it confirms at $25.65 for a seemingly absurd target that is sub-$10 and a level not seen since 2008.

Interestingly, SLV’s full weekly chart and one that is not shown here raises some hope that it might defy that truly bearish feat to rise superbly higher, but this possibility is not showing in the chart of silver, GLD or gold and so unless it becomes more of a possibility and one that requires SLV to take out $36.44 and silver to rise above $37.55 per ounce, it makes little sense to treat it too seriously.

Somewhat unbelievably, though, it does make sense to think that silver may go sub-$10 again.

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 6:35am
Titus Andronicus
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More Armstrong stuff

Sorry to post more on this topic, but I just read an article about silver that Martin Armstrong wrote over a year ago just after the May silver crash. Here it is:

https://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Silver%20Crash%20of%202011%2...

Reading this, I have to say that the calm correctness of his statement that support was at $28 and the $23.5/$26.5 area is amazing to me. And he talks about needing to hold $28 by the year end (which it seems to me it did by the skin of the teeth).

The accuracy of his general take on the silver market sure turned out to be a big cut above anything I ever heard or read on KWN. I wish read this a year ago.

Another thing is that he clearly states that silver is the "most manipulated precious metal". It sure seems to me that many people are taking his statements about manipulation out of context if they interpret him to be saying that there is no manipulation.

And frankly, the venom that I have read against him in the last few days is shocking to me. Why would people react so violently to someone expressing a viewpoint? Disagreeing with him is one thing, but calling him names is something different. I understand that the guy has a lot of influence because a lot of people listen to him, but is his view about potential future realities so dangerous that he cannot express his opinion without being evil?

It makes me wonder what would happen to TRX if Martin Armstrong turns out to be right.

There's definitely a lot I don't know about the guy. I mean, I just found this article now. So I can't really speak as some kind of expert on him and his work.

Personally, I hope that Armstrong is right in the sense that Sinclair's view of the future doesn't give me any more time to prepare as well as I would like -- I sure as hell want to continue to be able to trade. Armstrong seems to think we have more time. This is just my hope. I guess that they are both going to be right eventually in different degrees.

(Please let's not turn this into a flame war of some kind. I'm just posting some stuff that is very interesting to me and I thought it would be interesting to others. If this turns into arguments about Armstrong, I'd be happy to move it to another forum.)

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 7:32am
Rico
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@ssgtrader, The problem with

@ssgtrader,

The problem with Doolittle is that she is 100%, certified, mumbo-jumbo. Do you understand what she is "saying"? I don't, and I don't see the "targets" on her charts. Not saying she's wrong--just that I can't follow her reasoning. She is a sexy little minx, though...

@Titus

Don't apologize! I think MA is extraordinarily insightful. It's human nature to kill the messenger, especially for the true believers.

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 8:06am
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

Daily XAU/USD
High 1584.04
Low  1562.64
Close 1574.09
R3 1605.94
R2 1594.99
R1 1584.54
Pivot 1573.59
S1 1563.14
S2 1552.19
S3 1541.74
Weekly XAU/USD
High 1633.54
Low  1558.13
Close 1572.46
R3 1693.36
R2 1663.45
R1 1617.95
Pivot 1588.04
S1 1542.54
S2 1512.63
S3 1467.13
Monthly XAU/USD
High 1671.95
Low  1526.88
Close 1560.16
R3 1790.85
R2 1731.40
R1 1645.78
Pivot 1586.33
S1 1500.71
S2 1441.26
S3 1355.64
Daily XAG/USD
High 27.369
Low  26.669
Close 26.900
R3 27.989
R2 27.679
R1 27.289
Pivot 26.979
S1 26.589
S2 26.279
S3 25.889
Weekly XAG/USD
High 28.983
Low  26.583
Close 26.894
R3 30.791
R2 29.887
R1 28.391
Pivot 27.487
S1 25.991
S2 25.087
S3 23.591
Monthly XAG/USD
High 31.330
Low  26.753
Close 27.695
R3 35.010
R2 33.170
R1 30.433
Pivot 28.593
S1 25.856
S2 24.016
S3 21.279
Daily EUR/USD
High 1.25092
Low  1.24450
Close 1.24683
R3 1.25676
R2 1.25384
R1 1.25034
Pivot 1.24742
S1 1.24392
S2 1.24100
S3 1.23750
Weekly EUR/USD
High 1.27488
Low  1.25187
Close 1.25696
R3 1.29362
R2 1.28425
R1 1.27061
Pivot 1.26124
S1 1.24760
S2 1.23823
S3 1.22459
Monthly EUR/USD
High 1.32846
Low  1.23358
Close 1.23647
R3 1.39364
R2 1.36105
R1 1.29876
Pivot 1.26617
S1 1.20388
S2 1.17129
S3 1.10900
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 8:29am
pailin
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re: Sinclair vs Armstrong

The basic issue here, which I first remember seeing come up last spring somewhere on JSMineset, is that Sinclair stated that gold volatility is such that it's now untradeable (and unchartable) and needs to be held for the big End. Which is right around the bend (per JS). JS kinda painted himself into a corner with the absolutism angle. So now he either needs to man up and say "I was wrong" or just keep repeating the mantra (and defend it against heathens as well) in perpetuity. Giving up flexibility is a big problem. The KWN crew has lost many many fans the last 14 months because of this mistake. And geez KWN stuff is interesting and broadly helpful as long as you listen with a brain and not only religious fervor :)

Unlike Rico (et al) I'm not convinced that the only path is years and years of worldwide Japan-style stagflation while this giant mess is worked off. Apologies to Rico if I've misunderstood your position! I think it's one potential direction, but man what happens if "somebody" detonates a suitcase (or underwear??) nuke in ANY major western city? And there are hundreds of other reasonable enough "what ifs" I could come up with too that would shake up the long-grind paradigm. So there's that.

And then there's TEOTWAWKI. Means different things to different people. Was just hanging out with some folks from Bangladesh. Came from the dirt but have managed to integrate nicely enough into western living standards to have nearly forgotten what the dirt was like. I jogged their memory :) by asking what "dirt" is like. And from what I gathered, at least half of the world couldn't give a fig about "us" and "our problems" and our TEOTWAWKI isn't theirs at all. It's actually their TWAWKI. These peoples, entire cultures, are born, live, and die in so-called Third World ways (according to us :) but for them it's just life and it's not such a big deal. You don't know what you don't have if you've never had it! TEOTWAWKI isn't necessarily THE END, just different. So there's that too. And everything in between...like "managed failures" (of just your bank, your trading firm, your government, etc.)

@Titus - paraphrasing from a million preppers here...get yourself reasonably ready! You can't plan for everything but you sure can plan for a lot. What are you afraid of losing? Make a list and protect those things! And still trade while Rome is burning :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 8:36am
pailin
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Turd's Forensics

I think Turd identified a great pattern yesterday - that of silver First Day Notice being an interim peak followed by long pain. And short gain :)

At some point tomorrow, assuming 27+, I will put on a decent short and maintain for a while (test/fail/breakthrough 26 with stop 30).

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 8:43am
Rico
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@Pailin, Your remarks are

@Pailin,

Your remarks are very timely--just last night, I was talking to a relative about my POV, and specifically mentioned that it is all moot in the event of a Black Swan, such as an improvised nuke!

Also liked the reminder about how large swaths of humanity view life, and us.

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 9:28am (Reply to #24827)
D E
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Corn Pattern?

Just scored some dec cotton @67.46 to ride into manana's report...might buy more below 68 to trade today...limits are 64.96--70.96 today...bid/ask spreads pretty wild here, with 10--30 tick difference the norm, but market lends itself to lowball bids and high offers...put 'em in and hope to get hits the right way (market orders can be very dicey though)...platinum getting hammered down pretty well...oct pl looks like it could break 1400 today, a pretty big level...kinda trades like silver, but more leverage than silver or gold (BE CAREFUL)...no position here, but watching...PMs look ugly on the charts still from last MayDay, and might keep breaking through the 2008 trend lines...bulls seem to be fighting the powers that be...read following for a perspective on corn that I hadn't seen before and am trying to post...

Corn Peak in 1988 Drought Hints Rally May End: Chart of the Day

2012-06-28 05:00:00.1 GMT


By Jeff Wilson
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- The June surge in corn prices,
triggered by a U.S. Midwest drought that has left crops in the
worst shape since 1988, may end soon if a similar weather event
25 years ago is any guide, AgriVisor LLC said.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows that this month’s rally is
tracking futures in 1988, when the price topped out on June 27.
In the past 10 years, corn for December delivery reached a peak
on June 13, on average. During the biggest summer rally in 2008,
the grain reached the closing high for the year on June 26.
“The timing of the peak in 1988 and this year may be
similar because drought-scare rallies usually peak before the
crop conditions stop falling,” said Dale Durchholz, the senior
market analyst at AgriVisor, an agriculture-research firm in
Bloomington, Illinois. “Grain markets usually peak early in
supply-side rallies because demand slows.”
This month, corn futures for December delivery have surged
21 percent, heading for a contract record. Fifty-six percent of
the crop was in good to excellent condition as of June 24, the
lowest for this point in the season since 1988, when only 21
percent got the top rating, government data showed. Rainfall in
Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, three of the top five producing
states, was 7 inches (18 centimeters) below normal from April to
June in 1988, compared with a deficit of 3 inches this year,
according to T-Storm Weather LLC in Chicago. Temperatures were
also warmer.
“People have forgotten how bad the crop was in 1988,”
when yields fell 29 percent from 1987, Durchholz said. “The
market has already priced in a big drop in yields this year.
Conditions continued to decline in July 1988 after the peak in
prices.”
Almost three-quarters of investors will hold back from
bets on higher commodities in the next 12 months, according to a
survey of investors by Credit Suisse Group AG. Total open
interest in corn on the Chicago Board of Trade has dropped to
the lowest since January 2010. “We do not have robust world
growth” in the economy to support higher grain prices,
Durchholz said.

Thu, Jun 28, 2012 - 9:41am
pailin
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@Rico

Sorry bro, didn't mean to misrepresent you...just seemed very one-way-only as you presented here. But of course you're smarter than that!!

Silver looks like it wants to find out how soft 26 floor is very soon...like before lunch. I'm kinda excited to see what happens there, even though my present tiny long (and core) would suffer.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey

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