Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:25am (Reply to #24786)
csquared13
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Rico wrote: Like the new

Rico wrote:

Like the new look, Mr. P!cool

S.W., nice video. Silver? Toast! Corn? Solid gold, baby!

Wish someone had a soundbyte of that Florida Trader guy, "It's toast, bring out the jelly." I just about spat my coffee at my monitor when I saw that video hahah. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:29am (Reply to #24789)
redwood
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Actually once again because

Actually once again because its a day by day play now, this is what I was expecting. But it was just a good guess based on the metals being taken down so thoroughly yesterday. Yeah, yesterday was O/E. Tomorrow it'll be something else. Volatility is the order of the day.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:30am
pailin
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Aside from every new day

Aside from every new day being opposite the previous day, anyone know why the juice just got turned on?

EDIT - and there goes R3 silver again :)

Be wary --- every up thru R3 silver since 02/29 has preceded a very nice spike down same day or next.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:35am
hhesse
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mortgage money to invest with-- possible future principal reduct

thanks to everyone that commented on my "do you mortgage the house and use the fiat to buy gold/pay back in cheaper dollar question "

I was also thinking about jubilee type scenarios as an additional possible windfall. this would not be a primary reason to do it.

Its said that we "need to destroy debt in the future" -- i for one would like to participate! therefore have some debt of the type most likely to be forgiven (RE)

long shot yes. if we get there, i predict it will not punish the solvent and will be across the board.

this is certainly NOT the case currently as the following link describes banks rare consideration of principal reduction

https://www.stayinmyhome.com/blog/2012/06/my-conversation-with-a-banker/

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:51am
Pete
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Gold AM 6/27

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 11:18am
SilverWealth
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comment

Regardless of forensics or all manner of this and that both metals continue in a downtrend. Miners in downtrend.

Silver breaks 26.50 and it targets 25.23. Then its a game of when the short covering comes in if it does, who knows?

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 11:39am
redwood
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A comment regarding Alessio's

A comment regarding Alessio's presentation which is well done. He claims that the more times silver hits the bottom which on his chart was 5 times, the greater likelihood that the bottom will be penetrated. I'm not sure how accurate that statement is. One can also argue that one reaches a point of diminishing returns as the impulse to penetrate reaches a point of exhaustion. According to him we have not yet crossed the line. We'll see.

Also gold is holding up better, so one has to decide which metal in fact is taking the lead. That also changes regularly.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 11:47am
Rico
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Alessio's point is generally

Alessio's point is generally accurate--doesn't mean it will happen this time. The same effect happens at resistance.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 12:03pm
uki
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PM sentiment?

I am a lurker to this great topic most of the time, but thought it might be interesting to share such an observation and ask the following question:

don't you think that the PM sentiment indicator at least measured on this tread (however accurate it may be) got somehow ultra-bearish (i.e., most of you are sure silver is going to break down the 26s support lines) and if so, does this mean that the change of the downward trend is to be expected any time soon? 

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 1:04pm
BlackHawk
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Sell CORN?

Rico and Art and D E -

When shall we sell our CORN?

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 1:25pm
Rico
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You guys are the experts, I'm

You guys are the experts, I'm just an opportunistic speculator trying to make a buck--but, unless I hear different here, shouldn't we gamble on the bad conditions persisting? It's not that long to wait, and if the crop really does take a hit, it'll be Katie bar the door...

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 1:40pm (Reply to #24788)
Gold Nugget
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pailin wrote: Not new charts.

pailin wrote:

Not new charts. Pulled from Chrome instead of Firefox. Got a nasty case of BABYLON (it's evil) throughout my system, really effed up FF and have been doing all sorts of purges since last night. Might finally be free now :)

I found Babylon IMPOSSIBLE to get rid of. it has spots all over the place. although it can be held in check to a few items that are not so important. the clean way is to start over. My system crashed and I got a new hard disk. That solved that problem but lost everything else in the mess. Whatever you do. Do NOT back up Babylon. 

Babylon is the DEVIL. I would get rid of it and it would pop back up later. drove me nuts. then I am not far away from nut creek. 

‘Nine times out of ten when I see an attractive woman walking down the street, I turn and take another look. Ten times out of ten she does not turn around to check me out.’
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 1:41pm (Reply to #24800)
BlackHawk
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Rico I have to agree

with your logic, it's just that I so seldom have any real profit positions sitting around in my account anymore, I thought about taking the profit off the table. If a guy (Art)thought there might be a down move anytime soon, I wouldn't mind making the money and then get back in. Maybe it will be a straight shot to the moon. It's burning up around here. I just kind of wanted to gauge local sentiment. Sugar and POT are all starting to move some. Maybe the the deflationary trend is over <max sarc>.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 1:56pm (Reply to #24799)
D E
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Yikes!

Flattered yet frightened one would ask, but I'm flat now...BIG reports coming out Friday 8:30 am nytime...annual acreage report & quarterly grain stocks report...had a HUGE run up this week...even in futures,market closes for 3 hours, from 3 to 6 pm nytime...stock market will not be open when report hits...futures market will be open then (new this time) ...tough to hedge gains...lastly, weather can change, quickly...just my opinion, but I'm on the sidelines in corn till post report...cotton looks better on long side below 68, but has report risk as well...

GLTA

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 1:58pm
Rico
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Blackhawk

I hear ya--that's always the dilemma. Personally, I feel very directional with this one (vs. hedgy), so I'm willing to ride the rollercoaster, even add on weakness, as long as the weather story doesn't change. If we get rain, I might get killed.

If it was easy, anybody could do it.cool

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 2:05pm
Titus Andronicus
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Wacky Wednesday

Man, from a repeating pattern point of view, Wednesday sure can be a whack job. Maybe it's just that time of the month (OE).

I didn't trade so far today, but I did just open a short position in gold. Not sure how long I hold it. Maybe until this evening or maybe until tomorrow morning.

I figure there is not too much upside risk at $1578, making a favorable risk/reward from here.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 3:17pm
rtabit
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NG 20

Looks like nice bounce off lower medium line, that line is about 2.73.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/NG/media/fa21ee76-2849-4047-89d8-df9dadb1a8c8

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 3:25pm
rtabit
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SI 20

Good touch as resistance, looks like maybe higher low, if so I like its chances of breaking through that resistance around 27.20.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/c3238450-59b0-460c-906d-7eb73131da4b

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 3:51pm (Reply to #24796)
rtabit
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redwood wrote: A comment

redwood wrote:

A comment regarding Alessio's presentation which is well done. He claims that the more times silver hits the bottom which on his chart was 5 times, the greater likelihood that the bottom will be penetrated. I'm not sure how accurate that statement is.

I wondered the exact same thing, almost posted same question. The way I figure it, the more times it bounces off support the greater it increases the chances that the next hit on support will also bounce. But if you're repeatedly hitting support, it will eventually wash out the percentage increase you gained from bouncing off previous times.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 4:00pm (Reply to #24808)
pailin
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rtabit wrote: redwood

rtabit wrote:
redwood wrote:

A comment regarding Alessio's presentation which is well done. He claims that the more times silver hits the bottom which on his chart was 5 times, the greater likelihood that the bottom will be penetrated. I'm not sure how accurate that statement is.

I wondered the exact same thing, almost posted same question. The way I figure it, the more times it bounces off support the greater it increases the chances that the next hit on support will also bounce. But if you're repeatedly hitting support, it will eventually wash out the percentage increase you gained from bouncing off previous times.

I think the big difference between multiple strikes to support vs resistance is that support has a known end point (zero) while resistance has an unknown end point (infinity). In other words the shorts will tend to chicken out long before permabulls when facing the same type of "test" :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey

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