Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 7:08am
pailin
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@Titus

Thanks for sharing the Armstrong link, I'll have fun diggin in there. The 8.6 year cycle is no mystery to me, as I've been laid off from various financial services firms every...8 years. Being a student of the markets early on, I sort of expected this going in. This labor expansion/contraction was so consistent that around year 6 (since the previous layoff) I would actively shift from spend as you go (enjoy life) to defensive hunker down and extreme savings (not enjoy life) until re-employed. It was a pet theory that paid off three times post-1987. Nice feeling to be laid off and sleep well at night knowing the money was already in the bank.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 9:01am
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

Daily XAU/USD
High 1588.72
Low 1566.18
Close 1584.21
R3 1615.76
R2 1602.24
R1 1593.22
Pivot 1579.70
S1 1570.68
S2 1557.16
S3 1548.14
Weekly XAU/USD
High 1633.54
Low 1558.13
Close 1572.46
R3 1693.36
R2 1663.45
R1 1617.95
Pivot 1588.04
S1 1542.54
S2 1512.63
S3 1467.13
Monthly XAU/USD
High 1671.95
Low 1526.88
Close 1560.16
R3 1790.85
R2 1731.40
R1 1645.78
Pivot 1586.33
S1 1500.71
S2 1441.26
S3 1355.64
Daily XAG/USD
High 27.669
Low 26.642
Close 27.513
R3 28.935
R2 28.302
R1 27.908
Pivot 27.275
S1 26.881
S2 26.248
S3 25.854
Weekly XAG/USD
High 28.983
Low 26.583
Close 26.894
R3 30.791
R2 29.887
R1 28.391
Pivot 27.487
S1 25.991
S2 25.087
S3 23.591
Monthly XAG/USD
High 31.330
Low 26.753
Close 27.695
R3 35.010
R2 33.170
R1 30.433
Pivot 28.593
S1 25.856
S2 24.016
S3 21.279
Daily EUR/USD
High 1.25595
Low 1.24705
Close 1.25031
R3 1.26405
R2 1.26000
R1 1.25515
Pivot 1.25110
S1 1.24625
S2 1.24220
S3 1.23735
Weekly EUR/USD
High 1.27488
Low 1.25187
Close 1.25696
R3 1.29362
R2 1.28425
R1 1.27061
Pivot 1.26124
S1 1.24760
S2 1.23823
S3 1.22459
Monthly EUR/USD
High 1.32846
Low 1.23358
Close 1.23647
R3 1.39364
R2 1.36105
R1 1.29876
Pivot 1.26617
S1 1.20388
S2 1.17129
S3 1.10900
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 9:11am (Reply to #24766)
Rico
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Titus Andronicus wrote: Man,

Titus Andronicus wrote:

Man, I had no idea of the past between Armstrong and GATA.

Here's a collection of articles about Armstrong. Very interesting reading. A lot of stuff I had no idea about.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/14268839/8-Point-6

Yeah, Armstrong is also the seventh son of a seventh son, and battled Sinclair in the 5th Dimension, before Space and Time...

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 10:17am
Gold1776
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Thanks for Posting Armstrong Stuff

Thanks for posting the Armstrong stuff. I was actually reading one of Armstrong's post last night - partly because I read the post that Titus posted from Sinclair.

I agree - I think they both make a lot of sense - it sure feels as though Armstrong is a little bit more on than Sinclair at this point in time.

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 10:20am
Rico
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Corn!

Corn!

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 11:22am
Pete
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Gold and Silver AM 6/26

Snapshots at 8am, end of 4hr bar...

[IMG]https://i45.tinypic.com/2d8gjlv.png[/IMG] ---gold 4hr

[IMG]https://i48.tinypic.com/2mqs42f.png[/IMG] --silver 4hr

There is short covering going on in gold at the new possible mlh. On the daily the downsloping ml was closed over (bullish), but it can't be seen on the 60m until many hrs later../(last night)

The many-days silver formation/R line nailed the low--that's why silver rebounded Monday. Due for a retest. Lots of pivots on the cl implies a strong R line. OE day in silver.

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 11:23am
SilverWealth
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Rectal Springs, CA
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Baidu Dog Hunt

Hunted Bidu into the brush and undergrowth today. Probably covered too soon. That thing is wounded and limping and laying off for a rest beneath the ferns...

OE in gold and silver seems to be weighing heavy. Dust continues to play well, especially as a hedge. If GDX breaks these lows then more weakness to come. Its Tuesday and Legonairre Titus has earmarked it as a long down day following 7:30 a.m. Pacific.

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 2:32pm
rtabit
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Joined: Jan 14, 2012
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ES

1318 looks like good place to short, stop at 1322. Only single bar so far hitting resistance, ideally you'd want 3 or 4, but I'm shorting here, I like to gamble and have no discipline.

Edit: Here's chart, my quotes have 15 or so minute lag, so pretend that last bar is hitting slope above it.

https://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/ES/media/e75ff96b-24ea-48ce-a044-5d96a1612da9

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 2:40pm (Reply to #24777)
tallydynasty
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Jesses's Cafe will some

Jesses's Cafe will some comments on the Armstrong TIMING MODELS..... https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/06/gold-daily-and-silver-...

I competely agree with Jesse.

"Chasing a model that predicts wiggles is a mug's game, wherein you are always chasing 'a better model.' If the model were any good, you certainly would not hear about it on a free web site. And for the most part, the wiseguys make money with practical models but gain their edge by 'cheating' using asymmetric information and stacking the odds in their favor. "

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 4:03pm
rtabit
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Armstrong Graphs

Can anyone explain how to read these graphs? I don't understand the meaning of the different colors of the bars or what the size of the bar indicates, but I think if I knew the meaning of the colors then the size would make sense.

https://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/the-truth-about-gold-why-you-should-buy-it/

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 4:18pm
Excalibur
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While you are at it, I was wondering what J. Pollack #5 means

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 4:32pm (Reply to #24779)
rtabit
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rtabit wrote: Can anyone

rtabit wrote:

Can anyone explain how to read these graphs? I don't understand the meaning of the different colors of the bars or what the size of the bar indicates, but I think if I knew the meaning of the colors then the size would make sense.

Found it, go to link and search for "FORECAST ARRAYS".

https://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/manual-models.pdf

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 8:45pm
sixdollarsilver
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For the gas players among us...

Oil & Gas. US LNG is gaining momentum as Exxon is potentially moving towards FID around the viability of US LNG exports by as early 2013. A key part of this shifting attitude can be attributed to Exxon’s shale gas results in Europe (Hungary, Poland) which have failed and a position as the largest producer of gas in the declining North Sea. Concerns about whether US LNG projects could generate long term value as the economics were reliant on the current pricing differential/spread which in our view Exxon is now more confident that this occurs. OSH & STO who have already fully contracted their projects we see the lowest risk from additional capacity and in our view WPL remains the most exposed to competitive threats (Browse, Pluto II, Sunrise) and supports our U/P. 

From Merrill FWIW

Tue, Jun 26, 2012 - 10:57pm
SilverWealth
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Alessio's warning on Silver

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 8:20am (Reply to #24783)
hhesse
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the future will have a chart pattern

nice presentation ... so logical.

but...as others have pointed out, an organized takedown of the market would have some sort of a technical look simply from the response of traders.

i wonder if the main reason to bring on the new normal so slowly is to employ the frog boil gambit -- keep everyone,s tokens in the financial casino ...

keep traders thinking that there is a possibility that that you can buy X cheaper some day (but diverting attention from the inescapable looming disaster)

with enough sophistication (TA), a man could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

conclusion: core position on fundamentals

flame me

PS -now successfully pivoting some.

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 8:44am
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

Daily XAU/USD
High 1587.89
Low  1567.67
Close 1572.60
R3 1604.65
R2 1596.27
R1 1584.43
Pivot 1576.05
S1 1564.21
S2 1555.83
S3 1543.99
Weekly XAU/USD
High 1633.54
Low  1558.13
Close 1572.46
R3 1693.36
R2 1663.45
R1 1617.95
Pivot 1588.04
S1 1542.54
S2 1512.63
S3 1467.13
Monthly XAU/USD
High 1671.95
Low  1526.88
Close 1560.16
R3 1790.85
R2 1731.40
R1 1645.78
Pivot 1586.33
S1 1500.71
S2 1441.26
S3 1355.64
Daily XAG/USD
High 27.591
Low  26.807
Close 27.092
R3 28.303
R2 27.947
R1 27.519
Pivot 27.163
S1 26.735
S2 26.379
S3 25.951
Weekly XAG/USD
High 28.983
Low  26.583
Close 26.894
R3 30.791
R2 29.887
R1 28.391
Pivot 27.487
S1 25.991
S2 25.087
S3 23.591
Monthly XAG/USD
High 31.330
Low  26.753
Close 27.695
R3 35.010
R2 33.170
R1 30.433
Pivot 28.593
S1 25.856
S2 24.016
S3 21.279
Daily EUR/USD
High 1.25315
Low  1.24413
Close 1.24945
R3 1.26271
R2 1.25793
R1 1.25369
Pivot 1.24891
S1 1.24467
S2 1.23989
S3 1.23565
Weekly EUR/USD
High 1.27488
Low  1.25187
Close 1.25696
R3 1.29362
R2 1.28425
R1 1.27061
Pivot 1.26124
S1 1.24760
S2 1.23823
S3 1.22459
Monthly EUR/USD
High 1.32846
Low  1.23358
Close 1.23647
R3 1.39364
R2 1.36105
R1 1.29876
Pivot 1.26617
S1 1.20388
S2 1.17129
S3 1.10900
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 8:59am
Rico
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Like the new look, Mr.

Like the new look, Mr. P!cool

S.W., nice video. Silver? Toast! Corn? Solid gold, baby!

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:18am
redwood
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Nice charts Pailin!

Nice charts Pailin!

Today's economic calendar: 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:30 Durable Goods 8:30 Chicago Midwest Mfg. Index 10:00 Pending Home Sales 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories 1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction

Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:23am
pailin
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Not new charts. Pulled from

Not new charts. Pulled from Chrome instead of Firefox. Got a nasty case of BABYLON (it's evil) throughout my system, really effed up FF and have been doing all sorts of purges since last night. Might finally be free now :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 27, 2012 - 9:24am
pailin
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Well boys looks like we all

Well boys looks like we all just missed buying the mega-dip there, eh?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
randomness