Foreign Affairs

224
Sat, Nov 26, 2011 - 12:55pm

Next week is shaping up to be an extremely volatile and tense week. At the surface, there is the ongoing concern over the EU and the future of the euro. Bubbling below the surface is something far more dangerous.

First, on Wednesday, there was this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/aircraft-carrier-cvn-77-parks-next-door-syria-just-us-urges-americans-leave-country-immediately

Which was followed by this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/russia-retaliates-against-us-puts-radar-station-combat-alert-prepares-take-out-european-missile

The only article I found concerning Medvedev's speech managed to minimize the concern by pointing out that all of the bluster was likely just "posturing before the next Russian presidential election". What the author failed to point out, however, is that Medvedev isn't running for re-election. Hmmm. So what do we make of it? What is going on here? Let's refer to the ageless wisdom of Admiral Painter:

Russians don't take a dump, son...

The Russians are clearly trying to send a signal to the U.S., NATO and the Arab League to NOT attack Syria and depose Assad the way they did Gaddafi. Syria is a longtime Russian ally in the region.

OK, so then we get this, from the media arm of The Mossad:

https://www.debka.com/article/21519/

Why would the Turks or the Israelis go to the trouble of wiping out 6 of Syria's "top pilots" if they weren't planning on assuming control of Syrian airspace in the near future?

https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-says-no-longer-tolerate-syria-bloodshed-113444151.html

And then we get this, also from debka. Looks like the Russian "plan" is escalating, too:

https://www.debka.com/article/21521/

Then, today, we are treated to this. Nothing like pissing off Pakistan, too, and at just the wrong time. You can bet your arse there will be mass rioting and anti-U.S. demonstrations in Pakistan over the next few days. Will there be sufficient chaos to unseat the ruling generals?

https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/26/us-pakistan-nato-idUSTRE7AP03S20111126

Just for a little background and color:

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

And, to top it all off, there's this:

https://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/iran-general-threatens-retaliation-against-israel-nuclear-sites-1.397789

And this:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-threatens-hit-turkey-us-israel-attack-15032413#.TtEtds1OBhs

So, enjoy the rest of your weekend. Rest and relax but keep an eye on the headlines. Perhaps this will all just blow over. Could we be so lucky? I fear the worst, however, so I'll leave you with one more bit of wisdom and experience from Admiral Painter.

We'll Be Lucky to Live Through It

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  224 Comments

Hold over
Nov 27, 2011 - 9:08pm

""It leads me to conclude

""It leads me to conclude that the Obama Administration is being complicit in the cover-up.""

DING !DING! DING!

John Pardo tell him what hes won!

Rosco Jeremiah Jr
Nov 27, 2011 - 9:31pm

You bring up some valid points, Jeremiah...

I do give credence to those in the Torah-believing, Ultra-Orthodox Jewish community who contend that the Zionist-led "premature" reestablishment of a secular state in what was regarded as the Promised Land, to be a grave sin against God, and one that they believe will bring a dire judgment against them.

https://www.nkusa.org/AboutUs/Zionism/opposition.cfm

I don't believe that God obligated Himself, in perpetuity, to grant rights to this land to the Jewish people. God did fulfill His end of the covenant with Israel, at a specific point in time to a specific people.

Joshua 21:43-45 43 So the LORD gave Israel all the land he had sworn to give their ancestors, and they took possession of it and settled there. 44 The LORD gave them rest on every side, just as he had sworn to their ancestors. Not one of their enemies withstood them; the LORD gave all their enemies into their hands. 45 Not one of all the LORD’s good promises to Israel failed; every one was fulfilled.

But this covenant relationship was conditional on their righteousness and continued obedience to His commands. These included, interestingly:

Lev 19:33-34 "'When an alien lives with you in your land, do not mistreat him. The alien living with you must be treated as one of your native-born. Love him as yourself, for you were aliens in Egypt. I am the LORD your God."

Deut 19:14 "Do not move your neighbor's boundary stone set up by your predecessors in the inheritance you receive in the land the LORD your God is giving you to possess."

Lev 18:28 "And if you defile the land, it will vomit you out as it vomited out the nations that were before you."

Lev 25:23-24 "The land must not be sold permanently, because the land is mine and you are but aliens and my tenants."

God entered into a new covenant, based on mercy and grace, and sealed by Christ's shed blood, grafting all peoples of the world, Jew and Gentile, into His eternal Kingdom and family. With the old covenant no longer in effect, all unrepentant covenant breakers were violently purged from that territory in 70 AD, scattering to the four corners of the earth, in exile until such time that their Messiah would restore them, not to an earthly Jerusalem, but I believe, to a new Jerusalem as part of an end of time new Heaven and a new Earth.

Hold over
Nov 27, 2011 - 9:55pm

Who the hell is Israel? Why

Who the hell is Israel? Why does anyone care?

During the cold war , Israel was our doorway to Mid East , in case the SHTF with Russia.

Now, We have several doorways into the Mid East. We don't get oil from them, We don't get food from them , We don't get Natural resources from them, We don't have any American bases there. they have no strategic value anymore. and Israel hasn't spilled a drop of blood in our wars.

These are facts, I'm not being anti-semetic at all . More people live in New York city than Israel . We have states bigger than their country . I don't see why they are any more important than Albania or Morocco.

Not to be callous, but I dont give a rats ass about a few thousand hectares of desert on the other side of world.

Anyone care to explain the vital national interest Israel is to the US? without referencing a bible, please dont say Allie's, they didn't fight with us in Korea, Vietnam nor any present wars .

Drifter
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:04pm

Israel is the only free nation in the middle east

the rest are varying shades of Islamic dictatorships that hate the west, Israel & each other

we're on the same sidewink

Subotai
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:12pm

Bad News, Good News

First, the bad news. I think Turd is absolutely right that the headlines coming out of the Middle East are a prelude to, at a minimum, some tense moments next week and expanded coverage in an attempt to distract people from Europe. Combined with Obama's flagging poll numbers in New Hampshire (suggesting he could lose to just about any Republican by next Nov.) and TPTB have set things up perfectly for a little saber-rattling.

Meanwhile, the IMF is apparently going to guarantee north of $700B to Italy - coincidence? No way. Now people will be asking fewer questions about where that money is coming from. Has to be the Fed, doesn't it?

Next, the good news. While Obama is easily incompetent enough to draw us into a war, the odds are still long. Yes, it is unlikely the Republicans would use it against him in the campaign, and it may make him look more presidential. However, the course of such endeavors are unpredictable, and Obama won't willingly take the risk. Modern weapons are so complicated to build and operate, and so utterly lethal, that full scale "real" war would be over so quickly, and be so destructive, that no agenda could be served by starting one. In the mid 1980's the military gamed literally hundreds of conventional war scenarios between the US and Russia over Western Europe, and the longest such scenario only ran for 3 months. Not enough time to even institute a draft. Israel will win (or lose) a war in the Middle East in a matter of days, if not hours.

We have been somewhat dulled by our recent counter-terrorism and nation-building/occupation adventures - real shooting wars between nations can't serve the same purposes they did in the past - employ the masses, tool up factories, increase the public stomach for debt. An actual shooting war would serve no purpose for bankers or other traditional war profiteers that could possibly outweigh the harm that would be done to what is most dear to them - the average citizens' ability and willingness to repay debt.

Now, more bad news. The explanation above only reduces the odds it is in anyone's interest to actually fight a war, it doesn't explain away the possibility that we could be drug into another occupation by events beyond our control. I think despite their posturing the Russians and Iranians would both be happy to see us end up on the ground in Syria. Rather than fight it out with us, they will sit back and watch as we fail in a manner that would make Iraq look like the Spanish American War.

Last but not least, the final good news. The military establishment is not stupid, and they are giving Obama the following assessment: involvement in Syria is a lose-lose proposition. Even if the Israelis are drawn in by Syrian aggression, even if the Iranians step up their involvement, stay the hell away. I think they may also be quietly counseling Obama that our time in Pakistan is up. The latest incident cannot be overcome, and we risk causing political turmoil if we press the issue of continued presence further. We need to leave or we condemn the country to rule by extremists. Without our resupply route through the Khyber Pass, we're then all but done in Afghanistan. Good thing Obama has already telegraphed our Afghan exit, otherwise the political price to be paid by leaving Pakistan would be too damn high.

All of this will support lower, not higher paper PM prices, IMO. It will drive safe haven buying into crude, to the extent it isn't driven into Treasuries. I think it all comes down to how the equities markets react to the BS numbers on Black Friday retail sales released this weekend. If they buy the hype, that will be the story. If they don't, then look for international intrigue as Plan B, which will at least remove the spotlight from the European bailout being cooked up.

question
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:17pm

He's the Universal Soldier

and he really is to blame, his orders come from far away no more. Donovan

These guys need to back off from being order following automatons. They are not above the law and need to be held accountable-as do our despicable leaders.

Don't know about the bible but "instant Karma is going to get you".

Israel seems to be a set-up; they're being used, poor ba**ards.

Oh, well, not the first and won't be the last.

AU/AG looking up!!

Love ya Turd, you belong here; thanks

Oh yeah,"Damn You Masters of War". Dylan

Tyler
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:25pm

Subotai you make many good points

One thing to consider though - the elite/military have been building HUGE underground fallout shelters at a frantic pace in the US and other countries like Russia. Although a full-scale war is not effective from the mindset you mention, if the goal actually is destruction...

Drifter
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:34pm

@ Subotai

Sorry I don't buy it. You overlooked an obvious motivator for many of the parties involved- Iranian nuclear capability. Someone is going to smash it & general turmoil in the area is a good excuse. Iran, Syria, Hamas & Hezbollah have been getting ready for 2 years for the next big one and I doubt they see this as anything but an opportunity.

and this- "The military establishment is not stupid, and they are giving Obama the following assessment:"

how do you know what the military establishment is telling pres Obama?

Hold over
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:39pm

Israel is the only free

Israel is the only free nation in the middle east

Can the people of Gaza vote? Run for office? The Bull dozeing settlements,

I've seen the Israeli version of democracy ,not sure I can agree with you

Subotai
Nov 27, 2011 - 11:53pm

@Drifter

How do I know what the military is telling Obama? I prefer not to say, but call it an educated guess. Anyone would reach the same conclusions, though, after a quick perusal of the scholarship coming out of the Army War College. It gives one a pretty good idea how most military minds look at things in the Middle East, especially Iran.

I encourage anyone that is convinced that we MUST prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons to read what our sharper military minds say on the subject. In a nutshell, Iran will find nukes just about as useful as everyone else does - they have dubious value in preventing your country from being invaded, and are utterly useless for anything else. The Iranians may want to lob a radioactive payload at the Zionist Pigs, but one of two things will happen if they do: 1) They will kill tens of thousands of Palestinians as well, and Israel will obliterate them; or 2) they will fail. The only thing worse than committing mass genocide is failing to get the job done. Either way, whatever is left of Iran will have no friends, save maybe North Korea.

The last thing Iran wants is a conflict that provides anyone cover to assault their nuclear program. They will want to contain the violence within Syrian borders and rocket attacks from Lebanon, trying to goad the Israelis into invading Lebanon. Iran may or may not believe that the Israelis/Americans will inevitably strike, but either way they won't increase the risk, or guarantee it, by overtly intervening in Syria.

What is truly fascinating to me is how Russia is playing this. Despite their lack of any real ability to deter us, they are openly bellicose and providing some very dangerous weapons to the regime in Syria. It's almost as if they're falling victim to their own version of the domino theory. It doesn't make a lot of sense, given the popularity of Putin and Medvedev. It is unlikely the fall of the Syrian regime would change that appreciably. They must have reached a different conclusion than the rest of the world and believe Assad can weather the storm without their direct involvement, which can't possibly be in the cards.

D.B. Cooper
Nov 28, 2011 - 12:13am

On the subject of AIPAC and

On the subject of AIPAC and Israel, here's a video that aired in Europe in 2007 on the AIPAC lobby and how it's taboo to discuss and talk about in the US. It's worth watching...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N294FMDok98

TheGreatKD TF
Nov 28, 2011 - 12:46am

Turd you know your on the right side !!!

Many will scoff & laugh but the Holy Bible tells it all end from beginning & history is being fulfilled before our very eyes. That is if they are open !!! KD

Swift Boat Vet Aram
Nov 28, 2011 - 2:18am

Put a sock in it Aram!

Your childish tantrums today, because the moderator pulled a post of yours, bespeak of an agenda on your part. The mod explained why it was pulled and the explanation was more than sufficient reason for that action. This is not the first time you've had posts pulled. An adult would realize that repeated posting of the same cr*p that got yanked the first time is not only childish, but is exactly what trolls can't seem to stop doing as that seems to be more important than anything else. Crap gets deleted once, so you just wait until late the next night and do the same garbage with a link.

Turd has more patience than I for your childish insistence to post the same crap week in and week out. Other areas are reserved for you to rant on any subject your little heart desires ----- USE THEM !!!

Swifty

Moderator Washington
Nov 28, 2011 - 8:45am

We won't be hearing from Aram anymore

We won't be hearing from Aram anymore

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