Turd Back

Fri, Jul 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Turd back. Turd refreshed. Turd ready.

After giving the printer, the Sharpie and the ruler a few days off, The Turd is back with a vengeance. As you might imagine, I could lay all sorts of charts on you this morning but time limits me to these six. I will certainly have a more comprehensive wrap-up over the weekend.


Looks terrific. First up, on the daily chart, you can clearly see how it has broken out of the "summer range" I had laid out. It is still susceptible to falling back into the range so it needs, now, to make another leg higher. I'll feel extremely confident that the doldrums are, in fact, over when gold moves past and closes above yesterday's intraday highs near 1595.

On the 8-hour chart, you can see the breakout past the early-May highs. I mentioned yesterday that a pullback to near those highs would be a good buying opportunity. It was. So far, so good.

And this 2-hour chart is very interesting. Longtime Turdites will note the familiar, "swiss stair"-type accumulation seen here. This is a compellingly bullish chart and indicates more advance to come. The next leg will take gold to 1600+. You'll know the formation has ended and consolidation has begun when the chart breaks down and through the previous stair's high. In this case, we'd want to watch for gold to trade down through 1575. Note that it stopped right there earlier.

All in all, gold looks great. It's poised to tackle 1600 and move on toward Santa's long-awaited 1650.


It's almost time to get really excited about silver but I can't blame you if you already are. First look at this 8-hour chart. As you know, I've maintained for quite some time that silver must perform 3 steps before we can get aggressively long again. First, it had to get through the down trendline off of the peak in late May. Check! Then, it had to get through the down trendline off of the recovery high of 39.45 set on 5/11. Check! Lastly, it has to get through and close above that 39.45 level. Not yet but soon?

If you ever wanted to see a classic, textbook bottom, you have one here on this 2-hour silver chart. A steep decline and sharp reversal off of the second bottom at 33.50. A rally to 37 with a sharp pullback that stops right at the level of the top between the two bottoms, near 35. Then, a powerful rally. Like gold, silver pulled back almost exactly to the point I'd mentioned yesterday as a good entry spot. I hope you were able to take advantage of the opportunity. If not, don't despair. More opportunities await.

Let's watch silver very closely here. Once silver closes above 39.45, it will move very quickly toward $40. When it begins printing numbers that begin with "4", open interest will explode as big money will rapidly return to the pit. Once this happens, I expect silver to rapidly advance toward 48-50.


Just wanted to throw a bone to all of the crude-watchers. It is trying to form a reverse H&S but needs to be watched closely. Just as we need crude to rally again and get back above $100, it also needs to avoid slipping back below 94. Keep a close eye on this one.

OK, that's it for now. Thanks again for your patience in allowing me a little Turd downtime. Have a great day! TF

p.s. Be sure to check out Santa's latest:


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 15, 2011 - 2:42pm

SEC Charges Forex Firm/Ponzi Scheme

SEC Charges Forex Firm Over Ponzi Scheme

July 15, 2011 marketwatch.com

By Wallace Witkowski

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission charged Jeffery Lowrance with running a multimillion dollar Ponzi scheme under the guise of a foreign currency trading firm Friday. Lowrance, who headed First Capital Savings & Loan Ltd., allegedly raised $21 million from investors in at least 26 states, and promised monthly returns up to 7.15% through foreign currency trading. Lowrance, who fled to Peru and was arrested there earlier in the year, had used most of the money to fund his start-up newspaper "USA Tomorrow," according to the SEC.


DPH: Just a couple letters off, maybe the SEC should target the Comex instead.

Eric Original
Jul 15, 2011 - 2:44pm

flat for the weekend??

I keep thinking that we should see things go a little soft toward the close, as traders lighten up for the weekend. But, WTFDIK?

Jul 15, 2011 - 2:48pm

Has EE lost it's will

or the actual ability to raid the PM market? Today was the perfect day to paint a FUTF on the charts, but today's action just looks blah - even a little to the upside. Has JPM lost all its shorts mojo?

Jul 15, 2011 - 2:49pm

Hey Eric .... *waves at Eric*

Hey Eric .... *waves at Eric* ........haven't bumped into you in a few days

(we need a waving hand smiley)

I'm hoping we do soften up price wise over the next week or two as I want a good entry point for my UNG, UXG, SVM, etc. ......Of course, if price is going where a bunch of folks say it's going.....then any entry point might be ok for the next little while.

RuNuts buzlightening
Jul 15, 2011 - 2:50pm


Submitted by buzlightening

Publicly bentrod keeps all confused but behind our backs the dead head feds...
FalseParadigm SilverLeaf
Jul 15, 2011 - 2:52pm


I can assure you I am not trying to scare anyone away from PMs. As I have stated numerous times, I am an active physical buyer and holder.

All I am saying is that I'm anticipating a dip leading up to QE3. As I have posted numerous times, equities and commodities HAVE to tank in order for Bernanke to have full support for further easing. If equities and commodities do indeed falter then gold and silver will surely participate to some extent.

Remember, silver and gold are hedges against inflation. If inflation is [according to the Fed] dropping then futures demand for the metals should drop as well. Also if the new threat is deflation then demand will further be weakened.

Everyone that's active on this website knows the endgame. Problem is futures traders are not of the same mold that we are. Wall Street cronies care about one thing and one thing only; rate of return. Money will flow into whatever is yielding the highest rate of return. With a [temporarily] renewed "confidence" in the US dollar (given the Euro's problems and "slowing" inflation) money will likely flow into treasuries.

I have also shown several times that those that trade PM contracts in the futures market generally have almost zero interest in physical delivery. So if that's the case then again it has little to do with physical buying and is primarily an investment vehicle for Wall Street to make profit (as well as hedge against a POTENTIAL currency crisis; i.e. US default).

The primary driver of the recent rally has been:

1. The problems of the Eurozone
2. Potential US default
3. Bernanke saying that QE3 is a possibility but would only be considered if economic conditions worstened significantly and inflation eased

Europe will continue to have problems which will lead to a stronger dollar once the debt deal is reached. And again for #3 above, Bernanke has NOT said he plans on launching QE3 anytime soon. That's what shocked me about Wednesday and Thursday. The market reacted as if Bernanke's testimony was identical to Jackson-Hole. Bernanke essentially said, "There will be NO further easing at this time. We feel that the US and global economies are currently working their way through a soft patch and will finish strong in Q3 and Q4. Further easing will ONLY be considered if economic conditions worsen (equities/commodities drop 10-20+ percent, unemployment rises above 10%, inflation slows and deflationary risks re-emerge).

Who's right? Well we shall see within a week I should say.

Jul 15, 2011 - 2:53pm

so really no thoughts about a

so really no thoughts about a short term pull back after all this upside ?

think i should dump my october puts while I am still even?

FalseParadigm TexAsh
Jul 15, 2011 - 2:53pm

I'd wager...

That they're waiting until the debt ceiling deal is announced which will maximize downward pressure. Launching a strike right now would run right into a brick wall of conviction buying and would be a waste.

Jul 15, 2011 - 2:55pm

Submitted by Ginger on July

Submitted by Ginger on July 15, 2011 - 2:49pm.

(we need a waving hand smiley)


Jul 15, 2011 - 2:56pm

It has to be

as it reads just like Afrum.

@Afrum: why the change of moniker?

Anyhow, glad to have you here! I always liked your wording and style.

Jul 15, 2011 - 2:56pm

Really Ugly Chart

From zerohedge.com today.


As for those looking for Fed shadiness, look no further than the Fed's "Other Assets" which last week hit a fresh all time high of $136 billion, and which still nobody really knows what they are.

Eric Original
Jul 15, 2011 - 2:57pm

Hi Ginger *waving*

I had a howdy reply for you over at that thread that GoodDoc started about that silver takeover list.

Yup, needing a pullback here too so that I could buy some things on my wish list.

RuNuts California Lawyer
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:01pm

Re: It has to be

Yep after the last one:

EU financial stress test of banks.

Submitted by buzlightening on July 15, 2011 - 2:23pm.

Give 'em hell Afrum is back! Good to see the old hands coming out to play.


The Doc
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:05pm

Ron Paul Survey

Working on a survey to find out what percentage of those who are planning on voting for Ron Paul in 2012 DID NOT vote for Paul in 2008. Love to get all the Turdites' input...we're planning on sharing the results with the Paul campaign.

Ron Paul Survey

Eric Original
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:11pm


That's all good stuff.

When I mention that I lightened up, or I'm looking to buy, or whatever, rest assured that is with a relatively small piece of trading money. The main core just sits and sits. I don't want to get caught out of the market when it really blasts off either.

tpbeta FalseParadigm
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:11pm


Hope you're right. At the moment I'm sharing your analysis but feeling pretty wrong at the same time. Things don't have to make sense in order for them to happen.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:12pm

ooops.. Eric. ....My ADHD or

ooops.. Eric. ....My ADHD or OCD or whatever the heck is wrong with me kicks in big time when I post. I FORGET which threads I post on ...so, I'll have to head over there later today. ;)

I hope afrum is here. I have missed him.

silverdoctors, you can count me in that number. I will click the survey. ...........Vote your convictions..not your party.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:13pm

New Cyber Security Plan

DPH: Get ready for the internet to be reworked for national security reasons.


By Bob Spoerl of Medill News Service

Fixes story to reflect that 24,000 files of an unnamed company were hacked into.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Land, air, sea, space — now cyberspace. The Department of Defense Thursday released its first-ever “Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace,” and private companies are being called to service.

“Everybody is on the frontline,” Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III said at an official announcement detailing the new cybersecurity plan at the National Defense University.

Bob Spoerl/Medill News Service Gen. James Cartwright (left) and Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn discuss the new cybersecurity plan of the Defense Department.

The strategy, called the first unified plan incorporating DOD’s military, intelligence and business operations, lays out five pillars for defending against cyber attacks. Several of those pillars specifically address civilian help. Defense contractors and Internet service providers are expected to play an integral role in cyber defense.

Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the strategy a way “to build a layering for defense strategy awareness.”

As part of the strategy, the Pentagon created a 90-day pilot program involving AT&T /quotes/zigman/398198/quotes/nls/t T -1.06% , Verizon Communications /quotes/zigman/262341/quotes/nls/vz VZ -0.42% and Century Link /quotes/zigman/203112/quotes/nls/ctl CTL -0.60% , the Internet service providers to a handful of defense contractors. They are given access to classified defense information to help protect against attacks by cyber hackers. After the program ends this summer, the Defense Department would like to expand its civilian cyber security base to allow dozens of companies to participate.

The pilot program comes after a March 24 cyber attack against an unnamed defense company. Some 24,000 of that company’s files, ones that contained military secrets, were hacked into. The Defense Department won’t say who or what group was responsible.

In May, defense industry company Lockheed Martin Corp. /quotes/zigman/150087 LMT -1.79% faced a cyber attack of an undisclosed magnitude.

The Center for Democracy & Technology, a surveillance security watchdog, is optimistic that the information shared with defense-related companies will lead to more thorough Internet security.

“It breaks a logjam that has been in place and that could have led to Department of Defense monitoring networks itself,” center lawyer Greg Nojeim said.

As a result of the Defense Department pilot program, Internet providers now have access to classified signatures, which would better defend networks, Nojeim said. The only concern is how the private companies will share information with the Defense Department and the Department of Homeland Security.

“The flow back to the government hasn’t been described,” Nojeim said. “You want to avoid a back-door wiretap.”

Cyber exploitation in the form of fraud and intellectual property theft has cost the nation some $1 trillion, according to the Defense Department.

“Blunting our edge in military technology and enabling foreign competitors to copy the fruits of our commercial innovation has a deeply corrosive effect over the long-term,” Lynn said.

Thursday’s cybersecurity announcement may spur defense technology innovation. The Defense Department announced it would commit $500 million to research. However, it doesn’t know how Defense will fund long-term cybersecurity initiatives, especially the part of the plan that mixes private and public safety concerns.

“The legal policy framework as well as the business model here are challenges,” Lynn said.

TheGoodDoctor The Doc
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:14pm

@silverdoctors Many people

@silverdoctors Many people would have had to vote for Ron Paul as a write in in 2008 since he did not get on many ballots. He actually wanted folks to vote for a third party candidate and I believe he endorsed the Constitutional Party candidate Chuck Baldwin which is who I voted for. I just wanted to vote for a third party candidate and I didn't like Bob Barr (Libertarian Party candidate) since he bashed Ron Paul. So, your survey results could be skewed because of this.

Eric Original
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:18pm


Just hit your "history" tab. It will tell you anytime there's a new comment on all the threads you've been active on. That's what it's there for. "/

And I don't mean on your browser or anything. Just click on "My Account" in the upper left part of this site, or on your name anywhere you see it, then hit your history tab. It takes like two seconds to get back to anywhere you've been.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:19pm


thanks to Tesla and PRize Fighter for the terrific photos of my favorite animals!

Now BTFDip. Always.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:19pm

Trading in this environment

I'm posting this from the other thread. I thought it might be helpful on this one too.

Hello all. Don't trade unless you have to or have money you are comfortable losing. I just buy core positions for the long haul and don't trade. In this type of a corrupt market it is hard for the average retail investor to trade. I'm not against trading but in this environment you have to do what the gurus over at KWN say, Embry, Turk, Sinclair and Hathaway. Keep your gold/silver shares - the blast off could happen at any time. Just for instance everyone thought we have been in the summer doldrums and the guys above have said this summer could be a break out. And it is certainly true with the POG.

If you have "risk" powder and can trade then do it. Or if you are experienced at options do it. But I have a lot to learn from that aspect. There are plenty of folks sharing good information in the forums. It's best to just have some dry powder and be ready to buy when the stock you are looking to buy goes down. If you already have positions and love the stock because of the DD you have done then you can always buy more. I know many of you probably know all of this but I am just trying to help others during this time. Especially if they are new to this site or are just getting their toes wet in purchasing shares.

The best way to handle some of this is with stink bids (a bid to purchase that is below the current price) in case something you like goes down. I don't really believe in stop losses during this time because the EE has blasted the markets down to take out stop losses so they can buy cheap shares and/or help them to buy shorts in the miners we all love. This isn't advice, just some things to think about to help eliminate risk. And I know many of you have been doing this for years and have been successful so again this post is to help newbies. And that is why Turd has helped us as a guide with his charting. His work helps with trying to time your buys. As the saying goes BTFD!

FalseParadigm tpbeta
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:20pm

That's my point though

Everyone knows that the US will not default and that some sort of deal will be reached.

If the Fed and the banking elites really wanted to send gold and silver parabolic then they'd allow the US to default and end the Ponzi scheme right now.

My thinking is that so long as oil is surging (which helps drive gold and silver) that QE3 is not possible. Bernanke's critics blast him for directly causing inflation...So...If oil continues to rise (causing further inflation) how exactly does Bernanke launch QE3 without Washington taking an ax to his head?

I think there will be a very different tone to the markets once the debt ceiling is raised. But again who knows, I could be wrong. I just don't see the PLAN of it all. Nothing that happens is by accident. The elites are carrying out their specific plan. None of this adds up.

TheGoodDoctor Eric Original
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:20pm

@Eric Oringal and all Indeed

@Eric Oringal and all Indeed nothing wrong with taking profits at all!

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:25pm


gold and silver
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:32pm
Dr G TexAsh
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:44pm


A little to the upside? I count this as a strong closing. We haven't had a week like this in a while. Just a brilliant group of trading sessions for gold and I'm so proud of our little silver.

I'm *anticipating* a nice spike up as we open again on Sunday evening in Sydney & Asian trading, followed by a bit of back to reality through Monday morning, with a higher close by Monday evening.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:46pm

Dead Head Feds

Dead Head Feds

Is a dead give away.

It's afrum.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:48pm


It seems absolutely foolish and ridiculous to the point of recklessness that the DOD or ANY of its contractors would have servers containing national defense secrets or any sensitive information connected to the internet. WTF These guys are complete incompetents or they are liars ... I say the latter and contend this is a false flag event designed to fool, then control and manipulate the peasants.

Or... they are STUPID beyond belief!

I think it's a cover story propaganda excuse for quashing freedom of speech on the internet.

May these devils minions burn in hell (as soon as possible!)

Dr G FalseParadigm
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:48pm


The ​perception​ that QE3 is needed is difficult to keep an eye on while the commodities are up and piping hot, but the reality is that it will still happen, regardless of what the figures show. QE is needed to fund our shabby US government operations. Bottom line. Another round of poor jobs numbers on August 5 and we are back in QE business. That will happen no matter what the Bernank says.

Sure, pushing the QE would be easier if commodities were down, but it won't stop him in the long run.

Remember, the Bernank can spin data however he wants to and it doesn't even make sense. Commodities are down because of oil prices. Commodities are up because of oil prices. Commodities are down because of the weather. Gold is not money. Gold is tradition. We are open to continued QE. Blah, blah, blah. His actions speak volumes.


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