Sheeple's miners analysis

536 posts / 0 new
Last post
Mon, Mar 26, 2012 - 1:46am
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

Well....more to add

add to the uncertain views....Andy H thinks Adam Hamilton is a pure idiot.

What I saw in hamiltons ZEAL article....is he bases his logical views upon the premise that the market is free and normal. and the miners are at severely undervalued prices and they should go soaring again at some point.

What Hamilton Never mentions is the blatant unlimited naked (illegal) short selling the cartel has been doing for over a year .

Thats what Andy H talks about with great clarity. 

Andy is seeing the reality of current market conditions. Hamilton's analysis never factored it in at all.

If this was 2006 or 2009 I would like what Hamilton is saying , just as I liked him back then. But now, in this rigged market....Andy's voice is the most clear.

Maybe the very small handful of penny or junior miners out there that are discovering great drill holes, and their share price will soar as a result, will be the way to play the game now....if you want to play with miners in this 'new normal' market. Great care is needed.

Mon, Mar 26, 2012 - 6:29am (Reply to #302)
Gwyde
Offline
-
Belgium
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
803
2316

Adam Hamilton

T wrote:

add to the uncertain views....Andy H thinks Adam Hamilton is a pure idiot.

What I saw in hamiltons ZEAL article....is he bases his logical views upon the premise that the market is free and normal. and the miners are at severely undervalued prices and they should go soaring again at some point.

What Hamilton Never mentions is the blatant unlimited naked (illegal) short selling the cartel has been doing for over a year .

Thats what Andy H talks about with great clarity. 

Andy is seeing the reality of current market conditions. Hamilton's analysis never factored it in at all.

If this was 2006 or 2009 I would like what Hamilton is saying , just as I liked him back then. But now, in this rigged market....Andy's voice is the most clear. (...)

The problem with quantitative analysis, the way Adam Hamilton treats it, is that it leaves little or no place to factor in short-selling.

At the best you have one (delayed) observation a fortnight on the short volume (of the previous month). But then again: what's the short volume to take into account for an index as the HUI? Weighted sum of the short volumes of the components? 

Add to the naked shorting the covered shorts, the notional value of the calls written and puts bought (both of which are 'short instruments') and the short volumes on optionable ETF's invested in these miners. Man, it's a tedious task getting to calculate the total short position. Quantifying its influence on the stock price seems out of the question. 

Gwyde
Mon, Mar 26, 2012 - 8:02am (Reply to #299)
Gwyde
Offline
-
Belgium
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
803
2316

Bob Moriarty joining in the choir

More support for Adam Hamilton's point of view:

Extremes of Emotion

Bob Moriarty, Mar 26, 2012

https://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty032612.html

OK instead of the HUI he charts the XAU relative to gold. In my little corner I've also been charting the MVGDXJ against the XAU (because they set off at an initial ratio of 10:1, which is kind of nice for charting.)

Note that the book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds” by Charles MacKay, can also be read on-line at the Guthenberg foundation in the above link.

Gwyde
Mon, Mar 26, 2012 - 6:36pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

Miners need to be paying dividends

I tink I read some experts a while back saying that until the miners start paying good dividends , the public will stay away from miners in this market. The mining companies need to add incentive for investors.

Tue, Mar 27, 2012 - 10:49am
Diamond
Offline
-
Portland, ME
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
71
195

Indicator Suggests Precious Metals Stocks Due for a Big Rally

Did anybody catch this Minyanville article from yesterday? https://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/precious-me...

"There is a deep, abiding, unshakable satisfaction in a life of complete failure.." - Edward Abbey
Sun, Apr 1, 2012 - 6:33pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

duplicate

dup

Sun, Apr 1, 2012 - 6:55pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

The week ahead

What happened in miners last week. seems the same as the week before. Next week? maybe same thing again....they bounced at a 'bottom' this past week.... so we are looking for some follow through this week....maybe a choppy few days, but should at some point continue up to test the resistance zones in the middle of all the charts we see. does that make sense or is it too vague. Middle zone in GDX is around 53. Middle zone in EGO is around 16/17

Middle zone in SVM is around 8/9/10

resistance zone. Moving averages converging in the middle zones. Trendline coming down from last years tops..... looking at charts.....resistance... will be the place the Short attack process resumes in a serious way. 

its not hard to find on the charts.

 I anticipate the game will continue in the miners weakness....and this will be the place to see a greater downturn resume. 

 It might correspond with gold hitting a wall at 1725 - 1750 and silver at 34-35-36. 

This kind of wave Up from the recent bottom bounce ... if it now begins ... to make a move higher to reach these next higher levels in metals and miners....would become the wave C of an ABC pattern......and IF it coincides with the end of April or any time in May...it might suggest a time to "sell in may and go away."

 There is another scenario I would watch for....and that is one where the current wave structure is Not Finished Going DOWN. and that we will see this latest bottom and bounce as a dead cat, soon to whipsaw down and lower to lower lows..... for further damnation in the miners....but it would finish as a reliable Bottom for this cycle.

After that bottom, the upwave rally should commence. going into May...and targeting those resistance zone in the middle with the moving averages there. This kind of a whipsaw down move to lower lows or a retest of the bottom we just had, could correspond with metals falling back down to target 1600 gold and 30 silver.

Bottom line....I do expect to see another fall in metals to test the gold 1600 zone and silver 30 zone. I cannot imagine the cartel will sit back and allow metals to just go soaring up again, without even a serious effort to hit 1600 gold and 30 silver.

Or, to put it another way, if we dont see the next wave down to hit 1600 gold 30 silver soon, then it means we would see it later in the summer or fall. 

The stupidest sucker game to get sucked into now would be to chase the metals into the 1700 gold and 34 silver and chasing them higher , as if they will never look back .....that would feel to me like a sucker move waiting to get whipsawed, as they get slammed back down in the summer. ( However, if we do see this drop to 1600 gold....what the difference is between 1670 gold and 1600 gold, in the long run,regarding stacking , is small change)

I expect to see a basic sideways slide along in the coming weeks....Unless we do see one more sharp move down to silver 30 , gold 1610....soon.... but otherwise, if the metals sit and slide along the 1700 gold zone and 33/34 silver zone for a while.... maybe go up a little toward 1740/1750 zone to sucker in some more suckers....same with silver..... I wont trust it. 

Last week, looked like a reasonable bottom formation in candlesticks,indicators, and price levels..... but many times there is a whipsaw move back down to make the full bottom happen. Anticipate it. Dont get excited about any bottom bounce , or any movement that looks like a breakout.....always expect the pullback to retest the breakout. This week is the time for the pullback from last weeks movement. or....next week if not this week. Waves move ....in waves..... they take time to play out. What looked like a bottom last week, might look like its stabilizing sideways this week, and might whipsaw back down the next week, for the real bottom. 

Then the real upwave rally for a month or so might begin.to finish in May.

Its all a guess. wasted breath. anything could happen.

The week ahead. The game is unchanged. owning risky miners in rigged markets,,,, need to sell most of them...as soon as it seems the right time. The right time to sell them, so far, was April 2011

Right now, I'm just praying to see one more good wave Up to a top zone. Get me to the top of the range....or even 2/3 of the way. 

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 11:17pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

the last 4 trading days in miners

 3 days up that looked fairly real ....and today..... one bearish engulfing death star attack that erased the 3 day rally .

3 days going up. 45 minutes coming down. 

nothing else to say.

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:03am
Diamond
Offline
-
Portland, ME
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
71
195

Holy shit

I cannot believe the manipulation going on. It seems to be going at hyper speed this last two weeks. At this rate, it feels like a near certainty silver is dropping below 30, and gold below 1600. That's what they want. And then the spec longs will even stay away. My miner portfolio is down 50 f__ing percent since February. Nice religious experience, Jim Sinclair. This is such a joke.

"There is a deep, abiding, unshakable satisfaction in a life of complete failure.." - Edward Abbey
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 4:29pm
question
Offline
-
CA
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
725
3500

Whatever's Right I Don't Know

Bought another few hundred GPL today @ $2.10; I've a feeling that this year is going nowhere until after the (s)election is over. What happens then I've no idea but I'm bettingwink things will be allowed to readjust price wise. What bothers me a lot is that I can see nationalization happening with mines and/or huge tax increases on pm sales making sure none of us get too far ahead.

Getting to feel that the game is rigged to such an extent that only the "special" will come out ahead, one way or another.

Mordor is all powerful, trolls and trollocs run amok and no one's seen Sam or Frodo for quite a while.

Thought maybe we were going to see a few up days allowing miners to get to a break even point to unload or lighten up but nnoooooooo!

"3 days going up. 45 minutes coming down." Don't really mind the volatility but would sure like to see some volatile UUUPPP days instead of only down days.

Stairs up, elevator down I read somewhere.

Learn to behave
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 4:52pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

who buys and when

Like BOG,or someone said, the penny miners will start going up when gold and silver break into higher prices ,above 1700 and 34 or wherever that price breakout would be. 1750 gold? I dont know....but the idea sounds right.

 seems like there are two basic buy triggers .......investors and traders will buy at the bottoms (the smart ones) and others will buy the topside breakouts(hedge funds,institutions, and sheeple suckers)

So between these two time frames...we are close to the bottom bargain buy zone....certainly not the topside breakout zone. 

At this bottom zone area, I'm watching PSLV for a drop below 13 ,maybe 12.80

PHYS for a drop below todays 'bottom' at 13.90 (13.90 isnt too bad, but one more plunge could be ok. 13.75 area

EGO around 12

GG around 38.75

FSM around 3.80

EXK around 8.40

AXU at 6

SVM at 6

SLW at 29

AUQ at 8.10

Pretium at 12.50 area

Aurcana around 78 cents

my biotech....CIGX around 2.50 area

GALT around 3.50 area

sadly, some core miners that used to be great, no longer ,suffering serious problems....

Avion Gold , with the Mali coup,I may have to sell it when the time is right.

Scorpio mining, poor outlook for future resource development, will have to sell. 

and ultimately will need to sell much of the miner portfolio if it recovers to the middle zone.in the coming month.

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 6:42pm
GP
Offline
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
6
9

@T

If this is the killer move (an extremely violent crash which is designed to scare the living daylight out of remaining share holders) as I'm suspecting than I think that the shares could go much lower than anyone expects... I think that everyone who's invested in mining shares should be mentally prepared for such a scenario. I'm guessing 140-160 as the bottom range for the XAU but will not be surprised to see it crash even lower.

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:54pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

its possible

 I was just reading a post about how this being an election year, the wave structure of market rally might be different than the normal "sell in may" cycle. Then theres also something about June.... and QE3 .... 

Market might slide down thru May into June and then make a rally into the fall and election, but that would be if the PTB want Obama to be re elected. 

It sure gets tiresome guessing what will happen every other day.

So much simpler to just buy bullion at low target zones , like now. If we see price fall back to this level, buy again. thats pretty simple. Much easier than waiting to see the miners recover. not knowing if they will, when they will, etc.

People think they can get an edge by analyzing cycles, and Technical indicators, and sometimes it looks like it does work. But its all guessing game. If these markets are rigged, theres no way to know what will happen,even when you think you have figured out a formula of evidence, like Turd had figured....then, Bam, it goes a little haywire.

I had a peculiar indicator that I noticed in 2009 was working like clockwork.....the Full Moon/New Moon cycle reversal timer. The market waves reversed at the full moons and the new moons.... about 10 times during 2009, and some in 2010...and then....it stopped happening half way thru 2010.

Thu, Apr 5, 2012 - 4:17pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

end of week

so what did this week show you ?

anything different ?

Miners bounce from last week what looked like a fair bottom ....and then what happened?

whipsaw and collapse all the way back down , and lower?

Is Andy H correct? 

what else to say....

gold hit 1612. what was my target ? oh yeah, 1610

silver 'bottomed' at 31. Andy would say "Exactly at 31"

is 31 the final bottom? I am betting on 30. maybe even 29 something.

what else happened this week?

It doesnt really matter .

gold is in a pause zone around 1630 area. the resistance 'top' is not 1630 its 1640. I see a move to 1640 and then the next whipsaw Down to 1600. gold.

silver at 30.

April will slide along into May....miners will continue to flounder along , maybe make a small move up....and then as we get closer to May..... will be nail biting time to decide whether to sell the miners or continue to hold. Holding thru the summer is risky. But thats what Casey research wants us to do. be courageous at these bottoms. 

 I say Pray really hard....that we see a rally back to the Middle zone....like HUI at 535 area....and then sell as much as you can for as little loss as possible. I hope I can manage to do this. 

then take the cash and buy bullion or PSLV and PHYS . 

maybe hold onto any good miners (like First Majestic or Eldorado or Goldcorp or SVM....IF you bought them at very low lows a long time ago.)

Find the Targets. 

Fri, Apr 6, 2012 - 11:43am
Diamond
Offline
-
Portland, ME
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
71
195

Gold is finished?

I subscribe to the Chen Lin newsletter. A part of his update this morning pained me to read: "In general miners are in great pain, especially those who need financing. The list goes on, even those who are producing like Brigus Gold Corp (BRD), Golden Star Resources, Ltd. (GSS) to name a few. My take is take some investors see the QE3 is not coming and gold is finished. Plus recently Indian jewelers had a 20 days strike to protest the increase of gold import tax. I think all these are psychological. Gold could correct further, but that should create great buying opportunities for us. I am taking pains holding these stocks, but I believe their days will come." Where he says " gold is finished," does he mean that investors just think gold is finished because of the perception of no QE3 on the horizon? Or is Chen saying that he believes that gold is finished? I don't know if I'm misreading this. I guess he must not be telling us he believes gold is finished, if he is saying that he believes the miners' days will come. So my question is, when is QE coming? And more yet, when is HUI 535 coming?

"There is a deep, abiding, unshakable satisfaction in a life of complete failure.." - Edward Abbey
Sat, Apr 7, 2012 - 5:44pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

QE or no QE ?

Experts are saying that QE has been ongoing in stealth fashion. hasnt ever stopped since last year or longer ago. just going by a different name and kept hidden.

So what isnt making the miners go up, is because of the manipulation/suppression .

 Technically , it would seem that QE wont be overtly announced until after we see a meaningful correction take place in the market. which would look like a wave down in the S+P down to test 1350 area or something like that, which is still high. last year we saw a move all the way down to 1100 area.... on the chart the 200 MA and 100 MA on the weekly chart brackets the 1200 area. thats a big fall from here. but..... its what happened last year. the miners took the blow last year....and now having been kept down, are still at those lows...how much further down can they be slammed... probably not too much...so maybe this summer will see a sideways slide for the miners. and when QE is 'introduced' (in June?) is it a time frame? or a price target (1300?) where it will start the wave going back up. Logic tells me that this will be when the miners will be given a small chance to climb back to the middle zone. My hunch is late summer and fall, or mid summer/late summer. with enough time to build up the MOPE for november election.

I'm hoping for a wave to the middle zone now, from the current lows in the mining sector....but this stream of logic is saying no....expect a sideways slide thru the next several months. if not further down until then.

all guesswork. 

The puzzle right now might be , not so much finding the timing for a wave up....but rather finding the Target for where the next top will go to....whenever it gets there, isnt so critical, april, or june, or august, or the fall....isnt important, whats important is the target . If you want to sell the miners, sell at the top zone target. Many of those sell targets are in the middle zone , they may stall in the middle zone. I expect strong resistance in the middle zone. HUI 520-535 area.

Fri, Apr 13, 2012 - 12:52am
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

Watching Eldorado gold

well, EGO had a uniquely great day with a 12% surge , a breakout move, coming off a 'bottom' at the 12.50 area

and overhead now, is alot of resistance between 15 and 16.50 area, marked by the 200 Moving average and trendlines, bollinger top zones and a few wave 4 top pivot points. 

what the wave structure looks like now ....... the sideways slide that has taken place from last december to the present..... with a low zone around 12.50-12.80 and a top zone around 15.80 .....is a wave 4 for sure. a wave 5 going down would target the 11 area, or at least 12. 12.44 recent bottom was not low enough. I dont trust it. 

 at the same time , wave 4 could still be stretching out as a ABCDE .... wave 4 .... and then wave 5 goes down to the 11 target. hard to imagine it could happen, since the miners have been destroyed so much already....but the target is there. and 12.50 for EGO , while it is at the low end....is not the lowest of bottom targets. 11 dollars is .

I mentioned a few days ago I could imagine seeing EGO making this move up to retest the wave 4 top zone around 15 and make a big whipsaw reversal there ,back down to lower lows, as wave 5 plays out.... to 12 -11 area for the full bottom. 

 The big surge breakout today looks impressive.... but thats only part 1 of a 3 part act ....the next part is to see what EGO does now as it approaches resistance at 15 - 16 dollars..... then .... to see how strong the resistance is , see price pullback, and see how strong support zone is around 14, IF 14 holds support,or not ....will be part 3 in the play. the pullback will need to hold. It could fall below 14 and hold at 13, and rally back in an upwave. or it could continue down, becoming wave 5 .....and the low bottom target becomes 11-12 area. 

 I didnt buy at 12.50 . I might have bought at 12. I would and will buy at 11 area. 

I will sell a piece maybe around 16.

Mon, Apr 16, 2012 - 3:17am
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

half way thru April now

a month ago it seemed possible we could get some kind of rally going thru April that would become a fair chance to ' sell in may '

not now.

it looks too late for that kind of wave cycle now.

maybe now, the likely set up has something to do with the timing for the next QE ,around June, and now looking at the S+P 500 starting a correction last week, which looks half done so far, it could be telling for another 6 weeks of sideways and down in markets to get to june. 

if numbers mean anything, maybe a bottom zone around 1280 -1300 S+P

and then another wave going up to target the 1480 area. that would be the wave i'm looking for, and to see miners somehow go up ,to reach whatever top zone they get to,when S+P tops..... and sell most of the miners there

Wed, Apr 18, 2012 - 5:55pm
T
Offline
Joined: Aug 10, 2011
1017
6464

logic and technical analysis

.... it seems only logical to continue being logical. 

the charts are moving along their technical patterns..... a correction in the S+P seems to be happening. TA shows another wave down to targets around 1300/1280 area. Top targets could be looking at 1480 area. that would be the completion of 5 waves from the 1010 bottom a long time ago. then TA says another correction back to a 50 % fib would be somewhere around the 1250 /1225 area. for next year...... or whenever. whatever. 

but for now, logic says watch and wait out this current correction, looking for it to finish around 1300...looking for the PPT to hold it steady at that zone. looking for QE to jump start the next wave up ...looking for miners to begrudgingly rise,and struggle, and claw their way back to some mediocre middle zone, where smart money management will decide not to be greedy, but to sell there. and be happy to break even and get out. it could take the next 6 months to achieve this.

right now, seems like a waiting time. waiting for the correction to finish and the next upwave to give some life to the miners. 

so if the S+P is correcting now, will the miners go down some more? so far they seem to be sliding down more. 

How much farther down can they go. Watching SLW....will it fall to 22?

Will AG fall to 10?

will they collapse to the absolute bottoms of 2008 crash ? before somebody decides that this is too bizarre and starts buying them back? 

Logic says they actually could fall all the way to ridiculous lows because nobody is stopping the algorithmic game,the mining companies arent fighting it, te government watchdogs are a joke, who will step in to stop the destruction. Only when somebody dedcides that SLW at 20 is a ridiculous price, or AG at 10, or EGO at 10, or SVM at 4....or wherever the disconnect from reality happens to awaken investors from their shock. In 2008 crash at the bottom....Yamana gold was at 4 dollars. Goldcorp was at 14

I could buy some GG at 14 I suppose. or 24, or 30. the next down targets for Goldcorp is 37/35 area and then 30 and then 24. but Hey, why not shoot for 15. its only logical.

Mon, Apr 23, 2012 - 11:13pm
Diamond
Offline
-
Portland, ME
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
71
195

delirious

I feel good to have gotten out of 70% of my miners last week. The rest is in Pretium, which I'm holding.

After reading this Rick Rule piece: https://www.sprottglobal.com/educational/rick-rule-market-commentary-4

...I've questioned the use of continuing to speculate in the mining sector equities. The last part of his piece tells the reader that, without question, there will still be opportunities in a select few companies. But he says the junior sector, in particular the explorers, as a whole, will bankrupt everyone.

But since getting into the shares last year, I have lost 36% of my assets. I don't want to become a frantic speculator and try as fast as I can to recoup my losses and break even, but I want to find some way to find hope, instead of the ongoing despair this sector has brought me in the last 18 months.

I'm glad to now be 70% cash in my portfolio now. I think I'll be waiting for the HUI to drop through 400 before I even think if looking for quality shares.

"There is a deep, abiding, unshakable satisfaction in a life of complete failure.." - Edward Abbey

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

randomness