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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 7:29am
ewok
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Valley Forge, PA
Joined: Mar 29, 2012
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@CK-god-silver

per ilya Spivak at dailyfx: if we break below 1634.76 (a re-test of 38.2% Fib),

targets the 50%-Fib = 1615. (GOLD). I am not an analyst; I just read alot of stuff & watch. I don't trade; I stack. Spivak's analysis is from 09:30 GMT; (5:30 AM-EDT).

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 7:36am
tonym9
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sold NUGT at 15.01 premarket

sold NUGT at 15.01 premarket for a small hicky, rotated into more AGQ. AGQ position at 54.88 now, so a hair below my desired 55.00 buy spot yesterday. Good. Content to hold here. Chart looking a little scary, but as long as we stay above 31.50ish I'm ok with this.

GTC LSO AGQ 57.10

GTC LSO JAG 4.95

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 7:41am
HappyNow
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I don't trade actual futures

So I can't participate outside NYSE hours. Often I wish I did but it probably protects me from going nuts trading on a night like we just had. Hope the bargain lasts long enough for me to snap some up at 9:30 EST.

Titus that is the most solid cyclical trade (backed by data) that I have ever seen. And I've looked at a lot of predictive models.

That work alone is making me wake up to re-think futures. Perhaps I'll contact my broker today and see what it would take.

Again good show for sifting through all the sand on the beach to find that one grain.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 7:54am
Jager06
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1884

I wonder...

I wonder what would happen to the time of day trade if a daily short on the metals was put on instead of the nightly long? I am not trading, I am just a stacker. I have to admit seeing the successes here makes me want to give trading a try, but I just don't have the time during the day!

Anyway, I was wondering if a daily short position would work similarly to the nightly long for those that do not have futures accounts like HappyNow?

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:05am
HappyNow
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Canada
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Retail gas price hike last night

In the zone where 40% of Canadians live pump prices took a jump overnight of more than 3% to the highest they have been in over a year. Higher even than when Crude was $114 a year ago.

If it is similar in the USA then intervention must be in order.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:13am
tonym9
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G, S, Eur/USD have all caught

G, S, Eur/USD have all caught up to each other on the charts. We are at equilibrium. I'm not sure how to take Draghi's comments due in 30 minutes. I'm not in touch with the news anymore. Up Down ??? Who knows.

If Draghi doesn't move the market, my guess is that we digest the Austrailian trade numbers today, shake it off, and Silver runs back to mid-high 32s. The Austrailian number should effect USD/Euro equally, so it's a wash.

I feel we should be setting up for a 33.20ish test. 

If Draghi does move the market it's anyone's guess as to which way it goes.

My money is on a successful 33.20 test soon, with digestion in low-mid 33s. I think silver holds the 31.50ish line.

WTFDIK tho.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:13am (Reply to #21190)
HappyNow
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@Turd

I am still a reader of your stuff and silver is where I play most often so Pailin's Corner is where the bulk of my banter is.

I do stack but it's not so much a topic of conversation for me as my daily/swing trades in silver.

Looking forward to Thursday's announcement. This site continues to be my premier source for everything precious metals.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:22am
Spinny
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IN
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I still have a full short

I still have a full short wti, SCO, position along with a handful of $37 SCO call options in April for a good gamble. I see further downside in the metals. 31.60 should be your line in the sand to cut losses on longs and wait for things to shake out further. I don't recommend being long to begin with but to those who are. Use caution and good position size/stop placement. Don't be the guy who cries uncle at 1580. I looking for 1600 minimum in gold and will probably be a big buyer closer to 1575. Silver has had a mind of its own lately so its difficult to determine a bottom price target. Ive been saying 29.09 for the last couple weeks but it will need to get a move on to reach that level. King dollar has made a big move and this will/has determined our short term direction. Forget twenty day cycles imo. Enjoy the ride brothers. Glad to be a part of this corner... I guess it takes a couple weeks for a avatar change to take effect. I want the monkey back :(

What is the biggest public fallacy about market behavior? That markets are supposed to make sense. ~ Richard Dennis
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:26am (Reply to #21214)
Gramp
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New England
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Not to speak out of place

Not to speak out of place here in the 'Corner', but gas at the pump just jumped... yesterday it went over 4$ gal. $4.07 /$4.09 regular. About a ten cent jump in 1 day. in New England. Ouch.

I work as a Commercial fisherman... the price of our catch is at an all time high, and the local media is beside itself reporting about it. I responded, If candy bars have more than doubled in price ( in a few short years), and fuel has gone up rapidly, why is it such a shock that our catch be of higher value?

 Not trying to lead off topic here at PTC, just a few words from "Man on the Street"

 much thanks for the insight on your trades Gents... best luck

-Gramp

~ Even a dead Fish can go with the flow ~
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:36am (Reply to #21218)
HappyNow
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Gramp thanks for confirming

Gramp thanks for confirming that the overnight hike took place in the USA as well. No surprise there.

It is the USA that will act to release reserves or some MOPE/SPIN that alters perspective if not short-term price as Canada just doesn't have the influence. Today's question is which witch will it be?

And yes I am paying "too much" for fish here in Canada too. Hahaha. It only makes sense though doesn't it. Hardly the fisherman's fault it is the result of money printing, no blame your way. Hope the media moves to bashing big oil for awhile and takes the heat off you.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:45am (Reply to #21218)
D E
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571
1935

Could be worse; could be raining...

Platinum only down 2.64%, which is better than gold being down 3%, which is better than silver being down 4.75%...copper off 2.5%...WTI off 1.34%... Looking on the bright side, perhaps I'll get to cover my dec corn short on a sloppy open? May/Dec spread out to a buck 16... Eurocrats yacking...no shortage there...WTI numbers at 10:30 nytime GLTA

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:49am
Rico
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I was wrong on GC yesterday,

I was wrong on GC yesterday, right on ZB. GC way oversold, obviously, so probable bounce, but I think lower, longer term--the EE desperately wants a losing year ​for gold, to validate their policies.

I think they are setting up CL for a world-class ass-kicking, so be careful...

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:55am
sixdollarsilver
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weeeeee

look at that you-row go!

lots of finger pointing and bailing/scuttling going on in swiss back rooms

it seems the PMs are already starting to bottom a la sell the rumour buy the fact

I'll call 1618/31.69 and buy a little more ;)

life as we know it goes on

night all

[edit - oh, and 1.31119 eur/usd]

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:57am
tonym9
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Gas prices are about refining

Gas prices are about refining capacity. We haven't opened new refineries in decades. Yes spot crude does have an effect, but if we had more reliable refining capacity gas prices would fall dramatically. Keystone is great and I love the infrastructure build, but until you increase real refining capacity (and I mean REALLY increase it) "expensive" gas is here to stay. Talk in the oil patch (houston) is $5 by mid summer as a nat'l avrg. Beating up on big oil does not solve the refining capacity problem, if anything it makes it worse. There is no incentive to spend huge sums of money (billions) attempting to build a refinery, just to fight gov't red tape and the fanning of public perception too. The more the POTUS hammers big oil, makes it difficult to improve infrastructure and creates an us vs them mentality, the bigger the pain will be at the pump. We have to get serious about tackling the real problem. Until we are truly any/all when it comes to energy, the man on the street will feel pain at the pump. Any/all means any/all....not just wind, solar and algie. We need an LNG build out for large vehicles, more wind, more panels, more coal, more crude, more refineries, more geothermal, more more more of all of the above. I'm all for clean energy, but you can't just stifle "dirty" energy growth and expect prices to stay stable without a suitable replacement. It's simple math and supply v demand for gasoline with a spritz of different blending requirements state to state.

Sorry for the rant

Draghi keeps rates at 1%....hmm. I'm not sure which way this goes. Money is on high 32s and a stab at 33.20. GLTA, have to get to work.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 8:59am
Titus Andronicus
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I guess continued weakness

I guess this is a replay of March 13/14. March 13 was the FOMC rate decision afternoon crash, now we're in the 14th.

That would mean a bounce at the open followed by continued weakness, making new lows, but not THAT much lower.

Just a guess.

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:09am
sixdollarsilver
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sounds about right titus

ag 31.50 - woops

looks like it's going to keep going until I stop buying ;)

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:13am
pailin
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31.434

That's the number I need to be full up again. At 1/2 position now :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:26am
Corsair
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Joined: Jun 14, 2011
170
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50.42

the same s3 level price for AGQ. also making me full up again. Nice to get a little break this morning via a discounted s2 price - was 53.22, but the 8am price was 53.15

Thank you Pailin! This has been the best 3 months of simple data entry trading I've had.

"The closest we get to perfection is writing our resumes."
Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:31am
sixdollarsilver
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Joined: Sep 26, 2011
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borg turn time...

or NY steps on the gas?

either or I feel we've bought some cheap metal today

definitely snooze o'clock now

Wed, Apr 4, 2012 - 9:35am
HappyNow
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Canada
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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In AGQ at Silver 31.40

25% in.

Another 25% possible if my finger gets itchy.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.

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