Pailin's Trading Corner

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Mon, Apr 2, 2012 - 11:08pm
Rico
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There are no seasonal

There are no seasonal changes. The price can, and will, do anything, at any time. Best to watch that.

Mon, Apr 2, 2012 - 11:12pm
redwood
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Actually, don't want to argue

Actually, don't want to argue over an unhelpful matter, but several studies have confirmed seasonal patterns in the metals. But this year is an election year and that changes many things. So all bets are off.

Mon, Apr 2, 2012 - 11:31pm
Titus Andronicus
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Asian bounce gold trade

CHECK THIS OUT.

I finally got around to analyzing a time-of-day trade based on buying NY afternoon after a comex close down >$5 relative to the previous day.

The results are great!

Since Jan 2010, THIS TRADE HAS NOT HAD A LOSING MONTH!

Here is the trade:

  • Wait for the Comex to close $5 or more relative to the previous close. (1:25pm EST).
  • Buy at 3pm EST.
  • Sell at 10pm EST.

It is that simple.

Here is some analysis done on a weekly basis assuming a buy of a single GC contract (100 oz gold). For this purposes, I'm going to assume a $0 return is a positive result as most likely no money was at risk for that week.

2010 Results:

  • successful 39 weeks out of 52. (75% success rate)
  • avg weekly return: $151
  • max weekly return: $1,180
  • max weekly loss: -$1,260

2011 Results:

  • successful 43 weeks out of 52. (82% success rate)
  • avg weekly return: $609
  • max weekly return: $3,550
  • max weekly loss: -$700

2012 Result (Q1):

  • successful 14 weeks out of 14. (100% success rate)
  • avg weekly return: $188
  • max weekly return: $1,900
  • max weekly loss: $0

Other things about the trade:

  • It has been steadily getting better since Jan 2010.
  • The trade is very consistent for a long period of time. When all of the days with +$5 drops were averaged over the above periods, they are amazingly consistent and similar: bottom at 3pm, top at 10pm.
  • Keep in mind the above results are done on full weeks -- not on single days. I have not analyzed this trade to find the worst daily loss! It could definitely be worse than the worst week, with the results evening out over 5 days.
  • This trade had some losing months in 2009, though it was up for the year.  I believe this may be due to the "$5" being such a large drop for the time. Maybe I'll post more about this when I know. This fact may also account for less consistent performance in 2010.

Combining with time-of-day trade:

  • This trade is especially good to combine with the gold time-of-day trade. (short 5am - 10am; long 10am - 5am).
  • There is a very strong tendency to reduce losses on otherwise losing weeks, especially for 2011 and super-especially 2012. However, the worst week of 2010 was made a bit worse by this trade.

Disclaimer:

  • Past performance is most definitely NOT a guarantee of future performance.
  • I suspect that these gold time-of-day trades are getting crowded. Make sure you understand your risk!

That's all for now. I think this is enough information to understand the risk/reward for this trade.

PS: For the time-of-day trade, I used the 5am/10am numbers for analyzing this trade within a time-of-day trade. Recently my time-of-day trade has been (roughly) going long from 8am to 9pm/12am and going short from 1:30am/2:30am to 8am.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 2:21am (Reply to #21112)
Titus Andronicus
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correction

Titus Andronicus wrote:

Here is the trade:

  • Wait for the Comex to close $5 or more relative to the previous close. (1:25pm EST).
  • Buy at 3pm EST.
  • Sell at 10pm EST.

Should be:

Here is the trade:

  • Wait for the Comex to close DOWN $5 or more relative to the previous close. (1:25pm EST).
  • Buy at 3pm EST.
  • Sell at 10pm EST.

Should be obvious, but correcting it anyways.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 2:30am
sixdollarsilver
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nice titus

thanks for all the slog back-checking this stuff, most informative

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 2:32am
sixdollarsilver
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thanks for the charts pete and strawboss

love the detail

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 4:55am
Perfidious Albion
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Titus Skillz

Thanks Mr T, been doing fairly well with the TZ-DT but as for working it out.. Skillz dude skillz

My day so far stink bids in on AG

Sell at Limit on WTI

Short on AU till London close 

Humble newbie listening and learning. A lemming doesn't last long these days..
Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 8:12am
Titus Andronicus
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Today's doublespeak

Date ET Release For Consensus Prior
Apr 3 10:00 AM Factory Orders Feb NA -1.0%
Apr 3 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 3/13 - -
Apr 3 2:00 PM Auto Sales Mar NA 5.5M
Apr 3 2:00 PM Truck Sales Mar NA 5.9M
Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 8:43am (Reply to #21096)
D E
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Travis Bickle

Love "Taxi Driver"...make my kids watch it (older ones) so they are not too blithe about being out & about in NYC..also elections and policies have consequences... Looking for more volatility in WTI today & tomorrow due to numbers & more economic news...flat now...small long in may silver, July pl...short dec corn GLTA

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 8:59am (Reply to #21109)
Rico
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redwood wrote: Several

redwood wrote:

Several sources suggest May will see a downturn. This expected rally might extend out to June, but then that gets us into the seasonal changes. This miner's market is volatile daily, weekly, and now seasonally. 

Outlook cloudy--ask again later...

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 9:59am
SSK
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Daily highs all in the first

Daily highs all in the first minute of trading? Did you catch them? Not unless you are a human HFT machine. Which Pailin might actually be!

Rug pulled from under us. Again.

NGD puked half its gains from yesterday.

So the GDX churns back in the clump of candles. It's got to close over 51 to fill the gap.

So, the question is, is this a buying opportunity? Are we confident enough that the bottom is in to buy the dips like presented this morning? I have. NGD at 9.99 and NUGT at 16.50.

Just sold my remaining LNG for 15.95. Ka-ching. Going to look at the short side of LNG now. 

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 10:16am (Reply to #21120)
D E
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Fed Heads Up

Minutes due out 2pm nytime. Cannot be in front of screen for couple of hours, so out if silver until I get back. Minutes friendly=PMs up; if not, PMs down. IMO fwiw glta

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 10:19am
SilverWealth
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SSK

Granny watching ES. GDX will go nowhere up without it initiating and sustaining, same for Silver.

Metals remain as the Colonoscopy bag tied around the bulging waistline of the SPX.

Watching most reliable trade, LNG. The Bai Ling trade. The one that can run on its own independent of a thousand different variables and co-dependencies... a break over 16 and it can still run to highes, a definite BTFD candidate worthy of its name. In honor of it its time for some exotic viewing...

https://www.starpulse.com/Actresses/Ling,_Bai/gallery/ZHA-000007/

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 10:46am
SilverWealth
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Granny

Granny does not know but if UCO is BTFD, that nasty little girl Bai Ling could make her move...

Granny and Dolf look forward to the day sometime over the next 100 years where GDX trades independent of its host, SPX. She could be long dead before this happens. Ole Man Rhino Horn seems to think the time is close...then again, prognostications are not tradeable.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 10:50am (Reply to #21118)
BlackHawk
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@D E about corn

Quote:
short dec corn

I only trade CORN ETF since I am trading an IRA acct. I'm long since Friday.

Des Moines is 85 F. today and 30 degrees above ave. temp. They got half the snow they normally get this winter. Bottom line, high probability of drought conditions this summer IMHO, lower 2012 crop yield.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 10:53am (Reply to #21120)
BlackHawk
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@SSK what about VLO?

BTFD?

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 10:56am
SilverWealth
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a new Media low

Is it possible that we have yet another low in Media schlock?

Andrea Mitchell beggin H. Clinton to run for President. Two bridge trolls hobnobbing and cackling. Neither one has any intelligence or function. Both are whores that hang from the nipple of the Queen Whore, Celebrititus. To think that H. Clinton, a moron who has all the charisma of a black hole and the hooker- who -hooked- the -hooker Greenspan feature themselves in this slime fest interview makes it nearly impossible to hold down breakfast.

Can one imagine that if condemned to Hell the first sight seen would be a large telescreen hanging over the River Styx running and re-running the Clintons and Greenspans in a wifeswapping orgy, no holds barred. Little would be more horrific.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 11:02am
redwood
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Gees SW, who knew all that

Gees SW, who knew all that about Hillary? I'm obviously not informed.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 11:08am
SSK
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Blackhawk, Refiners are a

Blackhawk,

Refiners are a tough niche market. You've got to understand crack spreads and supply issues. You need to know what types of oil Sunoco refines as opposed to Valero or Tesoro and trace the status of that source. That said, they trade just like any other stock, and if you can catch a dip, go for it. VLO is the best of the bunch. TSO the worst. And VLO is getting hammered today. 

SW,

LNG has put in a two day 7% gain. Again. I've cashed in. I will be looking to short at the first sign of a lower high. Once it fails to push higher, it always fails and corrects to a 3.5% retraction. You are so right about LNG trading independent of any variable. LNG is its own little world. And it's a happy little world indeed.

Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 11:15am (Reply to #21126)
BlackHawk
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Can one imagine?

Ayn Rand is there to watch, a fist full of social security checks in hand that she didn't have time to cash.

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