are here. they're there. they're everywhere.
ivars ~~ 30 on those Ag charts going to hold this MF'ing CME aFFair?
Again, only from my chart here:
It shows a dip towards 30USD starting now (yesterday) and may be dipping below 30 a bit (MAY BE 28?) but only for a comparatively brief period - is seems so, next week. Than it shoots back to 35 still in late November .
Just a derivative from my previous charts.
I spent a good deal of time cleaning up this forum - I've tried to remove any and all posts not related to direct commentary on the actual charts. From now on, unless a member is posting statistics either supporting or refuting the chart, or providing some type valuable commentary, their post will be removed. If your not a chart fan, don't bother letting us know. If you want to continue the petty bickering, take it to PM.
We want to build a community where folks can contribute freely without being attacked - constructive critiquing and questions leading to productive discussion is always welcome.
Also, if we find that members are being harassed over private message then those doing the harassment will have their accounts blocked - so keep that in mind.
I am only sorry a few valid comments/questions got tossed to the curb along with the rest of the stuff that was just cleaned up, apologies to those few affected - but line-by-line editorializing is NOT something we have time for.
Until people start releasing the stranglehold they seem to think is necessary to be placed around their conversation partners' throats, very little of substance will ever get done.
The 'policy' is really quite simple:
a) don't troll
b) don't feed the trolls
Today, 1,6 trillion USD of US Treasuries is owned by FED. About 11% of total USA debt.
I have a question to all the clever guys and girls here in connection with USA debt crash chart:
What happens ( some day in future) if the USA treasury defaults only (for a starter) on the treasuries it owes the FED?
As I understand, FED balance sheet will shrink, so will USA debt.
Will such an "internal" default affect USD value against other currencies?
Thank You in advance.
Perhaps you can add: Please keep comments civil and especially non-inflammatory, whether one agrees or not.
This is a question that Congressman Ron Paul keeps presenting to the public, and of course there is much resistance by the media as Ron Paul often is not even mentioned as a running contender for the presidency, even though he is gaining considerable popularity. The reasons of course are political and therefore economic. Here is a link that might help.
I am not really in to what ifs or what happens. Rather spreading the solution.
Defaulting/Bankruptcy immediately and moving to a sound free market money system where a nations money supply is issued directly by the treasury debt free is the only true answer. I doubt we will ever see that again. If we do it will be a happy day and the hard medicine of a decision like that would be more than welcome in contrast to what we have now.
In regards to what ifs or what happens, all we can do is prepare accordingly. Someday the Central Banks of the world will collapse under their own weight and the evil global elite powers that be will be right there waiting in the wings with more hegelian dialectic BS.
Though I was interested in (in my opinion) specific partial default- default on the USA Treasuries owed to the USA Federal Reserve. May be there is no big difference to whom to default, but I would like to find out.
It would make sense - a gradual default, as it would not be in China's best interest, among many for anything to happen precipitously. Even gold and silver that are quite volatile, one can see that the average rise per year falls within constraints. Clearly the global economic picture is being orchestrated quite carefully, so as to not trigger excessive panic.
I have been mentioning the USA default in end of 2015-beginning of 2016 here:
However, in initial post about this issue, I was speaking about US debt correction, that is distributed haircut of around 3 trillion USD in 2013-2014:
Here is the chart that supports that initial view. Its a fit of certain pre-crash behaviour model. How it is produced, is explained here:
So its earlier than I was saying lately. Lately I was talking of a full scale default, but it looks like it will be gradual, and the first one will happen very soon. To be honest, I forgot about my first idea-but usually they are the most accurate. So some assumptions following it will have to be reworked.
It happnes ( the correction of US debt (sharp reduction) on end of September 2013. May be even few months earlier.
1) The distribution of haircuts of such partial US default
2) consequences for USD rate to currencies
3) consequences for USD rate to commodities
4) consequences for USD rate to gold, silver ( i will dig into my charts on this)
Oops, on the chart, Date is years from 1950. In fact, the growth of unsustainable debt started with abandoning of gold standard in 1970ties. So this bubble has a history and represents impact of decisions made along 40 years of history of the USA.
I do not think China or anyone else then FED will be directly affected. Indirectly - I have got no answers to my questions ( except the one in the link below).
I think we are looking at what Ron Paul had suggested- that FED keeps buying Treasuries again for some time ( e.g. when Obama is reelected) , up to 3-5 trillion- then has no other choice as to forgive (i.e . government defaults) on them after 1 year in late 2013 (may be earlier?) I still have to look into other charts if it makes sense. Something can be done about it, as described here in Econbrowser:
Interesting, how new things pop up , and find their place in future models.
The fact that USA will correct its debt with FED does not exclude following "real" defaults and inflation later.
Ivars wrote:I do not think China or anyone else then FED will be directly affected.
So why is that China is getting prepared not only buying hard assets with USD but they are getting ready for war long term. Now, if the FED is the only affected directly why they keep printing knowing that they won't see that money anymore?
China has signed a lot of free trades contract around the world, specially with the countries that provide raw materials:
Chile=Cooper and derivates metals
Colombia= Coffee, Grains, etc
Argentina=Grains, Meat, etc...
Peru and Mexico=Silver, Gold and other metals...
China has been dumping from sometime US treasures and US dollars, because they know US will tell them 'we got no money now' so Chinese are trying to reduce the loss.
Now FED is owned by biggest central banks, it means the elites. Are they taking the big loss here?
Thank you Ivars as always.
You might find a short clip of this of video of interest and importance. Mike Maloney here discusses the relationship between the Fed, bonds and treasuries. Starts at @ 22.20 minutes. The entire video is very good but long.
Yes, the unsustainable debt started with the decoupling of gold to the dollar. Dr. Ron Paul (he is a former surgeon) has been battling this problem for 40 years. He is regularly excluded from media coverage. This video is very funny, but also quite distressing about media manipulation.
I think it might be important to some readers how you approach your work; I certainly find it very interesting. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Your charts are derived from fairly sophisticated mathematical equations, drawn from previous crash events, which implicitly include "spontaneous" and therefore unpredictable events, as well as dynamics that normally determine the market's behavior. In a sense the "graph" already forecasts the multitude of factors that will influence market behavior.
So when you say "interesting how new things that pop up find their place in future models", this is exactly true. Your questions to the readers are often about the dynamics of economics and politics that help you to account for the model you have already designed. It is a backward looking approach, not forward, which is the conventional way.
This is why people say you can't predict in advance all the variables that can influence your graphs. This is not true. What needs to be fine tuned is your fuller grasp of the geopolitical environment so that you can decide what alterations you need to make to your equations.
If this is accurate, you can see why your approach is both novel, but also quite advanced. Hopefully a more collaborative effort can help all of us.
The more I look at US debt crash correction and future gold/silver charts,
the more I feel that defaults of USA treasury to FED will happen in discrete (DISCRETE as in DISCRETE scale, not as in discrete presence) way starting from November 2012,->and that is the reason of Gold price connection with this election cycle, visible here:
then FED buys more, then Treasury defaults again etc. It will be kind of a new "permanent" way of handling country debt and monetary issues combined.
I just wander what other consequences it will bring to USD value ( vs.commodities, other currencies), will it become fashionable way to handle part of debt in every country (except Europe where partial debt corrections happens country by country as there are no local central banks). Than of course every countries currency will devaluate in a similar manner to the USD except that USD will still be sitting on bank balance sheets even if they will receive a default in JPY ( e.g. Japan). So despite US correcting its debt to FED , USD still will have the longest (one of the longest ) lifetimes among currencies. The currencies that can outdo USD will be those where total government debt and other debt in the economy is small relative to GDP.
Also, does it MEAN Ron Paul can make it to president? Or his idea will be stolen by Obama?
"Congressmen and Presidential hopeful Ron Paul, who chairs the House sub-committee on monetary affairs says the Fed should not be holding this “ficitious” debt any longer against US tax payers."
What needs to be fine tuned is your fuller grasp of the geopolitical environment so that you can decide what alterations you need to make to your equations.
EXACTLY. And economical dynamic interactions. You have come to essence. Can You help me? There is information overflow...
The Video about 20 000 USD gold-thanks, I will watch it hopefully today.
As a conclusion form charts - and some medicine with inflation later...
Commodity prices are moving so slowly that cash hoarding is becoming the preferred status-and will lead to recession soon: