Ivar's Charts

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#1 Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 6:49am
ivars
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Ivar's Charts

How volatile times and crashes make long term forecasting possible, what are the resulting prediction charts, and implications from them. I hope most of charts will be there.

Edited by: ivars on Dec 1, 2014 - 9:00pm
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:00am
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Gold prices 2012-2017

102

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:01am
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Silver prices 2011-2017

105

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:03am
ivars
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EUR/USD 2011-2018

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:04am
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US debt accumulation and default 2011-2016

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:07am
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DJIA 20081929 overlay with QE effect identified-till 2014

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:09am
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QE addition to share prices post 2008, in %

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:10am
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Superexponential addition and need from QE to keep stock prices

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:12am
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ICE Brent crude 1M 2011-2013

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:14am
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Nasdaq 1999-2022 Nikkei 1987- 2012 overlay- interesting 2018

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:16am
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USDX 2012-2018

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:17am
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GSR 2002----2012-2017

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:29am
DanH
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Thanks Ivars!

It's a great idea to post your charts here! I'll be sure to check regularly!

Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 7:55am
Chris P. Bacon
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Thanks for the effort Ivars

+1

Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 9:37am
MollyRatchet
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Thanks Ivars

Great Job as always !!!

MR

Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 11:20am
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Greece Athens DJIA overlay till 2017 inflation (=real depegging)

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 11:39am
redwood
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Ivars

Hi Ivars,

I have recently come across Sornette's work "why stock markets crash". Am I right that you have been considerably influenced by this writer? If so, it helps to explain your approach to your work, since it departures so much from more conventional forms of prediction.

Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 4:57pm
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Housewarming welcome

Thanks for compiling a collection, will try to study as time allows.

@redwood - here is a recent paper by Sornette & Johansen on population and economic growth (which I have not yet read, and cannot until 2morrow, as my eyes are seeping out of their sockets at the moment due to too-much monitor time) - curious to your and Ivars' thoughts. A sample of one of the possible scenarios (it seems they're not all THAT bad, but positive outcomes involve interplanetary colonisation, for instance):

"The participants issued a statement, signed by representatives of 58 academies on population issues related to development, notably on the determinants of fertility and concerning the effect of demographic growth on the environment and the quality of life.

The statement finds that “continuing population growth poses a great risk to humanity,” and proposes a demographic goal: “In our judgment, humanity’s ability to deal successfully with its social, economic, and environmental problems will require the achievement of zero population growth within the lifetime of our children” and “Humanity is approaching a crisis point with respect to the interlocking issues of population, environment and development because the Earth is finite” [45]. Possible scenarios involve a systematic development of terrorism and the segregation of mankind into at least two groups, a minority of wealthy communities hiding behind fortresses from the crowd of “barbarians” roaming outside, as discussed in a recent seminar at the US National Academy of Sciences. Such a scenario is also quite possible for the relation between developed and developing countries." https://xxx.lanl.gov/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/0002/0002075v4.pdf
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 5:38pm (Reply to #17)
ivars
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@redwood Sornette

Yes, its true. I am still trying to understand the math (renormalization group-complex exponents. brrr) , but I already use the log-periodic signatures to single out potential long term crashes.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Oct 28, 2011 - 9:08pm
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Jy896

Thank you for that link. Without even knowing it I c/p'ed some of the same material on the main board. It was quite illuminating to witness the derivation of said formulas to predict the evolution of "crashes" using population and GDP parameters, based on many crash cycles throughout the world over many decades. The concept of man having possibily entered a transition phase with an impending new regime is indeed what we all feel at an unconscious level. The solutions appear daunting, but certainly explains the shift of industry from developed to developing countries, among others. I will probably be referring back to this article at several points. Thank you again.

Sat, Oct 29, 2011 - 2:12am
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New forum

Good stuff,Ivars. Keep up the good work.