Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:52pm (Reply to #6925)
Sockeye
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CYM wrote: The time to short

CYM wrote:

The time to short was last week Monday, Tuesday, and/or Wednesday. Shorting now is crazy. Wait for the bottom then go long. If you want to short something, short financials.

I respectfully disagree. It is never too late to short silver. The Point & Figure Target is $16. a point and figure person who wants that target would find this early to short. the market only went from a long to a short bias on thursday and friday. It has just begun. 

All trading is dangerous. but I believe that in general shorts hold less risk then longs because the market always drops faster than it goes up. so you have the risk on for a shorter time. thus you hold less risk on a short. The markets are always offering opportunity. Right now the opportunity is to go with the trend and the trend is now DOWN.

The time to short was last week Monday, Tuesday, and/or Wednesday.

I disagree because back then the trend was still up. a trader should only made trades with the trend. Now the trend is Down. so it is now time to go short. 

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:56pm
sp001
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silver is acting like equity

silver is acting like equity market right now....at the open, dollar down right now -0.60%, spy up 1.08%, silver up 1.16%, gold struggling at 0.1%

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:59pm (Reply to #6929)
sp001
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if u believe we r in a

if u believe we r in a downtrend (daily MA all turnin now) then why would u short silver right here with RSI so low? wouldnt u wait for a bounce first to clear oversold conditions?

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:08pm (Reply to #6922)
RedRover
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North Conway, NH
Joined: Jun 19, 2011
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Re: Potential Swing Trade: Any Thoughts?

Definite Maybe,

re: your proposed Dec/ Jan puts. Your price point could very well be accurate,
but I'd expect it to be in a short term time-frame (within the next week or 2). People
will buy at these rock bottom prices and I anticipate us heading right back up.

I mean, c'mon.. Hunt Brothers it reached $47.80. Inflation adjusted
that is $131.12 & you want to do a semi-long term put? You asked for
opinions and I wouldn't do it b/c QE to infinity is the gov's only solution.

For arguments sake.. why are you thinking this way?
What's your rationale? For what it's worth, I anticipate
gold and silver to reach major highs by 1/2012.

Cheers!

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:11pm (Reply to #6929)
CYM
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Sockeye wrote: CYM wrote: The

Sockeye wrote:
CYM wrote:

The time to short was last week Monday, Tuesday, and/or Wednesday. Shorting now is crazy. Wait for the bottom then go long. If you want to short something, short financials.

I respectfully disagree. It is never too late to short silver. The Point & Figure Target is $16. a point and figure person who wants that target would find this early to short. the market only went from a long to a short bias on thursday and friday. It has just begun. 

All trading is dangerous. but I believe that in general shorts hold less risk then longs because the market always drops faster than it goes up. so you have the risk on for a shorter time. thus you hold less risk on a short. The markets are always offering opportunity. Right now the opportunity is to go with the trend and the trend is now DOWN.

The time to short was last week Monday, Tuesday, and/or Wednesday.

I disagree because back then the trend was still up. a trader should only made trades with the trend. Now the trend is Down. so it is now time to go short. 

I'm not saying it won't go down further, I just don't think it has much more to fall. I freely admit I could be completely wrong, because these markets are completely broken right now. Intraday shorting might work, but I still wouldn't do it. I'm sticking with shorting financials. I've been playing FAZ/FAS for months now with good results. The financial problems have not been resolved and until they are I will continue to short them on every rally.

YMMV... Good Luck =)

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:14pm (Reply to #6930)
Dr G
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@sp001

Silver up 1.16%? I show it down almost 2%

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:23pm (Reply to #6934)
CYM
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7:22pm est Netdania spot down

7:22pm est

Netdania spot down ~2%

Finviz futures up ~1%

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:41pm (Reply to #6935)
D E
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571
1935

Go Green?

Seeing some green tonight in gold, silver, oil, copper, corn and rice. Might be Uncle Rubber, might be Granny's canasta club, but it doesn't look like panic selling due to margin calls. Kudos to short sellers last week, but this week just starting...

Just sayin'

GLTA

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:43pm
Eric Original
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Beemer

Welcome aboard!

To post youtubes just find the one you want, copy the link, and paste into the comment box.

We'll be looking to you for some good BBQ recipes...

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:44pm (Reply to #6937)
beemer
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cookeville, TN
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WILL DO

Thanks very much Eric

Brenda miller
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:44pm
DefiniteMaybe
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Comments Regarding Chart Analysis: Thanks!

Thanks for the comments guys. I really appreciate the critical look at this potential trade. This is the reason why I came here.

@41: Wow, if the prices drops to that level that quick, then I will certainly be going long after the dust settles. What's my rationale regarding this trade? That I would go short once there is a bounce around this level. That is, if there is a bounce similar to '08 as it went down below $9.

@atlee: There is a reason you have so many hat tips. And I am glad you chimed in. (I didn't realize Keith R was a trader as well cool.)

DrG: We're on the same wavelength.

@SP: Exactly, I would wait for a short term bounce before going short.

Some clarification: No, I wasn't going to jump into this shark tank tomorrow buying SLV Puts. Maybe the '08 scenario I have in mind is playing out a lot faster now since countries are going bankrupt and not just companies.

As an aside, I will hold my SPY Puts as I expect that ship to go DOWN.

Please feel free to comment. I would rather pay with a verbal "dressing down" of my wrongful ways then to pay with FRN.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 7:47pm
RedRover
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North Conway, NH
Joined: Jun 19, 2011
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no green that i see: where are you looking?

DE & SP001,

I am not seeing any green in PM's @ all

7:43 pm est

silver 30.53 (-.40 | -1.29%)

gold 1645 (-11.80 | - .71%)

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 8:10pm (Reply to #6940)
D E
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571
1935

globex

dec silver open 30.85 high 30.925 around 7:50 pm edt

now 30.575, but I just got out of the shower

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 8:20pm (Reply to #6940)
D E
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571
1935

might have been right about gold

globex dec gold open 1660; high 1664.30 a few minutes ago

oops!...just got off the crapper...high 1666.30

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 8:46pm
CK
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santa monica, CA
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
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Silver at $30 is the most

Silver at $30 is the most obvious long term buy ever. Doesn't mean it can't fall to $25 or even $20 or less... it just means it would be a buy there as well.

Stack physical. Maybe some long term hail mary options if you're willing to add to them if/when they lose value.

Good luck - watch the Crossing MA's :)

Btw- I'd clearly think it's time to wait for this market to calm down before getting involved in leveraged paper. We don't know how ugly this can really get yet.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 8:55pm
Silver_Watchdog
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'Dexia bank prepared to sell

'Dexia bank prepared to sell £12.58 billion in assets': Beware as this could include gold/silver assets.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 9:05pm
Rico
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I'm sure Dexia would sell

I'm sure Dexia would sell their PMs--I just don't know if they have any

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 9:21pm (Reply to #6945)
Silver_Watchdog
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If the paper market is

If the paper market is leveraged 100:1, then that's an overwhelming amount of trading power.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 9:31pm (Reply to #6944)
pailin
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Silver_Watchdog wrote: 'Dexia

Silver_Watchdog wrote:

'Dexia bank prepared to sell £12.58 billion in assets': Beware as this could include gold/silver assets.

This is how it starts getting cute, when banks sell assets and they forget they're "custodians" not owners! Maybe not Dexia, but if this is the way it's going to be I think we will see the headline (maybe only on ZH though) where a Big Bank is being sued because their bullion vault was emptied to satisfy a big counterparty claim (like China CB or India CB or Russia CB or ???) and the actual little guy unallocated (!) owners got cashed out "fair value" in fiat at closing spot price of the day. Or better yet the bank zeroes the mortgage they also hold for the customer and hands the title back to the now ex-gold owner. Ya know, that underwater mortgage :)

All of a sudden you own "in full" a crappy house you can't liquidate easily (or even fairly value) in exchange for the most liquid of all assets...physical bars of gold/silver. If you're in Europe, you might have even been allowed to secure the mortgage by putting the metal up as collateral to begin with...never thinking it would get called away from you. Call me nuts, but...

Get me?

Sorry for going OT but it just struck me how easily it all could just slide in that direction pretty fast.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 9:34pm
SSK
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Failure to short the bounces

Failure to short the bounces going forward (especially the miners) is to bet against the near term trend. Which is profoundly bearish.

I see a five percent bounce, I short.

Trapped longs are still hanging on. They are looking for any chance to get the hell out. Weak hands will undercut any sizeable bounce in the near term. Just look at the chart from fall 2008. Let history be your guide.

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