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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:15pm
NCOT
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Small punt on Silver long and

Small punt on Silver long and oil long, Silver 35.05 and WTI at 90.30

Both breathing and moved stops to B/E so as long as they trigger, no loss.

All I got to do now is take profit!

Just small change again but need to get a feel... (as it were)..

Any information written above is purely for entertainment purposes only. I will not be held responsible for my own comments as I'm slightly mentally unhinged. As most people quote a movie in their signature here's one: "Who's the more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him?" . Don't be the fool that follows me!
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:17pm
atlee
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this is a good spot I think

I think if you get under 1520 again in gold, you can buy it with a stop at 1510.. Obviously the closer to the stop out position the better. Lowers the risk. If Gold closes below 1511 we are going to 1460 to 70. IMO

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:22pm (Reply to #742)
JoeKa
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Your trade

The range of your trade - if ur looking for fast targets is likely at the cusp of NY GLOBEX close, before twilight zone and Sydney open period. IMHO For Gold, agree that long now is good entry point. Possible further down at 1513 exists but unlikely at least for rest of today.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:25pm (Reply to #744)
NCOT
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thanks JoeKa.. I always

thanks JoeKa.. I always notice that between the NYSE close and Globex close (about 1 hour) there's a slow decline in silver.

As I typed, Silver stopped and I closed wti...

Any information written above is purely for entertainment purposes only. I will not be held responsible for my own comments as I'm slightly mentally unhinged. As most people quote a movie in their signature here's one: "Who's the more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him?" . Don't be the fool that follows me!
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:35pm (Reply to #745)
JoeKa
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Range

It could be also that it finishes up max at the low .20s going into Sydney then there til rest of Asia retesting the lows for today, 34.85 was it? Possibly dropping slightly outta of the 35s til London opens. Sorry am not looking at precise charts, just kitco. Pls stay safe. There's a real viciousness to the algos today. The industrial metals are being killed.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:35pm
Snaggle Tooth
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Atlee, when you close you short position??

Hey Atlee, I'm still short too. I figured if Atlee is brave enough to ride it out the last few days I would too :-)
When you thinking of closing your short? I'll probably take my money and run if we hit low $34s.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:35pm (Reply to #746)
NCOT
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Thanks, staying out for

Thanks, staying out for now.

I'm trying to avoid open positions while I should be sleeping, that way I actually get to sleep!

Globex closes at 10:15 pm my time and kicks of at 11pm, which is when I like to hit the hay. So might leave it til tomorrow... no hurry...

24hr tradings a killer.

Any information written above is purely for entertainment purposes only. I will not be held responsible for my own comments as I'm slightly mentally unhinged. As most people quote a movie in their signature here's one: "Who's the more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him?" . Don't be the fool that follows me!
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:39pm
l'idiot du village
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I'm with mr atlee

1470 ish would give this trade the Scale and probability that would Warrant a nice heavy placing. Worth the risk of not making a few Coppers and simultaneously Avoiding untimely burial.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:43pm
atlee
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snaggle I am waiting to see

snaggle

I am waiting to see if we break hard to downside. (33 or lower) I am short silver from higher levels. Probably stay that way and start nibbling at some long old positions

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:47pm (Reply to #747)
JoeKa
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Instead of one persons own stand

Try and understand what the pivots are saying. Both classic and FIBO on the H5 and Daily are placing some emphasis on 35.00, 34.84 and then 34.34 Have you considered progressive profit redemption as an option? As opposed to all marbles in and all marbles out... I'm sharing this so that you feel more empowered as opposed to being overly reliant. All the best and good trade.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:47pm
NCOT
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moving goal posts

Just noticed my spread on WTI has increased by 1 point from 3 to 4.

Mind you, the rate oil is moving, blink and its moved 10c anyway!

Any information written above is purely for entertainment purposes only. I will not be held responsible for my own comments as I'm slightly mentally unhinged. As most people quote a movie in their signature here's one: "Who's the more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him?" . Don't be the fool that follows me!
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 12:50pm (Reply to #751)
atlee
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Joeka Great post. A true

Joeka

Great post. A true trader. If I were getting in or out that is how I always do it.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 1:05pm
gh9622
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Four significant raids that

Four significant raids that bottomed at 1517, 1515, 1515, and 1517. If they are going to push it lower, I guess it won't be until this evening. Not sure if the Asian/Indian markets are interested at these levels or waiting for ~1500. I put some calls in at 1518. I like gold holding around these levels. Silver? Not so much. 34 is where I would be tempted to buy.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 1:30pm
l'idiot du village
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Pivot points

@jokeka I'm really enthralled with your TA methods And ideas, although a lot of it is way over my Head, especially now. It's like I'm just learning The pawn en peasant while you're deciding Which version of nimbi-Indian defence your Gonna beat me with ! That's why improvising Fills in the gaps. I'm drawn to 1470 because It's firstly opportune, it's a little seasonal, The pgm's are weak and so are stocks. To Complete the list I'd probably add investor Fatigue, and the fact that I'm a confirmed dip Player . My Brain is in hyperdrive cos I don't Like being beaten during the opening moves, So that means getting stronger each game.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:01pm
Sterling
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Miner's rallying into the

Miner's rallying into the close today

Can I offer you a drink? How about this expensive prostitute?
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 6:01pm (Reply to #697)
33 and a turd
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To add to Atlees's FX sites,

To add to Atlees's FX sites, for anyone who is interested, I would also add www.forexlive.com.

They have live news and live commentary and also get and publish information from the FX banks on bids and offers.

A nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people. John F. Kennedy
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 8:30pm
CK
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Word is to stay away from

Word is to stay away from going long on gold/silver until september. Start shorting the S & P after it goes up IMO.

Be patient with your money till september and you will be very rewarded. I wouldn't be surprised if gold is trading at 1400-1450 in late july or august. It will be a september to remember :)

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 9:28pm
JoeKa
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CK

Word from who?

And also: "stay away from going long on gold/silver until september."

Well someone clearly forgot to post the memo to everyone buying into this dip which stopped (temporarily) Silver crashing into the 33s and Gold below 1500s eh? =P

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 9:31pm (Reply to #759)
CK
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An ex ceo of an oil company

An ex ceo of an oil company that is an insider. Take it or leave it, but I'm giving the warning. I think buying the huge dips is smart as long as you take your profits. Physical is always smart as well.

September is when I very aggressively go long paper.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 9:31pm
JoeKa
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Casey

I'm usually too lazy to post stuff outside of this thread, so here's another non-trading related post. This is from the latest Casey Daily Dispatch. If you're not signed up and you're interested in metals and miners investing, you should sign up.

---------------------------------------

Casey Daily Dispatch - THU Jun 23

By Vedran Vuk

There are a lot of news stories surrounding Bernanke's press conference yesterday. In my opinion, he didn't say much that we don't already know. Rather than attempt to discern his economic outlook from vague statements, I want to touch on a few major slip-ups in his talk. As I've noted in the past, even the most careful person can't make it through an hourlong press conference without some mistakes.

The first quote has been reported in several major news outlets. At about 10:20 in the conference, Bernanke stated, "We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting." I see two problems here. First, this statement should scare everyone from a Ph.D. economist to an average guy on the street without a clue about the Federal Reserve: Bernanke has just admitted his cluelessness.

Second, if Bernanke can't explain the growth slowdown, then what does that mean for his unemployment and inflation projections accompanying the press conference? The charts point to falling inflation and unemployment. Isn't it a bit hard to forecast unemployment when one doesn't even understand growth in the present?

Further in the press conference, one journalist asks about the trajectory of future rates - whether they will rise suddenly or gradually. Bernanke say that he can't say for sure as the situation is constantly changing. Well, if Bernanke doesn't know, how can he possibly forecast lower inflation? To get lower inflation, he must necessarily raise rates - hence, that's a bit of a contradiction.

The next quote is my favorite, and comes at about 25:15 in: "It's only been two years since we've had the worst financial crisis certainly since the Great Depression, possibly the history of the United States." That's a serious mess-up. How are the bailouts and the near-zero interest rates defended every time? It's usually something like, "If extraordinary actions weren't taken, we'd be in another Great Depression." According to Bernanke, the recent financial crisis was possibly the worst in "the history of the United States."

Let's clarify that - not the second-worst financial crisis, but possibly the worst. Yes, number one.

At another relevant part of the press conference (16:45), Bernanke responds to a journalist inquiring about the effects of immediate deficit cuts. According to the journalist, some view this as a route toward job creation. Bernanke responds with, "In the very short run, fiscal tightening is at best neutral and probably somewhat negative for job creation."

This is an honest academic opinion. It is not the position of left-wing political ideologues who act as if the sky would fall down with reduced spending. According to Bernanke, there could be a little job loss or perhaps nothing at all.

The last notable remark was at the 45:00 mark. Bernanke points out that there was a one-third chance of deflation prior to the decision for QE2. Really, that's it? Was the further destruction of the dollar and the extraordinary rise in commodity prices worth avoiding a one-third chance of deflation? I hardly think so.

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