Silver Wheaton (SLW)

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Tue, Jun 21, 2011 - 5:15pm
Got Silver
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I learned my lesson

I have been an investor in SLW for the past three years. I have bought and sold it on the way up and made money. I bought my rather large last position at $42.00. (Ugh). I also averaged down as the price dropped. I should have just kept my original positions, would have a nice profit and also capital gains.

I remember watching a company presentation where the then Chairman Barnes stated they have two uses for the money the company is now generating. They can do new, very discriminating deals or pay out the money in dividends. I am betting they will be increasing their dividend. Right now they are waiting for the Gold Corp property to come fully on stream.

I am holding for the long term.

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 11:39am
Silvergunn
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Todays action

It seems to me that it might be range bound for the rest of the day (although just broke to the upside of this MA analysis?). After the gap up this week I saw how the 263 DMA was what has been guiding it lately and this is a tick below the low today. The 10 min chart has it 2 ticks off the low today, with the 5 min chart it is at right now $32.19, after breaching and failing?

lets see how this plays out now?

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 3:48pm (Reply to #23)
Sterling
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And we're up.  Hopefully will

And we're up. Hopefully will close in the green

Can I offer you a drink? How about this expensive prostitute?
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 5:19pm (Reply to #21)
Coryst
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RE: Cyclic analysis of SLW#2

Thank for the info. I have downloaded the 30 day trial, but I am having difficulty using the ninja trader to load the EOD data to import into the Sentient.

I am very interested in this software once I understand how to use it. Any chance I could talk to you on the phone about it, as I would like to discus the software in more depth.

You can email me privately @ coryst[at]shaw[dot]ca if you are open to it.

Cheers,

Cory

Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 10:55am (Reply to #24)
Silvergunn
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Action 6/23-24th

Sterling wrote:

And we're up. Hopefully will close in the green

I didn't expect that closing rally yesterday and left for the afternoon so didn't see it either.

Now it is back below the 263 (1 min)MA after using it for support up until it fell through it and then didn't like the taste of it and now has pulled back to that area where I was commenting on the resistance yesterday. Now this area is showing support?

Fun stuff...

Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 11:50pm
Lonerangersilver
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SLW will go higher

Nice screencast. I bought SLW at $43 and it has been painful. The charts support a higher price and the fundamentals are good and when we hit September it will go higher than the charts indicate. Meanwhile we have to put up with the summer doldrums. I am buying physical on the dips

Lonerangersilver
Thu, Jul 28, 2011 - 3:16pm
Rear Flank Downdraft
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Getting Pummeled....

Anyone care to hazard a guess as to why? It's hard to rely on any one influencer or bank on anything we used to count as a fundamental to get a sense of where things might go.

Sure, you have to factor in the debt ceiling pageant, but, I mean all the miners seem to be taking it on the chin at the most inopportune times, G and S have been struggling valiantly around what seem to be psychological supports of 1600 and 40, but one day you can look at them and they are taking off.......and miners get spanked.

Anyone doing anything with SLW to hedge losses or are you mainly holding on and waiting for the maelstrom to pass? Selling calls or puts right now?

Thu, Jul 28, 2011 - 4:26pm
madcow
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just wishin i had more money

just wishin i had more money to buy more shares right now is all im doin

Sat, Jul 30, 2011 - 12:23am
bbdgoco
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You're right Rear Flank Downdraft, getting pummeled

It took a big hit this week when they revised production for the remainder of 2011. This was due to a production shortfall at Gold Corp's Penasquito mine in Mexico. You can read about it here:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Wheaton-Revises-2011-prnews-182642...

That combined with hedgies apparently shorting miners (even though we know it's not a miner) as has been widely discussed in other threads have taken its toll. It was just beginning to get to 1:1 with physical, then, whammo!

I have had a large holding in SLW from last year and have consistently been selling slightly OTM near term calls. If I hadn't been making decent premium during this time, I think I would have bailed on it by now, but I keep hanging on. I'm hoping it'll catch a bounce in the coming next couple weeks if silver reaches 42 as Turd is predicting. 

I like this stock for the weekly option expirations. I often rollout to the next week and adjust the strike price according to the current pps. So far so good, but there are times I do wonder if there are better opportunities elsewhere.

Having said all that, the next few days could really play havoc on SLW, since at the end of the day, it's still viewed as a stock and if the dow/snp take a big hit, it surely will also. I find myself hoping against hope that it will disconnect from that connection and follow silver. Don't think that's in the cards at this point.

Sun, Jul 31, 2011 - 12:26am (Reply to #30)
Rear Flank Downdraft
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Thanks bbdgoco...

......for the link and response. I saw that news and wondered how much it was being factored into pricing.

You make some good points. Being pretty new to SLW, it's been a task trying to track pricing.....cozying up to and rising with spot Ag on some days......tanking with the rest of the miners when resource-rich countries like Peru install a controversial president.....and just doing its own thing it seems on other days.

From your vantage point, did SLW (and the other real miners) behave this way prior to this spring? I suppose when the broader equities take the hit most think is coming, most everyone will hurt some, but do you think SLW's distinction as a streaming company will help or hinder its recovery (assuming the bullish ability of the metals/miners to fare better in the aftermath)?

Mon, Aug 1, 2011 - 12:35am
Phil Gramm
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2nd Quarter Result August 8

All,

I am still hanging onto my shares, but I was tempted to sell around 40. Instead, I sold my CEF and made a profit there.

August 8 is 2nd Quarter results, and those results are going to be the deciding factor on whether I hold for the long term. I suspect that this quarter's results may be very positive, and the stock will rebound from its current pummeling. If the results are not great, then I will sell my shares on a future upswing, and reevaluate investing at a later time (probably 2012). 

I have to say, SLW has been quite the rollercoaster ride, and I feel that while the upside potential of SLW is very strong for the next few years, it's probably not worth the stress. This stock is not for the faint of heart!

Phil

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 9:33am (Reply to #32)
Phil Gramm
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Frustrating

SLW pre-announced their miss with production. OK, fine, not the end of the world. Their revenues double YoY because of the higher price of silver. The market yawns, considers it already priced in.

I expect SLW to drop today. Even after the hard drop it took last week. I bought more shares around $35.50 thinking I got a great deal, but seems not. Very frustrating.

I realize now that SLW is not a good investment. Any stock that drops 9% in one day is suspect to investment. I believe in their business model, and their leadership, but investors do not understand Silver Wheaton. I don't know that they ever will, or at least until silver is considered money rather than just a commodity like copper.

Next time SLW gets above $35.50, which hopefully will happen soon, I am unloading it all. SLW is not worth the stress, even though I would not be surprised it see it surge later this year.

Phil

P.S. Down 3% at open. No surprise.

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 9:39am (Reply to #33)
llaettner
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Perhaps invest in Silver Companies with lower P/E ratios

Might want to check out SVM

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (USA)

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 9:46am (Reply to #34)
Phil Gramm
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No more silver stocks for me.

No more silver stocks for me. The chart for SVM looks just as terrible as SLW.

Probably going back to CEF, which has been another favorite of mine, along with PHYS. I need more gold exposure.

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 9:49am (Reply to #35)
llaettner
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Equities look terrible, much less Mining Companies

Indeed as I was posting, I saw the charts, but in good times, a lower P/E is a better deal (of course with other metrics to back it up, growth, etc.)

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:38pm
SuperManny
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Price/call discrepancy

I think SLW is still a good bet for the long term, so I took out a small position in 2013 calls. Today the price was down around 4%, I thought maybe it'd be a good time to add to it. I look at the price and the calls were up .20!!

I don't think I've ever seen the call price go up when the stock was down that much. Weird times, eh?

I just now re-checked and the $35 2013 calls are still up 10¢... beats all I've ever seen!!?

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:18pm
Phil Gramm
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A Pattern of Manipulation?

It looks like every day this week, on market open, SLW drops like a rock. Then it spends most of the rest of the day trading upward to the opening price.

It might be a smart way to play SLW... buy at 10a, sell at 3p. I might give it a try...

Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - 10:19pm
redwood
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As I indicated on the main

As I indicated on the main blog today:

I have been following SLW now for over 2 years. There has hardly been a day where that dip right after the open hasn't occurred. It's fast and furious, sometimes under 2 minutes, usually the first 2-5 minutes. Those who can lock in at near the botttom can usually earn their keep on a daily basis. That of course only applies when silver is on the rise, otherwise you get your ass wiped.

Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - 10:26pm
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Black Hole Sun
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Good ole' SLW

As you know RedWood, I can testify to that. That was pretty amazing stuff that happened this a.m. and I'm still a bit "wtf'd" about it.

Oh well. I might go back and c&p that post from this a.m. and put it on this forum thread for anyone else who trades in it. 

Lesson learned for me. I will now play that baby short and sweet from now on once I get out of it. I set a high sell limit for GTC on my SLW calls. I think I stand a good chance of that sucker running up again and me catching a bid.

Thanks again for your opinion earlier this a.m.

An epic lack of foresight, accuracy and rationale... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170246#comment-170246

Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - 10:37pm
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Black Hole Sun
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SLW shenanigans/from this a.m.

6

SLW options 15 minutes ago/A warning

Submitted by DarkPurpleHaze on August 12, 2011 - 9:53am. Hat Tip! 3

I just had another bad experience. A costlier one.

And quite honestly, my hands are still trembling a bit from what just happened again. Logged into my options account first thing and saw my SLW $65 calls Jan.12 shoot up over $12k and about 400% real fast. By the time I got a sell order that needed to be a limit price of $2.50 or so it was too late as it kept moving down rapidly.

Quite simply, I couldn't catch it and it didn't last long. From 12k to -1k potentially gone. Tuesday I believe, it was $5k down to -$450 in a blink.

Obviously I'm going to start using sell limits, but much higher then I could even anticipate. It's been happening within the first 5 minutes this week. I'm on guard now as I see anything is possible and I'll set ridiculously high sell limit as it seems it will probably happen again given the volatile environment were in.

Still trembling a bit as I'm pissed, bummed out and in utter disbelief what I've seen "and was ready for" sitting at the keyboard. HFT algo's in complete control.

Obviously, a human has no chance against this and I'm not real confident that even if I had a high sell limit order in that the system would have bought it up. I'm serious.

If this is what a comex or commercial failure might look like in the least little bit then get ready for some eye opening stuff.

Twice in 1 week...? Wtf? Was it my fault...yeah...I guess so...maybe.

Did I really have a chance to recoup everything I was underwater with in May in 1 swoop at 9:35 a.m.? It seems that way but I really don't know and that's disturbing.

Good time for a bloody mary at this point.

Be careful of the algo's.

An epic lack of foresight, accuracy and rationale... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170246#comment-170246

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