Pailin, if you ever get back to read this, When you apply RSI, have you looked into applying 'failed swing'? I am wondering if it would work better than outright signal of hitting 30/70... failed swing: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/042203.asp#axzz1PlZe3FZd
I actually used 3 min data downloaded from Bloomberg. The data doesn't include Friday so some error there compared to buy and hold.
The data was messy and I had to clean it up manually on spreadsheet(yeah I am spreadsheet monkey), which took me almost a day:(
For unlimited loss on short side, I put tight (or say reasonable) stop like Pailin does. Buy and hold is good, but my posting is for a day trading, ie opening and closing within same day. One more: if you ever play leveraged paper like futures/fx spot/etf then long has more potential of unlimited loss than short. As an example, May 1st massacre got many leveraged longs margin called. Also, while silver price can fall $8 in five minutes it has less chance of rising $8 in five minutes so short side with reasonable stop wouldn't have margin call anytime :-) So my suggestion is don't play leveraged long if you are afraid of unlimited loss. Just buy miner stocks or physicals (or physical backed ETF like PSLV/PHYS). Hope this helps.
When you apply RSI, have you looked into applying 'failed swing'? I am wondering if it would work better than outright signal of hitting 30/70... failed swing: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/042203.asp#axzz1PlZe3FZd
I'm still around, reading/thinking, but not posting much. Not trading sucks, miss the action.
I did use failed swing, not in a technical sense, but more of a gut sense to add to a position. On a deep fast dip, like we used to see on the excellent EE raids of yore, I would put on my first long position once the initial move down paused. Then I'd wait to see...what next? If it then resumed drop down further, I'd start looking for where to put a stop/loss in case the thing was going to run away from me completely. If it didn't and resumed going up, I'd wait for FUBM to close the long or if it "failed swing" I would add one or more new longs at those points too. Higher risk but it -in practice- always paid off. The gut worked. Only once did it not. I short sold the top of a FUBM, not realizing it wasn't the top, then it started really moving against me, so I just closed the two shorts I'd put on (one initial and one failed swing) and waited for the next ripe opportunity. Always be careful with shorting, it's dangerous. Anyway, these things are never 100%, you just look for when the odds seem to be 51% against the house :) and place your bet. On a net total basis, always worked for me to the tune of replacing my lost salary income with a lot less risk of ending up with recurrent brown-nose syndrome.
I apologize, to those of you that look forward to my words, for not putting much up here this week. When I have something tasty, I'll be back and make sure you guys know so we can all see if I fall on my face or not :)
Not sold on Euro short here, all due respect to atlee. This whole Greek thing is theater and could go either way in my opinion, not willing to bet my careful savings on whether EE wants to flunk Euro today or kick the can on that and bust up NYSE instead. See, one or the other falls tonight (or next week at latest with austerity riots). Prefer to stay flat...this time. If I had to take a position, I'd be long gold and either short or flat on silver, all paper I mean. I am and remain long core PSLV and physical.
One more thing - my RSI targets were 30/60, that's the meat of the trade to me. 20/70 occurred less often, but when they did I would sometimes double-up because they were gifts of either a raid (20) or short cover (70) and thus temporary.
Thanks Pailin. It's cool to know you use "failed swing' signal:)
BTW, I found this interview with the inventor of RSI is inspiring in case you have 5 min to burn. His first successful trade was on silver!
do you have a graphics program that will allow you to plot the spread sheet data.
I need something.
There must be something. you bought the data from bloomberg in the format.
I need some data bars and a program to look at it.
Bad news for me. Looks like I will not be able to trade until at least mid Sept at the earliest. I am ready to cry. sucks watching the market move up and can not put on a position.
I live in Massachusetts. Maybe I should strap my computer to my back and start hitch hicking now to Mexico where I will be able to trade Forex. I should make it across the border by mid Sept. I will meet Pailin in an old rusty shack down there.
Hey Pailin. They have some Silver mines across the border. We can go prospecting for silver and simply dig it out of the ground. Whaa Hoo. Free Silver for the digging up.
In the old days late 1970's I had a girl friend whos grandfather owned a silver mine in Mexico in the early 1900's. The government confiscated took it away from him for free. He was busted bankrupted. They let him out of the country alive. that was it.
I just used Excel chart tool to plot the data, but my eyes got lost when I put more than 5 day data on a single chart in a same format as kitco's daily chart. Then I felt it is no better than just looking at daily historical chart at kitco.
I am with Oanda and haven't heard a word from them. I might be lucky to continue trading with Oanda. Actually, Interactive brokers provide XAU/USD platform outside of US but never allowed it for US residents anytime this year and I vaguely remember 'some regulatory limitation' as the excuse. Hence it might be case by case....
I don't think you need to hurry. I believe this secular bull market in PM will run at least few more years and final parabolic stage will come much later, and you will have years to prepare:)
I have never even once used Excel. So there is charting within Excel. good to know.
I suspect that Oanda will notify you sometime before July 15. We will see. let us know if they notify you.
I view the entire deal as taking more of our freedom away. We are becoming totally Marxist Communist like Obama. I find it incredible that Americans do not mind a Marxist Communist for president. He is not even an American citizen. He was not born in America and no one seems to care. the entire government is total corruption.
The banksters with the Federal Reserve have destroyed America and taken away our Freedom. We no longer have a Constitution except what the congress and courts and president want. They do not follow the laws. They use the laws to oppress the people.
I just want the freedom to make my own money legally and honestly.
hey pailin, someone posted in kitco that this website allows trading on commodities after july 15th...https://www.infinitytrading.com/
I too am looking for options to continue trading. oanda has not said anything about it either. They said they are aware of the act but cannot say if they will be effected by it.
Amen! Thats why I hate my country. I really dont care about where obama was born. every politician is a crook born here or not. I am just tired of the greedy government
So... does anyone miss Benny posting on the forums saying stuff like "Oh, wait for tomorrow. I got a surprise for you!"
...I ALMOST do! That always grabbed my attention. Anyways, thought I'd share that, happy trading all. Keep this great thread going.
Well said, Sockeye. It really sucks to live in this environment. On a bright note, I had dinner at sushi restaurant here in Manhattan tonite and was surprised to find Sockeye salmon sushi in the menu which I never noticed before. I couldn’t resist and had one piece, and it tasted really good. Then I suddenly felt good about living here after having good sushi and chatted with a nice guy with the same name this afternoon.. lol..
smart money is aggressively selling all rallies.
tomorrow will open lower. i'm guessing since fed speak is scheduled in the early pm w/ room for the market to move, something dollar negative will be intimated.
however, i feel we are entering the danger zone here. i had planned to wait until 1310 to close my longs. today i closed my miner longs purchased last week and opened a small zsl position. from this point forward i will be closing all longs and initiating new shorts only.
I've created a separate forum for Silver updates with charts here for anyone wanting to stay attuned:
Starting to remove short index positions. Beginning
To think that POMO will save us even if qe lite
Doesn't materialise straight away. Weak stocks
Not good for an already collapsed pension situation.
Am seriously thinking about adding some 'trading'
Miners (as opposed to long term 'holders'). Some
Down 50 plus percent of late, not sure if they are
Roadkill yet, so will probably buy just a few at a
Time and dollar cost average them.
Was writing a piece about why I like this site
So much but will need to give it more time
Don't want another thick ear from NCOT About improper formatting or continuity of
Thought....did I miss any any walmart babes
(no surprise, really)
This thread has had 19,447 views.
But then I think it most of us hitting the 'refresh' button a few hundred times a day!
Pailin is now a legend.
Harfwit, format improving, 8/10, keep up the good work.
But not many around to complain - quiet today.
My metal spread betting on hold along with my
Buying back into leveraged etf's. I need to feel
A very high probability outcome with these to
Get comfortable, which in my case means I
Need to be buying after a dip.
What is starting to interest me however is the
Possibility of spread betting the very 'safe'
Miners, kinross, goldcorp, etc as Although we
Haven't yet got a confirmed upswing, if we Do get one the upside bias I think may be
More than the metal and the downside less.
Would be interesting if some of the tech guys
Here took a quick look at some of my fave
Bigcaps, which include the above plus agnico
Eagle and eldorado.
Don't fall asleep ! Tell me what you see in
Those 4 Flipping charts (deliberately misformats post....)