Wising Up

Tue, Jul 12, 2011 - 11:47am

As I type this at 11:21 EDT, it appears that the NY gold buyers may have wised up a little bit. Instead of buying ahead of the London fix, it almost looks like some decided to wait until after 11:00. I have a last of 1553.20. Let's see what the good guys can accomplish in the next couple of hours.

Speaking of The Good Guys, how about that lovely little FUBM in gold yesterday? Don't let the acronym fool you. The FUBM is a very important technical feature. It shows two significant things:

1) EE concern about rising price caused them to violently, maliciously raid. Their nervousness is bullish.

2) Our side's overwhelming demand drives price right back up to where it started. No "running for the hills" or "selling avalanche". Nope. PM bulls are getting their cajones back.

In fact, the selloff was so brazen and the comeback so impressive that I'm about to declare the doldrums to be over. About to...but not yet. Let's see what today brings. Ideally, gold will continue higher in NY (last now is 1553.70) and close near or above the old all-time closing high from 5/2 at 1558.40. IF it can do this, the next target will be to trade through and close above the intraday high of 1578. WHEN that happens, it'll be off to the races. Is it time for optimism? Yes. Could Santa and Turk end up being right? Of course. We'll know very soon.

Silver continues to frustrate and annoy. If I could print a chart for you, it would be a 3-hour silver. You can clearly see the fear in the eyes of Monkeys at 36.80. They'd do anything to keep it below there and, for a while, they'll try. They won't succeed, however, and silver will eventually trade much higher. However, don't get ahead of yourself and act in haste. As hoped, it found really good support around $35.20 but now needs to get back above $36 or it risks rolling back over. A violation of yesterday's lows near 34.80 would likely send it back down toward 33.50. Yikes! So, watch silver closely and stay nimble. The Forces of Darkness are well aware of the importance of keeping silver below $37. Don't be a hero and try to take them out all by yourself.

We are getting good help from DrC and crude, however. Copper was in a little downtrend on the hourly chart but it bottomed right where it should near 432 and now looks OK. Crude fell all the way to 93.55 overnight but is now back above the all-important $96.

As I close, gold continues to hang in there at 1553. Keep a close eye on it. Thank you for your patience with my lack of technical capability this week. Things should return to "normal" by Friday. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


buzlightening · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:10pm

Gold takes it's natural station as the worlds reserve currency.

Just a matter of time before the King of wealth preservation took reality to the bankster fraudsters. It was telling yesterday the EE used the last POMO to shoot real money gold/silver down. Now the arsenal is empty:


Data crunched yesterday triggered my reality alert. I sent my 80 year old Father an email to beef up his shares of PHYS as it'se headed to new highs. Enter with a move today over 1556 and certainly don't miss out on any dips over 1560 to taking out1577. I figure we'll be north of 1600 in a heart beat. By FRYday. Naked shorts just got the heat turned up from raging inferno to near instant vaporization. Haven't got back an answer from my profit paper chasing Father on PHYS yet. He has some shares but as too much cash sittingf idle getting killed by zirp. Zero interest rate policy benron thinks some will never notice as out=right theft. I do and so do many mounting others, which have nothing but invitation gettin made ready for the criminal to come to a party in his honor. It's a high honor, of the hang'em high status. 

stoneeh dolphindude · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:12pm

Re: Secret of Oz

"Any comments on The Wizard of Oz video posted here on Saturday ... the statement that it doesn't matter what money is just as long as the quantity is controlled by someone other than the banks, and no fractional reserve lending? Also the video stated that the quantity of money dropped worldwide by 40 per cent in 2007-08. Is that factual? I am suspicious about the whole line of reasoning presented in the video."

I find this movie relatively good tbh. It makes some points that are alternative to the mainstream, as well as the die hard gold bug community. I agree with the guy's reasoning that we need to get rid of interest rates, as the interest can mathematically never be paid back, AND fractional reserve banking, as it is just danger for society.

The point that is made though that a silver standard is the way to go may have proven to be correct a 100 years ago, and I very much agree with the argument, that silver is more plentiful and the masses can obtain and use it. However, this completely ignores the fact that gold mining will cease in 20-40 years and silver mining in 10-30 years. Whoever holds concentrated amounts of the metals at that point has the wealth monopoly in a gold/silver standard. So this definitely does not create equal chances.

An interest-free money issued by the government, NOT by the banks, as he proposed, would be the way to go, BUT it would need to be a government of the people, because a government by the few will always look out for their interests instead of ours. So direct democracy is probably the way to go... although this will need a looong time to prove itself. What we need first, either way, is a honest society where people are willing to admit their (and society's) weaknesses to work together and better ourselves, always - although I do not know if this is possible among humans.

- Markus

Tesla · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:13pm

Thanks all =]

Look at this interesting development:

Silver open interest for July INCREASES by 3+ tons (20 contracts) since yesterdays COMEX #'s reported

(look at # in upper right corner of reports -- 715 yesterday and 735 today)

Also interesting is the increase in total OI of 1548 contracts!

stoneeh · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:16pm

Regarding the markets, I

Regarding the markets, I think we will still take out that 76,5 level on the USDX and the PMs will get one last good smackdown at that point. It just doesn't make sense any other way. Yes the dollar is weak, but short and medium term the EE has always succeeded in pushing the markets exactly where they want to, and if they seem to fail repeatedly at this level imo it's just playing possum. I think we will yet move to 80 on the USDX and from there, when most of us PM bulls and dollar bears will have capitulated, the waterfall decline to around 60 will begin.

- Markus

I Wazere · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:24pm

thanks in advance

Would it be possible to program the software so that on the FIRST comment, a large #1 appears in red with five gold stars beside it?

... to satisfy the 5 year old mindset of the poster who has no other accomplishment to show.

jerryb · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:24pm

An alternate plan b

Having some physical silver, I wanted to get some "insurance" against large price drops. I looked at futures options, but they are more expensive than my budget could handle. So, I looked at SLV options. I bought a few "out of the money" puts (strike prices 5 to 6 dollars out of the money). (BTW, one SLV options contract is for 100 shares). A day later it ocurred to me also to buy a few out of the money call options in case silver rises substantially. In both cases I picked October options. If silver prices go nowhere, both sets of options will lose money. On the other hand if silver prices move substantially in either direction, the investment should be profitable. YMMV

Pablo · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:29pm

Does anyone have a truck I can borrow?

The only gear I need is reverse, because I'm going to BACK IT UP.

Seriously though I will be happy when silver really catches a bid above ~$39.50 and gets the rest of our physical out from underwater. Some of it's been down there so long I think the coral is getting attached to it!

SilverTree · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:33pm



· Jul 12, 2011 - 3:34pm

Double top in gold?

Maybe, but every up-trending chart shows a double top for a day or so as the trend continues. It just depends on how many traders set their profit-taking stops right at that prior level. The Market Forecast chart (Tor S) doesn't indicate a top yet, nor does the slow stochastic. I am looking for a new high tomorrow and a bit more on the upside, then a pullback to a higher low--perhasp a test of 1550 as support. But events in Europe are changing things daily...

stoneeh · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:37pm

“Most” FOMC members said the

“Most” FOMC members said the rise in inflation would“prove transitory” and that over the medium term inflation would “be subdued as long as commodity prices did not continue to rise rapidly and longer-term inflation expectations remained stable.”

So now we have confirmation. That's why commodities are down. They need it to launch QE3.

Chain of reasoning: slowing economy, growing unemployment, but stable inflation expectation and no rising commodity prices = further stimulus warranted.

- Markus

stoneeh · Jul 12, 2011 - 3:46pm



Holy shit, that guy is pathetic. And you call yourself President of the United States? A lame stuttering indifferent presence like that, and there was a point in time when they would have run you out of the White House. No wonder they call you "Obama", because you sir are not worth being called "Mr. President".

- Markus

Tesla · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:07pm

We Are Living ...

...in Interesting Times as the old saying goes.

@LaMachinna =] glad to be your first (um, hat tip ...I mean) it really HAS been an interesting few days.

I think the EE is responsible for the 1548 increase in OI (paper silver fire sale yesterday) but the July 20 contract OI increase = NOT the EE there at all to my thinking! QE3 buz and serious Euro woes are driving a potential giant move!

Bullwhip29 has a very good point regarding a possible unprecedented EE shock and awe smash down. I wonder if that hasn't already been thwarted by todays spike back up... But then think again as we ARE back struggling at 36 again - so...

Gonna be a pivotal economic moment playing out in front of us this week for sure.


BTW I really enjoy SilverTree's always awesome graphics, thanks man!

SilverWealth · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:19pm

funny stuff

The Empire caps Gold never allowing much more than 1% moves. I sense alot of euphoria on this board which is understandable. But remember the last time we were at 1560 and at 1575 before that? The momentum players climbed in and got absolutely hammered. Everyone was quoting Turk and Sinclair and Embry as if they were Jefferson,Washington and Franklin.

I have been selling off slices into this rise. I would love to see it higher and I love the strength GDX and GDXJ are showing. But to time it day to day when I am dealing with a criminally run operation? After the waterfalls I have seen in Gold following every important euphoric high? No way. The Great and almighty Turd himself climbed in with some August gold options not long ago. Remember that period around the 1550 area? When Gold was showing great strength?

LaMachinna SilverWealth · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:22pm


Quite possibly your are spot on. 

But, can we at least enjoy a celebration today? cool I think we are due one and should probably take them when we can. Maybe just a small one SW? 

Jason King · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:23pm

For those of you who miss "Evil"

Following on from the thread that accompanied TF's post from yesterday, you can find "Evil" here https://evilspeculator.com/ . His real name is "Mole" and you may want to have a read of his articles in his archive from the time of $50 silver

SilverTree · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:24pm
SilverWealth · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:25pm


Markus I am glad you are not fooled by the Obama clown act. This guy is a complete media creation with an entirely unknown past.

I wish I could convince some idiot family members of mine but they prefer to live inside the Matrix.

Tesla SilverTree · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:27pm

Cat Shark!!!!

About fell out of my chair!

Gramp · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:43pm

That "Calvin" has more "Bite"

That "Calvin" has more "Bite" than Bounce...devil

stoneeh SilverWealth · Jul 12, 2011 - 4:44pm

Haha SilverWealth, same here.

Haha SilverWealth, same here. People are hopeless basically. That doesn't mean I hate them or something, but it sure is frustrating. They are basically going to get RAPED. And they are not willing to do a single thing about it.

- Markus

Sanchez · Jul 12, 2011 - 7:08pm

I came to realize that a Gold

I came to realize that a Gold Standard is very important. Its needed to keep governments in check. But do the people need a gold standard? Its up to them. I came up on this united state code. 

31 usc 1503 Legal Tender

United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues. Foreign gold or silver coins are not legal tender for debts.


I wonder if those who refuse your silver eagles for a payment of something could result in you suing them because under the code it says these coins are legal tender. Just as it says in the Constitution, silver and gold coins are money. 

Boswell · Jul 12, 2011 - 10:12pm


They must accept them at FACE VALUE. ;-(

Kumanari · Jul 13, 2011 - 9:38am

Drinking upstream

sept,dec, mar, may, calls purchased with pain ( as espoused by Thomson) at lows last week with 1400 oct puts for insurance. I'd be sleeping like a baby but broker keeps waking me as hsr s are shattered.

Kumanari Sanchez · Jul 13, 2011 - 9:44am

Gresham's Law over rides all

Gresham's Law over rides all codes globally. Your coins WILL be accepted at FACE value.

............... are soon parted.

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