Holiday Weekend Jackass


It's a sort of tradition around here that whenever we have a three-day market holiday weekend, we try to check in with Jim Willie. And this time, we used our A2A webinar format so that subscribers of TFMR were able to ask their own questions in real time. It was great fun and I think you'll find it all quite thought-provoking.

What topics did we discuss over this 97-minute call? Maybe a better question is...what topics did we not discuss? In this podcast you'll here Jim pontificate on Trump, Syria, North Korea, gold, China, gold trade notes, silver, the mining shares, the Fed, debt jubilee, interest rates, the dollar, platinum and even his thoughts on Journey entering the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame.

So sit back, relax and enjoy. And have a great holiday weekend, too.



Apr 16, 2017 - 10:27pm

Russia and China Preparing

Russia and China Preparing Alternative Banking Architecture

by James Corbett, The International Forecaster:

…no one of these stories is a silver bullet, but they’re all related and point in the same direction: China and Russia are preparing for the split with US-dominated financial architecture.

It may have arrived with little fanfare, but Russia’s SWIFT alternative has, more or less, arrived. Speaking in no uncertain terms at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin late last month, Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of Russia’s central bank, stated: “We have finished working on our own payment system, and if something happens, all operations in SWIFT format will work inside the country. We have created an alternative.”

Read More

Apr 16, 2017 - 10:28pm

Declassified list reveals

Declassified list reveals U.S. targets Russia’s high density population centers with nuclear weapons… Russia likely does the same for the USA

by Jayson Veley, Natural News:

There is an ongoing debate over whether the existence of nuclear weapons makes America a safer place or whether it puts our country in harm’s way. For the most part, the debate falls along party lines – that is to say, Republicans generally believe that maintaining a nuclear stockpile is necessary, while Democrats, including the former President, do not. But regardless of all the arguments for or against a nuclear arsenal, the fact of the matter is that the United States possesses roughly 6,800 nuclear warheads, second only to Russia, which is armed with about 7,000. Other countries don’t even come close to these figures – the United Kingdom has roughly 215 nuclear warheads, France has around 300, China has 260 and Israel has 80.

With nuclear arsenals of this scope and size, it is clear that a war between the United States and Russia would be nothing short of catastrophic. Given the fact that tensions between the two countries have been on the rise in recent days following President Trump’s air strikes on a Syrian airfield, many people are becoming worried that one day soon, those nuclear weapons could be used. Of course, such a conflict between the United States and Russia would force other countries like Iran, Syria and the United Kingdom to take action as well, potentially leading to a third world war.

Read More

Apr 16, 2017 - 10:32pm

Not normal

The very clear divergence of the USD/JPY & CDG and CDS is very telling. We are near a breaking point in regards to the real economy, the world's sham financial shit show, & geopolitical tensions. Some entity is pulling some serious levers tonight in the markets to provide an alternative reality of apparent calm. This very overt manipulation is extremely unsettling.

Apr 16, 2017 - 10:58pm

World's Biggest Aluminum Producer Faces Default

Warns Of "Dramatic Social Unrest" Without A Beijing Bailout

Step aside China Huishan Dairy Holdings - China's largest dairy producer which cratered last month after a negative Muddy Waters research report brought attention to a company we knew for one year was collateralizing its cows to fund stock buybacks - and make way for what may be the next Chinese megafraud.

While China Hongqiao Group may be best known for being the world's largest aluminum producer, it has in recent months featured just as prominently among short-seller reports who have accused the company of being a fraud. As the WSJ's Scott Patterson writes, questions about China Hongqiao’s finances first emerged in November, when an anonymous short seller wrote on a website called Hongqiao Exposed that the company’s profits are “too good to be true.” China Hongqiao in the March 31 statement called the report “untrue and unfounded.”

A subsequent 46-page report on Feb. 28 by Emerson Analytics, a trading firm focused on Chinese stock-market fraud, disclosed more allegations of fraud involving the Chinese commodity giant.

Apr 16, 2017 - 11:09pm

RE: Not Normal

War drums.

Apr 16, 2017 - 11:21pm

Just a note...

What a great thread this was/is this weekend ! Thanks to all for the outstanding comments. I am especially thankful for the great info presented on GDXJ/JNUG/ETF complex...I learned TONS ! Well done Turdville !!!!!!!!

And another note for those who are not yet should really come aboard and give this place a try, I can almost guarantee you'll not be disappointed. The fine analysis, the breadth of wisdom offered, and the witty banter are all present on a daily basis. Sign up for a month and see for yourself.

Of course, an extra hat tip for our grand leader himself, Mr. Turd Ferguson !

Okay, let's see what this week brings . Best to all !

Apr 17, 2017 - 12:04am

The agenda is clear as crystal

This is the key inflection point, as Craig and many others have been alerting us to.

Can. Not. Let. Gold. Break. Downward. Trend.

Perhaps this time will be the Battle for Evermore!?

Led Zeppelin - Lord of the Rings - Battle of Evermore - AMV

Apr 17, 2017 - 1:18am


just a comment (as I am printing my tax returns)

I said earlier I like JNUG and NUGT more than ever. I do.

But a caveat--I understand the strengths and weaknesses of both (that I am aware of). There are strengths and weaknesses on all products.I still feel the risk reward aspect is very good.

There is no such thing as a free lunch.

You get what you pay for, sometimes.

The problem with the overall stock market and bond market is investors and professional investors for the most part are ignoring risk and being nonchalant about valuations.

for crying out loud, we are at 28 times GAAP earnings plus due a buyback adjustment which puts PE over 30--with an economy that probably is contracting and the .5 annual atlanta Fed growth is overstated by a few percentage points.

Retail reported by government sucks on its own at literally flat the first qtr including the inflation the government says it is (around 2-3%).

28 times earnings, no growth-maybe low 30's. There used to be a PEG ratio (there still is but its ignored) where you did not pay a higher PE than growth to assure an appropriate and doable ROI. With no growth and it appears to be systemic rather than just a cycle, pe's should be single digit -that tells me we could see a 70% selloff in markets rather easily when the dam breaks.

Devastating to America.

Illinois released a month review of cash flow last week--said Feb was down 12% total tax revenues and March looks like it is in a freefall.

This economic decline is not like one we have seen before. Not here at least. Its time to get real real careful.

Apr 17, 2017 - 1:23am

What is Trump going to do now?

ISIS launches 2nd chemical attack in Mosul in 2 days, injures 6 Iraqi soldiers

Apr 17, 2017 - 1:47am

2nd Gas Attack

Trump probably end Meals on Wheels or close a children's Hospital.

Apr 17, 2017 - 2:07am

Low volume?......Stock Markets closed on Monday

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark,Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, S. Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K.

Apr 17, 2017 - 2:42am

Since Europe is on holiday today...

When the New York traders show up for work this morning....I do not expect anything good for us.

It's traditionally called Wet Monday, after all

Apr 17, 2017 - 7:49am

Seems to be a complete media blackout

Nothing on NK, Russia/China/US in the news.... Gold totally under control.... hmmmm ... Maybe there is nothing to get excited about .. or maybe there is... lol

Maestro canary
Apr 17, 2017 - 8:08am


Swiss wet T-shirt contest

Apr 17, 2017 - 8:27am

Just for my own sanity

I like to mix, usually depressing or manipulated news with other things.

Here are two that I found interesting.

You don't have to view all the clips if you don't have time but the first one is under 2 minutes and shows a guy being hit without flinching including several hits to the nuts.

This ones shows the work of a little girls painting of Jesus and Heaven, from what she recalled for the age of 4.

I only listened to the first two segments, about 10 minutes. Truly remarkable.

Now, hopefully, I can remain sane while watching the banskers abuse us. Well, maybe not, bastards!

Apr 17, 2017 - 8:55am


Just another great example why TFMR has the best collection of independent minds in the blogosphere. It is second to NONE!

Apr 17, 2017 - 9:10am

New World Order

A long but clear discussion of what "The New World Order" is ... and why it is important.

and.... why Trump has a nearly impossible task of being successful ...

and maybe why gold and silver are held under complete control ... and what are the chances of it being freely traded...

Apr 17, 2017 - 9:20am

from ZH...

Monday, April 17

  • 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, April (consensus +15.0, last +16.4)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, April (consensus 70, last 71): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index to edge down by 1pt in April from a post-crisis high of 71, after a strong report in March showed broad-based strengthening across all components and regions.
  • 05:00 PM Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give the Inaugural Lecture on Central Banking at the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs. The topic of his remarks will be “Monetary Policy Communication”. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, February (last +$110.4bn)
Apr 17, 2017 - 9:24am
J Siefert Angry Chef
Apr 17, 2017 - 9:25am

Re. This Is What’s Really Behind North Korea’s Nuclear Provocati

Not sure if there is anything in it but.....

Video unavailable
Apr 17, 2017 - 9:35am

Did you see the hit on silver, this morning?....

All the way to 18.35...But it bounced.

Apr 17, 2017 - 10:14am


I don't see it...according to the low was 18.49. I don't see any spike down even on the 1 min. candles.

but I do see another hatchet job on the GDXJ !!!!!

Apr 17, 2017 - 10:19am
Apr 17, 2017 - 10:49am

Two Points

First, tbe military is controlled by the civilian appointments within the Pentagon.

Second, Control of Wall Street can be regained by the Presidential appointment of a US Attorney General that is directed to and takes criminal action against political and financial corruption.

If your goal is to continue the corruption, you appoint corrupt individuals and as tbe President, direct them to maintain status quo. It is apparent by these appointed executives day to day actions, not their verbal, what the agenda is.

Apr 17, 2017 - 10:52am

A.E....are you part of this bump?

calling you out again...

It appears that if you want to be liked by the American public, go to war. After a non-stop plunge to record low ratings for a new president, Rasmussen's most recent data shows President Trump's favorability surging to 2-month highs since he started rattling sabres around the world.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. This is the first time the president’s overall approval rating has been back in the 50s in nearly a month. Just after his inauguration, Trump’s job approval peaked at 59% and remained in the 50s every day until early March. It’s gone as low as 42% since then. The latest figures for Trump include 30% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 39% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9.

However, while this recent warmongery has juiced Trump's favorability, a recent Gallup poll says majority of people no longer believe he will deliver on promises...

The more positive assessments of Trump in February came as he started his presidency with a flurry of executive orders and Cabinet appointments. Regardless of whether they agreed with those actions, Americans appeared to take them as evidence Trump was keeping his campaign pledges to fundamentally alter the course of the federal government.

In the two months since, however, Trump appeared to walk away from repealing the Affordable Care Act after Republicans failed to agree on the healthcare replacement bill that Trump stood behind. Political friends and foes alike have complained that Trump is not carrying out the promises he made on the campaign trail. Supporters have expressed unhappiness that more has not been done on taxes and immigration, in addition to healthcare. Opponents say he has not protected middle- and working-class Americans.

As Gallup concludes, at the outset of his presidency, a majority of the public did give Trump credit, however, for keeping his promises and for being a president who could bring about needed changes. Now many have turned away from those views, perhaps because of the GOP's failure to deliver on their long-standing promise to repeal Obamacare. As a result, a majority now disagree that he has these qualities. These views could shift again, depending on Trump's actions over the course of his presidency. But for now, Trump has lost significant ground with a public that only two months ago credited him with having one of the key characteristics of a successful president.

Apr 17, 2017 - 10:59am

@ Orange

Thank you.

Apr 17, 2017 - 11:11am


Polls are rigged when they are unfavorable, but then are legit and somehow have meaning when the number is more positive. Donald Trump will surely make note of the positive move.

Wouldn't these polls be the tool of propaganda to make it seem like war is favorable and you should want it too?

Where should one look to find some semblance of truth when the agendas are out in the open, people are aware, but now the information itself is even more questionable then ever.

Irony: People are waking up and are now even more confused. The sheer number of realities that exist now is mindbending.


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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