The Turd Speaketh

605
135
Fri, Oct 14, 2011 - 4:59pm

As we head into the weekend, I've got a few things on my mind. However, it would take too much time to type it all out so I figured it would be best to speak to you directly.

The only thing that I forgot was that YouTube only allows 15 minute videos. Well, let's just say I rambled on a bit and ended up somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 minutes. Oops. Therefore, note that there are two clips attached. Please humor me by taking the time to watch both.

Have a great weekend! TF

The Turd Speaks Oct 2011 (pt. 1)
The Turd Speaks Oct 2011 (pt. 2)

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  605 Comments

NW VIEW California Lawyer · Oct 15, 2011 - 4:34pm

@ CALIFORNIA LAWYER- SHOW ME THE CHAIN OF TITLE

We have discussed this issue in the past and nothing has changed. The title insurance companies are still adding chicken clauses in the exceptions on their reports. This in effect makes title insurance equal to no insurance but the consumer thinks they are insured. I can still only see one way out of this mess of chain of title, show me the note, who really is the owner of the cash on closings, and the back room signing of false deeds that have been recorded. 

We have mechanic and material liens that can be recorded for weeks after a title insurance report is given and a closing has transpired. The title insurance companies often get stuck with these liens and they lose millions of dollars each year. But after a few months these liens expire and are worthless but it does not help if there is a closing. My solution is that the government needs to appoint a special judge to make decisions on all questionable sales or refinances. Such as a written notice, published, stating that the funds will be held in escrow for 10 days after closing and anyone having a claim on such funds must file a notice. If there are not any notices then the funds will be distributed to the current parties of record and this is final. 

Well C.L., I'm sure you will see some holes in my thinking but someone, somewhere has to have the ability to begin a new chain of title on these millions of loans and some method of protecting the title insurance industry. jmo

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:11pm

H'mmm

...and now my icon is back to it's usual rainbow haze self. 

I still haven't figured the C&P or exporting of pics from "Word" to my TF user profile.

ewc58 · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:12pm

Yo, better and better...

Ok, saw your link, here's the money shot for the sake of the rest here:

JP Morgan London-based metals team just raised its Q4 gold price target to $2,150 per ounce from $1,800 per ounce.

Yes folks, it says Q4.....this year... Right so we have 2.5 months to scale these heights? Here's what I think:

- sure hope JPM is making a single exception to it's longstanding, Lie 110% Of The Time corporate policy

- I've now heard from 3 different trusted sources including via a member of a high-end investors club in NYC that the bottom is in in the Miners and that is only up from here, some feel precipitously.

-What I'll do this week is buy up some Jan and March '12 out of the money Calls at these truly stupid-ass prices. Strikes not too high, but a few bucks higher than what one would expect to hit on sitting here today, in absence of JPM's report... B/c if this move to $2,150 or anything close is going to take place that fast, what seems like "out of the money" today might really be a great deal masquerading in an extremely repulsive Halloween costume, put on about 6 weeks too early. I'll only spend $1,000 max on these Calls, knowing if this move should happen they could net me $10k+. Warning: please, no one commit a cent to a strategy like this that they are not prepared mentally, and more importantly, financially, to lose. Things are tough enough and Christmas and Chanukah are around the corner, you'll feel like a heel if you f*ck things up now. Be careful, be realistic not only in terms of what you can spend, but what you can truly afford to lose right now. Don't mean to scare anyone off either, just know The Rules.

- I'll hold off a bit on shares until I see signs of such a move

- last: is actually first- - get some more PM NOW before it flies away like a birdie. Especially if you're still accumulating and don't feel your goals have been met, keep on keepin' on adding ounces. Out of new monies that come available, decide what % you'll use for Metal, and how much for shares/options, etc. You may decide to shift the percentages depending on outlook, maybe going from 70/30 in favor of metal to something closer to 50/50 in order to shift more to buy more shares and options in Miners whose share price may scream higher in mere weeks... if JPM is right, the fuse is already lit. The only question now is how much further to the powder keg.

Must say, as big a PM Bull as I am, even I'm not sure what would now drive a spike of this magnitude ($470 p/oz) in 10 weeks or less, outside of... well... not too sure actually (or not willing to ruin your Saturday), but I do not think it's very likely to be a Martha-type Good Thing. But yes, it could offer a great opportunity to employ options-type leverage to help reap the biggest possible harvest from what would truly be a Fall to remember in gold...

Just my .05 (inflation)

Tesla · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:19pm

@DPH

I just tried this profile thing you asked about by dragging and dropping from my seldom if at all used face book account and it worked out perfect. If you have a face book or other website account that allows uploading pics you can upload it there and then drag and drop to the comment editor box.

redwood · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:20pm

ewc58

I'm curious and I'm not trying to be a wise ass here, but did your contacts warn you about this last downturn in the metals after the FOMC meeting (even though I'm not convinced it had much to do with the meeting)?

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:25pm

Thanks Tesla...I tried C&P

Thanks Tesla...I tried C&P 'ing them from my "Word" into that post field where I mentioned and I couldn't. I don't have a facebook or twitter etc. going on.

I may try to scan them into a e-mail attachment and send the e-mail to myself so they open up in that type of format. And then maybe try the C&P there. I may have just figured it out by typing this out.

 We shall see.

ewc58 · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:26pm

Admin/Moderator: question

do h/t's ever just "go away"? I just noticed that I've actually lost about 70 since last night. If there's a good reason for this having happened, that is just fine by me. I've never been concerned with competing here, I post what I post and let the chips fall where they may. No, I'm sending this heads up to see if swiping of h/t's from anyone on the leaderboard is one of the dodgy things you've been seeing in some of the weird stuff that's been taking place on the blog.

The totals make no never mind to me, I just wanted to make you aware in case something less than kosher is at play... Thank you.

Tesla · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:35pm

@DPH

That won't work and here's why:

The image must reside on a public webserver somewhere so that the TFM site can hot-link to it and display it on the target page. Your computers hard drive is private as it should be and not directly web accessable. If you would like to email me the pic I will put it on my server but I don't think this will be all that convenient as it will have to wait for me to recieve it and upload it...

Personally I hate and distrust facebook for its user info mining tactics and would suggest another public photo sharing platform... Anyone out there using one that they could recommend?

​Here's a link to flickr... maybe not the best but the first that comes to mind:

https://www.flickr.com/

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:43pm

I've noticed also

Definitely not a complaint either.

I've been seeing some wide swings by hundreds at times overnight to the plus and minus side also. Just wondering if some problems or whatever have been going on with hackers or pissed off ex-turdites/trolls.

CreditCrumbs · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:43pm

What Hyperinflation looks like

Let's take a different tack. To understand the incomprehensible scope of the German inflation maybe it's best to start with something basic….like a loaf of bread. (To keep things simple we'll substitute dollars and cents in place of marks and pfennigs. You'll get the picture.) In the middle of 1914, just before the war, a one pound loaf of bread cost 13 cents. Two years later it was 19 cents. Two years more and it sold for 22 cents. By 1919 it was 26 cents. [Double in value, or a "mere" 12% compound inflation –JM.] Now the fun begins.

In 1920, a loaf of bread soared to $1.20, and then in 1921 it hit $1.35. By the middle of 1922 it was $3.50. At the start of 1923 it rocketed to $700 a loaf. Five months later a loaf went for $1200. By September it was $2 million. A month later it was $670 million (wide spread rioting broke out). The next month it hit $3 billion. By mid month it was $100 billion. 


Read more: https://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-can-it-happen-here-2011-10#ixzz1atBnYtC0

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:44pm

Ok thanks

I just tried the e-mail thing and found out what you just said. Ok, I'll check out flickr.com

ewc58 · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:45pm

@ redwood

No they did not. But they had been more circumspect than many about possible PM and Miner price declines mid year, in advance of a move much higher toward the end of the year and into 012.

Question back: anyone warn you? In a way you could rationally internalize? Could anyone really predict the magnitude of what we've seen since then? I don't think so, outside of some PM charts that sure do "look" correct, despite T/A's well known inability to account for EE gyrations, at least as wild and crazy as these hits were.

redwood · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:49pm

ewc58 and DPH

Somehow I'm not surprised with the possible alteration of hat tips. If you recall a troll 2 days ago was particularly rabid with questions addressed to the those on the leaderboard. He said he wouldn't put me on the ignore list justifying it with some ingratiating comment. My first thought was of course he wouldn't, I'm not on the leaderboard.

2turdledoves · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:50pm

More on China

Just watched an Al Jazeera special on the GFC and they noted that there are 63 million vacant apartments in China! Hard to imagine. That would be like most of the homes in America being empty. They mentioned this as many are hoping China is going to pull the rest of the world out of recession. Not.

2turdledoves · Oct 15, 2011 - 5:55pm

Strange as it may seem

Gold is moving like equities. Stranger than Truth?

Why is this the case? Why does gold just move like equities do? Basically, because it's all about the dollar. Today people are feeling nervous, so they want more dollars, and less of everything else. Previously, people were feeling good, and wanted less dollars, and more of everything else.

Until this changes, expect the correlation to remain in tact.

Read more: https://www.businessinsider.com/once-again-gold--equities-2011-10#ixzz1atEsz3TL
redwood · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:02pm

ewc58

 Actually I was fully convinced there would be a downturn in September and said so on this blog, but in the end only partly followed my better judgement , unlike late April when I got out 100% before the drop.

One of the things I mentioned in Aug. on the blog was that GS had been predicting gold at 2500 and that combined with much other info, gave me cause for concern. Now here we are again with JPM saying the same thing... again I consider this a red flag. 

Anyway I appreciate your response.

Nick Elway · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:03pm

RIP Dennis Ritchie, father of Unix and C, he passed Oct 12

“When Steve Jobs died last week, there was a huge outcry, and that was very moving and justified. But Dennis had a bigger effect, and the public doesn’t even know who he is,” says Rob Pike, who spent 20 years working across the hall from Ritchie at Bell Labs.

Dennis Ritchie is the father of the C programming language, and with fellow Bell Labs researcher Ken Thompson, he used C to build UNIX, the operating system that so much of the world is built on — including the Apple empire overseen by Steve Jobs.

“Pretty much everything on the web uses those two things: C and UNIX,” Pike tells Wired. “The browsers are written in C. The UNIX kernel — that pretty much the entire Internet runs on — is written in C. Web servers are written in C, and if they’re not, they’re written in Java or C++, which are C derivatives, or Python or Ruby, which are implemented in C. And all of the network hardware running these programs I can almost guarantee were written in C.

https://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2011/10/thedennisritchieeffect/

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:19pm

Tesla

Did it! Thanks so much. Pretty happy about that yes

A few fish pics on my user Bio to remind me of what I wish I was doing more often.

backseatdriver · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:20pm

2turdledoves

I have a friend who works for Raymond James Financial, and another who works for RBC. Both are senor equity research analysts. Both are of the same opinion you just expressed. China is in a very tough and awkward spot right now. That said, can they be any worse of than us? It all sucks right now and it doesn't take a weatherman to see which way the winds are blowing.

BSD

backseatdriver · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:24pm

Sweet DPH

Thanks for sharing, too cool. I live in Central Oregon and my digs overlook the Deschutes. Flyfishing paradise of sorts. 

BSD

HAVEFAITH · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:32pm
redwood · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:37pm

DPH

This is like deja vu. You and I talked about this very same thing in August when I mentioned GS. My big question now is have the miners had most of their drop to date, or are they now braced for at least another 20-25% (essentially replicating 2008 with a significant downturn in the market). The degree of decline does make a difference in the decisions you make. I don't know yet but I'm thinking.

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:39pm

BSD...nice scenery and a definite paradise

I know an awful lot about fishing and I can somewhat picture the layout you describe. It's beautiful!

I've read and watched so many mags and fishing shows over the years that I've seen the world of fishing somewhat and done a lot of my own. I could go on and on.

I lack in depth fly fishing knowledge for sure, but I know I could whip a fish out from the water with a fly rod if I had to. I know the basics and what it's all about. 

You might feel similarly, or maybe even some of you others who hunt or whatever. But I feel so blessed in my fishing experiences and all the catching of hundreds upon hundreds of fish of all sizes and types that I've lived the life of 100 fishermen. I've had that much luck/blessings upon me.

The funny thing about it is that I don't really eat fish that much at all, hardly ever. ( I do love crab, lobster scallops etc though) I let all of them go, except one or two I might give to someone who asks for the fish for food . They never get turned down from me and it makes you really think when someone is actually fishing and hoping to catch something so they have something to eat.

Like I said, I'm blessed. 

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:41pm

redwood

I hear ya' on these big banks making these type of calls. I suspect their motives deeply on how contrarian they are in public to what the Fed has to say, publicly at least, about gold.

The big banks tricks are in our heads and I'll be the first to admit it. How could anyone not pay attention to this type of bullish gold forecast from them and not wonder what's up their sleeve? Because something always is and it has to do with them wanting as much OPM (other peoples money) as they can pick pocket away from you in the markets or whatever fee's they can charge you.

I Run Bartertown · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:41pm

Leaderboard

I was under the impression that it's a rolling month rather than a calendar month. So it won't go to zero on the first of the month, but it will go down and up periodically. Or maybe it IS the Evil Empire stealing your hat tips. If that's the case, then they've got way too much excess capacity in this whole thing. They can not be beaten. I'd have to give up and love Big Brother just like Winston did.

Zoltan · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:42pm

Nice Rant Turd

Listened to the whole thing.

Will continue to try to be an ambassador and welcome committee member for the site.

Please, please, please banish the trolls to fight club rather than delete stuff. Down the memory hole is a loss to the site because when people can see their tactics, and the loyal turd army counter measures, we all gain.

Z

PS Chicken Little, that was some funny stuff.

TheGoodDoctor · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:49pm

@I Run Bartertown. Yes. That

@I Run Bartertown.

Yes. That is how it runs. However, you should never lose any of your overall total hat tips. Just leader board rolling month as you mentioned. I thought the two were connected somehow but they are not. Stephanie and the admin sorted it out for me.

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 6:58pm

Should get interesting on a Saturday night I would think

#OWS Occupies Times Square - Live Feed

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2011 - 18:42

The #OccupyWallStreet crowd has shifted over to the heart of tourist New York (where no actual New Yorker has set foot.. probably ever) - Times Square. Follow the action live with this convenient live feed.

zerohedge.com

¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 7:03pm
¤ · Oct 15, 2011 - 7:08pm

Wall Street Protests Spread Globally

Wall Street Protests Spread Globally, With Rome Violence, Calm Elsewhere Q By Francesca Cinelli, Esmé E. Deprez and Maria Kolesnikova - Oct 15, 2011 6:36 PM ETSat Oct 15 22:36:38 GMT 2011

The Occupy Wall Street protest against income disparity spread across Western Europe, Asia, the U.S. and Canada today. Rome’s demonstration turned violent, contrasting with peaceful events elsewhere.

As many as 500 marchers in Rome wielding clubs attacked police, two banks and a supermarket, Sky TG24 reported. Authorities used tear gas and water cannon. Londoners were barred from Paternoster Square, home of the London Stock Exchange, and Tokyo protesters demanded an end to nuclear power.New York police arrested 24 at a Citigroup Inc. (C) bank branch and 6,000 gathered in Times Square.

The rallies started last month in New York’s financial district, where people have been staying in lower Manhattan’s Zuccotti Park. They widened to 1,500 cities today, including Sydney and Toronto, the organizers said, in a “global day of action against Wall Street greed.”

“The world will rise up as one and say, ‘We have had enough,’” Patrick Bruner, an Occupy Wall Street spokesman, said in an e-mail.

Protesters say they represent “the 99 percent,” a nod to a study by Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz showing the top 1 percent of Americans control 40 percent of U.S. wealth...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-14/wall-street-protests-planned-i...

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

randomness