More Downside Ahead?

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:01pm

Wow, this is really getting ugly. Metals down. Miners down. Yuck. Can it get worse? You bet it can. How much? I guess that depends upon whether or not this is "IT".

Gold 1596. Silver 28 and change. ABX 43. EXK 7.60. SLW 25.97. YIKES! DOUBLE YIKES!! But there is currently a pretty significant rally taking place in the stock market so maybe all is well. OK, probably not. It's more likely just The Fed painting the tape through the intercession of their primary dealers.

Here are your updated PM charts. This latest selloff has made their nascent recoveries look tenuous, at best. Both appear poised for a mid-week test of last weeks lows.


Having fallen this far, it's hard for me to believe that the metals won't test their respective long-term trendlines before they are done. Here are re-prints of the weekly charts I posted back on Sunday.


And here is a 5-year chart of the HUI. The 480 area has often acted as support but it wouldn't surprise me to see this index fall all the way to 450. Of course, if the U.S. stock market collapses this month like it did 3 years ago, it ain't gonna stop there so, if you own the miners, you should stay very cautious.


And this, from ZH, offers about the best advice available right now:

Now, go forth and prepare. We may be on the verge of the great collapse that so many of us have been expecting. We might also not be. Maybe the proverbial "can" can get kicked a bit further down the road once again.

Who can say for sure?

If we aren't on the verge, we should consider ourselves blessed for having additional time to prepare.

If we are on the verge, God help us all. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


So It Goes · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:15pm

Physical silver

Just went to Tulving's website. Thought all would like to know.

"We Have Been Shipping to Customers An Average Of About 100,000 Ozs of Silver Every Working DAY Since Sept 23."

Wow. And by the way - it looks like all "junk" silver is sold out - I have never seen that in the years I have been following the site. Also - the commissions are getting higher for the physical silver and gold.

You can take that to the bank!

Keep stacking.

survivalwstyle · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:27pm
¤ · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:28pm

Pretty sure they don't know how to count

DPH: Seriously, week after week they seem to pretend they are caught off guard by the previous weeks consumption vs the supply totals they anticipated.

Who do they have calculating the inventory...Stevie Wonder using a abacus or what? cheeky

It's approximated and guesstimated anyway and revised like most of the other significant data they toss around and then revise. I think it's a market response to some MENA stuff now that oil was driven down so hard. It will be over $80 in a blink if any news breaks at all.


Oct. 4, 2011, 10:00 p.m. EDT

Oil futures surge after data

By sturner[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Sarah Turner), MarketWatch

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures rebounded sharply during early Asian trading hours Wednesday after data showed an unexpected drop in crude stocks.

Benchmark Nymex light, sweet crude-oil futures /quotes/zigman/2075833 CL1X +2.58% advanced $1.96, or 2.6%, to $77.63 a barrel in electronic trading, taking back some recent losses.

Crude-oil supplies fell by 3.1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 30, the American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday.

Analysts had been expecting supplies to rise, according to Bloomberg News.

The data came ahead of a closely watched U.S. Energy Information Administration report, due out later Wednesday, with a Platts survey of analysts forecasting a 2.5-million-barrel gain in crude stocks, and a Bloomberg survey tipping a 1.5-million-barrel rise...

Antrobus · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:31pm


It's not just terrorists that can do EMPs - Mother Nature can do them big time. It's an existential risk. And real.

ewc58 · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:34pm

Dr. Hook

Gold owner. GATA member since '04. Ron Paul supporter. Thinks Bono is a Bozo.

He passed.


¤ · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:36pm
backseatdriver · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:48pm


Yes I agree, as I alluded to this with the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) reference and the supporting evidence in the post that followed that with the congressional testimony. Scary stuff indeed, and worth acknowledging. Thanks for the link. 


¤ · Oct 4, 2011 - 10:51pm
cpnscarlet · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:02pm

Embry blog on KWN

We already have had some good KWN items today, but here's another from a man who helps me sleep well at night - JOHN EMBRY

¤ · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:05pm

Power shortages in China

China's power shortages to run through winter

Government: This year’s drought hit hydroelectricity stations hard

By Wang Xiaocong

BEIJING ( Caixin Online ) — Acute power shortages will continue in parts of China in the upcoming winter and spring seasons, particularly in the southern and central regions where most of the country’s hydropower power stations are located, an energy official told a press conference Saturday.

According to the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, hydroelectricity accounts for 16% of China’s total electricity consumption.

The volume of water available for hydro-power generation has in recent months fallen 30% to 40% from a year earlier.

Rainfall in the autumn is expected to be limited, which will no doubt affect the electricity supply in these regions this winter, said Hao Weiping, vice director of the Electricity Department, the National Energy Administration...

ewc58 · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:20pm

Who says it's Flori-duh? This sounds pretty smart to me

Breaking the law

In related news, bank robbers also reported they were worried about state plans to enforce the laws against bank robberies:

Effective Saturday, many of South Florida's "No guns allowed" signs are gone. That's thanks to a new state law imposing fines of up to $5,000 on county and municipal officials, and even threatening them with removal from office, if they enforce firearms and ammunition restrictions other than those spelled out by state statute.

The state legislation has been on the books since 1987. But because it did not contain any penalties until now, many local governments passed their own, more restrictive laws.

Now, do you suppose that the Federal Reserve and various federal agencies might be just a little more disposed to enforcing the various laws and regulations they are supposed to enforce if said laws and regulations came with penalties attached for not enforcing them?

Labels: law

Comments ()
Quixote2 · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:20pm

TF - this one is for you

Not available.
¤ · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:26pm

Taxi Driver - Monkey Man (graphic)

Taxi Driver - Monkey Man - The Rolling Stones
NW VIEW · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:26pm


It looks like the time from now until the elections are over are going to be in a pressure cooker. This current wave of protesters are not going to go away and new groups will be continually forming as the economy fails. When we see a million person walk on Washington D.C. and the people at the head of the line have an old battering ram, then the government is finished. If and when the markets are destroyed, the only thing left for currency is your stash. We know that a large portion of the protesters would like to invade Wall Street and if enough people storm the castle there will not be one scrap of copper wire left in the pits that has not been cut to pieces. knowwhatImean?

Dr G · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:29pm

cpn, yeah, love me some

cpn, yeah, love me some Embry. Love that he calls out the EE for what they are -- the cartel. Good stuff.

I'll also add that whoever (according to Embry) is buying Maples at 38 when spot is 31 is a doofus. Premiums aren't $7...yet.

UncleFester · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:31pm
¤ · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:33pm

U.S. lost their AAA/everyone else will get lowered to compensate

Euro Weakens, Most Asian Stocks Drop on Italy Rating By Shiyin Chen and Yoshiaki Nohara - Oct 4, 2011 10:38 PM ETWed Oct 05 02:38:54 GMT 2011 Euro Weakens Versus Dollar, Yen

Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg

The euro was at $1.3324 as of 8:25 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3349 in New York yesterday.

The euro weakened against the yen and dollar while Asian stocks fell after a downgrade of Italy’s credit rating added to concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen. Commodities rose for the first time in four days.

The 17-nation currency fell 0.7 percent to 101.85 yen and lost 0.5 percent to $1.3286 at 11:20 a.m. in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.4 percent, erasing gains of as much as 0.6 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures declined 0.4 percent after a rally in the U.S. stocks gauge in the final hour of trading yesterday. Oil jumped 2.5 percent in New York, while copper increased 1.7 percent in London.

Moody’s Investors Service cut Italy’s grade for the first time in almost two decades and said other European countries rated below the top Aaa level may face reductions in their rankings...

UncleFester · Oct 4, 2011 - 11:40pm


But...but...but...Three Rivers Gorge!


CreditCrumbs UncleFester · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:01am

China Dam

Problems with huge hydroelectric dam:

1. They often do not deliver their projected electrical capacities. The reason is that after the huge dam is constructed, climate changes and rain pattern changes.

2. Water evaporation increases in the huge dammed lake, leaving less available downstream. In the case of 3-gorges dam, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia become increasingly vulnerable to reduced water available for irrigation. 

3. Silt deposited in the dam, rather than downstream, depleting soil nutrients in the river delta. 3-gorge dam over tens-hundreds of years will reduce agriculture output in Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, just like Aswan dam did to Egypt. 

4. Massive change on earth surface to hold the lake water cause geological pressure in the underlying rock structure, causing earthquake in Sichuan province. 

There is no free lunch. 

S Roche · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:05am

Bruce Krasting is a guest

Bruce Krasting is a guest poster over at ZH.

I think everyone should read this

Remember when the Swiss pegged their currency to the Euro. That was a Big Fucking Deal. Bruce explains why.

Get your minds around that and be happy you own phys, and take advantage of these take downs to buy more. With CME accepting gold as collateral (just upped by 2.5x) and the currency wars really kicking off it looks to me like someone big, (like with 80% of the derivative trades in gold), wants to use the limited time that the paper price affects the physical price to clean out GLD... 

Anonymous TF · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:05am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Bay of Pigs · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:06am

SEC/CFTC caught red handed

The Flash Crash cover up is a complete farce. Now maybe when someone brings up the stonewalling and corruption at these institutions people will listen? Oh, can someone please forward this to Toby Connor? LOL.

European American · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:11am

The Psychology of Predicting the Markets

It seems we're entering a whole new paradigm, concerning the uncertainty associated with predicting volatile markets, whereby "seeing into the future" will need to be based on incorporating an entirely new understanding and language that integrates the various multitudes of Personality disorders (of those running the show) in to how those disorders directly interrelate and influence the pulse of the financial world. 

Personality Disorders; Their Effect and Influence on Global Financial Markets 101

Narcissistic Personality Disorder: Its Effect and Influence on Global Financial Markets 201


To understand the present, various global markets behaviors, we need to comprehend the disconcerting reality behind the demented minds of those creating the trends. Otherwise, until a full scale social and economic revolution removes them from power, we will have to continue to abide by their unpredictable "rules".

Hammer · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:12am

  Sorry, after reading all

Sorry, after reading all the comments today, couldn't resist this one I saw the other day :) Very tongue in cheek

exiledbear · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:12am

If you want to know what a bottom looks like

Trolls everywhere, general pessimism, bearish TA charts, etc. Not calling a bottom, but we're really close to one. I look at the ebay ticker and prices are holding up a lot better. Last trade was 1790 at 9:40pm.

I hate to call bottoms, but one of the keys to look for to tell if you're past one, is if the pessimism grows out of proportion to the decline and the decline makes a higher low. That's the classic textbook case of being past a bottom. Harder to spot than it is to type it out though.

Patience and discipline, people. Don't let this bull market beat your hands off your position. I've seen this before. Don't do something you will regret later.

Anonymous ewc58 · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:17am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

BUDDHA PRINCESS · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:29am
Matt Foley · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:42am

Video / Black dude / BOA

Its an old video folks. 8/13/11 , trying to induce panic anyone?

ScottJ · Oct 5, 2011 - 12:44am

When is the end of the dollar?

We all know that gold prices are going to go through the moon, but when is the question everyone wants to know?

A timeline of when the dollar will perish and an approximate target (~somewhere over $10,000) should help give understanding to where we are in this cycle with respect to the endpoint, and thus when will such a level be achieved. It may very well be achieved in the final days of the dollar retaining its role as a currency used for goods and services, shortly after the dollar is dethroned from the world reserve currency. The unwind of this will be of epic proportions.... and cause those who wish to seek safety to flee into physical tangible assets that the world is wanting in increasing demand... even at "higher prices" (silver too... poor man's gold).

The eventual reality will be that dollar bills will lose confidence in totality.

Be aware of this situation, because the end point is clear, it is the journey on how we get there and how long it takes that we are all trying to describe.

When I make predictions such as 80-120$ physical silver by the end of 2011, and $2500-3200 gold by the end of 2011.... and 300-500$ silver in 2012, and 7000-10,000$ in 2012... it is because I believe that the dollar will be extinct in the last months of 2012. I also expect a push for a new global currency in this time period.. offered by those who led us to this situation....

The spiral of dollar decay will perpetuate upon itself, gaining momentum and just waiting for the striking blow. Just look at treasuries with all-time low yields, and foreign countries dumping en masse... even Israel... an obvious display of of the reality of the situation, with the central banking crew buying all of these debts en mass (QE to inifinity). Ummm.... this will not end well...

When things happen they will be quick, and they will catch the majority off-guard. It is up to us to be prepared and to have the solutions as individuals, for those who speak with unawareness risk leading others astray from the challenge in front of us.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales