TFMR Podcast #3

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 9:50pm

As you know, my plan is to release podcasts on a bi-weekly basis. The next scheduled interview will be posted on Saturday, the 8th. However, this afternoon I had the opportunity to visit with Bill Murphy, the chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, commonly referred to by the acronym GATA. Obviously, it would be silly to make you wait until next Saturday to hear it.

Given the extraordinary events of the past week, I could not have asked for a better time to visit with Bill. I must ask, though, that you thoroughly read the previous post, "Crime Scene Evidence", before you listen to the podcast. To gain full value from listening, you must place current events in the proper context.

Bill and co-founder Chris Powell have done extraordinary work on our behalf for over 10 years. They need our support. When you have time, please visit their site. It is brimming with information that will help you through the turbulent times ahead. Before leaving the site, I strongly encourage you to make a donation to help them in their efforts. Every penny you provide will help GATA continue the fight against the evil C/C/C.

You should also visit Bill's subscription site and even consider joining.

OK, onto the discussion. Like the previous podcasts, you can access it by clicking the link below. It's about 25 minutes long and well worth your time. Enjoy. Think. Learn. Prepare. TF

p.s. The current manipulation continues tonight. Prices will undoubtedly continue to be pushed lower until our Buyer(s) of Size step forward to stem the tide. That said, I still do not expect considerable buying to emerge until silver falls toward $24 and gold falls toward $1500. Be patient and, more importantly, do not panic. Lastly, I will be out again all day Thursday so consider these two "sticky" threads to be your open threads until this time tomorrow.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Bay of Pigs
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:50am


Chart gazing will only get you so far in this sector. In other words, ivars could be blow out of the water just like the rest of us. EW'ers like Prechter have been wrong far more frequently than those you just criticized over at KWD.

If I was you, I'd be buying physical at these depressed prices, but to each their own.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:54am

OC15 I'm with you. 


I'm with you. Bikerspade and MolleyRatchet were quick to pick up on Ivars predictions and I encouraged it. Having said that, please note that Ivars has as recently yesterday altered his predictions again. This is because his graphs are a composite of statistical probabilities combined with an integration of the geopolitical climate. This is not science, its art applied to science, a different animal. Please don't go to other extreme with this gloomy picture. The truth is we are always reframing the picture as new information comes in. As much as we need comfort from knowing the future, we can only deal with probabilities, not the full range that possibilities imply.

argent rampant
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:56am

OC15 I agree with you

that one needs to be able to see both sides of the coin, so to speak. I often see references to "trolls" and cannot figure out, for the life of me, who they're talking about.

KWN is 100% straight bullish optimism. I know that, but read it anyway. Cheerleading is often helpful!

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:56am

No reaction is a good reaction?

Some news today to send PM both ways - Greek bailout (Again? says Rocky), Jobs numbers, Bernanke's comments yesterday. Action this AM is just more of the same...little up in Asia, sawtooth in London, little up then generally down in the COMEX. Again, someone's in control and it ain't us.

I for one am sticking up IVARS charts in front of my face for the time being. If nothing else, Ag moves after 4/2012 give me a warm feeling.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:58am

They look absolutely giddy / Why?

EUROPE IN CRISIS | Euro-zone economic gauge falls


German Chancellor Angela Merkel prepares to vote Thursday in the Bundestag.

Germany's parliament
backs bigger EFSF fund
Final tally points to overwhelming approval in the Bundestag, with 523 members in favor; 85 against.
Roadmap to euro salvation won't be pretty
Greece and euro zone’s worst-case scenario
Euro trims gains after German EFSF vote

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:58am
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:58am

"Price action makes Market

"Price action makes Market Commentary" -- Bill Murphy


Perception Management! That is what I am talking about. I just found a new phrase to utter around to people.

Thanks Bill, and Turd.


We can see the level of power these people have.... where else are they in our society? A question worth looking into if you wish to discover the rabbit hole in which we are living within.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:59am


You pays your money and you takes your chances....

You're planning no growth in silver (OK silver to stay in the 30's) until April '12.

I'm betting there is growth to at least $50 before April.

Good luck to all in these markets.

argent rampant
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:00am

@OC15: BTW...

NO WAY silver stays in the 30's for the next 7 months. But I agree with your point about listening to all sides.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:04am


Where are IVARS updated charts?


I'm not saying guys should be exactly right 100% of the time but if you've been in metals as long as these guys you would think they'd have their finger on the pulse of that market a little better. You call for a rocket through $50 in weeks and instead it loses all of 2011's gains in 3 days? C'mon. Credit to Turk for calling the August gold spike and take credit he did but come on and take your medicine when your calls go upside down. Don't come on and explain to me what happened, come on and own up to your busted calls.

Further, there is no more money to BTFD.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:07am

The PPT: back in the limelight again

RANTING ANDY - By now, it’s pretty obvious financial market manipulation has been stepped up to historically UNPRECEDENTED levels. Not just in Precious Metals, which have been VICIOUSLY attacked in every instance of political and financial upheaval, but stocks, bonds, and currencies as well.

PAPER Gold and silver have been decimated with an intensity making the May silver attack look like child’s play, while the world’s most unattractive asset, the U.S. T-Bond, soars to the stratosphere via “Operation Twist”, i.e. QE3 by another name. Moreover, the currency pits have deteriorated to a point where volatility is exceeding that of stocks themselves, a shining beacon of the final stage of fiat currency decimation.

Of course, at the center of it all is the most urgent of all manipulations, PPT support of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yes, gold will eventually be the Achilles Heel that destroys paper currencies, but the Dow is the most critical tool in the Behavioral Finance toolbox, an index which simply CANNOT be allowed to plummet at the rate of the rest of the world’s markets.

Read More

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:10am

OC15 .... could not agree more ...

Well said OC15 ... anyone else on this blog site state that silver would run up to $45 - 50, then come down to $20 - 30 in and stated it March of this year, then show it !!! The guy predicted it before May timeframe ... when the so called EE brought it down. Interesting, now how in the world could he possibly know that the EE was going to do this ....??

I believe Ivar has a lot to bring to the table .... don't place all you bets on him, he is providing guidance, however I would not close my eyes to his information either.


Sep 29, 2011 - 11:13am

@better and better

I would have said no way in January if someone had told me silver would only be $30 in in October.

@Marblesonac - the size of my stack doesn't change whether the paper price goes to $100 or stays at $30. I'm just saying consider that possibility and I'm willing to listen more to a guy who has had a pretty accurate model so far.

Dr G Tom L
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:14am

Wonderful comments from Tom

Wonderful comments from Tom L:

"This whole smackdown has been an 100% engineered from the ground up by the NY/London crowd to cover the short-term, day-to-day, needs of the markets"


"If the EE/Cartel could get gold to $1100 and ounce, they would have. Period. That is the way they defend their monopoly power to print money. The problem is that they're not completely in charge of the Gold price."

​Those are all the more reasons that newbies should not be buying or attempting to trade AGQ. Can you imagine if AGQ followed the performance of an Asian silver fix? Now THAT would be swell.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:14am

ScottJ, by the way

Bill and the GATA guys often refer to the term "Behavioral Finance", as Andy does above.

The is the "science" behind Perception Management. As you've become fond of the term I thought you might like to know about BF too and how GATA uses the 2 to describe what the EE does in this area.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:14am

Downtrend Channel

For those who keep dissing TA, it's not quite as useless as a lot of people claim. What you see might not always be pretty, but there are trends to watch for when Lady Silver isn't being dropped down an elevator shaft. Granted those drops are usually unpredictable and throw all immediate TA out the window, but personally that's not reason enough for me to quit using it all together as it still works on a day-to-day perspective. I'll use TA rather than flipping a coin to guess which direction we're going.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:17am

How much longer will this continue?

Robert Ford, U.S. Ambassador To Syria, Pelted With Tomatoes

BEIRUT — Supporters of President Bashar Assad stoned the convoy of the U.S. ambassador to Syria as he arrived for a meeting with a leading opposition figure on Thursday, then pelted him with eggs and tomatoes and tried to break into the building while he was inside, the opposition activist and a U.S. official said. The American envoy was trapped in the office for three hours by the angry mob outside.

Ambassador Robert Ford, an outspoken critic of Assad's crackdown on the 6-month-old anti-government uprising, was unharmed and eventually escorted out by Syrian security forces, who showed up more than an hour after the attack began.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:18am
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:20am
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:21am

Fantastic Munich

Fantastic Munich National Opera night in the NHK Hall in Tokyo tonight and just got home. The 4 hours flew by and ended up sitting a short few seats away from the Crown Prince of Japan...seems like a nice bloke. Then came back to find the Germans had agreed (apparently) the package........shurely shome coincidence.It will be interesting to see how the au market finished this week....over or under 1605 as per Armstrong's thoughts

Dr G
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:23am

Next stop should be $27.50

Next stop should be $27.50 for a little stay. Time it load up (again). Geez I wish I had some fiat to spend.

silver foil hat ¤
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:24am

@ DPH is anyone watching...

starring Sulu as the CFTC and Uhura as, well, .....

Uhura pwns Mirror!Sulu
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:29am

EndlessMountain: 9/29/11 Silver Volatility

09.29.2011 - Silver Volatility at dangerous support; Nine Reasons Dow Crashes in October

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:30am

Great interview, Turd.  It

Great interview, Turd. It was very encouraging.

$24 and gold falls toward $1500

I've got a little more cash just in case, but I don't think so. I've got nothing but my gut to go on, but I still think the $26 we hit the on the overnight Sun/Mon was the bottom. It might go sideways for quite a while and even test 26 again, but I'm personally expecting a long, slow slog uphill against a determined foe.

Of course,the fact the I know absolutely nothing will exonerate me if I'm wrong.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:42am

awesome sunrise

are you catching that on the westside Bay?

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:43am

You know I was just thinking

You know I was just thinking out loud to myself. Respectfully, I can count on both hands the people on this forum that actually know what their talking about and still have a few fingers left over.

The rest is just noise.

Everyone screaming $24 and $27 dollars silver as SLV breaks toward $30 again. Ok sure go with that.

Happening exactly as I said it would, everyone runs short and into Puts and Bang..SMOKED AGAIN!

Hold your positions folks..This is not over till its over.

austrian12874 OC15
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:44am

@OC15 Re: Ivars

I agree with you on Ivars charting. Although he doesn't necessarily have time on his side to establish a track record, I can't deny that he has been spot on with his charting and his calls. I also agree with you that I'm sick of hearing KWN and its stable of analysts predicting the moon for precious metals prices. I'm not listening to these people anymore.

According to Ivars's chart, if silver hits 100 next year...I'm cashing out of ALL my PMs. Then I will go short from 100 and then buy phyzz again at 55 and cash out again near 100. After that, I will never invest in PMs again or have minimal exposure at the least.

I'm just sick of this crap.

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:44am

Let's see gold under 1600 and Silver under 30

Let's see gold under 1600 and silver under 30 in US normal trading hours before we start talking 27.5 and 24.....

I still see this going on.... a bounce off of support where it was suppose to come in....1584 and 29 (higher than 28 which I thought it may go to). Who knows what is going on in the equities market these days... all window dressing. The equity market will come down when they are ready for it to come down.

Tuesday was comex options expiration day and today is comex settlement day..... we seem to have lost touch of this because of the large price movement..... but these are usually cyclical lows for gold/silver. Combine that with the fact that we got a retest of gold's 100day MA, and an attempt at its 200day MA.... and I would find it really hard to believe that we run into another round of selling to go lower.... if it is even selling that is going on in the first place (and not just a bunch of algorithms manipulating our perception of what is going on).

HeNateMe OC15
Sep 29, 2011 - 11:45am

@ OC15

As far as waking up to a possibility of gold and silver trading low through April, sure that's a possibility. So is the possibility of gold going through 2000 by January. They are all possibilities. We live in a universe impregnated with possibilities!


(I edited the first version of this posting because I believe I was too aggressive. Something I am trying to work on.) :)

Sep 29, 2011 - 11:46am

Just came across Alf Fields

Just came across Alf Fields on video at a Gata meeting 2005.


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