TFMR Podcast #3

Wed, Sep 28, 2011 - 9:50pm

As you know, my plan is to release podcasts on a bi-weekly basis. The next scheduled interview will be posted on Saturday, the 8th. However, this afternoon I had the opportunity to visit with Bill Murphy, the chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, commonly referred to by the acronym GATA. Obviously, it would be silly to make you wait until next Saturday to hear it.

Given the extraordinary events of the past week, I could not have asked for a better time to visit with Bill. I must ask, though, that you thoroughly read the previous post, "Crime Scene Evidence", before you listen to the podcast. To gain full value from listening, you must place current events in the proper context.

Bill and co-founder Chris Powell have done extraordinary work on our behalf for over 10 years. They need our support. When you have time, please visit their site. It is brimming with information that will help you through the turbulent times ahead. Before leaving the site, I strongly encourage you to make a donation to help them in their efforts. Every penny you provide will help GATA continue the fight against the evil C/C/C.

You should also visit Bill's subscription site and even consider joining.

OK, onto the discussion. Like the previous podcasts, you can access it by clicking the link below. It's about 25 minutes long and well worth your time. Enjoy. Think. Learn. Prepare. TF

p.s. The current manipulation continues tonight. Prices will undoubtedly continue to be pushed lower until our Buyer(s) of Size step forward to stem the tide. That said, I still do not expect considerable buying to emerge until silver falls toward $24 and gold falls toward $1500. Be patient and, more importantly, do not panic. Lastly, I will be out again all day Thursday so consider these two "sticky" threads to be your open threads until this time tomorrow.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 29, 2011 - 9:19am

You'd think it was the freakin' energizer binny...

Pre-open rundown. PPT Goosing DJ again this morning... go figure. But DJ has no shame.

Doctor C seems uncertain:

POSX meandering:

Ag hanging above 30 so far:

Gold? holding over 1600 but we can't have that box green, now can we? Verboten.

Tom L
Sep 29, 2011 - 9:26am

1Hour Gold Chart

Has a triangle formation that the price looks trapped in a zone between two downtrends. A move to $1640 here would negate this short-term pattern. Not that any of this means a freaking thing with OI numbers this low and margins this high. Push this market just a little and it falls to where they want.

If gold opens above $1635 vs. the NYSE open in 5 minutes we may have our clue as to where the short-term price is going.


Sep 29, 2011 - 9:26am

Wait... vas iss los???

Hey wait, we said NO green!

Sep 29, 2011 - 9:26am

5 minutes until a flagrant beatdown

Is the SEC, CFTC or anyone watching? Somewhere in a office, a paralegal or lawyer is watching and documenting on behalf of some clients against JPM.

Hold that thought and keep that smile simmering.

We could be a lot closer to a "Omg!" vertical moment then we think possible. In the meantime, the usual 9:30 is about to commence.

Sep 29, 2011 - 9:30am

Ouch Tom...

Sounds like it won't last eh? Oh well...

If that's the case I'm just gonna go hang with DPHazey today, watch music videos, and most def check out his collection of fine, rare weeds. I'm needing some organic pain relief.

Tom L
Sep 29, 2011 - 9:31am


More coiling at best. A Rundown to $1600 very possible.


Sep 29, 2011 - 9:40am

Said this yesterday.....

Said this yesterday..... looks to still still hold its validity.... a bullish signal imo.

And, @ TomL..

Go figure on the $HUI Bounce.... TA is useless these days.... to a certain extent....

I have noticed this too.... if you actually look at the US Trading Hours....Gold and Silver have been over $1600 and $30 during this downdraft.... and here we have a wave of people calling for sustained deflationary lows in gold/silver..... hmmmm.

Gold has not traded below $1600 except for a few minutes during US hours, and silver has not traded below $30 neither (during normal US Market hours). It is almost as if they don't want people pricing in these lower levels... but they still want the lows on the charts.......

As we speak we are moving back below 1600 and 30... in the afterhours..... the real question will be.... are we back above 1600 and $30 by open tomorrow in the US Markets??? If so.... you can be sure these prices are not here to stay....

Just saying.....

Sep 29, 2011 - 9:42am

With A Little Help From My Friends

The Beatles - With A Little Help From My Friends
Sep 29, 2011 - 9:49am

OT: Just donated to Ron Paul off Turd's ad link

Double dip awesomeness. Ad revenue for Turd, donation for Dr. Paul, listening to this excellent interview.

Gold up today, good for my paper.

Gold down tomorrow, please oh pretty please, looking for a 15xx handle to back up the truck on physical.

Sep 29, 2011 - 9:50am

remember, folks

we are in a market (PM's) that is first and foremost all about the MACRO.

short term charting and gyrations are sideshows. basically though i guess if you are real good (or more importantly lucky) you can make some $ there too.

the vote in germany last night was telling. so are the immediate ramifications of such (you know, in for a penny in for a pound?) each step further into the quicksand they take makes it more impossible for them to back out.

things in the PM world will be looking up. can't vouch for how things are gonna look for the rest of the world unfortunately.

larry and i the unknown with dead-on posts of late too. h/t.

Sep 29, 2011 - 9:53am

Looking for our daily troll

Had some fun arguing with the troll yesterday and I am looking for our next daily troll to show up. The NYSE opening metals beat down could be some form of signaling.

bemoosed ¤
Sep 29, 2011 - 9:55am

@DPH, G'mrng all

lol, read this as 'Gotterdammerung all' before I realized you meant good morning. Shows my mood. :)

Sep 29, 2011 - 9:55am

Some nice detective work, insights, and 2 + 2ing here...

Buy Metals at Bargain Prices

By Patrick A. Heller
September 27, 2011

"In early September, gold leases up to three months maturity turned to negative interest rates. That meant that a party leasing gold would not only not be charged any interest, the lender would actually pay money to a party borrowing the gold. Late last week, the six-month gold lease rate also turned negative. At the beginning of last week, the interest rates on silver leases up to three months maturity also turned negative. These are not normal market conditions. Typically over the years, negative lease rates have been tied into efforts to suppress gold and silver prices by artificially forcing physical metal onto the market. This gives the appearance (though not necessarily the reality) that there is more supply of physical metal, which intimidates potential gold and silver investors.

Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann said, “It is an open secret that numerous European banks would not survive having to revalue sovereign debt held on the banking books at market levels”. Several of the major banks are literally on the brink of collapse if they had to absorb losses on the government debt they hold. European central banks have to do something to contain this massive problem, but they have not been able to agree on which measures to take. I’m sure more hard news will emerge in the coming weeks as to what transpired over the past few days to knock down gold and silver prices. Without knowing just what further information will come out, let me now speculate on other possible events that contributed to the decline in precious metals prices.

First, it is entirely possible that European central banks of nations in the eurozone could be liquidating some of their gold reserves as a desperate move to beef up their fiat currency reserves to stave off default on their debts. If this is happening to any degree, that could help explain the why short-term gold and silver lease rates have recently turned negative.

Second, it is possible that the U.S. government may have informed the Chinese government in advance that is was preparing a major intervention to suppress gold and silver prices and asked the Chinese to refrain from jumping in to purchase physical metals until the market had been pushed near the bottom.

Last week a longtime reliable source told me that there were massive quantities of Asian buy orders placed in the London market to execute if spot prices dropped to $1,760 all the way down to $1,715. I have every reason to believe that at least a sizable percentage of these buy orders may be have placed by the Chinese government as this would be consistent with their trading activity since 2003. If the Chinese were alerted that they could have the opportunity to purchase gold even cheaper than their standing buy orders, it would be reasonable for them to cooperate by putting their buy orders prices in the $1,700s.

Third, it is possible that the U.S. government may have directly intervened in suppressing prices, through one or more agencies that are not drawing close scrutiny from Congress or the public. The prime suspect would be the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which was established in 1934. The ESF is an emergency reserve, not subject to congressional oversight, normally used to intervene (manipulate) in foreign exchange markets. In 1970, its mandate was changed by Congress to allow the Secretary of the Treasury, with the approval of the President, to use funds in the ESF to “deal in gold, foreign exchange and other instruments of credit and securities.” Thus, it would be possible and legal for the U.S. government to surreptitiously manipulate the gold market. The reason I consider this to be a plausible reason that gold and silver prices were suppressed is that the major beneficiaries of lower prices would be the U.S. government, its trading partners and allies.

On the basis of the hard information available early this week, it is highly likely that gold and silver prices were pushed down rather than fell as a result of free market trading. As I prepare this Tuesday morning, the price of gold is already up more than 7 percent from the bottom it touched in Asian markets early Monday, and silver is up more than 25 percent. Investor sentiment is not that volatile. You just don’t have gold and silver plummet then quickly rebound by such large amounts. However, manipulated markets can be that volatile...."

Tom L
Sep 29, 2011 - 9:56am


With respect, what you're seeing in these overnight lows could just as easily be the arbitrage between what the Asians think the price should be and what the NY/London crowd want it to be.

This whole smackdown has been an 100% engineered from the ground up by the NY/London crowd to cover the short-term, day-to-day, needs of the markets attached to gold.. ie. the T-Bond market and the EURO-Zone upheaval. So, I'm not convinced that this has anything to do with what you're saying.

If the EE/Cartel could get gold to $1100 and ounce, they would have. Period. That is the way they defend their monopoly power to print money. The problem is that they're not completely in charge of the Gold price. If the COMEX was the only place to trade gold, then $1100 would have happened.

No. Doubt. In. My. Mind. Comma. Dammit.

I think it's becoming more and more obvious they were close to a commercial signal failure on the COMEX of some form and needed to wipe out even more people who had weathered the earlier beatdown from May. The rally in July/Aug had their panties in a twist (all puns intended) and they had to do something to get the Silver/Gold situation under control among other things.

Gold was going parabolic and it had to be stopped. The fact that they couldn't bust it below $1480 is significant given what they threw at it. It's cold comfort to my current needs but, that's irrelevant.


Sep 29, 2011 - 10:05am

10:02a Pending home sales

  1. 10:02a

    Pending home sales index drops 1.2% in August

  2. 10:00a

    August pending home sales index falls 1.2% to 88.6

argent rampant rowdyboy
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:08am

Thank you, rowdyboy! RE: CFTC Will Face Lawmaker Scrutiny

Valuable information, IMO! (12:22am post) Perhaps an email from every one of us to Rand Paul and other subcommittee members will be for more effective than calling CFTC members. I'm definitely going to take that route.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:11am


Yesterday reading Greece was assured of its continued financial and economic standing within the EU though at what level of repression is still an unknown. These matters move so slowly that I sometimes would rather sit and watch paint dry, though I prefer to stack more goods.

Tom L
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:13am


Is looking really good since the crash. A small sell-off last night, but it's resuming it's post-crash march higher, now at $3.25. Not that this is good but that it's not completely freaking horrible. Let's watch DrC to see if it can regain $3.35 or so. $3.40 would be excellent. It looks overbought right now, so I'm not expecting that in the next hour or anything. By tonight or into tomorrow.


Tom L
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:17am


One angle that is not being discussed vis a vis Greece is just how much the Greeks hate the Germans and how much the average Greek is happy to default on the German banks. I was talking to a very good friend yesterday who is Greek, his wife is Greek and their families have major ties back to Greece and he was bringing this up.

It's the 800 lb. Gorilla in the room. The Greeks still hate the Germans for WWII and will not stand to become their financial slaves. Popandreau is going through the motions of placating these IMF/EU/ECB ministers, but at the end of the day, Greece would pull out of the Euro and stiff the Germans in a heartbeat.

Salt this commentary to taste, but definitely put it in your database when discussing this.


Sep 29, 2011 - 10:17am

QE X +1

Just read this over at ZH. I should have known they had something about his remarks. BB saying the below quote definitely projects his QE intentions.

"...he said that "the central bank might need to ease monetary policy further if inflation or inflation expectations fall significantly... Bernanke indicated a willingness to push deeper into the realm of unconventional policy if economic growth remains anemic. ""If inflation falls too low or inflation expectations fall too low, that would be something we have to respond to because we do not want deflation," Bernanke said.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:18am

Posting this again cause it's worth repeating - I'm with IVARS

Dude was uncannily accurate with his gold and silver calls. He's got silver trading in the 30's till next April. His models and timing were really very close on both gold and silver.

Also, I am about done listening to these KWN interviews. All these guys were cheerleading silver to $50 and gold to $2,000 within weeks. Now they are coming on explaining to everyone "what happened" or "why it needed to correct to form a stronger base" instead of owning up to mistakes in their calls.

Child Please.

How long have you guys been doing this? What is the depth of your connections in this industry? You couldn't see this coming after doing this 20,30, 40 years??

I'll tell you something else. It is good to have contrarian opinions in this forum. It helps keep people level. Some of you guys hand out troll cards like they are going out of style when people challenge Turd or have a different perspective on the situation. There is alot of cheerleading that goes on in this forum. I participate in it as well. Time to wake up to the possibility that gold and silver are not going to the moon on our desired time frame. If some of you don't consider this as a possibility for the coming months you will become depressed.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:20am


All indicators should point to a decent rebound for PM.

General market is up, oil is up 2.5%, Euro is up against USD
and Europe is going to print to "bail out" Greek...and Gold
can't even hold 1,620 and Silver can't hold 30.50.

Are we looking at another leg down here? Gold seems to be
holding 1,580 and Silver for 29.0 level overnight. Man, i
really hope it will visit 1,680 first before we see 1,580

Any potential factors could move PM on Friday or next
week, one way or another...could some gurus shed some
lights here?

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:21am

better and better

That my friend is a downright terrific idea, you have your thinking cap on.

Who would we rather have make the case, Rand Paul, or Gary Gensler? Granted, it's a real close call there (not).

Way to go, you should see many more h/t's for that one...

Absorbing Jr.
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:24am

Top Notch Interview!

Thanks Turd! It's so great to be a witness to your growth process! From those humble days as that guy with the yellow hat on Zero Hedge, and then your little blog Along The Watchtower, to your new site (you could have stopped right there), and on to world class interviews. The world is undergoing the true price discovery of The Great Turd himself!

Thanks for sticking with us through thick and thin. You rock buddy!

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:25am

Buying Opportunity

It's not often I go to bed hoping that Silver goes down; but I wanted to make a purchase (today)
& haven't. When it first fell; I was disappointed & then opened my mind to the buying opportunity;
just sitting tight, right now & if it falls, I'll jump in for some more.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:27am

Obama's election campaign poster released...

Good to see that tagline still has relevance.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:31am


If I were Germany, I would bail out of the EU and go it alone and let everyone else pound salt. I think eventually that is the way this goes. Just not quite yet. I think Germany is foolish to extend it's neck out like this.

The EU busting apart would serve China's need/desire to fund Europe with USD. It seems unlikely that the EU as a whole would take China up on any bailout offer as we are now seeing.

However, a busted up EU and individual countries will be very susceptible to any offer of help from China as it will be every country for itself at that point. I can easily see that happening once the EU splits apart. That's when the divided loyalties and simmering memories of long time hatred will become dangerous.

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:37am

In case you missed it...

A. Rastani on CNN Full Interview

Submitted by Boardwalk on September 29, 2011 - 8:36am.

Justin linked a clip of this interview yesterday. This is the full monty.

argent rampant
Sep 29, 2011 - 10:37am

CFTC faces congress on OCT 6

Just re-posting the info rowdyboy put up at midnight. Wanted to be sure everyone got it:

CFTC To Face Lawmaker Scrutiny:

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has yet to complete Dodd-Frank Act limits on excessive speculation, will face scrutiny about the trading curbs at an Oct. 6 hearing led by Senator Carl Levin.

CFTC chairman Gary Gensler will testify at the hearing of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, according to a statement released by Levin’s office today.

(Rand Paul is on this committee)

Sep 29, 2011 - 10:50am

Which thread to follow?

Anyone else having trouble keeping track of which thread to follow for the latest market commentary? It could just be that I'm a dumbass. If so just tell me in simple language what I should be looking for. Right now there are 2 stickies and the Max Q post (which doesn't seem active anymore). What's the general consensus around here?


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)