Another Tradable Low Coming

Wed, Dec 6, 2017 - 11:33am

The divergence from the USDJPY correlation illuminates The Bullion Bank effort to smash price below the 200-day MA and flush out as many Spec longs as possible before the next rise. We saw this is May and in July and we are seeing it again now.

I have no doubt that what you are about to read is correct.

Since last Monday, when the USDJPY was forcibly rallied from below 111, the total change in this all-important HFT driver is 130 "pips"...from 110.90 to 112.20. After discovering and then closely following the yen-gold correlation for over three years, we've learned that a one point move in the USDJPY generally correlates to a $10-12 move in the price of Comex Digital Gold. The current 130 pip move should thus translate into roughly a $15 drop in Comex gold. Considering that price was $1298 last Monday, the current price should be around $1283. Instead, I have a last of $1267. Why the 2X difference?

It's simple. Over the past several days there has been a concerted and coordinated effort to rig price below the 200-day moving average. And why have The Banks taken this action? In order to engender the same type of Spec long liquidation seen in May and July of this year and displayed on the chart below from October 24:

The CoT survey of last Tuesday gave two alarms that allowed The Banks to trigger this current action.

  1. The Large Spec NET long position in Comex gold had reached 224,417 contracts. This was the highest level in 90 days.
  2. The Large Spec GROSS short position fell to just 62,967 contracts. This was the lowest seen since 9/6/16 and thus the second-lowest level seen since 2012.

Judging that the CoT was ripe to be flushed, The Banks took action, striking yesterday at 9:07 am EST. Note the 12,000 contract dump that finally shoved price well-below the 200-day. The selling action that took price another $10 lower in the three hours that followed was brought upon by Spec long liquidation upon seeing price fall below this critical technical indicator.

Today, price continues to meander lower, even though USDJPY is down, because of this continued Spec long liquidation. Just as we saw in May and just as we saw in July.

Given the false pretenses surrounding this current manipulation, I have no doubt that another bounce and rally is both Comex Gold and Comex Silver.

Let's start with Comex Gold. Note that the May and July lows came with an RSI of near 30 and price about $40 below the 200-day. A similar low next week would peg price near $1240.

Personally, I have a hard time believing that price will fall that far before bouncing but, if it does, there's a another good reason to expect a floor there...the 200-week moving average. On three occasions earlier this year, price has fallen to this key long-term indicator and on all three occasions, price quickly reversed.

In Comex Digital Silver, the picture is just as clear. There can be no doubt that the Banks have aggressively capped CDS at it's own 200-week moving average on every attempt to move higher over the past 18 months. As you can see below, this is clearly NOT random, free, fair and natural price action:

However, another look at the same weekly chart reveals the resilience that CDS has shown every time it reached down toward $16. Additionally, check the massive, long-term reverse head-and-shoulder pattern that is forming:

So, quite obviously, there is another tradable low coming. Will it lead to the final breakout move toward $1400 and $22? Maybe. However, this next low is coming and why wouldn't it? Consider just this brief list that will impact the demand for gold exposure in 2018:

  • The geopolitical risk of war with North Korea, war in the Middle East and cold war with Russia.
  • The inverting US yield curve leading to undeniable recession.
  • Fed promises of more QE and even negative rates in the next slowdown.
  • Political risk in the US as calls grow for impeachment and the pending 2018 elections.
  • Continued de-dollarization in China, Russia, the rest of the BRICS and the Middle East.
  • US government shutdown and political discord

Given all of the uncertainty that lies ahead for 2018, prices for Comex Digital Metal are headed higher not lower. Prepare now for your next tradable opportunity in both Comex metals and the mining shares.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Angry Chef
Dec 6, 2017 - 1:54pm

Global vaccine cartel wreaks destruction: the evidence

And all this time I thought AIDS came from two green monkey's having bum fun in the forest.

Dec 6, 2017 - 1:57pm

Live coverage of the LA

Live coverage of the LA fires...which are about to get MUCH worse as winds pick up to 70 mph tonight...can be found here:

and here:

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:19pm


By Tamara Audi
LOS ANGELES -- A series of large fires across Southern California continued to grow Wednesday morning, leading to the closure of schools and a major freeway and forcing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes.
In Los Angeles, a fire sparked early Wednesday morning is threatening some of the country's most expensive real estate.
Videos on social media showed motorists on the busy 405 freeway driving toward hillsides that were completely engulfed in flames. Part of the freeway remained closed.
The Getty Center museum and Skirball Cultural Center both closed for the day, as have dozens of Los Angeles area schools, as thick plumes of smoke obscured the skyline.
Some residents of Bel Air, home to celebrities and millionaires such as Elon Musk, have been ordered to evacuated.
"These are days that break your heart," Eric Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles, said at a Wednesday morning press conference. "We have four structures that we can confirm have been destroyed, four homes."
Meanwhile, fires across Southern California this week have already consumed more than 80,000 acres, fueled by Santa Ana winds and months with little rain that left brush across the region dry and ready to burn.
More than 4,000 firefighters were working to control the blazes, but the major fires were still at little or no containment, and fire officials said the high winds and low humidity were likely to last at least until Friday.
The largest fire -- the Thomas Fire in Ventura County -- jumped the 101 freeway Tuesday night and reached all the way to the Pacific Ocean. That fire has burned into the city of Ventura and has destroyed at least 150 buildings, a total that fire officials expect will rise.
Fire officials compared the Thomas Fire with the Tubbs Fire, which tore through Santa Rosa in Northern California in October. That fire killed 22 people and burned more than 5,000 acres, making it the most destructive fire in the state's recorded history.
Write to Tamara Audi at tammy[dot]audi[at]wsj[dot]com


and I was feeling sorry for myself regarding the mining shares...pitiful !

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:25pm

Upside Down and Inside Out

And .. while the precious metals are firmly suppressed .. BTC surpasses $13,000.

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:31pm

Rickards says Gov't shutdown possible

Jim Rickards: There is A 55% Chance Of A Government Shutdown On Friday

December 6, 2017 20 3736

Jim says a government shutdown is not priced into the market at all, and this could send gold soaring…

by Jim Rickards via Daily Reckoning

Markets Are Unprepared for a Government Shutdown

Will Republicans and Democrats agree on a budget, and avoid a government shutdown after midnight Friday?

I’d say the odds are 50/50. Actually, I put the odds of a shutdown at about 55%. There’s certainly enough substance here to be wary.

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:36pm - yesterday

The idea presented in the article below is that, in this chaotic world, more specs simply want to be long.
Not saying specs can't be flushed further but, I am one who feels that way exactly.
Hysterical claims from letter writing gurus aside, COMEX does set the worldwide phyz price,
Therefore creating a cost for themselves when price declines.

"For at least the past decade the behavior of the people who trade gold futures contracts – and thereby determine the metal’s price – has been generally predictable: The “commercials” – big banks and companies that buy gold to do things with it – have suckered the speculators – mostly hedge funds who chase trends – into going very long and very short at exactly the wrong time.

ut this year the action – as portrayed in the commitment of traders report (COT) – has departed from the script. After taking on near-record long positions early in the year, the speculators have barely scaled them back from levels that are extremely bearish for gold. Meanwhile gold, instead of tanking as recent history says it should, has been treading water.
And now both the speculators and the commercials have started ramping up their current bets, with speculators going from very long to even more long and commercials going from very short to even more short.

Here’s the same data in graphical form. Where historically the silver bars on top (speculator longs) and the red bars below (commercial shorts) would be expected to converge at the middle of the chart, they’ve diverged and stayed far apart. So the speculators have not been washed out and instead are becoming even more bullish.

If history still matters (a big if in today’s world) the COT trends point to a bad six or so months for precious metals. Though – and this might be the rationale for many speculators – the global financial system has become so fragile that betting on a crisis that sends capital pouring into safe havens is now a permanently good idea.

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:36pm

gov't shutdown

that's all well and good but in actual fact the odds of that causing gold to soar are exactly zero.

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:42pm


After seeing this ad everywhere yesterday, I finally saw it here at TFMR last night.

If it appears on your TFMR page, too, you should consider reading it. Kind of interesting.

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:46pm


Egon is calling it a the equivalent of a chain letter! Buy gold.

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:49pm


Noticed a lot of discussion overnight re what appears to be a surge in EFPs...another 21,000+ yesterday.

We can try to discuss again in today's podcast but, for now, here's a page from the CME:

Koos wrote about this last year, too:

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:05pm

An odd thought about wormholes yen to Bitcoin

1 Bitcoin is currently 1427414.17 Yen.

With Japan's adoption of Bitcoin as a unit of exchange in business, coupled on the China quasi-ban exchanges and use, there are plenty of Bitcoin business' that moved over to Japan.

Here's the wormhole; Bitcoin's display of the slowly deteriorating Yen eroding the yen to dollar position with HFTs adjusting gold as it goes along.

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:08pm


Only 487K more to go and I can start thinking about faking my own death..... Can't wait.

Angry Chef
Dec 6, 2017 - 3:17pm

Why The Globalists Need A War, And Soon

I agree that they want War but I still don't think it will happen in North Korea.

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:18pm


it's hard to take serious a guy with a bad comb over

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:18pm


You and your twit-cons oughtta get a room.

Angry Chef
Dec 6, 2017 - 3:28pm

Russiagate Becomes Israelgate

The authour of the piece is a former CIA Operations Officer.

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:29pm

Silver $15.99

It would take an act of god for silver to be allowed to go back above $16 today. The crooks have bolted the door shut at $16.

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:37pm


I already have a room and I'm sharing it with your sense of humor. You should come join us so that you two can get reacquainted with one another!

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:51pm

Largest Crypto-Mining Exchange Confirms It Was Hacked

Largest Crypto-Mining Exchange Confirms It Was Hacked, Over $50 Million In Bitcoin Stolen

"Unfortunately, there has been a security breach involving NiceHash website... our payment system was compromised and the contents of the NiceHash Bitcoin wallet have been stolen"

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:56pm
AGAU Markedtofuture
Dec 6, 2017 - 4:13pm


What's to stop nice hash saying they were hacked after they had cleaned out the Bitcoin themselves? I thought this stuff was " unhackable"

Dec 6, 2017 - 4:25pm

The war on gold continues...

"We mentioned in Part 1 that there is a clue in the Financial Times article that demonstrates the statists’ fear that they cannot prevent broad scale interest in gold from developing among the people. The FT article argued that due to dealer commissions, physical gold is more expensive than its electronic counterpart. It also stated that physical coin dealers are dangerous because they are “exploitative” and “shady.” The conclusion the author reached for his dear readers to follow was this: “More gold will be traded electronically,” because if one is going to buy gold, electronic products are the better deal.

This is exactly what the increasingly concerned Deep Statists are trying to steer people into doing: buying electronic, not physical gold. They appear to realize that they might not be able to control the gold price for much longer, and that if the price gets away from them, the Cryptocurrency Effect will be activated in gold. If that happens, a price Vesuvius lies ahead. The volcano, they cannot stop. All they can do is misdirect the people’s money into their phony electronic gold products, to sterilize and control those funds. Then, when the price does explode, they will force customers to accept involuntary cash settlements and close out the electronic acounts. The customers will get fiat currency at the precise time when it is plunging in value, and the statists will keep any physical gold they might have purchased with customers’ funds.

As Sun Tzu said, in war, you must know the enemy and yourself if you intend to win. We hope that our article has helped readers know the enemy a bit better. The next task is to know yourself; to ask yourself, “Given what I know, what should I do?” In our opinion, and this is just our personal point of view, not an investment recommendation, which we are not licensed to provide, the fact that the Deep State elitists are stopping at nothing to discourage you from buying physical gold is the precise reason why you should buy it. And if this article has resonated with you, then you probably also believe, as we do, that the time to financially prepare yourself is getting short. The current intensity of price maneuvering and manipulation in a broad variety of markets implies that the center is losing hold, and that something wicked this way comes."

From Stewart Dougherty article:

Dec 6, 2017 - 4:31pm

"A Conspiracy History of the World"

I've never heard of Andy Thomas before, but this is a great lecture I stumbled across that he gave about conspiracy theories in 2013. There's some things here that even Bollocks wasn't aware of - maybe many Turdites too.

Andy links them together with historical facts quite brilliantly, in my opinion. A long one - 1hr 40mins in total - but the whole lecture needs to be viewed to see how it unfolds.

Something to send anyone who still has any doubts that governments are not looking after us and would never attack their own people, and that there isn't a single group behind it all, pulling all the strings.

A Conspiracy History of the World, Andy Thomas
Danforth Coxwell
Dec 6, 2017 - 4:36pm

A little know security...

feature of Au is its specific gravity of about 23.

Dec 6, 2017 - 5:07pm

Nicehash Hack

Don't forget that that the NSA and GCHQ (in the UK) monitor and record all online activity. Encryption is not secure, it only creates a barrier to those who don't have root access to a system.

Hacking Bitcoin exchanges is not an issue, should TPTB wish to collapse it (I personally believe they invented it), and I suggest this will happen before the collapse of the dollar.

Having conditioned us to become familiar with cryptocurrencies we will then be forced to accept a gov't-controlled cryptocurrency as the new world-currency.

That's what their aim is. End of cash, end of all anonymity. Total control by a few.

Gold and silver will skyrocket for a short period of time during the transition.

Dec 6, 2017 - 6:37pm

Retirement and investment accounts? You'll want to read this

While Huffpost isn't my usual fare, this is pretty important. Has to do with represtentation of agents and broker, and the FIRNA demon of arbitration.

A Hidden Danger Few Investors Understand

Joseph Warren
Dec 6, 2017 - 6:57pm

Trojan Horse ?

What is the banksters plan ? Are cryptocurrencies a Trojan Horse ?

Dec 7, 2017 - 1:02pm

What Did Half a Bitcoin Buy Today?

For me:

A bag of $100 face junk silver dimes

One 2017 Canada Call of the Wild Elk 1 oz. gold

One 2016 Canada Call of the Wild Roaring Grizzly 1 oz. gold

One Saint Gaudens Gold Double Eagle MS-64

One Liberty Gold Double Eagle MS-64

(Actually, it was 0.41345772 BTC)


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