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More Commitment of Traders Perspective

47
Mon, Jul 24, 2017 - 10:33am

We all saw a lot of commentary and "analysis" over the weekend regarding the latest Commitment of Traders report. Again, these numbers are most important when considered through the lens of historical perspective and that's what we attempt to show you today.

It's going to be a long and busy week. From Fedlines to Durable Goods to GDP...there's a lot going on. And Lord knows what lies ahead politically and geo-politically! Here's just a brief summary:

The metals have begun the week just slightly to the upside and this is nice. More on this later today and as we go through the week, of course.

However, for today I'd like to simply concentrate on the two charts below. Again, the only real value in analyzing the CoT reports is in being able to reference the current positioning versus historical data and price. For me, the best way to do this is to simply lay some data onto a weekly price chart.

Let's start with Comex Digital Gold. If you listened to last Friday's podcast, then you know that:

  • At 157,094 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest seen since the survey taken July 28, 2015
  • At 153,064 contracts, the Gold Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since December 1, 2015
  • At 73,635 contracts, the Gold Commercial NET short position is the smallest since January 26, 2016

But how does this all appear on the chart? Are these levels historically significant? Please take the time to expand (and perhaps print) this chart. Take a good, long look and decide for yourself.

Now that's all very interesting. However, where the historical perspective really jumps out at you is when you consider the chart/data combo for Comex Digital Silver. Again, as of the report released last Friday and surveyed last Tuesday:

  • At 81,400 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest ever reported. In fact, the size of this position is now 27% greater than the previous all-time high of 63,993 seen on July 7, 2015
  • At 66,398 contracts, the Silver Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since August 25, 2015
  • At 88,312 contracts, the Silver Commercial GROSS short position is the smallest seen since January 19, 2016
  • At 21,914 contracts, the Silver Commercial NET short position is the smallest since September 15, 2015

As in CDG, if we plot some data and price together, the result looks like this. Again, please take some time to give this chart your full consideration.

So what does this mean? Well it certainly appears that chances are high we see some significant rallies from here. As important technical indicators such as moving averages get bullishly crossed, these massive Large Spec short positions are ripe for a squeeze. Shorts get covered (that's one buy) and then a long may be established, too (that's a second buy). All of this buying pressure will drive prices higher in the weeks ahead and this coincidentally falls right into line with our forecast of a failing 2017 narrative (GAN2017) and 2017 metal price highs in Q4.

Have a great day!

TF

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  47 Comments

mavens · Jul 24, 2017 - 10:34am

Hi Monkey!

silver10sguy · Jul 24, 2017 - 10:50am

Well done Turd! Looking forward to booking some profits in the miners. Wondering still the outcome of Andy Maguire's prediction in the coming days and weeks. 

· Jul 24, 2017 - 10:54am

Ole Turd is now the proud owner of ONE Sep17 silver $17.25 call. Cost me about $725.

ArtL · Jul 24, 2017 - 10:59am

3

· Jul 24, 2017 - 11:00am

Am patiently waiting for Pining to photoshop Hillary's maniacal face onto/into an image of a swiriling hurricane.

However, as everyone already knows, the new hurricane's parents actually named it after Sir Edmund Hillary...

indiana rod · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:23am

New Democrat slogan

(Thank you, Papa John---better ingredients---better pizza)

Better Skills

Better Jobs

Better Wages

Home delivery available

Call DNC and better skills, better jobs and better wages will be delivered to your door.

Jihk2431 · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:32am

this down so well. Good luck with your father this week and I hope Mrs. F is on the mend.

· Jul 24, 2017 - 11:34am
Jihk2431 TF · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:39am

An another interesting thread to this mosaic that is forming.

flipper22 TF · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:46am

I'm still getting set up so that I can buy a call in the futures market.

Jihk2431 · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:47am

Glad you brought this up. Again, WHY would Terry Duffy publicly proclaim this?

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8441/must-see-video

Angry Chef · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:56am

Somebody posted this in yesterday's thread. I listened to Turd and Rob Kirby being interviewed and have just finished listening to the interview linked below. Take 20 minutes and check it out. Great stuff. Not that Turd and Rob and the others weren't as well. Just saying. A lot of information in a short period of time.

https://www.davejanda.com/audio/DrJimGarrow072317.mp3

RickshawETF · Jul 24, 2017 - 11:58am

Gold and silver flat. Miners mostly red. Dollar flat. USD/JPY flat.

Is this that "calm" along the shore, before the hurricane arrives?

A good day to visit my LCS . . .

abundance · Jul 24, 2017 - 12:02pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-24/fbi-seized-crushed-hard-drives...

and this is happening in pm's as well, as more talk about cryptos happens, pm talk also is included and mention of the manipulation...repeat, repeat, repeat...works!!

lakedweller2 · Jul 24, 2017 - 12:07pm

Todays miner algo prices.

garth · Jul 24, 2017 - 12:27pm

What happens if the divergence continues? Can it?

On every chart I look at now - 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 1 hr, 4 hr, 1d, 1week, 1 month - gold is higher.

fluxplus · Jul 24, 2017 - 12:42pm

Turd, bonds are weak today and yields are going up with gold and market doing nothing. Any thoughts about this?

canary · Jul 24, 2017 - 1:25pm

My hopes are very limited...and I focus more how resilient the metals are.

OI (final)

Gold Future -17,379 (31,036 out of Aug 17....12,863 moved into Dec 17)

Silver Future +127.

fluxplus · Jul 24, 2017 - 1:27pm

Bonds a bit weaker on somewhat positive economic datapoints. CDG holding in quite well even with USDJPY bounce back above 111. This is likely due to some technical buying because of price being above all three MAs.

fluxplus · Jul 24, 2017 - 1:57pm

Miners are obliterated today with gold, silver and market doing nothing. Wonder why?

garth · Jul 24, 2017 - 2:06pm

It does seem strange that the miners are down but if we consider Turd's post today with the attached charts, it implies that the specs in general are suckers. Obviously, that's a very general statement but to whatever degree it is true and it seems to be, then we could make the assumption that some of these specs are shorting and/or selling the miners.

My board with all my smaller cap miners looked a little funny the past week with half of them doing little to nothing and others up 10-30%. (So I've sold the ones that have gone up like Americas Silver and Excellon and moved that money into Kootenay Silver which has a very low price right now.) 

Angry Chef · Jul 24, 2017 - 2:21pm

Oh, oh...Expect a false flag or ISIS invasion any day now Bolivia.....

https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Morales-Declares-Total-Independen...

Dr. P. Metals · Jul 24, 2017 - 2:35pm

So, Greece is still a country? I thought it had collapsed and folded up at least 10 times now. Andy H prophesized it would take things down with it (several times).

But there it is, still a country:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-24/greece-returns-bond-market-present-its-last-group-bond-buyers

who knew...

Jihk2431 · Jul 24, 2017 - 2:39pm

low volume micro juniors have not moved that much. Gold Mining Inc. getting a nice bid today - might credit that to the Ameduri clan emails that went out today.

benque · Jul 24, 2017 - 2:43pm

Although I applaud any country giving IMF the finger, then the boot, it should be noted that Bolivia is a non-bankrupt, "Hard-left" socialist state.

We use Venezuela as an example of what happens to any state so foolish as to go socialist, but Bolivia is thriving.

There are good and bad socialists and good and bad capitalists. I would think that a little bit of each of the good ones might yield a beneficial result.

By the way, I'm no fan of socialism, but do see a place for some socialism in any state.

Jihk2431 Dr. P. Metals · Jul 24, 2017 - 2:45pm

Until they have a civil war, their markets will not go to zero. Andy Hoffman is the king of hyperbole - the collapse of the system is a long and winding road.

Angry Chef · Jul 24, 2017 - 3:00pm

I agree. All countries need to get rid of the IMF ( International Mafia Fund ). And the term Socialism gets a bad rap. I'm not a Socialist either. But I do believe in public Banking. Is that Socialism to believe that in order to believe one's Country to be Sovereign. Then one's Country needs to issue it's own currency ? I think this is the key. You are not a Sovereign Country when you have to borrow from private Banks to fund your Country. 

On another note look at these two Public Welfare Bum's !!! Jamie Dimon and John McCain

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/charges-dropped-after-london-whale-acc...

https://investmentwatchblog.com/john-mccains-foundation-is-funded-by-sau...

OOOBuck · Jul 24, 2017 - 3:10pm

Can anyone imagine what Cuba might have achieved had not the world's greatest power and immediate next door neighbor.... embargoed the country for more than 50 years!!!

It's amazing that they survived at all.... many with their spirits still in tact.

Jihk2431 · Jul 24, 2017 - 3:11pm

Only about a 5% premium to current price, so seems like a good risk/reward trade off with the current set up. One of these days it will work :)

OOOBuck · Jul 24, 2017 - 3:15pm

but the Cubans continue to stand (united for the most part) against the U.S. embargo.

Propagandized? Brain-washed? I guess you could say that. We don't know what being propagandized is like because America has never experienced it.

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