The setup for the big trade

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argentus maximus
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She's an independent

She's an independent representative - unfortunately a voice the big party reps don't want to pay heed to..

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argentus maximus
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Cottonbelt21
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Strong Opinions, weakly held ...

… captures my investment mindset (h/t Mercenary Trader) – financial ‘gurus’ not worth the time & energy to sort out IMO (Truman quote of needing a ‘one handed economist’ comes to mind).

Thinking through investment strategies with a high probability of success, patience & listening to the market/trading what’s in front of you typically drive relative gains … the gold & silver trade represents one of those high probability outcomes from my perch.

Back to waiting patiently for the 'big trade' to unfold.

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1-2% rule time?

Usually when FED says sth to drive metals up they tend to drive it down quickly the next few days to kill off the excitement in the metals. Such pattern has been identified by GATA folks as the 1-2% rule. I suspect it'd come out this time again after Bernanke's latest U-turn on "tapering" sent metals soaring 2% on Thursday.

It's a mystery
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A bottom?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=1990-03-06&en=1990-11-14&id=p93650797643

Jordan Byrne penned a piece on the Comp's fall in the late 80's and the plunge in 1990...very similar to GDX. The link shows how the $comp bottomed. in 1990. It never looked back.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21751297063

Corsair
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GDX gaps

It's a mystery wrote:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=1990-03-06&en=1990-11-14&id=p93650797643

Jordan Byrne penned a piece on the Comp's fall in the late 80's and the plunge in 1990...very similar to GDX. The link shows how the $comp bottomed. in 1990. It never looked back.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21751297063

the bottom does appear in based on the monthly higher lows so far - still plenty of time to wreck that and my gut tells me one more dive below $24 to fill that gap up GDX just had. 

Do all gaps get filled?

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argentus maximus
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Today:  Gold, basis the Euro

Today:  Gold, basis the Euro ,looks like it's targeting a gap fill at 994-1000 later today. It meets a descending trendline about this point.  Today is an inflection day, therefore it has to breakout above 1000 or reverse into the consolidation.

Basis the dollar the equivalent level is 1310 - 1330.

The trend is up, but I'll take some swing gold off long positions about these levels today if this interim high materializes.

Next week or two:  There are enough human anger waves with peaks during the coming 2-3 weeks to support gold based on international dislocation. One of those anger-violence peaks is today and if things ease off after the weekend  that can be one possible reason for gold to ease off a bit too.

On a daily timeframe, the target  is about or just under 1350, and I hope that after a pullback, gold will make another push upwards, which can choose to be very strong, towards this price area maybe reaching it about 25th July. Then it can ease off towards the lower edge of the trading range we would then be in, making a mid August high on the way, towards an end August, early Sept low before rising again in a rise which can be very powerful.

An attempt at next 6 months to end Q4 2013: It that powerful rise just mentioned happens it makes a significant high end of October to early November, then gold falls very sharply and makes a significant low at year end, one target for that would be 28th December.

This post contains many separate precise sub forecasts. They are like dominoes ... if one fails to fall the sequence is broken and the entire forecast from that point forwards is cancelled by the failure to continue confirmation. Likewise inversions can occur, and if a high comes instead of a low, the following turns may be reversed or be replaced completely by the new scenario in place.

The market is the boss, not any forecast in words, but while the forecasts compare well with the unfolding market and tell the same story the implication is that the forecast may persist a little bit more.

.... Now we see what plays out.

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argentus maximus
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I might add ... some stock

I might add ... some stock indices are heading (apparently and so far) towards a top end of July, in the daily timeframe.

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It's a mystery
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Oh my

Dow and DOW trannies did not confirm SPX high. Just saying that with UPS slashing guidance there could be problems in teh equity market.

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synopsis

AM

You wrote in today's outlook for gold:

"a mid August high on the way, towards an end August, early Sept low before rising again in a rise which can be very powerful [perhaps making] a significant high end of October to early November, then gold falls very sharply and makes a significant low at year end, one target for that would be 28th December"

Just comparing that with an outlook for silver you wrote on 8 July:

"mid August trading range low and range buy pivot, a sell to go flat shortly after, a buy to catch an end of September rally into a beautiful bear squeeze and selling point, and the fall from there during October towards what might be the silver longside trade of the decade maybe just maybe with a GSR in the 90s" - you saw that major long term buy as falling in the last week of October or 1st week of November.

In just a few days things have gone out of sync/inverted (in contrast to the McBottom lows that were fairly constant, and remarkably accurate). Just wondering whether you see the new outlook as applying to both silver and gold (assume so as they are acting in lockstep recently). And if so, I'd be interested in knowing what the falling domino was that led to the new schema being favoured?

Not nit-picking, just keeping up with the natural changes of events as time unfolds. 

Thanks for what you are doing here! I've been checking your website and considering subscribing, depending how things go this summer...

argentus maximus
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It is the same seasonal, which the McB describes but it modifies

@Runrunrun

It is the same seasonal which the McB describes but it modifies slightly for this stage of the longer term cycle. I expect the arches change, losing their rounded look, and morph towards a lightning bolt zig-zag appearance for this quarter. It's basically an elliott wave 4, but has some variations peculiar to the gold market, eg an extended rally potential for the first or last sub-swing.

Not good to do charts of that which has not come to pass, but if I can find a composite parameter that draws my mental thought expectation for Q3 2013 I will post that, and it would provide some kind of possible date suggestions. I'll get back to this again later.

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Jakarta Expat
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Buying Gold and Silver in Singapore, a cheaper place

This appears to be brand new.  They claim to be the world's first physical precious metals exchange. 
http://www.sgpmx.com/

Their retail outlet and cheap prices: https://retailstore.sgpmx.com/

Singapore is semi-insulated from the West, so this may be much safer than Gold Money and BullionVault in a more unsteady scenario.  The fees are reasonable at 0.25% to buy and sell, with a 0.5% annual storage fee.  Plus, their storage is fully allocated/segregated, meaning you own particular pieces of gold, not a percentage of a gold pool.  Some people believe that allocated storage counts as "direct ownership" which means you do not have to report the holding to the IRS, but there is not a consensus on this among CPAs.  Could this be the best/safest third party gold storage solution out there?  The article below says that Jim Rogers buys gold on this exchange.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/world-s-first-physical/733258.html

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argentus maximus
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This is merely a guide to

This is merely a guide to measure change by, a conceptual wishlist of what might be if every sub cycle decided for the first time in history not to change it's current route . Consider it the way I see things at 14.Jul.2013.

Even the act of drawing these things can cloud judgment prevent "clean slate" observation and thought about the market, like writing about it, or being in a trade, objectivity is reduced.  Elliott wave counters know that the market is at many moments choosing from a selection of possible options for it's next move. Cycles and EWT are just ways to reduce the list of possible variants likely to get chosen.

This one places a major low at end Oct-start Nov. End of Sept is also credible, and end of December very likely IMO. So stretch it, squeeze it, tilt it up or down, and it will still function as something to compare with the walk forward price action.

The reason for more fractal jagged monthly swings going forwards are shown. It is the result of the descending trendlines, and the selling they release upon contact is enhanced while gold is moving across the trendline "lanes" towards the bear exit on the right hand side. But each time it hits one of those descending trendlines it turns back for a bit, creating a zig-zag based fractal for the coming months, classic wave 4 forms are to be expected.

The years after the present date are incorrect. It says 2013 instead of 2015. And that 2015 break by the way sort of illustrates my thinking that 2016 will be a high time for gold.

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fahrenheit451
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So you're saying gold will maybe get to 1700 by 2016?

That....would be a bummer.

argentus maximus
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Uh Oh. Err ... no - I didn't

Uh Oh. Err ... no - I didn't say that. I didn't say any price. Do I have to delete the numbers off the chart to avoid misunderstandings? 

Only an egotist or promoter would attempt that. Traders learn to be more realistic and accept what markets can do to make one wrong. You might benefit from watching the Don Harrold video clip about wishing for gurus and false expectations a few posts above once more.

The shape or form is what I am showing, only the form ..... the numbers ... they can be anything.  1700, 2000, 50000, whatever.

It is just an impression of a form which I will not be surprised if it shares characteristics of appearance to what comes.

You can stretch it, skew it, tilt it upwards, or tilt it downwards ..... it can skip onto the next dates after the ones shown or it can hop onto a nearer date.  A high can become a low. That uncertainty is the reality of markets. It is only the rough idea of a shape which I am communicating in my post.

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AM

Can you explain what is meant by "classic wave 4 forms"?

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argentus maximus
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There are many variations .

There are many variations . Mainly built of 3-wave swings.

Trading range. Triangle or expanding triangles common.

In  gold they have a tendency to have a false break at the end, then reverse into the genuine move.

This pic is two variants from Bertie Balan's excellently illustrated book The Elliott Wave Principle Applied to the FX Markets.

In a bear market consolidation those diagrams need to be flipped upside down.

Usually wave 4 is the last consolidation or pause in a larger trend, the swing exiting out of it is the last component of the main swing (wave 5) of which the wave 4 is a part.

To see several, look for an short term chart with a trend, look at the sub stages of the trend, find the trading range before the top or bottom of the trend. It should be 2/3rds to 3/4 of the way along the trend, located after the most vertical part of the trend. That will tend to be a wave 4.

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And here is the last

And here is the last downtrend in gold labelled (my count for this):

Chart is too big to show embedded, and will become unclear if I reduce it's size, so please use the link:

http://i1135.photobucket.com/albums/m638/Phisquared2618/Spot-gold-EW.png

You can see 5 clear waves in the downswing. Each wave in the direction of the overall trend (ie down) have 5 sub waves, and I've put red support & resistance lines to show it. The wave 3 down, the most vertical one, has subdivided into 5 sub waves (with a wave 4 marked) and it's sub wave 3 has also subdivided into 5.

So there's plenty of examples! Wave 5 of wave 5 of wave 3 can be clearly seen to have a 5 wave form, but I didn't mark that tiny wave 4. But there it is at 1250 on 26th June.

This is one of the ways I count the wiggles, but time is limited so I only did it here in this thread for the first couple of weeks or so. After that I decided to cover the medium and long term so I wouldn't run out of enthusiasm before the thread's job was finished!

Hopefully this post will motivate readers who can't to learn about Elliott Wave and then the posts by ENOUGH would have great usefulness for them.

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RRJJ
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AM thanks for your work as

AM thanks for your work as usual. Very much appreciated. Going to read through it thoroughly later today but is it correct that you are now expecting gold to take until late 2014 before turning up? 

Armstrong is as you know predicting a change in markets late 2015. What do you think of his theory and do you think your analysis is some what in line with his view?

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RRJJ wrote:AM thanks for your

RRJJ wrote:
AM thanks for your work as usual. Very much appreciated. Going to read through it thoroughly later today but is it correct that you are now expecting gold to take until late 2014 before turning up? 

Armstrong is as you know predicting a change in markets late 2015. What do you think of his theory and do you think your analysis is some what in line with his view?

I respect Armstrong's work. I became aware of him back in the 1990 when he was at The Foundation For The Study of Cycles and thought his Pi cycle was interesting. I probably check his blog every other month out of curiosity. It's not that fine in resolution. His PEI is weekly/monthly/annual granularity and that might be ok for large funds or sovereigns, but I am far more agile with tools to match I don't care much about it.

2015? A lot of things that are obvious now will unexpectedly become obvious to those currently in denial and in places of power by then.  The chart I posted at somebody's request shows breakouts prior to 2015.

For now the trend down is suspended, it's balanced with bias up, so any upswing may extend and take out the higher pivot which is the market's decision to choose. Downswings will be truncated for now, until we get to end of this stage.

Long term is not some grand map by argentus which is a concession to requests for guidance and comes with warnings that everybody then ignores. Long term actually = careful work on short term + then next short term + then the next short term after that, and so on .... this is realistic. Just trade the swings with due heed to location within larger trend is my simple advice.

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1970's gold bull market

I receive daily reports from a subscription. Along with him, many experts seem to believe that this correction in gold is closely tracking the mid-70's correction in which gold fell close to 50% and the blow-off stage of the gold bull market will unfold when it has completed.  The end of the correction in 1976 was followed by an 800% increase in gold price over the next several years.  According to old-timers, sentiment near the low at that time was as it is now. He seemed about as certain as one can be that we saw the bottom the last week in June and noted that the HUI going through 290 would be confirmation that the correction was over. However, like AM, he noted that this stage will present a new set of challenges - a market tends to go down with as many as possible on board but goes higher with as few as possible (wall of worry).  I'm old enough to remember the nightly news on major networks, before cable, quoting the price of gold as it increased everyday.  I knew absolutely nothing about investment, but even then, I figured out that gold was very important.

Did you see the spike down this morning quickly pushed back up with buyers?

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