Sunday Night Charts

Sun, Sep 18, 2011 - 9:00pm

It's been a long and crazy weekend but The Turd is ready to get back to work. I hope that everyone has taken the time to peruse the JPM class-action lawsuit information. Amazing stuff. Since the next CFTC meeting has been postponed to October 4, we'll have to make due with this information for a little while longer.

After a very nice rally on Friday, the metals look poised to have an UP week...for once. I'd suer like to see gold move ap and away from 1800 and drag silver along for the ride, up and through 41. For now, things look good but, as you know, that can all change at around 3:00 am EDT when the criminal LBMA opens.

Here are two gold charts for you. First, note the action on the 2-hour Dec gold chart. If gold can hold above the downward trendline overnight, it looks like a cinch to head back to at least 1850. On the longer term chart, note that gold is now beginning its seventh week above the old, three-year channel. Very impressive!


Next, check out these silver charts! First, on the 2-hour chart, note that silver has clearly broken through the first two possible downtrend lines and only has the one around 41.70 left to deal with. Again, if the metals can avoid preemptive Cartel attacks in overnight, silver looks poise to head up and tackle that line as early as tomorrow. Also, look at this longer term, daily chart for silver. That's a pretty impressive, long term channel I've drawn. Anywhere near that bottom line sure looks like a solid buying opportunity. The top line looks to be in the vicinity of $50 by December.


That's all for tonight. Turd needs his beauty rest. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


atarangi · Sep 19, 2011 - 2:13am

Turdle GG


Turdle GG · Sep 19, 2011 - 2:18am


i think you can say that the Fibonacci spiral is alive and well in nature!

atarangi · Sep 19, 2011 - 2:26am


Nice to see some seat of the pants, horse sense wisdom Jasper. You are an inspiration to me.

TheGoodDoctor · Sep 19, 2011 - 2:51am

KWN: Jim Rickards - Secrets

KWN: Jim Rickards - Secrets of QE, Gold & Currency Wars

So it goes in the currency wars where all advantage is temporary and it is always just a matter of time before the strong currency tries to get in on the debasement game that everyone else is playing. Since not everyone can devalue at once, every “winner” with a cheaper currency must produce a “loser” who gets stuck with the strong currency. At first it looked like Europe was the biggest loser but now China is beginning to assume that role. China will not tolerate it and has laid down two markers. It has told Europe that if they expect China to purchase European sovereign bonds to help alleviate the crisis, they must offer more favorable trading terms to China. And there is an implicit threat that if the euro does not strengthen soon, China could re-peg to the dollar, thus undoing what the U.S. had hoped to accomplish with its weak dollar policy.

The entire global system is at a critical juncture with sovereign bonds, currencies, stock markets and the fate of politicians all in play. The hidden purpose of QE and QE2 was always to cheapen the dollar by causing inflation in China and forcing its hand. Critics have said that QE did nothing to help with unemployment and consumption. But that was never the main purpose – the purpose was to weaken the dollar to help exports and get jobs that way, but it takes time. I removed QE3 from my set of expectations late in 2010 when it became clear that Fed rollovers were enough to keep the yield curve tame and, more importantly, China was finally starting to move on the currency. For now, QE3 is still off the table. But if the euro weakens and China re-pegs to the dollar as a result, that is the signal for more QE. It’s hard to know how this will play out, but at least we know what to look for. If you want to see QE3 ahead of the market, watch the euro.

Finally, it is not quite true there are no winners in a currency war. There is always one winner – gold.

Michael222 · Sep 19, 2011 - 3:45am

Nervous - mainstream

When the mainstream gets bullish on gold, you.....

Aram · Sep 19, 2011 - 4:26am



Aronnax · Sep 19, 2011 - 4:29am

Some PM-friendly headlines

Bernanke Joins King Tolerating More Inflation as Economies Fail to Revive

"Policy makers such as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may be challenging central-bank orthodoxy to replenish depleted toolkits and support recoveries at risk of sliding back into recession. Tolerating higher inflation may make long-term Treasuries less attractive while supporting stocks and commodity prices, said Jim Kochan, chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds. [...]

If adopted, the strategy might be called “Generate Inflation Now,” or GIN, Reinhart said, a reversal of the Ford Administration’s “Whip Inflation Now,” or WIN, program in the 1970s. [...]

Columbia University’s Michael Woodford and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff are among proponents of faster price increases, which should result in lower interest rates adjusted for inflation. This might stimulate spending, along with a side- effect of helping pare record debt loads."

Trial balloon? A shape of things to come?

And, of course:

Obama's $3T deficit plan is half tax hikes

Very little spending reform, let alone austerity, it seems.

SilverBoy · Sep 19, 2011 - 5:11am

Currency war is ON.

Goverments and banks they all don't care about PM price. Currency war between Eurozone and US is ON. Such a war is very bullish for PM, just be patient. At the moment Eurozone wins because EUR/USD is down, but wait for a Fed.

Thisisrich · Sep 19, 2011 - 5:52am

It's 3a EST and boom....

Heh, silver down ~$0.70 in an hour in two ~10 minute chunks. Damn Asians don't know what their doing bidding up the price over night. LBMA just showed them where the actual price should be. Ignoring this window, the action in PM's versus equities/commodities around the world over night seems instructive. Equities down hard and drifting lower all night, same for most commodities (oil, copper, foodstuffs, cotton)...Ag/Au stable to slight upward bias. This suggests folks retreating to Ag/Au as safe haven/money. Just a little tape painting of the PMs in the wee hours so that when the regular folk wake up, all they see is everything is down and react accordingly. (As I type I see silver pushing hard off the lows, nice)

TitanAe · Sep 19, 2011 - 6:56am

Any Ideas???

Does anyone have any idea why the super high volume on certain stocks before the close on friday. At around 330 I was getting email alerts on stocks I follow that they were exceeding there 50 volume avg ie slw,FR,Su and about 10 others. Slw alone traded over 20 million shares. It is kind of spooking me out last time I saw that happen was when Silver was beaten down around may.

Any ideas would help solve the puzzle !!

tburk jackinrichmond · Sep 19, 2011 - 6:57am

First Maajestic

No problems with the online store. Good price and delivery.

¤ · Sep 19, 2011 - 7:13am

Fund Withdrawals Top Lehman as $75B Pulled

Fund Withdrawals Top Lehman as $75B Pulled

Q By Whitney Kisling - Sep 19, 2011 3:35 AM ETMon Sep 19 07:35:30 GMT 2011

Investors have pulled more money from U.S. equity funds since the end of April than in the five months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., adding to the $2.1 trillion rout in American stocks.

About $75 billion was withdrawn from funds that focus on shares during the past four months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group, and EPFR Global, a research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Outflows totaled $72.8 billion from October 2008 through February 2009, following Lehman’s bankruptcy, the data show.

Bears say investors are abandoning stock managers because there’s no end in sight to the decline that pushed the Standard& Poor’s 500 Index within 2.1 percentage points of a...


DPH: Just wait until some of that money comes flying back into gold!

Shill · Sep 19, 2011 - 7:27am
Vincent · Sep 19, 2011 - 7:39am

Very important event for market GLD SLV

The LBMA (LPPM) Precious Metals Conference 2011

Le Centre Sheraton - Montreal, Canada

18-20 September 2011

The next LBMA (LPPM) Conference will take place in Montreal, Canada during the period 18-20 September, 2011. We are delighted to announce that registration is now open! To see the programme, click here or view the ebrochure for more information.


silver foil hat · Sep 19, 2011 - 7:42am

another speech

on the lighter side. I guess they can get away with more in Canada.

Try saying a few of these things in the US and you will be hung by the pc crowd....

Best Valedictorian Speech Ever
Larry · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:14am

@Bay of Pigs

Not familiar with Tom Stevenson, but his article on Toxic ETF's made me wonder why he would not name GDL and SLV. Is he just trying to be a generalist or is he trying to paint all ETF's (GDX, etc) with the same toxic brush?

Shill · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:21am
Michael222 · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:23am

Clear shortterm direction silver

At least it is now clear for me.

From KWN Dan Norcini:

Upside : 42.50, 44.00, 50.00 FAILED Downside : 39.00, 37.00 Source: Dan Norcini
Larry · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:31am

@DPH re: ESF

Glad to see you post Eric deCarbonnel's vids on the Exchange Stabilization Fund. I posted the same earlier this year but this site has grown so much it's certainly worthy of re-posting (maybe every week would be good). Last week I posted it again, this time as part of a Ron Paul website story. Perhaps it takes you, our resident video researcher to get this the attention it deserves. 

For one to know the 'enemy', they must know the big players and their weapons of mass disruption and manipulation. Or we might just refer to it as they do: "funding".

Another organization that needs to be understood by all here is the Bank of International Settlements. Not that we can do anything about them or the ESF, CIA, , etc., but it helps to know what we are up against. I'll leave all the dot connecting and conspiracies linked to these shadow organizations to others, who can bring their own understanding to these things, but websites and videos by deCarbonnel's and Carmack's should be required reading/viewing/investigation for anyone that thinks the EE is one dimensional and likely to "fall" with the rise of gold and silver.

SilverWealth · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:33am

Monkeys and Trendlines

Monkeys love to blow thru trendlines and spook retail out of all their positions.

Expect more of the same today. Expect as well that the Monkeys peruse many of the metal's blogs and know where best to break spirits.

Granny will be buying trendline breakdowns not selling them. When Monkeys target trendlines things go quickly on sale. Can't ever say for how long but patience is the name of that particular game.

Just my opinion and what do I know? 

¤ · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:55am

G'mrng all

Pretty sure were going to remember this week for a long time and it might be one that we look back on as a turning point.

In what way and to what extent, only Bernanke and the other CB's etc. really know.

Moderator Washington · Sep 19, 2011 - 8:57am


Please folks, let's stick to protocol when posting an article from elsewhere. Most of the time we are pretty good about it, but some few have been pushing the limits lately.

Don't be copying and pasting most or all of the article. All you really need is a teaser of some sort, plus a link to the original. Your teaser could be just the headline, perhaps write your own one or two sentence teaser, or maybe one or two short paragraphs from the article. That's all you really need. Enough so that people can decide to follow the link or not.

Thanks all, and keep up the good work.

Moderator Washington · Sep 19, 2011 - 9:17am


I didn't say you had to shut up completely!

20 minutes without a comment? On a Monday morning just before the start of trading?

Wake Up Out There!!

Vypuero · Sep 19, 2011 - 9:17am

Everything down?

Looks like the markets, commodities, and silver are all down, and gold is even. I guess it must be $ time again. Gotta get those 1.8% interest rates! Great deal, huh?

¤ · Sep 19, 2011 - 9:21am

Mark Steyn Alert!

For anyone interested.

He's going to be on Varney and Co. on FOXBusiness news this a.m.

Show just started.

Eric Original · Sep 19, 2011 - 9:23am


"Show just started".

I think you are talking about the whole precious metals bull market!!

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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