Timmy Tuesday

It's Tuesday. I'll try to have a full post by later today. For now, here's a new thread to discuss the day's events.

Today should be relatively quiet compared to what the rest of the week may hold. The FOMC concludes tomorrow. The ECB might offer a rate cut. And then, of course, the BLSBS is Friday.

For now, physical demand stories continue to proliferate. I'm unable to post links so, if you have any to share, please include them in the comments.

The GLD continues to evaporate with another 2.5 metric tonnes leaving yesterday.

And here's a fun story for you. I have a friend who used to work for one of the big, national accounting firms. Once a quarter, the firm invites back "alumni" for firmwide conference calls with financial bigshots. Last week, the "bigshot" was Tim Geithner. As my friend described it, these events are off-the-record and frank discussions where questions are taken from the audience and honest answers are given. The topic came up of the Great Financial Collapse of 2008. The questioner asked the Lehman weekend and TARP and then followed up with: "Was any thought given to simply nationalizing the banks?"

And Little Timmah said, quoting directly here: "There wasn't enough time".

Note that he didn't say: "HaHaHa. Of course not. This is America. We don't do those kind of things."

He said: "There wasn't enough time".

So, what happens next time...after they've had these 5 years to think and plan? Ponder that one for a while.

I'll be back later today with an update. Have a great day.

TF

251 Comments

Junksilver's picture

To Mr.Fix or anyone (getting silver later this fall)

Was wondering what the opinion is of getting silver this fall. I have a tiny stash (right under 300 Oz, mainly of semi numismatic coins look 90 kooks, 2002 sealed Pandas amongst other odds and ends) and feel really left out of what's to come.

had to liquidate most of my stash a year ago but will come across some funds this fall.

waS feeling good until recently where a Force Majure could happen and if not that then pretty much be near impossible to find any physical.

In a matter of weeks LCSs have been drained with physical (with high premiums) with a few remaining supplies left at the bigger online coins shops. Imagine how things will look in a few months from now?

my question is, it will be too late by then to get pphysical by this fall? My feeling is yes, unless one is willing to pay crazy premiums (imagine silver at $15/oz but with $30 premiums with months of waiting for delivery?)

i

Silver Monkey's picture

reply to @Bollocks re Where's Turd?

Turd had a great podcast on Turd Talks Metals, tonight.  He discussed the CME Chairman with his comments about how people want phyzz instead of gold certificates or paper.  IMO Turd Talks Metals is great and well worth the small fee to get to hear our fearless leader several times a week!

cpnscarlet's picture

Now Please be Honest..

Have any of you seen this correlation before?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-30/stability-japanese-bonds-signalling-golds-next-leg-higher

Looks pretty reliable. Why have I missed this over the past 18 months???

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Here's something you don't see every day…

Q:  Who's the hot babe posing as "Miss Lube Rack 1955"?

Nancy D'Alesandro Pelosi - MISS LUBE RACK 1955

Mudsharkbytes's picture

A:

Zoltan's picture

OMG (google is your friend)

Nancy D'Alesandro Pelosi - MISS LUBE RACK 1955

Z

Edit: You beat me to it, but seeing as you answered your own question I'll still take credit.

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Thanks, Muddy

I just lost my dinner.

Ferd

Pete's picture

Clive Maund vs. Ron Rosen

Both these market analysts have drawn trend lines on logarithmic charts for gold and come up with drastically different conclusions.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/maund042813.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/rosen042813.html

The structure of the decline from the all-time high in gold looks like a perfect ABC to me, and all the other fundamental and technical data (CoT, extraordinary volume, degree of rally back) support Rosen's vision, imho.

We shall see.

 

Green Lantern's picture

Re: Miss Lube Rack

Brought out this kind of feeling in me.

Adolf_Hitler's picture

@Bronsuchecki

You wrote:"While eligible is not "registered" for delivery, I included it because the fact that the owners keep it in COMEX deliverable form and in COMEX warehouses means they have an eventual intent to sell it back into the futures market."

SLV has allegedly 15.001,355 ounces of silver in JPM NY, which is a COMEX warehouse. So you seem to admit that SLV or JP Morgan, which is the custodian bank of SLV, wants to dump the SLV silver into the futures market, AKA, make delivery?

https://ebts.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebApp/ebts_downloads/BONY_SLV.pdf

If so many people want to sell physical silver in the futures market, then why is the level of registered silver so low? It's now 45,945,448 ounces. That's equal to the level of Sept 2006. 

The ratio of registered vs eligible is now 1:2.6. That's equal to the level of Q1 2001. 

Green Lantern's picture

Iceland’s Revolution Against Globalist Banksters

They gave the finger to the banksters, they had a revolution,  they forced their corrupt government to resign, they let the banks fail,  and they drafted a new constitution.

This shouldn't be that hard.  We don't have to rewrite a constitution.  Just revive the one we have.

http://leaksource.wordpress.com/2013/03/10/icelands-revolution-against-globalist-banksters/

bronsuchecki's picture

@Adolf_Hitler

SLV itself doesn't buy or sell metal, it is the Authorised Participants (AP) who do that. If there was selling of SLV by investors, then the AP's would buy those shares, tender the shares to SLV for physical ex-NY and then sell futures against that physical, which they would deliver into the future. This is just an arbitrage and explains why SLV would hold metal in a COMEX warehouse as it makes the arbitrage of keeping SLV's price in line with silver prices easier.

Any amount of SLV stocks in COMEX figures would overstate the coverage ratio as SLV stock is not available to the market, unless SLV holders are selling.

With your registered vs eligible ratio what you are missing is that it is just a book entry to change eligible to registered. So if you just look at registered and go OMG its about to run out, you will get caught because it is so easy for the seller (who has been "hiding" their intention to sell by hold eligible) to instantly switch to registered. That's why I prefer to look at both together.

DayStar's picture

Zero Hedge: There is a very

Zero Hedge: There is a very explicit link between the volatility of Japanese Government Bonds and the price of gold.  The last two weeks has seen JGB bond volume and volatility drop and gold rally as the correlation continues; and suggests notably more upside for Gold, especially as CoT data shows net longs remain extremely low.  Tyler Durden:  Welcome back recession--Chicago PMI implodes To 49 with the first sub-50 print since September 2009.  Harvey: Today, we lost 2.14 tonnes of gold of GLD. The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold will depart for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. SLV was unchanged.  GoldCore: Premiums continue to rise on physical product across the world to reflect a significant increase in demand and very tight supplies.  Physical bullion coins and bars for immediate delivery are not available in much of the world including in the Middle East and Singapore.  Bloomberg: Australia’s Perth Mint, the largest refinery in Australia and one of the largest in the world, said that demand has jumped to the highest level since the Lehman crisis in 2008.  The U.K. Mint said purchases tripled in April.  In Turkey, the fourth-biggest gold consumer last year, bullion on the Istanbul Gold Exchange traded at premiums of as much as $25 an ounce over the London spot price.  Jim Sinclair:  Despite the volatility in gold and silver, not only will any setbacks in the prices of PMs be short-lived, but we are now looking at the very real possibility of a major short squeeze in the metals.  Adrian Ash (Bullion Vault): Households had been investing heavily in gold, but money market managers and hedge funds continued to drive the price down.  DS: Cyprus votes 29-27 to commit financial suicide and support the ECB bail-in.  All this and more on...

The Harvey Report!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/305428#comment-305428

DayStar

JY896's picture

@ BoG -- Caterpillars

I sometimes wish I had whatever they assume the population is smoking...

Mr. Fix's picture

Dear Junksilver:

That sucks.

Seeing  that you are a member for only a couple of hours now, I sincerely wish I had better news for you,

but I don't anticipate being able to buy silver for even the prices you mentioned in the fall.

Worse than that, I don't expect that the money you are  anticipating in the fall will be worth much of anything, if you get it at all.

But who knows? Maybe the powers that be can drag out the economic collapse just for you.

Stick around, I'm certain that somebody more optimistic than me will be able to help you out with your dilemma, but I am fresh out of ideas, I might consider selling off some assets, and reinvest it in in the metals as quickly as possible, but I don't know enough about your situation to advise that.

It appears to me that gold and silver are quickly being removed from the market.

I'm currently focused on securing food, and gardening supplies, since they will probably appreciate in value even faster than gold and silver, plus you can eat.

Just a thought, even though I don't think gold and silver will ever be available at these prices again,

I hold the same beliefs for food. Stock up.

Monedas's picture

To blink (1) or not to blink (0) ! What's the question ?

Pucker Up is not in a coma .... he is communicating with his eyes .... by blinky, blinky .... to help defray his medical expenses .... he has taken a job at Bitcoin .... in the back room .... transcribing binary codes !  Kind of miss the old fart !       Monedas    1929     Comedy Jihad As Much As Monedas Is Capable Of Missing Anybody World Tour   devil    PS:  Condonish, Thanks for offering the role in Red Dawn III .... I'm more suited to play Sean Connery in a nursing home !  PSS:  Joggersnuts, You are preaching to a pretty well "prepped" choir .... hang in there !

lone's picture

post

after reading all posts i have to say why the fuck did i ever take the red pill

Adolf_Hitler's picture

@Bronsuchecki

1.       You wrote “AP's would buy those shares, tender the shares to SLV for physical ex-NY and then sell futures against that physical, which they would deliver into the future”.

Why ex-NY since they will make deliveries IN NEW YORK? Because ex-NY must mean England (London), then why not just sell the physical in the London OTC market?

The truth is: according to “Deposit of Silver; Issuance of Baskets of Shares” section of the SLV prospectus, “The trustee has entered into an agreement with the custodian which contains arrangements so that silver can be delivered to the custodian in England, New York or at other locations that may be authorized in the future.”.

You can deposit/withdraw silver in New York to create/redeem SLV shares.

Your statement is complicating the process.

2.       You also wrote “If there was selling of SLV by investors, then the AP's would buy those shares”.

No. When investors sell SLV shares, they just sell their shares to other investors. AP’s only step in and there is a significant divergence(premium/discount) between the SLV share price and SLV NAV(silver price). If the SLV share price tracks the NAV(silver price) closely, AP’s will do nothing no matter the SLV share price goes up/down.

3.       You wrote “Any amount of SLV stocks in COMEX figures”(eligible silver) would overstate the coverage ratio as SLV stock is not available to the market, unless SLV holders are selling.” And you also wrote “I prefer to look at both (registered silver and eligible silver) together.”

These 2 sentences contradict each other. You want to include the eligible silver to calculate the coverage ratio. And you also admit that including SLV silver, which is eligible silver, will overstate the coverage ratio.

Monedas's picture

DayCare !

Is Harvest Organ .... trying to take credit .... for the paper/phyzz price divergence .... we hoarder's did all the work .... and called their bluff !        Monedas    1929      Comedy Jihad This Is Paul Harvey Signing Off World Tour   devil

bronsuchecki's picture

@Adolf_Hitler

1. "ex-NY" means from NY, I did not mean from London. AP's will go for NY or London depending on where they did their hedging trade, and whether that is futures or OTC depends on the AP.

2. I thought by the context of my statement (that is, APs are involved) it was clear I was referring to net selling. Clearly if investor selling is matched by investor buying then AP's aren't necessarily involved.

3. They do not contradict each other, I admitted that any inclusion of SLV stocks is overstatement however that doesn't mean you throw the baby out with the bathwater and completely ignore ALL eligible as you want to, particularly when the SLV stocks are potentially in play if their is net selling of SLV. Eligible + registered it not perfect, but better IMO than just using registered.

Adolf_Hitler's picture

@Bronsuchecki

I don't know if you have a Bloomberg terminal or at least have some CPM silver yearbooks at hand. If you keep track of the daily inventory level of the Comex, you will find that adjustment from the Eligible category to the Registered category is not so common as you thought. 

A large part or even the majority of the eligible silver belongs to big clients like the SLV. They don't want to sell their silver in the futures market. They just use JPM, HSBC, etc as warehouses to store their silver and no more. 

boomer sooner's picture

Help for dumbass

http://s1286.photobucket.com/user/2014466/media/utf-8BSU1BRzA0MzcuanBn_zps0236202b.jpg.html][IMG]http://i1286.photobucket.com/albums/a606/2014466/th_utf-8BSU1BRzA0MzcuanBn_zps0236202b.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

I have been trying for numerous evenings to post a pic/chart with no freeeeekin luck.  Using android tablet with photobucket and fat fingers!!!

Might have to break out the laptop, but hoping not.

Thx

Edit - don't know if anyone else has the problem with the fonts and page layout changing for each new one

bronsuchecki's picture

@Adolf_Hitler

I side with the Doc on this issue, we'll just have to agree to disagree, see http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com.au/2011/08/q-with-doc-whats-difference-between.html

"The most emphasis on COMEX silver inventories is placed on registered, as technically, this is the only silver that is available for delivery to longs. Theoretically, if 34 million oz worth of longs stood for delivery in September, the COMEX would default, as only 33 million ounces of registered silver remain.

In actuality however, I believe that the TOTAL silver inventories are what matters. Eligible silver supplies meet exchange requirements- they are simply not currently offered for sale by the owners. Clearly this silver would become available at a certain price. I also believe it likely that the owners would likely be strong-armed or forced into converting their eligible supplies into registered should things become desperate for the cartel."

Junksilver's picture

Thanks Mr.Fix

One way I try to stay positive is telling myself is that I at least have 300 ozs of something better than nothing. I had to liquidate a few hundred ozs last year to buy a home (it has been skyrocketing oddly for the past 5 months as supply has dwindled practically overnight from so called Hedge Fund investors here in Vegas)

Got my home for $110k and home a few houses that is smaller sold for $145k recently.

I'm afraid you are correct, and deep down, I feel that the end game is here (fiat money gone, silver exploding due to elitists gobbling what's left of physical)

Thanks for the insight on food, much appreciated, because with the little money I have, I could start investing in food (organic seeds, canned goods?)

Not sure where to start or what to get.

For the record, my wife is Thai and her dad is going to give her a farm that has tons of Mangosteen fruit, rambutan and other Thai fruit.

Thanks Mr Fix,
And thanks for being dead honest on how you feel.

Animal Sacrifice's picture

NAVs of CEFs

Long, long ago a member (a saint) created and posted an excel spreadsheet showing the premiums and discounts to NAV of many of the major closed end funds (CEF, PSILV, et. al.)

Now that I'm back in these funds (in my IRAs) having access to it would be a great blessing.

Would anyone reading this help me out by sharing the link? Unfortunately I lost it over all those months holding PPLT.

Thanks lots.

Ibú Ayé fun o mi opolopo owo!

AS

AS

AS

Nick Elway's picture

@bron What is a defining physical-paper disconnect?

Thanks for your link http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2010/07/degrees-of-distrust.html  from 2010.  While your Phases 3 and 4 of distrust didn't envision the recent paper price drop I would guess today's removal of gold from "the system" puts us in your Phase 4 of distrust. 

The quote of yours that I commented on was your  words "I have been trying to kill this[physical-paper disconnect] meme ever since it first appeared in 2008" http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/chill-out-dudes.html

If you've been publicly and forcefully trying to kill an idea for 4+ years then I wonder (cognitive dissonance effect) what would be your threshold to admit the idea has some validity?  If the Perth mint was having to pay 10 per cent over the London fix to source bullion would that be enough?  Would 50 per cent be enough? When would you quit trying to kill the meme and instead support the meme?  Does the Perth mint count as a large enough buyer for its purchasing experience to be a valid measure?

In summary, if  it isn't revealing a trade secret, can you tell us if the Perth mint has (or has not) had to pay more than x percent premium for bullion for minting in the last 2 months?  At what x would you consider there is a physical-paper disconnect?

I appreciate your blog and your bringing good information to this site. 

Thanks, Nick

bronsuchecki's picture

@Nick Elway

The meme I've been trying to kill is the idea that the price of retail coins/bars is indicative of a physical-paper disconnect, not the idea of a physical-paper disconnect for wholesale forms of metal. This may not have been clear as I assume readers of that blog post are familiar with my prior posts on that matter.

We are currently not paying any premium for raw gold or silver. I don't think there is a specific level which constitutes a physical-paper disconnect. A few dollars wouldn't but $10 over spot would. What I am looking for is desperation by bullion banks when they are bidding for our excess (above coining and small bar needs) refining output, which could be indicated not just by what premium they are willing to pay, but say us being contacted by counterparties we don't normally deal with, wanting 400oz bars for shipment into London rather than kilo bars to Asia etc. Other factors would be backwardation.

I wouldn't say we are in Phase 4 because backwardation isn't there as described. A lot of Fekete's work is based on backwardation rather than just price drops (or rises) as the key indicator of stress, so I would place more emphasis on backwardation.

Bollocks's picture

Another collapse mirror

Lots of these have been appearing over the last 6 months or so.

---------------------

Dorset coast path collapse: 'Massive' cliff fall near Durdle Door

Cliff fall 
A section of the South West Coast Path in Dorset has been destroyed by a massive landslip.

Portland Coastguard said the cliff fall happened overnight at St Oswald's Bay, east of Durdle Door.

A coastguard spokesman said: "It is huge - a massive fall has taken out part of the cliff. It is rather extraordinary."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-22355538

Mickey's picture

Metals down again pre market

Just a feeling but with Fed announcing today this is a pattern we have seen before. It's usually quiet before announcement. 

Is a push down an attempt to close out more short position before an accommodative stance, or is a push down taking a short position?

with most econ data saying contracting economy, its going to be difficult for Fed to say we have a modest recovery.

Also, the USD is down a tad. 

There is just so much intervention going on in markets it's too difficult to have any good predictive skills.

SilverSurfers's picture

2nd Grade

good morning vietnam, silly tells you all, nirvana just smokes, el smoko baby, there are spirits in the sky, thank god, smelling blood to take down leviathan, blood is definitely smelt by a grandiose alpha werewolf in light speed, blood in the water, finally, seeing the light, after 13 freaking years carrying that damn cross, meh, yeah baby, and silly and so you all, maybe get what speaking in tongues is really all about, yeah baby, we za smoking now, main engines are a go go, but, the 2 grader literally sings at school this morning, singing for his lunch, so silly gots 2 hours just fooling with main engine on a go go, on the back page, so will now collect sparks of genius for organization and mortal presentations, so that it comes out somewhat intelligible, say in 2 hours to 5 hours, see ya, but rather than jump into the attack plan, today want to address the starring role of the STAR and the world of sharks, laters gaters, Silly is ready to rock again, so lets start the morning out right on jet fuel and the inspirational, you will need it, LMAO. Play it again sam.

And no, silly dont take drugs, and most have absolutely, no clue.

Meh .... tommy on timmy tuesday, for crossing Ts for the hat trick, eh?

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