Information Deemed To Be Reliable

Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - 5:00pm

The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable. However, TFMR Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.

Gosh, that sounds familiar. Where have I seen that disclaimer before? I know I've seen it somewhere...hmmm.

I've got it!! It's from the bottom of each day's "Gold Stocks" report issued by the CME. It didn't used to be there. In fact, the disclaimer was only added in 2013. Please see this excellent analysis from our pal DenverDave before proceeding:

So now that we've established that the numbers I'm about to present may be about as real as The Tooth Fairy, let's get right to it. Shall we?

Last week, there was all sorts of mumbling and grumbling about the 10 metric tonnes of eligible gold that had suddenly departed the JPM Comex gold vault. And not only was it a whopping 10 metric tonnes, it was a perfect and precise to three decimal points 10 metric tonnes. This once again means we're dealing with:

  • kilobars so perfectly shiny and new that they don't require any kind of weighing or assaying on the way in or out of the vault
  • bullshit paper shenanigans

I first wrote about this phenomenon about a year ago and, in doing so, kicked up a small hornet's nest of controversy. Please read here:

In response, I followed up with another post a few weeks later:

As you can see, I'm not new to this "perfect and precise" gold movement story. So, when I saw last week's perfect and precise, 10 metric ton withdrawal, it started me thinking. Not only was this par for the JPM course, last week's withdrawal also brought the total perfect and precise withdrawals over just the last month to 21 metric tonnes. WoW! That's a lot!

Below are the Gold Stocks reports that I've saved over the past year. I try to check them every day but I'm certain that there are days that I have missed. Therefore, there are likely other days where perfect and precise, deposits and withdrawals have been made but I've missed/overlooked them. Here are just 10 daily reports, showing a perfect and precise, no need to weigh or assay, 33 metric tonnes of eligible gold deposits:

Below are three reports from earlier this year showing a total of 25, perfect and precise metric tonnes heading back out:

And, over just the past month, here are four reports showing a perfect and precise total of 21 more metric tonnes heading off to points unknown:

Note that these last four withdrawals have reduced the amount of gold in JPM's eligible vault by nearly 1,000,000 ounces! This leaves JPM with just 176,436 ounces of registered gold and 485,757 of eligible. Even if every remaining ounce of eligible was converted to registered, this is only enough gold to settle 6,600 Comex contracts. A paltry amount given the total open interest and likely 10,000+ standing for delivery in December.

So, what in the name of Jon Corzine is going on here? Frankly, I have no idea and it's impossible to come to any specific conclusions but there certainly are some questions that need to be pondered:

  1. Again, is this all just bullshit and is that the reason why the CME suddenly felt compelled to issue the daily disclaimers? Are there really armored trucks driving around Manhattan, carrying two, five or ten metric tonnes of gold kilobars and heading off to points unknown?
  2. If all of these vault movements actually represent real, physical gold, then who or what went to the trouble of parking over 40 metric tonnes of brand new kilobars in JPM's Comex vault, only to remove them later?
  3. Why is JPM's Comex gold vault down to just 662,000 ounces? This leaves it as just the 3rd-largest. It's now dwarfed by Scotia and only 15% the size of HSBC.
  4. And why has JPM suddenly become a complete non-player in the monthly delivery process? Just last year, the JPM House and Customer accounts regularly accounted for more than half of the bi-monthly stops and issues on The Comex. This culminated in December when the JPM House (proprietary) account stopped a total of 6,254 contract or 96% of all deliveries that month. So far in 2014, JPM House has greatly diminished their participation and, over the past three delivery month, they've been almost entirely absent from the process.

These are all very important questions and, again, I don't have the answers. The CME has structured the Comex so that it's impossible to know for certain, regardless of what The Apologists are always claiming in their personal blogs. All we can do is project and guess, based upon accumulated wisdom and experience. We then have to wonder if our conclusions are even relevant. Do they even matter?

To that end, the only questions that stick in my mind are related to numbers 3 and 4 above.

Since it is easily verifiable that JPM has only issued/delivered 6,000 ounces of gold over the past five months, the primary question becomes just whom or what owns the gold that has been temporarily parked in the JPM Comex vault. Just by chance, we were able to catch 33 metric tonnes of perfect and precise deposits, followed by nearly 46 metric tonnes of equally perfect and precise withdrawals. Why was this gold parked for a while in JPMs vault? Where did it come from? Where is it now headed? Is this JPM proprietary gold and do these withdrawals, when combined with the greatly reduced delivery activity, indicate the JPM is on the verge of exiting Comex gold trading?

Again, I apologize for simply raising questions without being able to provide the answers. Perhaps the purpose of this post is simply this: If you think that The Comex is a shady, dirty and nasty den of thieves, then this deliberately opaque movement of gold into and out JPM's vaults will likely serve to reinforce that opinion.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:42am

Chinese Billionaire Signs

Chinese Billionaire Signs Deal for 100 year Takeover of Nicaragua’s New ‘Grand Canal’


Plans are afoot for a new Nicaraguan canal which that would dwarf the existing Panama Canal to its south, but the only problem is that the project will effectively partition central America’s largest lake.

Although the deal has been fast-tracked by the Ortega government, the local population do not support it at all, not least of all because the project will decimate Lake Nicaragua – the region’s most valuable natural resource.

Local residents are threatening nothing short of armed insurrection, if (or when) Chinese bulldozers show up: “There is going to be a massacre because we are not leaving our land, our lives, and we’ll fight for it until death.”

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:42am
Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:43am

Japan Goes “All In” On

Japan Goes “All In” On Quantitative Easing … Even though the Inventors of QE All Say It Destroys the Economy In the Long-Run

Posted on October 31, 2014 by WashingtonsBlog

Has Japan Just Signed Its Own Death Warrant?

Japan just went all-in on quantitative easing.

Bloomberg reports:

The Bank of Japan’s expansion of record stimulus today may see it buy every newbond the government issues.

The BOJ said it plans to buy 8 trillion to 12 trillion yen ($108 billion) of Japanese government bonds per month under stepped-up stimulus it announced today.


The central bank is already the largest single holder of Japan’s bonds, and the scale of its buying could fuel concerns it is underwriting deficits of a nation with the heaviest debt burden. The BOJ could end up owning half of the JGB market by as early as in 2018, according to Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo.

Kuroda knows when to go ALL in,” Okubo wrote in a note. “The BOJ is basically declaring that Japan will need to fix its long-term problems by 2018, or riskbecoming a failed nation.”

Indeed, the architect of Japan’s quantitative easing program said that QE harms the economy in the long-run. The original inventor of QE – and the former long-term head of the Federal Reserve – say that QE has failed to help the economy.

Numerous academic studies confirm this. And see this.

Economists also note that QE helps the rich … but hurts the little guy. QE is one of the main causes ofinequality (and see this and this). And economists now admit that runaway inequality cripples the economy. So QE indirectly hurts the economy by fueling runaway inequality.

Postscript: Japan almost appears to be acting suicidally these days.

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:46am



by James Quinn

Japan has been in a two decade long recession. They have 50% more debt as a percentage of GDP than any developed country on earth. They have a rapidly aging population. They have no energy resources. But their central bank does have a printing press.

The master plan announced overnight by their Janet Yellen – Kuroda – is to buy 8 trillion to 12 trillion yen ($108 billion) of [...]

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:46am
Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:47am


BREAKING BEDLAM…..BoJ to own total global wealth of minus $500 quadrillion as ScotNats to hold gun to head of EU


Most days I find numbers out there that belie the Molder & Scully stuff about it being The Truth.

And yet – extrapolating forwards – it appears that, in 2014 at any rate – the Truth is an X-file.

Perhaps until now, the only thing Scotland and Japan had in common was their admiration for Scotch Whisky. But as of today, the commonality is one of being in the vanguard [...]

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:53am

Warning Not to Use E15 Gas in

Warning Not to Use E15 Gas in Your Car: FOX Business

Warning Not to Use E15 Gas in Your Car: FOX Business

Click here: Warning Not to Use E15 Gas in Your Car: FOX Business - YouTube

As tax revenue from gasoline sales go down due to more fuel-efficient cars on the road, lawmakers in Oregon and Virginia want to implement a per-mile tax on all cars to make up for lost gas tax revenue. Is this proposal fair?

Courtesy of FOX Business News
Aired: 1/25/2013

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Courtesy of FOX Business News
"MONEY With Melissa Francis"
Aired: 11/30/2012
Content used with permission

An important gas warning from the AAA affects anyone with a car older than 2012. E15, a higher blend of ethanol and gasoline, is EPA approved and is now being sold in a handful of states. Auto expert and car spokesperson Lauren Fix, The Car Coach, appears on FOX to explain why E15 can actually damage your car, cost thousands of dollars, and void your car's warranty.

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 5:58am

Humpback Whale Flips Over

Humpback Whale Flips Over Motor Boat

Video unavailable
Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 6:07am

Humpback Whale Shows AMAZING

Humpback Whale Shows AMAZING Appreciation After Being Freed From Nets

Humpback Whale Shows AMAZING Appreciation After Being Freed From Nets
Putin DeSafe
Nov 1, 2014 - 6:53am

hump back

A new chart formation, Here first at TFMetals.

Putin DeSafe
Nov 1, 2014 - 6:57am

Hump back

Will the hump back developing on the usd jpy show appreciation or will it flip the boat . And for an up to the minute analysis here's turd ferg.

Putin DeSafe
Nov 1, 2014 - 7:13am

Thought so

Benny Hill

They said that it could not be done,
He said, "Just let me try."
They said, "Other men have tried and failed,"
He answered, "But not I."
They said, "It is impossible,"
He said, "There's no such word."
He closed his mind, he closed his heart...
To everything he heard.

He said, "Within the heart of man,
There is a tiny seed.
It grows until it blossoms,
It's called the will to succeed.
Its roots are strength, its stem is hope,
Its petals inspiration,
Its thorns protect its strong green leaves,
With grim determination.

"Its stamens are its skills
Which help to shape each plan,
For there's nothing in the universe
Beyond the scope of man."
They thought that it could not be done,
Some even said they knew it,
But he faced up to what could not be done...
And he couldn't bloody do it!

div As my cousin Lars Dean DeLake said to me, Anyone that calls you an idiot is no fool.

Benny at his beast. Sorry I forgot i was talking about Benny Hil, Benny at his breast. Fixed

Nov 1, 2014 - 8:16am

escrow overage check

Any bankers or mortgage guys in here? So my bank which will remain unamed sent me my annual escrow on mortgage statement showing year past and year future escrow payments. Attached was an over 2K escrow overage repayment check. Looking at my past year escrow payments there were two large amounts not regular monthly amounts. I have no idea where the funds came from as I made normal mortgage payments all year. Do I cash the check and look the other way or call my bank and explain this money isnt mine?

Way back in the day when ATM cards first showed up, 1979 maybe, my checking account had 150 dollars in it that came from nowhere. I went into bank explaining my account balance printed out on my new ATM print out wasnt correct. The teller politely told me the bank didn't make mistakes like that. I promptly withdrew all my funds including the 150 and changed banks.

Any ideas where escrow numbers that far off come from? thanks,

Putin DeSafe
Nov 1, 2014 - 9:09am

not sure

Ink in another 4 zeros and ask them to cash it, that should help answer the question.

No worries my pleasure mate.

Colonel Angus zman
Nov 1, 2014 - 9:31am

to zman

OK, I'm done with rolling in the mud after this one. You just want to try to insult the intelligence of others, and I don't need you for that. My subject kicks me in the teeth on a daily basis. Pull-string Barbie was right..."Math is hard."

But let's get some things straight. I don't claim to be omniscient. Rather I find one thing I can be right about, and I go with it. It has worked in the past. It will work with banks now. My guess is that you don't spend time with BIS regulations, may not know what VaR or Expected Shortfall are, and have no idea what the risk weights assigned by BCBS are. It's not important and can be looked up. However, I deal with each of these issues regularly and know them intimately. I'm one of a very few Americans to write on the subject. That and $5 will get me a cup of coffee at Starbucks. However, there's one thing I know right now, and that is that banks on several continents are in trouble. I could name the specific banks. It's not every bank, but there are many.

As for IoER, it's free money. Why take the risk of loaning out to citizens when they burned you earlier? If the free money train stops, they will go back to taking a little risk to make a little scratch. Bankers can't go without bonuses. I'm not the first to make this assertion. You need to read the people who have opposing viewpoints to your own. I do it all the time, and it is a useful exercise.

No, the Fed balance sheet isn't a mystery, and maybe you had problems reading to the end of the paragraph. The decisions that have been made by the Fed are NOT model-based...or when they point to some model it doesn't work, doesn't even predict well the things that have already happened. And they know from the beginning that it won't work. Whether it models reality or not, they use what will encourage them to commit the act they want to commit. We are all guilty of this from time to time.

I'd daresay that the predictions made by mathematics are better than the predictions made by humans hoping things will go one way or the other. I'm a bit of an Austrian, so I am with you that humans make decisions that can sometimes be questionable and irrational. However, I also know all about the Central Limit Theorem. I've studied game theory enough to know that people are either trying to survive or trying to maximize some utility function, a function which I may not understand or be able to model. And I only hope to model past behavior based on data. I know that gives me a chance to predict something in the future, but extrapolation is a whole lot more dangerous than interpolation.

I'm really much more reasonable than you'd like to make me out to be. Have at it...try to discredit me. That's your prerogative and your right. I just won't continue to roll around in the mud of ad hominems.

Nov 1, 2014 - 9:45am
Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 9:55am

Econocasts Trading

Econocasts Trading Models

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Posted: 31 Oct 2014 08:51 AM PDT

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model is predicting a very high probability of a turn to the upside in the next few weeks, based on the outlier Z-score greater than 3 "sigma.". If the reversal does occur, then gold prices should quickly rise to well above 1400 by the end of the year. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 9:58am

From David's DeskDavid

From David's DeskDavid Schectman

The Paper Market Is In Control Until It Isn't

October 31, 2014

Silver Eagle sales are going through the roof, but the demand is not U.S. retail centered. There are rumors of a big buyer in Europe. At these prices, silver sales are very robust (See article in Jim Sinclair's column today).

I was talking to Andy Hoffman this morning and he said the paper market is in total control of the prices. I said I disagree - sort of. The paper market is in control until it isn't. The minute that physical gold or silver can't be sourced at the suppressed (paper) prices, the physical market will control the price. Can that time be far off? I think not. And when it turns, there will be a large number of hedge funds that will be in a hurry to exit their positions and the way back up should be as rapid, or even faster, than the way down.

In today's Featured Articles section, there are several good reports on Alan Greenspan. I think the best of the bunch is in the Money Morning section. Be sure and check it out.

For those of our readers who remember Jim Sinclair saying that the Fed will never be able to stop QE, here is his latest thought on the subject:


I read today that the stimulus program was halted. I believe in QE to infinity, so do you see this as a temporary reprieve and/or propaganda to try to calm down Americans?


CIGA Jason


It will be reinstated under a different name in 3 months.

Jim, October 30, 2014

And finally, be sure and check out the first Featured Article from King World News about a report from Switzerland that money donated to help pass the gold initiative via a PayPal account set up to transfer it has been frozen - PayPal is silent on the matter. To what lengths will these criminals stoop to?


Today's Featured Articles

King World News (Powers that be have frozen the money intended for the Swiss Gold Initiative)

Money Morning (Understanding Gold's Massive Impact on Fed Maneuvering)

Jim Sinclair (Where should investors turn? "Greenspan said gold is a good place to put money these days given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by governments.")(Greenspan: Price of Gold Will Rise) (U.S. Mint Gold Coin Sales Near 60,000 Ounces In October - Swiss Gold Initiative Leading To Increase In Demand?)

Ed Steer (As Ted Butler always points out, it's not the price, rather it's the number of long gold contracts that JPMorgan et al can get the Managed Money traders to puke up---and how deeply they can guide these same technical funds onto the short side of the gold market.)

Zero Hedge (Santelli Slams The Fed As "Weak-Data"-Dependent; Lacy Hunt Warns "We're Not On The Right Path") (Putting The Fallacy Of QE Into Perspective) (Alan Greenspan: QE Failed To Help The Economy, The Unwind Will Be Painful, "Buy Gold") (Fireworks Fly As Peter Schiff Warns "An Economy That Lives By QE, Dies By QE")

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 10:23am

Paypal cuts off Swiss Gold

Paypal cuts off Swiss Gold Initiative donations through Matterhorn Asset Management

On Wednesday, October 29, we received an unexpected simple template notification from PayPal that they can no longer receive donations on behalf of Matterhorn Asset Management AG; that they do not take these decisions lightly and that their decision is final which includes any future regular business. Their formal reasons:

1] we are not a registered charity in Switzerland

2] our product is a risk

Under Swiss law we are totally in compliance with our effort to raise funds in support of the gold initiative. In fact under Swiss law we are not required to be a registered charity to raise funds for any kind of political challenge and PayPal is aware of this.

You know the situation is desperate when the powers-that-be stoop to such measures.


Nov 1, 2014 - 10:23am

Food for thought

If a lot of these take downs of Gold, which seems linked to money printing and devaluation of YEN had not happened. Then the price of Gold in YEN and its long term chart would look awesome.

It would be a text book case of the strength of Gold. I wonder how much Gold the Japanese are buying - or rather, discouraged from buying? Can someone please post 20 year chart yen/gold.

Just thinking out loud.

Also, the price of Gold in Yen just yesterday's chart, if the smack down had not happened first...Canary in coal mine.

And the Gold price in Argentine peso - I just looked at the 5 year.... maybe the 20 year is good too?

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 10:36am

Who Will Suffer From A

Who Will Suffer From A Leveraged Credit Shakeout?

Submitted by Charlie Hennemann via CFA Institute blog,

Of all the noteworthy moments from the 2014 CFA Institute Fixed-Income Management Conference, thebombshell may have been the default call from Martin S. Fridson, CFA.

Fridson, CIO at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, has been a leading figure in the high-yield bond market since it was known as the “junk bond” market — and he sees as much as $1.6 trillion in high-yield defaults coming in a surge he expects to begin soon.

“And this is not based on an apocalyptic forecast,” he assured the audience.

High-yield bonds, typically issued with credit ratings at the bottom of the scale, tend to suffer default surges during troughs in the credit cycle. The first high-yield default surge occurred from 1989 to 1992, and encompassed the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert. The second surge ran from 1999 to 2003, following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and the third happened in the midst of the global financial crisis, from 2008 to 2009.

Fridson suggests the next default surge will be larger than the last three combined. Each surge saw an average annual high-yield default rate above 7% (which, if extended over a multi-year period, can add up to real money).

Fridson currently projects that 1,155 issuers will default in the next wave. Over a four-year period that easily surpasses the 644 defaults in 1999–2003, the largest of the three prior default surges.

For context, Fridson points to the last default surge of 2008–2009: It lasted only two years, and the market swung from a record number of defaults in 2008 to a below-average number in 2009, something Fridson “would have said was impossible.” The reason, of course, was that interventionist policies did as intended in the wake of the financial crisis, cutting the credit cycle short and giving new life to many issuers that were staring default in the face. In the absence of a strong cyclical recovery, this may only have delayed the inevitable.

Fridson noted that since 2010, the high-yield market has seen deterioration in the credit-ratings mix even as it has grown at a compound annual growth rate exceeding 10%, fueled in part by European issuers accessing the high-yield markets in lieu of bank credit, which has been harder to get thanks to more conservative bank capital requirements.

One key assumption behind Fridson’s forecast is that the Fed ends its program of quantitative easing (QE) and allows interest rates to rise. QE may have ended, but Fed guidance calls for interest rates to remain low for a “considerable time.” Fridson was asked about QE and the persistence of low rates during Q&A after his presentation, and the answer left the audience murmuring.

“If we’re in this Fed rescue mode [in 2016–2019], then I think we’re in a lot of trouble. Very serious trouble.”

The final presentation at the Fixed-Income Management Conference was from Paul Travers, a manager of bank loans and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) at Onex Credit Partners. Travers was quick to offer his thoughts about Fridson’s forecast, which would have a profound impact on the bank loan market if it comes to pass.

“I hope he’s wrong,” Travers exclaimed, noting that high-yield issuers are often also issuers of syndicated loans. “I don’t know if I can live through another four-year default wave.”

In a typical default situation, the holders of senior-secured bank debt would be expected to have much better recoveries than holders of the same issuer’s high-yield bonds, because bank loans have higher priority in the company’s capital structure. But investors in loans may not do as well in the next credit trough as they have in the past, as leverage multiples in the loan market have steadily climbed since 2011.

Unlike fixed-rate high-yield bonds, leveraged loans typically offer floating rates indexed off of Libor, usually resetting monthly, which provides some protection for investors against the prospect of a rising interest rate environment. Travers considers the current credit environment “relatively benign,” and said the current low-rate, low-growth environment is the “sweet spot” for the leveraged loan market — positive growth that isn’t rapid enough to threaten a rate increase. Under these conditions, the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index par amount outstanding increased to $768 billion in July of this year, adding $76 billion in the first half of 2014.

During his presentation, Travers noted that “Covenant Lite” loans now exceed 50% of the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. According to Travers, fewer loan covenants wouldn’t necessarily lead to a higher incidence of defaults, since loan holders in most instances would be inclined to waive covenants rather than force an issuer into default. But over time, the lack of tight covenants could allow cash to flow out of the company, resulting in lower loan recoveries for investors in the event of default.

Of more immediate concern to Travers was the impact of retail fund flows on the leveraged loan market, which had seen 14 consecutive weeks of negative flows at the time of the conference after a long period of inflows. A fairly recent phenomenon in the leveraged-credit market, these retail flows from large loan managers — forced to buy and sell large blocks of loans to put cash to work or meet fund redemptions — contribute to volatility.

In addition to the underlying loan market’s volatility, Travers suggested the CLO market was experiencing volatility itself as a result of just-announced risk retention provisions under section 941 of Dodd–Frank, which would require managers of CLOs to own at least 5% of the risk in their portfolios. Anticipation of this rule was a contributing factor in the rush of CLO issuance in 2014, which equaled 187 deals at the time of the conference.

While the risk-retention requirement isn’t expected to kick in immediately, Travers suggested that going forward, investors should determine whether CLO managers have the capital to comply with this new requirement as part of their due diligence process.

Fridson and Travers approached the leveraged credit market from different perspectives, but their talks suggested that the placid environment encouraged by low interest rates and accommodative credit won’t persist. The next credit cycle will pose some serious challenges for leveraged-credit investors, regardless of their place in the capital structure.

Under the circumstances, the retail component of leveraged credit investments — absent from prior default surges — is probably not a positive development.

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 10:38am

Most people are blind to the

Most people are blind to the events that will soon come about. A great deal of the shadow banking world falls into and overlaps into the grey world of derivatives. There is no single commonly adopted definition of derivative or derivative contract in the European Union. This plays havoc with what and when reporting rules apply. It also highlights divisions in how national regulators view reporting rules for the $693 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.

Remember this is only part of a much larger market that includes hundreds of trillions of dollars in non-reported agreements and private contracts. Everyone paying attention knows that the size of the derivatives market is 20 times larger than the global economy, the article below explores some of its ins and outs.

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 10:39am

Canada suspends visas for

Canada suspends visas for residents of west African Ebola outbreak countries.

"Canada – which has not reported any cases of Ebola so far – is following in the footsteps of Australia, which on Tuesday became the first developed country to issue such a ban."

Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 10:42am
Safety Dan
Nov 1, 2014 - 10:47am

Clinical Illness and Outcomes in Patients with Ebola in Sierra L

The New England Journal of Medicine

Clinical Illness and Outcomes in Patients with Ebola in Sierra Leone


Of 106 patients in whom EVD was diagnosed, 87 had a known outcome, and 44 had detailed clinical information available. The incubation period was estimated to be 6 to 12 days, and the case fatality rate was 74%. Common findings at presentation included fever (in 89% of the patients), headache (in 80%), weakness (in 66%), dizziness (in 60%), diarrhea (in 51%), abdominal pain (in 40%), and vomiting (in 34%). Clinical and laboratory factors at presentation that were associated with a fatal outcome included fever, weakness, dizziness, diarrhea, and elevated levels of blood urea nitrogen, aspartate aminotransferase, and creatinine. Exploratory analyses indicated that patients under the age of 21 years had a lower case fatality rate than those over the age of 45 years (57% vs. 94%, P=0.03), and patients presenting with fewer than 100,000 EBOV copies per milliliter had a lower case fatality rate than those with 10 million EBOV copies per milliliter or more (33% vs. 94%, P=0.003). Bleeding occurred in only 1 patient.


The incubation period and case fatality rate among patients with EVD in Sierra Leone are similar to those observed elsewhere in the 2014 outbreak and in previous outbreaks. Although bleeding was an infrequent finding, diarrhea and other gastrointestinal manifestations were common. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.)

A must read on Ebola.

Nov 1, 2014 - 11:05am

Benny Hill

Ah, he is a classic, Mrs Silver66 is driven crazy by him. I think he is a hoot, must be from my days as a young man wink. Juvenile at the best of times

Funny story thought, whenever we pick up her dad and take him out, she slips out of the front seat and moves to the back seat(her thing) and when her dad gets in the passenger side she gives him "Benny Hill taps on the head". Been going on for 30 plus ears. He loves Benny

Benny Hill - Head slapping


Nov 1, 2014 - 11:17am


"Why take the risk of loaning out to citizens when they burned you earlier?" I agree 100%, so how are these huge amount of "excess reserves" ever going to enter the economy? It's not, banks didn't starting extending credit for over 20 years after the great depression.

"I know right now, and that is that banks on several continents are in trouble" No disagreement here, but to say that they are going to fail and cause a global meltdown is silly, governments will bail them out and the markets know this fact.

"Have at it, try to discredit me." That's not the goal, the point is to have a discussion on our disagreements on the markets, nothing more.

Nov 1, 2014 - 11:32am
Nov 1, 2014 - 4:28pm

NWO from non-western perspective

If you were planning to substitute the current financial world order, won't you undertake a head fake? So, isn't the pursuit of SDR inclusion by China, a plausible strategy that takes the Western attention from other strategies that truly replaces the current order? The inclusion into the SDR basket is meaningless without the voting reforms.

Likewise, China will not want to be the second biggest gold holder or even parity with USA (if latter does truly hold the mythical 8000 tons that has never been audited). They want to have the biggest gold holdings which is in line with their 5000 years of Middle Earth perspective.

Assuming that China wishes to 'continue' to undertake a slow transformation from the current world order due to their ernomous UST/USD holdings can be perilous. If you were in their shoes, clearly, the US Govt is insolvent. And as long as you continue receiving trade surpluses in rapidly debasing USD, it means you are robbing your own citizens of a higher quality of life. But more importantly, you allow the current world order to continue their games. Once physical PMs are gone, there's no reason to continue the staged theatre.

To China, there are two objectives - transforming as much (not necessarily all) of their UST/USD holdings and changing the current world order. It's not necessary that the former is of higher priority than the latter. China can bootstrap itself with all it's infrastructure to the next GDP level. We can't say the same for most Western economies.

Nov 1, 2014 - 4:59pm

Getting Close to 2.6 Million Views

Nice interviews with Ron Paul, James Rickards and Steve Forbes at the end of the video.

The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind - Hidden Secrets of Money Episode 4
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Key Economic Events Week of 2/18

2/20 2:00 ET January FOMC Minutes
2/21 8:30 ET Dec Durable Goods and Capital Equipment
2/21 8:30 ET Feb Philly Fed
2/21 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svcs PMIs
2/21 10:00 ET Jan Existing Home Sales
2/22 Day long Fed Goon appearance at Chicago Booth Policy Forum

Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
2/14 8:30 ET PPI
2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories