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Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - 5:00pm

The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable. However, TFMR Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only.

Gosh, that sounds familiar. Where have I seen that disclaimer before? I know I've seen it somewhere...hmmm.

I've got it!! It's from the bottom of each day's "Gold Stocks" report issued by the CME. It didn't used to be there. In fact, the disclaimer was only added in 2013. Please see this excellent analysis from our pal DenverDave before proceeding:

https://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-cmes-comex-goldsilver-inven...

So now that we've established that the numbers I'm about to present may be about as real as The Tooth Fairy, let's get right to it. Shall we?

Last week, there was all sorts of mumbling and grumbling about the 10 metric tonnes of eligible gold that had suddenly departed the JPM Comex gold vault. And not only was it a whopping 10 metric tonnes, it was a perfect and precise to three decimal points 10 metric tonnes. This once again means we're dealing with:

  • kilobars so perfectly shiny and new that they don't require any kind of weighing or assaying on the way in or out of the vault
  • bullshit paper shenanigans

I first wrote about this phenomenon about a year ago and, in doing so, kicked up a small hornet's nest of controversy. Please read here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5182/more-deception-comex

In response, I followed up with another post a few weeks later: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5322/another-thought-experiment

As you can see, I'm not new to this "perfect and precise" gold movement story. So, when I saw last week's perfect and precise, 10 metric ton withdrawal, it started me thinking. Not only was this par for the JPM course, last week's withdrawal also brought the total perfect and precise withdrawals over just the last month to 21 metric tonnes. WoW! That's a lot!

Below are the Gold Stocks reports that I've saved over the past year. I try to check them every day but I'm certain that there are days that I have missed. Therefore, there are likely other days where perfect and precise, deposits and withdrawals have been made but I've missed/overlooked them. Here are just 10 daily reports, showing a perfect and precise, no need to weigh or assay, 33 metric tonnes of eligible gold deposits:

Below are three reports from earlier this year showing a total of 25, perfect and precise metric tonnes heading back out:

And, over just the past month, here are four reports showing a perfect and precise total of 21 more metric tonnes heading off to points unknown:

Note that these last four withdrawals have reduced the amount of gold in JPM's eligible vault by nearly 1,000,000 ounces! This leaves JPM with just 176,436 ounces of registered gold and 485,757 of eligible. Even if every remaining ounce of eligible was converted to registered, this is only enough gold to settle 6,600 Comex contracts. A paltry amount given the total open interest and likely 10,000+ standing for delivery in December.

So, what in the name of Jon Corzine is going on here? Frankly, I have no idea and it's impossible to come to any specific conclusions but there certainly are some questions that need to be pondered:

  1. Again, is this all just bullshit and is that the reason why the CME suddenly felt compelled to issue the daily disclaimers? Are there really armored trucks driving around Manhattan, carrying two, five or ten metric tonnes of gold kilobars and heading off to points unknown?
  2. If all of these vault movements actually represent real, physical gold, then who or what went to the trouble of parking over 40 metric tonnes of brand new kilobars in JPM's Comex vault, only to remove them later?
  3. Why is JPM's Comex gold vault down to just 662,000 ounces? This leaves it as just the 3rd-largest. It's now dwarfed by Scotia and only 15% the size of HSBC.
  4. And why has JPM suddenly become a complete non-player in the monthly delivery process? Just last year, the JPM House and Customer accounts regularly accounted for more than half of the bi-monthly stops and issues on The Comex. This culminated in December when the JPM House (proprietary) account stopped a total of 6,254 contract or 96% of all deliveries that month. So far in 2014, JPM House has greatly diminished their participation and, over the past three delivery month, they've been almost entirely absent from the process. https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

These are all very important questions and, again, I don't have the answers. The CME has structured the Comex so that it's impossible to know for certain, regardless of what The Apologists are always claiming in their personal blogs. All we can do is project and guess, based upon accumulated wisdom and experience. We then have to wonder if our conclusions are even relevant. Do they even matter?

To that end, the only questions that stick in my mind are related to numbers 3 and 4 above.

Since it is easily verifiable that JPM has only issued/delivered 6,000 ounces of gold over the past five months, the primary question becomes just whom or what owns the gold that has been temporarily parked in the JPM Comex vault. Just by chance, we were able to catch 33 metric tonnes of perfect and precise deposits, followed by nearly 46 metric tonnes of equally perfect and precise withdrawals. Why was this gold parked for a while in JPMs vault? Where did it come from? Where is it now headed? Is this JPM proprietary gold and do these withdrawals, when combined with the greatly reduced delivery activity, indicate the JPM is on the verge of exiting Comex gold trading?

Again, I apologize for simply raising questions without being able to provide the answers. Perhaps the purpose of this post is simply this: If you think that The Comex is a shady, dirty and nasty den of thieves, then this deliberately opaque movement of gold into and out JPM's vaults will likely serve to reinforce that opinion.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
76%
NO
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Total votes: 193

  152 Comments

buzlightening · Oct 31, 2014 - 10:25am

Thanks for the gun cloud laugh Safety Dan

Why I always hit turdville. What if laughing becomes one of the first symptoms of the next pandemic unleashed upon us if BOla ebola doesn't lock us down in marshal law? I keep saying the goon squad will never take away my sense of humor but I'm beginning to wonder? NOT!

Putin DeSafe · Oct 31, 2014 - 10:34am

What are you mad ?

who would buy an ass set that is obviously determined to reach zero. Guilty your honor. Sorry those four nines were calling the animals ox antelope falcon eagle the Somali the Taku lunar kooka Hell what have i done.wink

Putin DeSafe · Oct 31, 2014 - 10:38am

buzz

From memory

Chaos is always found in greatest abundance wherever order is being sought. It always defeats order because it is better organized.

silver2013 · Oct 31, 2014 - 10:42am

So we know manipulating

So we know manipulating metals and stocks works for the game players. Whats the metal population going to do or hopping for? A war with russia? Where millions will die just so your metal price goes up? A huge stock market correction where millions of retired people will see thier lifesaving disappear? Or just see the usa dollar loose its world reserve currency statuse? Any of this scenario will destroy our way of living, our military will be in jeopardy and we cannot allow or show weakness. Or other power hungry dictators will make you do thing you never want to even think of. Obamacare , Republican or Democrats is all the worries this country can handle. So keep blogging and watching tv.....everything is just ok. LET THE BIG BOYS TAKE CARE OF THE REAL PROBLEMS. P.S GOOD JOB MIKE97 ON BEING FIRST to comment. Keep up the good job.

buzlightening · Oct 31, 2014 - 10:45am

The last bash before the crash.

Nikkei Futures Halted Limit Up (+1100) As USDJPY Tops 112 https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-31/nikkei-futures-halted-limit-11... ........................................................................Lets face it, the paper pulp fiction equity mkts are rigged for the infamous blow off top before the crash; shot in the head as in dead head fed fudded out. Last fluff'n bluff in the bazzaroworld of paper pulp fiction. Right at US election time. Watch that blow off Monday in the dow propaganda menageries' Leaking into Tues and down thereafter! Enter the paper pulp fiction casino at your own peril. Now you see it and with all black magic paper pulp fiction illusion, you wake up to the day where now you see your paper assets obliterated; suddenly overnight! 

buzlightening · Oct 31, 2014 - 11:00am

Always make it a point not to waste time butting heads

with others individually or collectively on the blogosphere. It never fails in pointing out the biggest butt heads. 

Putin DeSafe · Oct 31, 2014 - 11:00am

as posted in previous thread

Somewhere in a galaxy not too far, a bottom will appear, a real bottom a bottom to depend on, a bottom to mark a bottom, a bottom to be proud of. Cmon Turd lets call it, Im tired of stackin.

dgstage · Oct 31, 2014 - 11:00am
SubjectivObject · Oct 31, 2014 - 11:02am

TMosley

TMosley proposed/predicted

that PM prices would go to zero a long time back.

It would be interesting to get his perspective of the current state of price and price action.

zman · Oct 31, 2014 - 11:13am

PM prices are not going to

PM prices are not going to zero, they are just trading lower.

Remember when PM's were in a bear market for over 25 years? It's called low prices for a long time.

There will be no shortages or no defaults, it is what it is.

Colonel Angus · Oct 31, 2014 - 12:02pm

So the price of metals is down...

...there is still good, organic food in the freezer, we're nearly ready for winter with the gardens, and my firewood stack is 2/3 to 3/4 of what I need. The chain saw still works (I hope), there's gas in the truck and minivan, the kids are happy, the wife is happy. What more is there? 

I still have a job that pays the bills almost all the time (awful medical expenses excluded). Further, I woke up on the right side of the dirt this morning, a few feet above it rather than six feet below it. 

So, they dropped the price of metals. What is motel backwards? And what is mekcuf backwards? My stack still has the same number of ounces, still provides the same insurance for me. And although my fiat dollars may be a little stronger against the JPY today, I doubt we'll be able to buy more groceries with the same number of USD. We all know where this is headed. Eventually the USD is too strong for exports (do we still export much of anything?), so that Kocherlakota (or Kosherdakota in Turd's terms or something not very printable in other people's) will be right in his dovishness. Trial balloon anyone???

I keep hearing November or December for a blow-up in things here. They have it set up with Ebola and elections. The weather may also explain why they had to do it, though Putin doesn't seem to want war and Netanyahu is too much of a "chicken shit" to bomb all his neighbors, according to Obama cabinet members. I guess we'll just have to start the war.

OK, sorry. Rant off. I was trying to point out that it is a good day. And today is. Tomorrow...we'll see... 

MountainMan · Oct 31, 2014 - 12:06pm
Alonzo Jazzberry · Oct 31, 2014 - 12:14pm

Ah, the prescient mountain man

Back with another insightful prediction! Would you believe that he has been 100% accurate in predicting big drops in price that happened hours ago? Truly, he has a remarkable gift.

zman · Oct 31, 2014 - 12:30pm

@colonel

"So, they dropped the price of metals." No, the market dropped the price of metals.

"My stack still has the same number of ounces" True, but with less purchasing power in the real world.

"Still provides the same insurance for me" Maybe, but did you ever think you are paying too much for this insurance? Hyperinflation in the US, not gonna happen.

"I doubt we'll be able to buy more groceries with the same number of USD" But how much food can you buy with an asset that has declined -70% in 3 years? Not much. My bet is that your USD will buy more food in the next year, the dollar will continue to trade much higher and will be able to buy more commodities.

Colonel Angus zman · Oct 31, 2014 - 1:17pm

@zman

Out trolling again, are you? 

Look, anything this unstable will eventually collapse. My research is in bank regulation, and I can tell you their balance sheets are all screwed up. The kind of leverage they are holding eventually implies a major problem. And we all know the Fed cannot handle that happening. If it were to happen, the deflationary forces of debt destruction would be so massive that it would literally tear apart this country and many others.

So eventually the Fed prints again. And eventually the velocity of money comes around, probably sooner rather than later. I've certainly been early. Hell, I was buying silver at $12 an ounce and gold at under $1000. How much have I lost in purchasing power? Riddle me that, trollboy.

I also dumped a vast amount of silver off at $44 an ounce. I didn't quite get the $49 top, but I was okay with that. I did buy back at about $17-18 an ounce, so I lost 10% there at present and maybe more before the rebound. Again I was early...and overly cautious. So let's see how I'm doing...let's say I made $30 an ounce on the first purchases then lost, oh, let's say it is eventually $5 an ounce on the more recent stuff. Looks like an old dumbass who is just talking about buying food did okay for himself. (I also, literally, bought the farm with proceeds. And with a wife who has degrees in horticulture and agribusiness, we've been able to provide for a family while teaching the kids the value and rewards of hard work.)

Go troll someone else. I didn't lose the 70% you'd like to think I did. To paraphrase Sammy Sosa, "PMs been berry berry good to me."

And if you want to bet on the cost of a basket of grocery items in the next year, I'll take your bet. If you want to bet on the DXY, name the amount you feel comfortable betting. And if you want to sell an idiot like me some futures on gold or silver for a year from now, please...take my fiat from me. Do you have the guts? 

abguy4 · Oct 31, 2014 - 1:20pm

@dgstage, as usual, you are too under-stated

Really GREAT article @ the Watchman on PM's; excerpt to wet yur appetite->

https://thewealthwatchman.com/a-warning-from-the-watchman/

Folks like smarmy Mr. Weaselly ‘Richer-than-you’ :

Jamie Dimon

And good ole’ “God’s Work” McJerkface:

Lloyd Blankstare

Want you, and all others like you, who candidly refuse to trust anything that comes out of their mouths…they want you financially disintegrated. They’ll be seeking to ride high to record profits during this next, great market bloodbath, and they’ll seek to do it upon the crushed backs of every honest investor who ran for the hills.

Alonzo Jazzberry · Oct 31, 2014 - 1:26pm

@angus - I don't think anyone can argue...

...with a pm bug who sold at $44/oz and resisted the urge to buy back for years until $17!

But that just makes you a genius, and anyone that can time markets like that can invest in whatever the heck they want. Not sure it really has any bearing on what a mere mortal should do.

zman · Oct 31, 2014 - 1:42pm

@colonel

"their (banks) balance sheets are all screwed up" Really? Yet everyone knows the state of their balance sheets and their shares continue to trade higher, I guess Mr.Market doesn't agree with your assessment, maybe you're wrong. "So eventually the Fed prints again" So what? You expect something different to happen in the next round? The Fed buying a MBS from a banks balance sheet to their balance sheet does NOTHING, that money never enters the economy and inflation is never started. "And eventually the velocity of money comes around" Really? If the banks don't extend credit into the economy it doesn't happen, it been 7 years now and it could be decades before that changes. China will continue to be a buyer of US debt, the velocity of money isn't going to move anytime soon. "if you want to bet on the DXY, name the amount" What makes you so positive on the Euro, Yen, and Pound? The Euro at 1.26 is still overvalued today, I see the dollar index moving to 95 or 100 next year. I'm sorry, but the US dollar is the best of the worst and that makes a tough environment for hard assets. Congrats on making some profitable trades in the PM market, but that hardly changes the facts on the destruction of purchasing power in the metals.

Alonzo Jazzberry · Oct 31, 2014 - 2:13pm

zman

Not that I particularly disagree with your overall assessment, but it seems a little strange to assert both that Mr. Market knows best and the euro is overvalued.

I would be surprised if the Euro was significantly overvalued, just as I would be surprised if banks that are being priced as solid are secretly nearing insolvency.

Both are possible, neither is particularly likely, and anyone who thinks they know better is either brilliant or fooling themselves.

AC_Doctor · Oct 31, 2014 - 2:21pm

ZMAN babble/drivel

zman babble/drivel as usual. You paid frn's to post your babble/drivel? Re-fuckingmarkable you would waste money doing that and such of your time trolling the boards casting your negative commentary.

The FED is leveraged 81:1 mark to market. This is what they have paid for all the junk MBS that is probably worth 15-20% of the marked value. So their non-cash MBS assets are probably worth 2.0 trillion on paper, but in actuality, are worth 400 billion which puts their actual leverage around 500:1. The lunatics are running the asylum.

I think the Fed leverage would make a killer topic for Mr. Ferguson to research and write about.

ZMAN, so when you say garbage like quote My stack still has the same number of ounces --- "True, but with less purchasing power in the real world.", this about your greasy FRN's backed by the FED RESERVE leveraged at 500:1 with real CPA accounting, I could care a flying fuck less about my stack being worth $1 less in printed linen ass-wipe...

zman · Oct 31, 2014 - 2:31pm

@AC

"The Fed is leveraged 81:1 mark to market" Even if true, so what? The Fed can't go insolvent, stop frustrating yourself with this idea.

"all the junk MBS that is probably worth 15%-20% of the marked value" Even if true, so what? Buying MBS's and holding them is not a big deal, the Fed can print the money and even cancel the debt down the road. Guess what? All central banks are doing the same thing, on a relative basis the US is still the best of the worst.

@Alonzo

I just think the Euro is still overvalued, I could be wrong. Today the market says it's at 1.26, so be it. I just find it funny that when the Euro was at 1.40 everyone in the PM sector was saying the dollar was overvalued, not even close.

Alonzo Jazzberry · Oct 31, 2014 - 2:33pm

@AC_Doctor - Gold valued in dollars

I could care a flying fuck less about my stack being worth $1 less in printed linen ass-wipe...

This sentiment always confuses me. What *do* you care about your stack being worth less in? Milk? Land? Oil? Beanie Babies?

The price of gold isn't expressed dollars arbitrarily. It's done because it is by far the most common medium of exchange, and the most useful and general proxy for basically everything that exists under the sun. When your gold trades for fewer dollars, that means it also trades for fewer square meters, liters, kilograms, etc. of X.

Unless what you are saying is that you don't care if your stack is worthless full stop? That seems a strange position, but I can't make hide nor hair of it otherwise. Please enlighten me!

silver2013 · Oct 31, 2014 - 2:44pm

TURD CAN I ASK YOUR OPINION

Whats your opinion on the extreme high silver open interest and silver smack down? what could happen if OI does not drop by next month?

Colonel Angus · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:15pm

Alonzo and zman

Admittedly I was helped by teaching over in Europe and not wanting the stack to be inaccessible on this side of the pond. I didn't pick up other PMs over there because I'd have to bring them back across too. So it was as much luck as anything else. I did get things right on ammunition and bought literal tons of 22LR before it got so expensive. I tripled up on that...

The market is often wrong. For instance the market is presently wrong on silver and gold. We like to think of this as an arbitrage. The market was wrong on GM for the longest time. I know because I had an uncle hold many thousands of shares at $40 a share when I was yelling "sell, sell, sell." And then he had nothing. The efficient market hypothesis is not even close to right, and my research students have several new examples just over the past couple of years. Unfortunately for most of us the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.

Zman, I'm long FAZ and short several banks. I know what is coming, and I'm not afraid to take small losses for a long time for the ultimate payday. It's all play money for me. If I needed it to make sure the kids could eat, I wouldn't have it in the market. First, how many investors can read and understand a 10-K or a 10-Q? Second, the balance sheets hide as much as they can. (Guess who has written multiple research papers on information that can be gleaned from the data they are forced to release and how much more can be told if the BIS just required a little bit more.) Why is there such a glut of NPLs? It's hiding the fact that the underlying assets are worth far less than the loan. By being contrarian, you just might be able to make a buck here and there...

As for the velocity, all you would have to do is stop the IoER that the Fed is paying, and then the market would be flooded. It's almost as if they are waiting for the beat of drums of deflation, and then BOOM...out comes this flood of money and they have saved the world again. "You want Old Yellen on the wall. You need her on the wall!" (Despite the fact that she is no Nicholson.)

As for the Fed balance sheet, there may be a book in the next year or so. I can't give all the details, but I've been asked to explain the mathematics behind some of the decisions that have been made, and that is often a monumental task. I'm not so sure there was so much of a mathematical model as it was, "Oh shit...do something, do anything!" You'll recognize the author if the book comes about. 

I'd be glad to write a little about the Fed's balance sheet or about why the BCBS rules for banks are an absolute sham, if there would be interest. 

silver2013 · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:23pm

Well, there is NO DOUBT that

Well, there is NO DOUBT that a record amount of Spec shorts exist. These must be covered before the end of November as the hedgy algo HFTY specs have no silver to deliver. Whether or not they will be squeezed or allowed to just casually cover remains to be seen.

Lamenting Laverne · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:24pm

Potential for sovereign debt default in 5 days or so

I have been buzzing around to see if I could find any follow up updates to this story from the 1st October:

https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/ukraine-crisis-bonds-naftogaz-idUSL6N0RW1K320141001

On the 1st of October Ukrainian Naftagaz failed to pay USD 1.6B to Gazprom. This is very important because the payment is guaranteed by the Ukraine government, which means that if the Ukraine Government fails to back the guarantee and pay the bill, ALL Ukrainian Government Bonds will come due for payment. 

Approximate schedule as I understand it:

1st Oct: Initial payment default by Naftagaz

10th Oct: 10 day grace period for Naftagaz to come up with payment ends

4th Nov: After initial 10 day grace period fails the Government Guarantee kicks in an there is then approx. 25 days for the Ukraine Government to pay the bill, before the cross default clause makes all Ukrainian sovereign debt due for payment.

It turns out that DeaconBenjamin posted an update today - here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/392390#comment-392390https://en.itar-tass.com/world/757714

Snippet - Article dated 31. October 2014:

"Ukraine gas debt

Ukraine’s debt to Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom stands at $5.3 billion. Out of the sum, $1.4 billion is to be repaid by the end of October, and a total of $3.1 billion will be repaid by the end of the year, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month.

Gazprom on June 16 switched Naftogaz to prepayment for gas supplies because Kiev failed to pay part of its gas debt by the deadline of 10:00 Moscow Time on June 16.

Russian gas supplies to Ukraine for its own needs were halted, but transit volumes were reportedly passing via Ukraine to Europe in line with the schedule."

>>

So they also failed to pay in June - and they also failed to pay in 2008 as per the first link. I don't know if the cross default clauses existed in June and were papered over in some way, or if the current situation is truly new, due to never before existing cross default clauses.

It does seem quite significant - because since this second article was posted today, it would appear that Ukraine has repaid only between 0 and 200M on the debt by now with just 4-5 days to go before the original deadline.

Since they have another 3.1B due by the end of the year, a partial payment now will only confirm that the 3.1B are also in deep trouble.

Finally, SilverSooner has also explained recently that Ukrainian rearmament has been going on and that the war is soon to go hot again, Maybe that going hot again is timed to noise-out a bond default in the press or at least to provide some excuse.

In any case, it is interesting that Ukraine apparently can afford military equipment for rearmament, but so far cannot afford to pay its gas bills - even if it means triggering of cross default clauses on all the sovereign debt. So one has to wonder, if the default - should it happen - is done on purpose.

Alonzo Jazzberry · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:27pm

@Angus

Regardless of whether I agree with you, that was a nicely written response.

I think it does all come down to the degree to which one can trust the markets, and the degree to which you trust in efficient markets. I think almost everyone agrees that there is some extent to which markets are inefficient, but a diversity of opinion on that extent.

My perspective is basically that the efficiency of markets is sufficient enough that it vastly outstrips my personal insight, and the insight of literally any financial analyst (in the PM sphere or otherwise) I know of. So can markets be wrong? Hell yeah. Can I identify when those instances are? Historically, hell no. That's why I've never biased my investment allocations heavily on my personal intuitions and or the advice of an analyst or commentator.

Bollocks · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:32pm

Colonel Angus

"I'd be glad to write a little about the Fed's balance sheet or about why the BCBS rules for banks are an absolute sham, if there would be interest. "

If there would be interest? GO FOR IT yes.

silver2013 · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:37pm
C F · Oct 31, 2014 - 3:41pm

Not sure if anyone else has

Not sure if anyone else has commented on this, but I just noticed that most of the 90% junk silver at Provident Metals is now on "delay" status. Never seen that before over there. People must really be buying the hell out of it.

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