What Now?

254
187
Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 4:28pm

What an interesting seven weeks it's been. From the jubilation of late April to the frustration of early May to the despair of today, we've certainly ridden the trader rollercoaster.

I've tried to lead the way through the darkness but this sorcerer/soothsayer stuff is pretty challenging, particularly when you're dealing with a criminal enterprise on the other side of your trades. Regardless, let's recap so that we can begin to decide where to go from here.

First, back on May 18th I gave you what some began to call a "roadmap". Here's a link:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

I'll be the first to admit that the silver prediction for June came up short. I was looking for a rebound to $42-43 based upon the same fundos that had driven silver since August. The fundos are undoubtedly still there but the buyers aren't. All of the C/C/C shenanigans have scared them away for now. Silver made it to 38.84 on 5/26 and 38.76 on 5/31 but that was it. The gold prediction turned out pretty well, however. I was looking for a June peak between 1560 and 1580 and we made it to 1559.30 yesterday. Here, then, are the salient points going forward:

"5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real."

Then, there's this, which I wrote on June 8:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/hoping-to-be-wrong.html

In this post, we discussed how a rallying POSX might be the final nail-in-the-coffin for the gold rally from January. I hoped that it wouldn't be but I feared that it was. (Against my own advice, I bought those August gold calls Tuesday. Turd dumdum. "Walk in middle of road. Get squished like grape.") From this post, here is the most important point:

"The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780."

So, how does this relate to today? To me, today's action was the final, crushing blow to the 5-month rally in gold and the hoped-for recovery in silver. I now have no doubt that Santa, Turk et al will be proven wrong over the summer. There will be no "explosive" summer rally that will "confound the experts" and "make contrarians money". The PMs will simply be in another 8-week consolidation phase as they prepare for the next 18-week rally, which should begin by late August/early September. Until then, my advice to you is to not play. If anything, take advantage of dips toward the lower end of the described ranges by adding and stacking your physical. You'll have several opportunities over the next 8 weeks or so to buy some physical on "sale". If greed convinces you to trade paper on the Comex, you will only find yourself in the end with less fiat than you started with and you're going to want as much fiat as possible in your warchest when the next major UP move begins.

I leave you for now with these words of wisdom that Santa emailed out earlier today. Relax. Be happy. Enjoy the summer. Be ready for fall. TF

Dear Friends,

Economic statistics are taking a hard fall.

Without QE who will buy US treasury issues?
Without QE where is the basis of world equity markets?
Without QE what do you think the chart of unemployment will look like?
Without QE how do you think the camouflage of the insolvent balance sheets of the financial industry will fare?
Without QE where is mortgage money coming from?
Without QE what do you think home prices will do?
Without QE how will the present Administration and the legislative be re-elected?
Without QE how will the States of the United States of America finance themselves?

Be prepared for a reversal of the decision to curtail QE at the end of June.
Be prepared for a snap back at a greater percentage of QE with a different name.
Be prepared for covert QE between July 1st and late August when stimulation goes wild.
Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play.
Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time.

Stand firm on your gold positions.
Stand firm on your discipline of NO margin.
Stand strong in your Swiss Franc and Canadian dollar positions.

Survive the MOPE and market manipulation that is so obvious today.

Respectfully, Santa

paper_6-23pmgold.jpgpaper_6-23pmsilv.jpg

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 191

  254 Comments

Shill · Jun 24, 2011 - 10:27pm

Miners

Loaded up on NGD today, yes its a little early but I wanted in so I'll ride it out.

Lets all give thanks to our fine Host, click an ad, click the donate button, I know times are tough and beggar thy neighbor is tacky, but Turd gave us this home lets all support it.

Cheers and have a nice weekend.

Confucius says: By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

Peace.

ashtoncole Jdawg · Jun 24, 2011 - 10:41pm

Silver Dimes

I just caught on to silver dimes. Planning on buying more tomorrow! 

Gramp ashtoncole · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:01pm

Dimes...where did you pick them up?

where did you pick them up from?

I finally made it to the local coin shop's new location. had great talk w/ the owner who shares many of views discussed here. Picked out a few Peace Dollars, :) What nice coins!

Nice to do local business!

Love the New site here .... but kinda miss how every one's comments were jammed together on the old site, had a good 'flow'. Tons of info here , but more spread out.

OC15 · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:16pm

Lindsey Williams said on Alex

Lindsey Williams said on Alex Jones that gold and silver will pretty much stay put until September and then up 20-25% through the end of the year.

TheGoodDoctor · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:27pm

Who shot Turd? Seriously

Who shot Turd? cheeky

Seriously though, as the saying goes: When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy. By the sentiment of this board, I say it is time to be greedy. smiley

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:44pm

Gramp

Am I the only one around here who prefers the Morgans over the Peace Dollars? Seems like all I'm seeing on this blog lately is about Peace Dollars. Nothing wrong with them, mind you, but I guess I'm just always on an "older is better" kick. Morgans for me!

Eric Original · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:45pm

Good Doctor

I'm with you. I bought some miners today.

ginger · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:52pm

I leave the boards for just

I leave the boards for just one day and I come back to a marriage proposal!!cheeky

LOL, monedas. You are funny. ......Wait here just a minute. .....I'll go ask my husband. cheekycheeky

Be careful who you propose to on these online boards...... someone *may* take you up on it.heart .........And then you may have to end up sharing your metals and miners.broken heart crying

lol ....You make me laugh for sure!! ;) (Still love your posts:)

Ok!.. So much to catch up on. ....NO new daily post???? ...Is TF OK? .....I hope he's just getting some rest and that everything's ok. ......Thanks for the David Stockman video, StrongSideJedi. ...I could say A WHOLE LOT about GE ..but never could say it as well as Mr. Stockman did. Ah.. that was excellent.

Gramp · Jun 24, 2011 - 11:58pm

@ Eric Original

hey! My FIRST silver coins where 2 MORGANS! given to me by my friend's father for working for him. I was about 10 years old... still have 'em! :)

The Peace Dollars where right in front of me and something different to have. Mother said "oh I had so many of those as a child"...

The shop has a few 1/10 oz Eagles that may find a new owner soon... cool

Gramp · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:13am

yo-yo

The constant yo-yo of PM prices seems to have caused more confusion among Traders and Stackers as what comes next. Even here, where intent / goals are well defined, sharp, short price swings tug on the heart strings...

TPTB use confusion to their advantage...

Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:27am

Turd went MIA

Didn't he say he was going to post something after the close today? Must have slipped on some yogurt or something. I guess we'll just chat amongst ourselves...

ginger · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:41am

Eric

Go ahead, talk amongst y'selves.

Grand National,Talk Amongst Yourselves, Music Video

(really cool effects ..video)

Goodnight. :]

LeeHo · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:52am

SAE's are great but I got some of these for gifts

If the SHTF, these are divisible. Great for gifts.

The on the bottom is "For When You Have To Get Out of Dodge"

https://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_stagecoach.php

shaunster · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:55am

Turd out

Remember the Wendy's commercial "Where's the Beef"?

Where's the turd? Agreed hope he is just soaking up something in a bottle and relaxing.

shaunster LeeHo · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:59am

re: SAE's are great but I got some of these for gifts

These things remind me of a Hershey bar. Makes me want to go make some s'mores now.

LeeHo · Jun 25, 2011 - 1:24am

Good Pull

Shaunster, nice pull! I have not been here that long, but if the Turd does not rise in 3 days there could be a problem. Just hit the lever on the left side.

Chris · Jun 25, 2011 - 8:30am

Calling all turds, calling all turds....

The Turd is MIA...Anyone put an APB out yet?

Boardwalk · Jun 25, 2011 - 8:32am

iConstipation

Is this iConstipation? We's waiting for a new Turd. All together now, everybody GGGrrunt!

Boardwalk · Jun 25, 2011 - 8:49am

Rare Earth Elements

James Dines on rare earth elements. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-j-puplava/2011/06/24/james-dines-predicts-rare-earth-buying-panic

My holding on the rare earth play is Commerce Resources, CCE.V. As always, DYODD.

GLTA

pgd73 TheGoodDoctor · Jun 25, 2011 - 8:54am

It's time to be greedy

It may give some more pain time wise as well as price wise but time has arrived when PM buyers (physical only) should feel greedy. Price movement never change original fundamentals or reason behind any investing theme.

averagejoe · Jun 25, 2011 - 10:42am

Silver

Silver is a hedge for inflation. The deflation fears are taking over IMO.

Only a physical shortage will drive up price right now. Next few weeks will be interesting. I'm currently long physical, CDN$ and short paper silver XAG. Thinking of going flat till Wednesday but don't want to miss profiting from the downswing and buying more physical. Going into first notice day is important to me. I'm hoping to see some strength but not sold on it.

The Fed is between a rock and hard place. They can't have critical support levels cracked in the DOW before QE2 is even done, can they? Deflation fears would run rapid and cause the inevitable crash we all know is coming. So they have to inflate. This being their last week wouldn't they like to prop it up a little bit more. Losing the grip on PM's a little this week by helping the equities.

Wednesday I'm short everything. Who is going to replace the fed? This has to be the most predictable crashes ever. Everyone knows the market is BS. My pension will be gone and I'm just so bitter. EE doesn't give a shit all about profits.

Rant off

Monedas ginger · Jun 25, 2011 - 11:06am

Leave "him" out of it !

Could you imagine our pre-nupcial agreement ? Safe deposit receipts, treasure maps and Polaroid stack fotos ! Well, I'm glad you showed your face ! I'd rather have a "No, not now !" than see you go underground ! Even my Post Mistress, Cindy, is married .... just as well, she knows too much and will have to be eliminnated ! My librarian, Candy, is married to a Border Patrol unionleader.....think of the govmint suck retirement checks they'll be pullin' down ? If he is whacked by an illegal.......Monedas will make his move ! Meanwhile I'll read the short stories of Capote and O. Henry that she ordered for me ! Even though I'm not a trader....I hate it when the markets are closed ! In IC do they turn off your heart monitor for the weekend ? Even Seven Eleven is 24/7 ......but the pulse of humanity metal markets ?.......oh no ! They have the business hours of the DMV ! Monedas 2011 The Turd's da wurd !

Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:08pm

My portfolio

I'm still basically sitting at 1/6 oils, 1/6 miners, 1/6 Dow/Gold Ratio trades, 3/6 cash. That doesn't count the physical, which is probably about equal to that cash portion. I'm excited about miners right now, but still lots of dry powder for later in the year.

I still say if you are thinking about miners, you can buy them right now and be a happy little clam in 6 months time. Too many people are leveraged though, and that makes you worry about the next day or the next week too much. No staying power in anything.

Monedas Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:47pm

Competing Dowry ?

Eric, are you tossin' your hat in the ring for the hand of fair Ginger ? Let the bidding war begin ! I'm determined to be the man between her sighs !wink

ginger · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:48pm

Eric,I too see HUGE upside

Eric,

I too see HUGE upside potential in the coming months in these undervalued miners. I am trying to go long on more miner shares AND some select miner call options. I hope and pray that it plays out. ...I have some questions for you and others but need to formulate my thoughts/ideas/questions better and will post/ask in the next thread.

Monedas,

lol. smiley

Cindy has to be 'eliminated'!!surprise ...Remind me to have it stated in the pre-nup that if I 'go missing' the authorities need to investigate your treasure map to find my body. lol.wink

Ok. The deal's officially off. lol.

I don't like the markets closed on the weekends either. Gives the EE too much time and opportunity to do their evil deeds. That's the difference of our government vs. private companies. Real businesses (such as the Seven/Eleven) have to work for a living. The gov can just print their way to 'prosperity'. ...At our expense of course.

ginger · Jun 25, 2011 - 12:52pm

Ok Monedas, COLD BUCKET of

Ok Monedas,

COLD BUCKET of water getting splashed over your way! laugh

Don't force me to post a pic of myself just to derail this conversation. ;)

That'd shut you down cold.

YOU WILL FIND ........the gal of your dreams. She's not me. ........Hang in there. wink

Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 1:01pm

Ginger and I go way back

Monedas, you got some catching up to do buddy. :D

Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 1:02pm

Miners

Basically, for everybody who was kicking themselves in march and april wishing they had bought back in january, well now's your chance. We are right back where we started, so what's your excuse this time?

Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 1:05pm

Ginger

Don't forget to keep checking back to my gold miners thread for those "expensive miners" LOL.

That's what your "history" tab is for.

Also, the more I think about it, the more I like those NGD calls I told you about.

Eric Original · Jun 25, 2011 - 1:05pm

Gotta go, guys.  Daughter

Gotta go, guys. Daughter will swim in a few minutes.

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