The Battle Continues

416
Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 8:53am

I thought the Swiss were always supposed to be "neutral" in global battles for supremacy. Apparently not.

We are clearly in a very interesting battle for the price of gold. Through their actions, "Western" central banks (the bad guys) have made it quite clear that they would like to see the price of gold drop, hoping to see the value of gold be reduced at the same rate they are reducing the value of their fiat. "Eastern" central banks and prudent global investors (the good guys) are seizing upon each manufactured dip. Thankfully, so far, the good guys are winning. Whether this will cause our adversaries to give up and retreat to higher ground remains to be seen.

The battle will almost certainly be joined soon by the criminal C/C/C. The actions of the central banks have once again provided the volatility "cover" they need to raise margins. Of course, the C/C/C is not a true ally to the central banks in this battle because they are acting in their own self-interest. Like we saw yesterday, The Cartel will likely use any protracted weakness to continue covering long-held short positions.

Given all of that, I think we can be quite confident that recent trends will continue and, accordingly, that the trendlines on the charts below, especially the longer-term ones, will continue to act as solid support.

paper_9-9amgold1.jpgpaper_9-9amgold2.jpg

paper_9-9amgold8.jpgpaper_9-9amsilv8.jpg

So far, gold has rallied back nicely from its lows near 1825. I have a last of 1844. As the battle continues to rage, my suggestion to you is to stay on the sidelines. Hold your positions but only add on steep selloffs, down to the major support areas, where confidence is higher that floors can be found.

I'll be watching things all day and will update as needed. TF

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  416 Comments

· Sep 9, 2011 - 12:40pm

Perspective

Just a reminder, since 12:00 noon EST last Friday, the USDX has risen remarkably (Greek default, anyone?) from 74.68 to 77.12. Over that same time, however, Gold has held up remarkably well- despite all the gyrations this week, it was $1873 last Friday at noon, and today it is 1867 as I type... just 6 bucks down.

Put another way, while the USDX climbed a whopping 3.3% in one week, gold lost just 2 tenths of one percent.

Gold managing to tread water while the dollar is rocketing up is extremely bullish, IMHO. I can't wait to see what happens when the dollar starts going the other way... Good trading, all!

Edit- Ha! Markus, THIS is why I need a silverfoil hat, to keep you from reading my mind. Or is it to keep me from reading your mind? Hmmmm....

atlee · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:41pm

Just sayin

Not saying happening this weekend but, one Monday Morning you are going to see gold up $100 or more and silver up more than $2. That day feels very close. Just sayin

OC15 · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:43pm

More WB in reply to their own post today

You always have to be nervous dealing with The Morgue. If Greece blows up this weekend, we wouldnt be surprised to see the Dow open down 1000 and silver is back under $36. Of course within 2 days silver will be back over $40 and within a week be back at $50.

On the other hand, we can also see the scenario where Greece blows up this weekend and silver opens up at $46 and closes right under $50 this Monday. In other words, The Morgue can slam silver under the guise that everything else is falling too even though the news should be good for silver.

Look at what happened to gold when the SNB pegged its currency to the Euro. Gold got clocked when it should have soared.

If Greece does default this weekend, then silver will be rallying this quarter no doubts about it.

Tom L · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:43pm

@Chicken

The PoSX is rising because the EURO is in serious trouble. The USDX is a weighted average of the exchange rates of the USD vs. a number of currencies. The EURO is 57% of the value of the USDX, and that exchange rate has moved from $1.45 to $1.36 in two weeks.

The dollar is not 'strong' the dollar is stronger than the EURO. That is all.

If the dollar was strong Gold would be selling off. That disconnect between the USDX and Gold started a while ago.

If anything would be a proxy for USD strength vs. Gold it would be the TYX or the 30 year bond. 

Ta,

¤ · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:48pm

POSX

That could be. Seems more like a flight to perceived safety from decades of MOPE and hope.

It seems that the Euro is dying quickly and the other major currencies are actively debasing and the U.S. isn't doing so in a obvious manner, yet. Something is going to come out of EuroLand after the market closes or this weekend. The market must sense it.

Everyone running to the USD is still clinging to the hope that it is a safe haven based on the lack of anything else (paper) being considered safe today. What a rude awakening this is going to be for a lot of people when TSHTF in the POSX after the Euro situations clears itself up.

What I hoped would happen is happening...that gold is rising as we go into the close after being mostly down and then neutral on the day. A strong finish.

No one wants to be left without a risk trade hedge going into the weekend.

Nick Elway · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:51pm

@ScottJ Rand Paul in 2016

Thanks for the video of Rand Paul's response to the jobs plan

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/26935#comment-26935

May the USA still exist and be ready for Rand Paul in 2016.

¤ · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:52pm

Atlee knows something or someone

...just sayingwink

It does feel close at hand. One well placed communique with the wrong (or right) wording and we'll see $2000 and $50 on Sunday p.m. or Monday a.m.

Good call.

silver foil hat · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:52pm

lemmeee guess

London Fix is coming up.....

BTFD!

surfeitndearth OC15 · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:53pm

@ OC15

"The guiding principle of ruling elites was, and still is: When change threatens to rule, then the rules are changed." - Michael Parenti

Tom L · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:54pm

Doug Wead on Ron Paul

https://ht.ly/6q38k

The most significant happening at the Wednesday night debate occurred just before and after. And that was a national television buy of Ron Paul commercials. This is what angers Rick Perry and this is what strikes fear into the hearts of the establishment. What if Ron Paul pulls a Reagan and goes directly to the people? That is why the next Ron Paul moneybomb will be watched with rapt attention. It will tell more about the future of this campaign than any of the debates.

Wead is now a part of Paul's staff and it's a very good thing. If Ron gets the funds to do real national ad buys he will upset their apple cart pretty frickin' quick.

Ta,

joe rocker · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:58pm

The dollar is strong because

The dollar is strong because that's all there is left. When TSHTF, run to the biggest, baddest guy you know. 

The Swissy pegged to the dollar because they were TOLD to peg to the dollar (IMO). 

Everything has changed...the threats to the dollar are removed or in the process of being removed. The PMs are being kept down through "raids"...people just give up after a few ass whoopings and the market stays down. Obama calls for almost a trillion $s and "nothing"? No outrage? Fuck it...the can is getting kicked again. Prepare as you should for the "endgame", but be assured, everything that CAN be done to keep the status quo is/will be done to keep the status quo. There really isn't any limit to debt as long as everyone is willing to play and ocassionally have the rules changed on them.

I bought the dollar today...UUP...call me crazy but someone posted a link about "The King" coming back...king dollar...and it IS the king...a still VERY powerful king. Strong enough to force nations to commit suicide along with the rest of us. It's been in the 90s not that long ago...I'm betting they'll get it there again. They HAVE to let the dollar rise to get/keep the momentum going into US assetts again. They're smart bastards.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all cash...just dipping my toe into a possible big dollar rally. And waiting on the "Wurd from the Turd" ro BTFD in the metals again.

Good luck to you all!

(what's with the spell checker? No right click? and that hideous monster that tried to load when you click "abc" above is nasty looking)

Darth Smoker · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:59pm

The Swiss

Individual Physical Gold ownership is common in Switzerland. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGVlNAYFURk

Gun Ownership is high in Switzerland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Switzerland

Better off than the average American

Shill · Sep 9, 2011 - 12:59pm

Thanks, shill

Or at least consider the sponsors

FriedEggs · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:08pm

Obama

wants people in South Korea to be driving Fords... and Chevy's...

*random*

Fried(e)

Larry · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:10pm

The Red Herring default smells...

Greece has their problems sure enough. How about Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, California, Michigan, New Jersey? Meanwhile the MSM is taking the opportunity to get busy jumping up and down pointing at Greece and bleating about a possible Greek default being the reason for the Dow selloff and the sky falling. Per their instructions from on high.

If there was any intelligence or integrity in mainstream financial journalism, the word "Greece" would have been replaced by "Western World" right in front of the word "default". This headline should have appeared back in 2007 and reported on since. Instead, it's been MOPE, spin, lies, market manipulation, Fed printing, Central Bank and Treasury shell games, political cowardice, covert elite coups and Red Herrings all over the world.

Some of us have known, generally, how this movie ends for some time now. Maybe one day the MSM will realize it or have the conscience to report it. Probably not until all hell breaks loose and they have to hide in their broadcast studio bunkers due to angry mobs waiting for them in the street... where they will be shown the great displeasure of their complete failure to provide honest information entrusted to them by the public.

More so for those on Wall Street, in Washington and Central Banks that have committed, allowed or engineered the global financial genocide to come. 

I'll pray that no victim of the massive fraud and theft of life savings loses it and commits violence upon these useful idiots, PR tools, corrupt politicians or wicked bankers. That would surely give the government "leaders" just cause to remove most of our freedoms in the ensuing "crackdown". 

SuperManny · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:12pm

Greece - From the Viewpoint of Someone Who Was There

My significant other just returned from a trip to Greece visiting relatives. Her dad was born there so she has a lot of cousins, aunts,uncles, etc.

It's pretty bad over there. People have lost faith in government, so they don't pay taxes. They look at paying taxes as 'optional' or for the 'rich people'. The residents are not stupid, they all know a default is coming, in fact her aunt encouraged her to come visit 'before October' because *it* was probably gonna happen in Oct. She didn't elaborate on what *it* was, but it seems to be common knowledge... an accepted fact that 'it' was going to happen and it was too late to do anything about it.

What impressed [or depressed] her the most was the attitude of hopelessness especially among young people. Most of them don't work because they can't find a job; and everything is outrageously expensive. The only people who seem to have any money are the older retired folks, who are drawing lavish retirement benefits from the government.

Everything costs more in Greece; for instance they were going to rent a car so they wouldn't have to rely on public transportation, but the cost of renting for 10 days was around 900.00 euros. surprise

Vincent · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:17pm

Obama

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Economists gave generally positive reviews toPresident Obama's jobs plan Friday, with some estimating that at least 1 million jobs could be added in the next year if Congress passes the package.

The payroll tax holiday for workers and small businesses was cited specifically for having a relatively good "bang for the buck." And that part of the plan may have the most bipartisan support.

"This additional spending capacity in the hands of consumers should continue to foster improvements in aggregate domestic demand. And ultimately, it is demand and demand alone that will lead to more business hiring," said Russell Price, senior economist for Ameriprise Financial Services.

Price estimates the increased payroll tax holiday for workers by itself is likely to add between 750,000 to 1 million jobs, and that the new break on payroll taxes for employers could add an additional 100,000 to 200,000 jobs.

He added that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, could get a 1.5 percentage point boost as well.

Macroeconomic Advisors, a St. Louis research firm, estimates that payrolls would grow by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and another 800,000 by the end of 2013, if the package passed as proposed. It is looking for a 1.3% rise in GDP.

Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, said even if the impact to the economy is short lived, the jobs plan should be passed.

"Given the elevated risk of recession the U.S. faces today, additional near-term stimulus reduces that risk," said Prakken. "Given the deleterious effects of long-term unemployment on an individual's skills and long-term employment prospects, speeding a return to employment is both individually and socially beneficial."

Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, is even more bullish, forecasting a 1.9 million job boost and a 2% lift for GDP if the package is passed as proposed.

Zandi said while pushing more money into the economy is the key, passing the jobs package could also provide a much needed boost of confidence at a time when the economy teeters on the edge of a new recession due to so much uncertainty.

"Investors, consumers and businesses appear shell-shocked by recent events," he said. "Confidence normally reflects economic conditions; it does not shape them. Yet at times, particularly during economic turning points, cause and effect can shift."

"Sentiment can be so harmed that businesses, consumers and investors freeze up, turning a gloomy outlook into a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is one of those times," he added.

But others aren't expecting as big of an impact.

David Wyss, an economist at Brown University, expects only about 600,000 additional jobs if the package passes. And Jeff Joerres, CEO of staffing firm ManpowerGroup (MANFortune 500), said while there's a lot to like about the proposal, it shouldn't been viewed as the solution to a weak economy and labor market.

"We should be realistic about what it actually can do," he said. "When it comes down to it, the only way to create massive amounts of hiring...is sustainable demand for products and services. This is not going to create that."

Economists say one big problem with assessing the program is figuring out its chance of passage in the face of Republican criticism.

Keith Hembre, chief economist for Nuveen Asset Management, said he thinks the package could lift GDP by 1.5 percentage points and add 1 million jobs, but doubts Congress will approve Obama's proposal.

"It seems much more like a wish list than anything that is likely become law," he said.

-- CNNMoney's Poppy Harlow contributed to this report To top of page

Tom L · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:18pm

Oh look the ESF

is supporting the S&P at 1154. Wow, didn't see that coming? 

Ta,

Vincent · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:22pm

Bullard

Fed's Bullard says potential Greek default could be contained

exiledbear · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:29pm
Ferd Torgerson · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:29pm

Interesting Interview with Jim Rogers on CNBC

https://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000044747

This isn't the full interview.

He's long commodities (including agriculture) and PMs.

Long the dollar even though he thinks it is a disaster and believes Bernanke is already printing more money.

jlee2027 SuperManny · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:30pm

re:Greece - From the Viewpoint of Someone Who Was There

People have lost faith in government, so they don't pay taxes. They look at paying taxes as 'optional' or for the 'rich people'. The residents are not stupid, they all know a default is coming

A natural response to the debt slavery system is that people move to the black market. Money is being hidden to protect it when STHF - that's what everyone is waiting for.

It's happening everywhere to some degree; not just Greece.

TitanAe · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:35pm

I'm thinking

Big selloff at the end of the day!!!

Tom L TitanAe · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:37pm

@Titan

I'm thinking the exact opposite. Now that they've painted the tape for the 'official' close. The metals will be free to rise into what looks to be a tumultuous weekend. The rally may not start in the HUI until 3:00 but I think there's an excellent chance of gold to $1885 and the HUI to 638 by the end of the day.

Ta,

beardeus · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:39pm

Need help w/Options

I am new to options but not new to investing in the stock market.

Do you think 54 January calls for SLV are safe?

What about something like 72 January calls?

I am confident that silver will go higher but when I'm not sure.

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Shill · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:42pm

I am with you Tom...I figured

I am with you Tom...I figured a 2:00pm eastern time reversal.

TitanAe · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:42pm

@Tom L

Very possible !!! PM may rally I was more or less referring to equities ie large caps such as suncor etc...

regards

Tom L · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:45pm

@Titan

Yeah, the Dow? I can easily see a selloff into the close. I almost asked you what you were referring to before I responded. I probably should have. :)

Ta,

redwood · Sep 9, 2011 - 1:46pm

The metal stocks have

The metal stocks have resisted the pms' downturns several times today. I also expect a rally by the end of the day.

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