Chew On This One

Maybe it's the massive blizzard about to hit New York and Boston? I don't know but the markets are so boring today that I thought I'd disappear down the rabbit hole for a moment or two.

Part of the reason that things are so quiet today is the general lack of news. The only noteworthy item was the release of the December U.S. trade deficit. It shrunk. This, of course, caused Reuters to cheer, happily proclaiming that perhaps Q4 GDP won't be as awful as first projected. ( Of course, this is silly. The U.S. is a consumption-based economy and when imports fall, we are consuming less. And, as usual, ZH provides a better analysis (

The gold market yawned at the "news" and that, usually, is that. However, I soon thereafter received an email from a rather enlightened individual who noticed, contained within the Reuters story, was this little nugget: "Friday's data showed U.S. exports surged by $8.6 billion during the month, boosted by sales of industrial supplies, including a $1.2 billion increase of non-monetary gold."

Hmmmm. Well that's interesting, now isn't it? Why on earth would the U.S. see a $1.2B increase in "non-monetary gold" exports? (The concept that any type of gold is "non-monetary", notwithstanding.) The alert emailer further suggested that:

"When the deficit shrinks, it is a sign that the US creditors are not accepting the USD as a means for conducting trade.
The US has to pay with something else (oil/gold) and curtail imports.
 So what happened in Dec?
 Imports – largely driven by autos (likely to be Germans) and oil dropped in total by 2.7%
Exports – largely driven by oil exports and gold increased by 2.1%
Someone is asking for payment in oil and gold and not USD is the message.
One can take a guess but my gut tells me it is either China or one of the non-friendly oil producers asking for gold."

OK, now we're onto something. it possible that this is finally beginning to happen? We know that plenty of other nations are transacting gold-for-oil deals. Just google "Turkey Iran gold" and see what you get. Anyway, the timing of this fits well. QE∞ was announced back in September and this is data for the very next quarter, Q4. Again...hmmm. 

Now, here's one that, admittedly, is a bit of a reach. Reading these emails this morning reminded me of an email I received earlier this week. An alert Turdite caught this on the facebook feed of one of his relatives who is a flight attendant. This particular person was simply perturbed by the delay in her flight schedule and posted this seemingly innocuous bit of information:

"Dubai~Take 2
 Yesterday was a very long day that ended in the disappointment of not getting on my flight to Dubai due to weight restrictions! Yeah, isn't that a real kicker!! I was #10 on the standby list and they kept calling us one by one and then~bam! Stopped after #9! Even with quite a few empty seats left on the plane, the cargo in the belly was so heavy (and valuable monetarily) that they couldn't chance adding more standby passengers."

A flight to Dubai with cargo that is "so heavy and valuable monetarily"? Hmmmm. Well that's interesting, too.

Look, I know it's all anecdotal and, once you disappear down the rabbit hole, you can easily hang yourself by the rope you use connecting all of the dots. But I thought this was interesting enough to share with you. Lots of possible implications to ponder. Knock yourself out and have a great day.



Quisp's picture

Dr Jerome

You can also choose to go with the lower down payment (and PMI), then drop your extra fiat on the loan to bring your loan/equity ratio below that which requires PMI. The bank won't tell you this, but you can then drop PMI because your loan no longer meets the criteria. I did this years ago. 

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Turd- What I think happened on that flight

ag1969's picture

Quisp, PMI

I'd be careful with that, the bank will probably require another appraisal, and they are not cheap.

SRSrocco's picture



Hello everyone.  Sorry about being a real PUTZ and not producing any articles or many blog posts in the past month or so.  Finally got serious and have been very busy putting together all the information for the site. 

Jim Willie was king enough to chat with me on the phone a few times and put some of my work in his most recent JAN PAID REPORTS.  Even though there have been several people who told me I should start a site... ole WILLIE pushed me over the edge.

The reason why I wanted to thrown in a post here... I can see how lousy the SENTIMENT has become in the gold and silver community.  THANK GOD, I now understand that:


By that I mean in the form of TRADE-ABLE ENERGY.  I have had some email replies telling me that I was a bit off and there is no energy in a 1 oz Silver Coin -- even though some may believe that... there sure is.  Matter of fact.. most of what we do is mostly energy.

Gold & Silver will be the best stores of value because they are stores of trade-able energy.  If a person does not see that and they are on the FENCE about the precious metals... this negative sentiment will surely drive them to sell.  This has got to be the most frustrating parts of understanding this principle -- seeing what others can't.  And knowing they are making a huge mistake.

What is taking place in the MINERS is just SINFUL.  The Gold & Silver miners are really the money creators of the world.  To see banks get away with the facade of creating money makes me sick.  It's like stealing the MERITS of a fallen soldier who deserves the Purple Heart for instance.

The PENDULUM always swings back -- even though we might not be patient enough to see it. 


Quisp's picture


It didn't when I did it.... but I admit that was about 15 years ago. I also did it within 2-3 months of the first payment. Perhaps it would be prudent to ask up front.

Occasnltrvlr's picture

@ P4tF

NO WAY did you just do that!!  Sooo funny!

Who are you, WB?

Bollocks's picture

Excellent advice...

Pegasus's picture

Ron Paul, Ralph Nader agree on 'Progressive-Libertarian Alliance

It could happen. Libertarians & Progressives share a lot of common principles. Let's work on that, not the divisiveness. The only way we are going to have a chance of regaining our liberty is to work together for the many values that we do have in common.

As Ralph said at the end of this video: Information is the currency of democracy.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Thanks Occasnltrvlr

No, I am not WB-  he is a true professional.  I am just an amateur who enjoys messing around with these things occasionally. 

old tradesman's picture

      | David Stockman: 'The

      | David Stockman: 'The United States Of Insolvency' »


CEO Tells CNBC: 'Big 3 Rating Agencies Are Still Selling Out'

Nothing has changed. Kroll torches S&P.

Jules Kroll, CEO of a bondicon1.png rating start-up, discusses the S&P case with David Faber.

"Many of the practices you're seeing in the DOJ's lawsuit with S&P are still going on, shaping things in order to get more business. The major ratings agencies are still selling out. S&P needs a great lawyer. The game is not over for Moody's and Fitch, either."

"It's very clear from this lawsuit that S&P will have years of difficulty defending what is really unconscionable behavior. Those of us in the field understand that this has been taking place for a long time. This industry was out of control and this lawsuit calls them into question in a serious way."

"This investigation was going on for 18 months before the credit downgrade, how dare S&P suggest that they were singled out because they gave a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating."

Interview details at CNBC...

Swineflogger's picture

TFTD (Be All That You Can Be)

California Lawyer's picture

Current Thoughts

I’ve been swamped with work.  I have been reading all the posts, though, but unfortunately, I just caught up.  Since I was not current on the reading, I just did not want to waste space with untimely thoughts.
Anyhow, I have a few moments this am, and wanted to share some observations:
(1) Turd and this blog: Turd is selfless, and we should all emulate him.  He posts here, day after day, giving us his amazing insights, for free, and only asks that we prepare for the end of the Keynesian experiment.  That is simply astounding in this day and age of “what’s in it for me?”  Thank you from the bottom of my heart, Turd.
(2) Silver shortage: From a fundamental perspective, I have serious misgivings about concluding there is an actual silver metal shortage.  On paper, in the paper metals markets, I do agree that there is a shortage of supply at these prices, witnessed by huge demand on the dips.  Why is that?  Why does not physical silver price rise in equilibrium to match demand?  It is easy to conclude that there is simply no demand at a higher price.  Fine.  But, what if there is no supply?  Would that not explain the effort to cap price on the paper markets to suppress price?  Sure.  But, hold it right there.
What evidence in the physical metal market exists to prove lack of supply?  I am NOT seeing “Cash for Silver” stores popping up everywhere, like that for Gold.  Why not, IF there was this massive physical silver shortage?  
I see the model real simply.  Regular folks will not rush to sell their tarnished silverware and broken silver jewelry for $30 or so per ounce, when they will only get half of that.  Why would someone sell their silverware for $10 or $20?  Too much effort, too little upside.  
But, when silver moves to $100 an ounce, THEN people will start unloading their silverware and jewelry at the Cash for Silver shops, just like what happened when gold hit $1,000/ounce.
So, manipulation to keep paper price low, probably by naked shorting by JPM et al. (Turd, please stop spouting off about how you know, just be quiet until you can tell us what you know, okay?  Pretty please, with sugar on top?), is actually more useful for the time being to those in charge rather than an effort to stockpile scare silver by opening pawn shops to take the silver at a discount.
Simply, accumulation of physical silver is not yet at hand, and as such, there is NO merit to any argument of an actual, fundamental supply and demand-based silver shortage argument.
Until the folks realize that silverware, etc., can be sold for pretty pieces of paper, at a sufficient price to justify the effort, then there is simply no real shortage.  
Just my $0.02.
(3) Societal unrest: too many stories of doom.  Too many stories of war, unrest, instability, all of which are now in the mainstream news, and not just being discussed in the blogosphere.  This is MOPE, big time, and I fear something of major importance is in the works.  I am on high alert. I mean look at the latest happenings around my neck of the woods: Rogue ex-cop on murderous rampage, LAPD shoots innocent civilians, which will almost certainly end with NO criminal charges filed against any of the shooters [Praetorian Guards, immune from consequences in pursuit of the King’s orders . . .], massive taxpayer funded manhunt, ongoing, including around-the-clock, 24/7 overtime, helicopters, SWAT teams [where was this effort as to any of the dozens and dozens of murders occurring to civilians in San Bernardino, Riverside, Pomona, Ontario, etc., murders of children, etc., or any of the many, many white collar bankster frauds ONGOING to this day?].
Look at the news coming out of the courts. In Florida, the Supreme Court has just ruled that fraudulent documents supporting a fake foreclosure do not warrant any punishment if the case is voluntarily dismissed.  That means, fake documents CAN support a fake foreclosure case, unless the bank gets caught, then the bank need only dismiss and refile with better fakes–no harm no foul.  Is this the rule of law, or something else?  If there is no rule of law, then we live in a centrally-planned governmental state, call it monarchy, dictatorship, martial law, whatever.  The effect upon freedom is the same.
Get out of the system to the extent possible.  Convert all paper wealth to physical goods or precious metals.  Look at the recent activity re gun control.  Want a semi-auto now?  Good luck.  Too late.  How about ammo?  Want to acquire a sizeable quantity of regular handgun ammo?  Too late.  What commodity is next to become scarce and only available at a much higher price in fiat?  
Acquire REAL skills, that may be useful in a new system.  Find a skill that is fun, that you are good at, and get extra good at it.  It will save your life later I have no doubt.  Me, I am honing my gun skills.  Firearms instructor.  That is fun, useful, and hopefully in demand from all of the recent craziness where lots of firearms were purchased, and many now need to learn real skills.
Organizational skills, leadership, communications, complex decision-making, these are all part of my make up.  I have no doubt these will be useful later, but I am not relying upon them to eat when the collapse occurs.
I also know how to garden and grow food, build fine wood furniture, and pilot aircraft and helicopters.  Who knows.
Selco’s SHTF blog has some excellent tips from firsthand stories.  
There is NO DAMN HOPE for a system-saving change of direction.  The collapse sequence has started long ago, and we are living in the end times.  There WILL be a new system that arises.  Prepare, prepare, prepare, dear God I am begging all of you!
I just picked up a 1995 Jeep Wrangler.  It is my bug out vehicle.  4x4, 4" lift, brand new engine, tranny, rims, tires, trailer hitch, room rack, extra gas cans, otherwise, ugly as sin replete with a horribly ugly exterior [original paint, which has oxidized and looks like shi-].  I’m being extra vigilant, and I trust nothing I hear on the mainstream press.  The only use for the press is to watch and listen for clues as to when it all collapses.  I hope to God there is more time, but for now, the fuse has been lit for a long time, and I am completely convinced that the explosion will occur.  
I have also undertaken to create in myself the finest physical conditioning I can.  I am embarking on a two year training plan to run my first 100 mile ultramarathon.  I want to have superior endurance, to be able to sustain constant effort, for days on end.  It takes a long time for the body to adapt, and I am on my quest.  I have already lost 18 pounds since Jan. 1, 2013.  I am firmly committed to the paleo-primal method.  I have ditched ALL GMO foods.  I stopped eating grains, rice, and anything processed.  I have more energy now than ever before.  I am not hopelessly addicted to high fructose corn syrup and the rest of the franken foods.  
I shop at farmers’ markets, eat organic, non-gmo food, and have stopped feeding the corporate franken food producers.  No more.
I am walking the walk for better or worse.
I have moved beyond hoping for a solution to avert a collapse, and am now awaiting the collapse and the solution arising thereafter.  Call me a tin foil wearing nut, fine.  I am prepared and getting even more so day by day.
foggyroad's picture

Bingo Board of directors at Mining companies

@meegorengi said..

"I place the blame on PM manipulation not only on J PIG MORGUE and their cohorts who have huge short positions but also on  major mining companies and producers, SLW, ABX, NEM, GG etc. Each one of these companies must be allowing total manipulation of their ‘commodity’.

When you want to suppress the price of gold and silver to make your paper game last, you have to be able to control the supply side of the equation too.    

It is plausible that the EE has the majority of the shares of these companies and make the final decision on them. That would also mean that the executives that run these companies may be stooges of the EE.

This shenanigan of manipulating PM prices will continue as long the mining companies keep producing and delivering at low prices!"


ABX board of directors during their 'highly unprofitable', huge gold hedge sale days' was an interesting cast of characters, as are the current board of say, New Gold, for instance.

Sort of a 'who's who', populating the Board Rooms.

The SLW founder Gary..... retired, and I noted, a persistent decline in share valuation, coincidence, maybe, but bears scrutiny.

Since around Aug 2011, the Miner shares have been on the receiving end of Algo's targeting and pounding them down to 2008 or lower valuations.

There is no doubt in My mind, that this is a purposeful policy instituted via the same 'Entity ', that backs JPM and it's silver short shenannigens,  it is criminal behavior and has reduced My portfolio by 45% - 60%.

Thats, real money , My money, and it is being stolen. 

Just as Option expiry causes stocks to sink strangely, only to rise miraculously, afterward, no one thinks this odd or thinks ,maybe someone should take a look at this strange phenomena. Duh.

What are these pricks getting paid for?

IMO it is theft, and the SEC, see nothing, or choose not look for reasons known only to themselves.

I feel, I know what that reason is but I can't spell it out, but its initials are OPTICS.

Crooks and Thieves, we are besotted by them.

Such are the ways of everyone who is greedy for unjust gain; it takes away the life of its possessors.( Proverbs 1:19)

Green Lantern's picture

Re: Cyber Attacks

  • seems to be a lot of hacking going on. Is it true that the Feds were hacked? whos doing all of this. newspapers and banks?  
¤'s picture


Some of the stuff on here is disjointed and bordering on adolescence.

I'll leave it up to the lurkers to chime in at this point if they care to or are even  online on a normally busy Friday afternoon. Otherwise feel free to mop the front hall with whatever evil fearing comments you have afterwards. It's wrecking the site imho if you even care to hear this posters opinion of it. 

It's become a game to some of you that you need to keep repeating thematically over and over on a daily basis. I won't engage it any longer as it seems to be how this boat tips nowadays. 

That negative unbalanced outlook doesn't need to be mine on a TGIF (or anytime) and I may be mistaken but I'm pretty sure most people out there don't share the doom/gloom parade on here more often then not. I might be wrong and the boat now tips heavily to one side at this point.

So be it.

Good luck with it and congrats on establishing that negative beach-head on here. The evolution (messaging) of the site from what it once was to where its at was inevitable, necessary and will pose to be it's greatest challenge moving forward. Evolution is a two-way street.

Perpetual fear is a weakness and it's a negative feedback loop and doesn't provoke much thought or generate lots of interaction by the looks of it. So be it.

Edit: Having said all was in no way a poke at TF and his site. The man has never gone negative on me or ever really given me a hard time. To that end he has been a most gracious host of which I have greatly appreciated it.yes

That needed to be said.

Keg's picture


bucktooth's picture

OT: Dr J -- a little late ….

The PMI (private mortgage insurance) that a bank charges for a down payment of less than 20% on a mortgage loan is very difficult to get them to relinquish.   They say, once you have made enough payments to qualify for 20% equity, they will stop charging.  However, by the time you paid 20% of the value of the property, they will determine you need a new appraisal.  With the housing market, it is very likely that the new appraisal won’t meet their demands.  Not to mention, you have to do the paperwork and pay for the appraisal.  They certainly won’t be proactive and automatically drop the PMI.  Hell, they let folks pay PMI throughout the life of the loan unless a customer requests them to drop it.

In other words, (and this is just my opinion), if you do purchase the property and can put the 20% up front, then it is worth doing.

Mickey's picture

@DrJerome re: mortgages

I just refinanced my house-

over the past 3 years I have pulled money out of my IRA and bought some things we stack, and I wanted to keep private.

The bank seeing the WD (and tax payments) believes that without a trail I needed that money to live on. So it woudl not grant me a 15 year mortgage at 3%.

What they did a month later though was grant me a 30 year mortgage at 3% with a 10 year ARM. No diff to me but are they screwed up--they thought I could not handle the payment.

Now I will take the money saved by an lower rate newly extended 30 year mortgage and buy a coin every month- or a roll or two of silvers. Hopefully pay off mortgage in 5 years with appreciated PM.

here is an industry that screwed the pooch 6 -7 years ago and now is still looking at the wrong stuff.

Swineflogger's picture

@California Lawyer - Thank You For All You Do

Recent snapshot of Turd and friends logging a podcast with Jim Wille

Stock_Canines's picture


I agree wholeheartedly. It is destroying this site. Furthermore, I use to refer this site to family, friends, colleagues. No longer. Can't afford for my professional or personal reputation to be impacted by those that scream doom/gloom or conspiracy day in and day out.

Mickey's picture

reported attack page and google

I thought maybe google was focusing on PM sites.

Nope--I got that message while at you tube yesterday

Still, does not mean that we are not being tracked and some computerized file if not sitting out there with out info.

Our tendencies here are to go to similar sites.

I used to think I was inconsequential in the larger picture, perhaps not.

opalboy's picture

here is a report from a scrap buyer


Scrap buying has really slowed down in the last year, I used to turn my scrap weekly or bi weekly, but in the last 6 months maybe once a month, I think that most of the folks who needed money have sold all thier gold and silver. And I think one reason we don't see that many We BUY SILVER signs is people know the gold people will buy silver also. Also we used to have "motel buyers" every month for about 3 days, no more.  Now I believe that if gold and silver go up to the highs, it will spur more selling, from people who just see a high gold and silver price. Any other buyers out there experiencing the same?

keep stacking, keep the faith,

you know there aren't that many of us.

Stock_Canines's picture

I know many here and

I know many here and especially Turd himself espouse that QE can never end, but obviously some disagree. I wonder what the posts here will say if the Fed announces - regardless if it be 2013, 2014 or even 2015 - that QE is ending?

crg's picture

qE not for long

So an article on ZHedge shows up saying QE might end before unemployment drops below 7%. Charles Evans says so. Some big dove says time to end. Did i miss the awesome recovery the last few years? Lol...QE ends as soon as KWN stops saying "MASSIVE SHORT QUEEZE COMING."......

The man who stole a leopard's picture

Iran hacking...? maybe Ahmadinejad will tweet about it

An important message from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad...

Mickey's picture

negativity here

it's easy to be caught up in it.

But I bet a nice 2 week rally in the metals would change that.

It has not been all that easy recently--and the vets probably recall past periods like this--2008 for example.

I still ask others to show me how all our obligations will be met-funded and unfunded liability obligations. Only 2 answers thus far: we really default, or default by inflation.

Neither one will be fun but no alternatives given.

Fundamentals win out--they do-you just need some patience/conviction. My guess is in the end we will be the big winners.

Unless of course we get some fiscal "religion". But then, how will our leaders explain that not only are the enetitlemnet programs fubar, but they  the elected leaders have done zippo the last 5 years or more, to do any fix.

How do they explain that its been two years almost since The Bowles Simpson duo told us what had to be done and we are still kicking the can down the road.

How ironic was the Cheny: deficits don't matter, to Obamas 2006 senate speech about the irresponsibility of needing a debt ceiling hike, to where we are today?

we have some real serious financial, economic and societal problems (duh) and the first step to resolution is to be able to discuss the problems and causes.

Where is that discussion?

O guess hope we can spend and eventually it will kick start the economy.

However, waiting on a sidetrack to derail us is Obamacare.  Many expecting that failure is intentional to get to national health care which will become a bigger boondoogle. Lets face it, not much the govt has done was resulted in good outcomes--Fannie and Freddie, Student loans, Post office, Social Sec and Medicare and medicaid and Prescription drugs (unless you are on the receiving end of the wasteful spending), Pension Guarantee Trust, FDIC, GSA---what else. 

Govt is like a black hole sucking everything up.

California Lawyer's picture

Rise of the Machines? Anyone Noticing?

From the article, describing remotely piloted, humanless, helicopters:

OPTIMUS will give KMAX the ability to control itself while a human maintains supervisory control. This approach also has potential for giving other unmanned aircraft this capability and not just K-MAX.

Image is here:

The helicopter has the ability to control itself.  Holy crap!  This is right out of the Terminator.  Does anyone else see the possibilities?

Here's one:

Operations in CONUS [continental United States] can now occur without violations of the posse commitatus act.  If "supervisory control" of the unmanned helicopter is by NON military, then, cannot the remotely-piloted helicopter patrol major cities?  

Can the remotely-piloted helicopter not also be armed with weapons, or loudspeakers, or surveillance cameras?

All of this defense spending has lead to technological advances, for sure.  But at what costs to freedom and liberty?

If helicopters can control themselves, then other machines can too, for sure.  Like what?  Highway toll booths, replete with scanners, x ray machines, engine disablers, etc.?  Border security to prevent human movements, or currencies, or gold, or goods?

All of this is right out there, wide open, for all to see.  

The questions are not if, or why, but when.

Prepare accordingly.

[edit from last post: the license plate I got for the Jeep is MOLLABE.  Like it?]

Mickey's picture

QE might end

but without a recovery, and without printing, our dollar is shot anyway (with or without printing), Just the interest in debt and theunfilled promises will kill us.

Just sit and watch in slow motion until the day its no longer slow motion.

I Run Bartertown's picture

The Amazing, Resilient


It's astounding! Every few months we get the same clique (Stonewall Censorship Uprising 2013 edition) proclaiming the demise of the site because not enough people are 'feelin the groovy positive energy, bro'...

And yet the site is still here. I think I know why it is, but I'm absolutely baffled why the chronic malcontents (who, ironically, are only bitching incessantly because they're so upbeat and cheerful indecision) still are. It is so utterly classless to use TF's own site to bash his product with insulting posts, constant demands, unsolicited advice, and snarky little sigs.

At least this go-round, it's only attempting to control discussion (boatman was so right - ALWAYS the marxist side of the argument stifling speech and thought). Usually there's talk of a cabal...and the need for a good round of banning people to keep things 'groovy'.  A long list of great posters has been run off. Usually when they had the audacity to get hat-tipped by others enough to disturb the 'proper' Leaderboard order. No coincidence that Mr. Fix is in the crosshairs (whether I agree with his posts or not). Their Waterloo was the massive attempt to ban Dagney, but she had the balls (haha - remember that?) to stay anyway. I hope everyone else does too.

California Lawyer's picture


I wanted to thank you for your posts.  That Venn diagram was awesome.  It should be required reading.  Thanks again.

I really appreciate your posts, as well.  Please keep them coming.

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